SHOWNOTES

In this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, tying together US fiscal policy, oil and gas fundamentals, and the cash-hungry AI build-out at Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and more. They also dive into GLP-1 pricing wars, ophthalmology upstarts, and how post-COVID cash piles are being spent in biotech.

[00:00] Welcome, format & Cash Flow Memo overview

[00:20] Quick disclaimer (informational only)

[00:30] Exhibit C – Oil demand, OPEC and a “mature” China

Hunt reviews OPEC’s restrained production increases and how slower global liquid fuel demand growth, especially from a now-mature China, is extending the time needed to work off surplus barrels. They discuss why macro risks (Iran, Russia) may still keep WTI around $60 despite sluggish demand.

[02:20] Exhibit B – US natural gas, LNG and power demand

The crew breaks down booming LNG demand versus relentless US gas supply growth from the Permian, Haynesville and Marcellus. Negative Waha hub pricing, pipeline constraints to the Gulf Coast, coal’s temporary share gain in power, and the likely return of gas-fired growth post-2026 all feature.

[03:34] Exhibit A – US deficits, debt-to-GDP and the dollar

Hunt walks through US government revenues, spending and a projected $400–500B deficit reduction in 2026, contrasting America’s path with China, Europe and Japan. They highlight how stabilizing debt-to-GDP around ~100% and a potentially stronger dollar could support capital markets.

[04:54] Apple, Siri & the Gemini deal: renting AI instead of building it (Memo p.1)

Hunt, Jason and Mike dig into Apple’s decision to license Google’s Gemini model to upgrade Siri, while keeping the model on Apple-controlled servers for privacy and antitrust reasons. They contrast Apple’s historically low ~$12B CapEx with Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, and debate whether running large language models will finally force Apple to “spend like a hyperscaler.”

[07:00] Hardware vs software at Apple, and the next CEO profile (Memo p.1)

Mike recalls Apple’s earlier need to buy NeXT for its OS, drawing a parallel to today’s LLM lag. They argue that under Jobs, software quality led hardware, whereas under Cook, hardware has leapt ahead while software (Siri, iOS polish) has slipped—shaping why a hardware-centric leader like John Ternus may be the logical next CEO.

[09:00] Google’s incentives, Apple’s privacy stance & why not just use Google’s cloud? (Memo p.1 – AAPL, GOOGL)

The hosts question whether a $1B annual fee truly compensates Google for tailoring Gemini to Apple silicon and serving it from Apple data centers. They explain why Apple can’t simply run AI off Google’s cloud without undermining its security narrative and App Store defense.

[11:00] TSMC, Nvidia vs Apple and the chip supply pecking order (Memo p. 1, 3 – AAPL TSM NVDA)

Hunt quizzes Jason on who is the bigger TSMC customer now—Apple or Nvidia—and how priority access to leading-edge nodes has shifted. They touch on AMD’s timing on new process nodes, hints of a historical feud between Steve Jobs and Jensen Huang, and why Apple still relies on laptop-class chips in its data centers.

[14:58] Harrow Health: retina focus and salesforce strategy shift (Memo p.20)

Turning to healthcare, the team revisits Harrow’s progress commercializing its ophthalmology portfolio, especially one drug with slower-than-expected uptake. Jason explains Harrow’s pivot to target retina surgeons more directly and sell a broader basket of products through a focused salesforce.

[15:54] GLP-1 wars: Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly on price (Memo p.19)

On page 19, they examine Novo Nordisk’s response to Lilly’s lead in GLP-1s, with Novo aggressively undercutting pricing on Ozempic/Wegovy to ~$199–349 per month for self-pay patients. Jason notes this is a rare corner of healthcare where competition and out-of-insurance purchasing have driven prices from ~$1,200 to ~$200 a month in just a year.

[17:09] Regeneron’s Eylea cliff and new eye-care competition (Memo p.19)

Mike outlines how Regeneron’s Eylea faces a wave of biosimilar competition, underwhelming uptake of Eylea HD, and new implant-based therapies that reduce injection frequency to every 6–12 months. They still respect Regeneron as a company, but highlight mounting pressure on this key franchise.

[18:12] Vertex: cystic fibrosis strength and non-opioid pain optionality (Memo p.15)

The conversation moves to Vertex’s healthy cystic fibrosis business and its potential upside from novel pain medicines awaiting clarity under the US “No Pain Act.” Jason emphasizes how reimbursement decisions could unlock broader coverage and meaningfully expand the addressable market.

[18:47] BioNTech vs Moderna: who kept their COVID cash? (Memo p.15)

Hunt contrasts BioNTech’s ~€14B cash hoard with Moderna’s reduced ~$4.5B balance, despite both enjoying COVID windfalls. He credits BioNTech’s more conservative founders—who famously still bike to work—as an example of capital discipline, and hints at a new analytical angle on both names reserved for a future episode.

[19:47] Mega-cap tech CapEx: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla (Memo pp.1–2)

Back on page 1, they compare Apple’s modest CapEx with Amazon’s staggering ~$110B spend and ~$90B R&D budget, plus Microsoft’s $70B CapEx. The hosts note that while free cash flow can look lower in the short run, these companies are plowing enormous sums into data centers and AI infrastructure.

[22:12] Oracle’s big bet on OpenAI (Memo p.2)

On the software page, they highlight Oracle’s ~$27B CapEx run rate and its heavy commitment to building data centers for OpenAI, despite having far less free cash flow (and more debt) than Microsoft or Amazon. This raises questions about how much balance-sheet strain Oracle can comfortably bear.

[22:44] Nvidia earnings preview, hyperscalers vs “Neo-Cloud” buyers (Memo p.3)

Turning to page 3, the team previews Nvidia’s post-close earnings, noting that hyperscalers now account for slightly more than half of Nvidia’s sales, including high-margin networking gear. Jason labels the rest of the customer base “Neo-Cloud”—banks like JPMorgan, big pharma R&D shops, government labs, research supercomputers and sovereign data centers worldwide.

[25:38] Nvidia margins, the “tax” on AI and how long it can last (Memo p.3)

They marvel at Nvidia’s ~$170B revenue run rate with over half dropping to free cash flow after CapEx, R&D and taxes. Jason will be watching gross margins closely to see if the “Nvidia tax” can hold as Blackwell ramps, networking mix shifts and capex budgets eventually hit limits.

[26:26] Wrap-up, next-week teaser & closing disclaimer

To dig into the full numbers, exhibits, and company-by-company cash flow detail discussed in this episode, download the latest Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. If you enjoy this format, please like, subscribe, and share the Telltales Podcast with a friend who loves deep-dive investing conversations.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the weekly Cash Flow Memo: oil, gas, and US government finances, then dive deep into Taiwan Semiconductor’s history and the future of chip manufacturing, before closing with tech headlines and high-impact healthcare updates. Along the way they connect physics, policy, and business models back to cash flows and the durability of different franchises.[00:00] Intro[00:20] Disclaimer[00:30] Exhibit C: Oil Demand Slows, Supply Investment in Focus[02:55] Exhibit B: Natural Gas, LNG & Power Demand[04:32] Exhibit A: US Deficit, Tariffs & Shutdown Drama[05:29] History of TSMC & Morris Chang’s Foundry Revolution[08:31] TSMC vs the Old Guard: From “Real Men Have Fabs” to Neutral Foundry (p. 3)[10:53] Apple, EUV & TSMC as a Geopolitical Chokepoint (p. 3)[13:45] The Future of Fabs: EUV vs X-Ray & Substrate’s Bet (p. 3)[17:20] Economics, Power Needs & Who Adopts X-Ray Fabs First (p. 3)[22:50] Tech News: Amazon’s Data Center Build-Out & AI Power Constraints (p. 1)[24:05] Uber + Nvidia Robotaxis & The AV “Three-Way Contest” (pp. 1, 3, 20)[25:10] Tesla FSD v13 Test Ride – Getting “Very Good” (p. 1)[25:31] Harrow: Lawsuit Overhang vs Branded-Drug Growth (p. 20)[27:30] Harrow’s Melt Pharmaceuticals Deal & Capital Allocation (p. 20)[28:57] Vertex: Kidney Disease Breakthrough & Fast-Track Timeline (p. 15)[31:16] Vertex’s Non-Opioid Pain Drug & Reimbursement Uncertainty (p. 15)[31:52] FDA Leadership & Regulatory Stability To keep up with future episodes of the Telltales Podcast, download the weekly Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe wherever you listen. If you’re enjoying these deep dives into cash-flow-driven investing across energy, technology, and healthcare, consider sharing the show with a friend or colleague.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES

This week we connect the dots across oil & gas markets, the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, and tech’s CapEx surge—then wrap with healthcare M&A and GLP-1 distribution shifts. Expect sharp takes, real numbers, and what it all means for cash flow and valuation.

[00:00] Intro

[00:20] Disclaimer

[00:30] Exhibit C: Oil—OPEC+ restraint & a flat curve

Oil hovers near $60 as OPEC+ (including Russia) keeps supply tight, flattening the forward curve. Limited monthly additions may be enough to hold prices and gradually curb non-OPEC supply growth.

[01:45] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—Term structure resilience

While near-dated gas has been choppy, the 2026 strip holds around ~$4, signaling longer-term support even as the front of the curve softens.

[02:03] Exhibit A: U.S. Fiscal—Deficit glidepath & the dollar

Targets to bring the deficit down from ~1.9T toward ~1.5T (with ~1.1T a better long-run anchor) would improve debt/GDP trajectory. With other major economies levering up, a relatively disciplined U.S. could re-strengthen the dollar.

[02:57] Stablecoins vs. Payment Rails—What actually threatens banks

Stablecoins (not Bitcoin) pose the nearer-term challenge to bank settlement: ~$180B tethered supply and an estimated ~$28T in annual transactions point to real adoption. Large banks (e.g., JPM) pilot 24/7 institutional settlement while providers like Tether/USDC keep pegs via T-bills; upside is always-on money movement, downside is slow base-chain throughput, energy cost, and roll-back limitations.

[07:10] Real-world case: Cross-border flows (SpaceX/Starlink)

Illustration of collecting multi-currency revenues and quickly neutralizing FX risk by hopping into stablecoins, then sweeping back into U.S. Treasuries for working capital—freeing cash and reducing cycle times.

[10:45] Why blockchain won’t replace Visa at checkout

Blocks finalize slowly and propagate across tens of thousands of nodes—fine for large settlements, frustrating at the point of sale. Expect banks to adopt the features (programmability, 24/7, instant-ish settlement) inside more centralized, regulated systems rather than relying on public chains.

[13:46] Page 1: Big Tech check-in (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA)

Q3 prints were broadly strong. Tesla’s valuation (>200× FCF) contrasts with Apple’s richer FCF yield and subdued CapEx, while AMZN/GOOG/MSFT step up AI-driven CapEx, compressing near-term FCF yields.

[14:15] Page 4: Meta & friends—spend now, justify later? (NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT)

Meta draws heat for outsized OpEx/CapEx without a third-party cloud profit engine. Bulls cite Zuck’s strong historic capital returns and AGI ambition; bears point to revenue timing and the market’s patience.

[16:26] Page 1 (cont.): Data center CapEx & the power bottleneck

Hyperscalers highlight power constraints as a real limiter, explaining “neo-cloud” deals and long-lead grid work. CapEx lifts push FCF multiples higher (lower yields) even as deployed GPU fleets monetize quickly.

[19:36] Page 2: Software’s ‘capital-light’ myth (CRM, NOW, SNOW, ORCL, AVGO)

Low CapEx ≠ low investment: massive Sales & R&D are the true “maintenance” spend in SaaS. As AI inference costs creep into COGS (e.g., paying model providers), expect margin trade-offs unless revenue productivity jumps.

[23:18] Page 3: Nvidia’s cash machine & competitive vectors

With extraordinary FCF conversion and lighter CapEx than peers, NVDA’s valuation premium draws support. Real competitive risk tilts toward in-house silicon at the clouds (GOOG/AMZN) rather than legacy CPU/GPU rivals.

[26:49] Healthcare: M&A thaw, GLP-1 direct channels, and FDA twists

Novartis buys Avidity Bio; patent cliffs nudge Big Pharma to replace pipelines via deals. Lilly’s direct channel gains traction (rumored lower out-of-pocket pricing could widen access), while FDA leadership changes and a Huntington’s therapy setback temper optimism. Vertex’s non-opioid analgesic sees early adoption in elective procedures despite payer frictions.

[31:34] Next Week: TSMC & non-lithography upstarts

Teaser for a TSMC deep dive and a look at a startup pursuing chipmaking beyond traditional lithography—potential implications for capex cycles and competitive moats.

Thanks for listening! If this helped your investing process, subscribe, share, and grab the full Cash Flow Memo for all ~80 companies plus Exhibits A–C.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES

In this episode, we connect cash-flow mechanics to headlines across energy, technology, and healthcare. We cover the oil/gas setup, a pragmatic tour through Bitcoin’s history, AI chip supply chains, and a potential reset in U.S. drug pricing.

[00:00] Intro (p.1)

Welcome to Telltales with Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence. Download the weekly Cash Flow Memo to follow along with updated exhibits and company pages.

[00:00] Disclaimer - Informational only—do your own work. No investment advice is offered or implied.

[00:00:30] Exhibit C – Oil

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest producers buoyed prices but the impulse is fading. With macro uncertainty and geopolitics in flux, the base case leans toward ~$60 oil, acknowledging wide error bars. Near-term, lower prices would pressure non-OPEC supply growth and could reset upstream equity entry points.

[00:01:30] Exhibit B – Natural Gas & Power

’26 strip nudged above $4 while the curve stays in modest backwardation. LNG volumes improve into ’25/’26, but U.S. power burn underperformed as higher gas prices pushed coal units harder. View: gas likely anchors closer to ~$4 than $3.50; for E&Ps, hold core positions and be patient adding on potential price-driven equity softness.

[00:04:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture (Exhibit A)

Deficit could improve into 2026 on tariff receipts, spending restraint, and somewhat lower interest expense. Social Security ($1.65T est.) and Medicare ($1.20T est.) dwarf most line items while interest rivals defense. Goalpost: nudge Debt-to-GDP from ~102% toward the high-90s by 2027-28—directionality matters even if we don’t get back to pre-COVID levels.

[00:07:23] Page 7 – Payments & Protocols: Visa/Mastercard

Visa (~$21B FCF on $38B revs) and Mastercard ($15B on ~$30B) convert revenue to free cash at elite rates, long valued ~30× FCF (~3% yield). Litigation remains an overhang, but the duo exemplifies “cash flow over narratives.” Sets up a segue: can blockchains truly threaten these rails?

[00:09:26] Blockchain History, Part 1 – Bitcoin

From DigiCash and the cypherpunk movement to Satoshi’s 2008 whitepaper, Bitcoin launched in 2009 as peer-to-peer electronic cash. Milestones: the Genesis “bank bailout” headline, 10,000-BTC pizza (2010), Silk Road adoption, Coinbase founded (2012), merchant uptake (2013–15), Bitcoin Cash hard fork (2017), and U.S. spot ETF debut (2024). Today, BTC functions more as a store of value than a retail payments rail—by design or by emergent use.

[00:17:53] Oakcliff Sailing

[00:20:42] Page 1 – Big Tech Roundup (AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA) (p.1)

Microsoft’s OpenAI stake is now set at ~27%, raising the question of future 10-Q disclosure detail. iPhone 17’s refresh catalyzes delayed upgrades; the software lift helps, but Apple’s services/software runway remains the bigger debate. Tesla beat on revenue but missed on profitability; strong cash flow, grid-scale batteries, and a Robo-Taxi/CyberCab ramp (including a rumored steering-wheel variant) dominated the call. OpenAI’s benefit corporation points $25B toward health—expect diagnostics and drug discovery to be early targets.

[00:24:23] Page 3 – AI Chips & Foundry (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML)

Geopolitics and export policy swirl around Nvidia’s China exposure; strategically, keeping China on the Nvidia software stack reduces tech bifurcation risk. Nvidia’s Blackwell sales + bookings have surpassed ~$0.5T, but TSMC remains the bottleneck. TSMC reported ~39% profit growth and flagged AI wafer demand with a mid-40s CAGR; initial U.S. output (AZ) still requires advanced packaging in Taiwan—globalized, but incrementally reshored.

[00:27:48] Healthcare News

Express Scripts (Cigna’s PBM) plans to end the rebate model in 2028, moving to cost-plus pharmacy reimbursement with estimates of ~30% savings on branded drugs. This tacitly acknowledges PBM incentives have contributed to higher list prices; a shift could stabilize independent pharmacies and improve transparency.

[00:28:45] What’s Next

Next week: more blockchain—stablecoins, bank adoption, and collateral/security models. The week after: TSMC and venture-led attempts to challenge advanced chipmaking paradigms.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES

A fast-paced tour through this week’s Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, oil), a history of Broadcom’s rise from spinoff to $1.7T giant, timely healthcare shifts (FDA fast paths, DTP), and quick hits on Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA/AMD, and Netflix’s cash engine.

[00:00] Intro (—)

Mike, Jason, and Hunt set up the week’s Cash Flow Memo themes across energy, technology, and healthcare, and point listeners to the memo and exhibits.

[00:00:20] Disclaimer (—)

Standard “not investment advice” reminder; do your own work.

[00:00:30] Exhibit C — Oil: weak prices & market share math

Geopolitical progress around the Gaza ceasefire reduces risk premia; Saudi policy tilts toward market share. Brent/WTI near ~$58 with a flat curve; oversupply could flip to contango. Hunt argues ~$50 oil isn’t sustainable versus decline curves, but normalization could take 12–18 months.

[00:02:41] Exhibit B — U.S. Natural Gas: resilient supply, watch LNG/power

Dry gas output hangs around ~106 (bcf/d context), supported by associated gas from the Permian. Power demand forecasts for 2026+ warrant caution; LNG and power market news are key swing variables for the strip.

[00:03:15] Exhibit A — U.S. Government Finances: deficit outlook improves

Deficit projections improve by roughly $400B amid talk of a full-year continuing resolution and tariff revenue changes. Rates path matters: FY26 interest cost modeled at ~3.5% of debt, with short-tenor Treasury financing potentially nudging the 10-year toward the low-3s. Policy mechanics (reconciliation/50 votes) and program trade-offs feature prominently.

[00:07:31] Company Deep Dive — Broadcom (AVGO): from HP roots to $1.7T (p.2)

Tracing lineage: HP components → Agilent (1999) → Avago (KKR/Silver Lake, 2005) → 2016 merger with Broadcom. Under Hock Tan, a disciplined M&A engine shifted mix toward software (CA Technologies, Symantec assets, VMware) while staying fabless in semis. AI data-center networking reignites hardware; the challenge now is finding needle-moving deals at $1.7T EV.

[00:16:12] Healthcare — FDA’s “super-accelerated” reviews

Nine first-wave reviews target serious unmet needs with 1–2 month timelines. A Regeneron gene therapy for genetic deafness shows 9/12 children regaining hearing—access could follow quickly if approved.

[00:17:06] Healthcare — Pharma goes DTP (direct-to-patient)

Genentech pilots direct sales for Rx flu therapies, fulfilled via Cost Plus Drug and Amazon Pharmacy. Same-day door delivery hints at a broader channel shift that compresses middlemen and meets patient convenience.

[00:17:58] Healthcare — TrumpRx adds IVF meds (Merck), 80% discount

Big list-to-cash gaps spotlight PBM spreads. If cash-pay platforms set a visible reference price, pressure escalates for Medicare/commercial plans to converge—potentially a snowball toward lower net drug pricing.

[00:19:06] Next Week Teaser: Blockchain

A candid, critical take is coming—why blockchain hasn’t worked (yet) and where it might.

[00:19:23] Future of American Healthcare: thought experiment

Could a Republican plan converge with parts of the Sanders wing on Medicare-for-all optionality and MFN pricing? The aim: bend U.S. healthcare from ~18–19% of GDP toward peer levels (~10–11%).

[00:20:48] Page 1 — Tesla earnings tonight (p.1)

Strong Q3 deliveries frame expectations; watch auto margins and the energy segment’s contribution to cash flow.

[00:21:26] Page 1 — Apple iPhone 17 traction (p.1)

OS progress lands well; iPhone “Air” China launch timing noted. Device is thinner/lighter yet larger-screened—appeal vs pocket-fit tradeoffs.

[00:22:31] Page 3 — NVIDIA vs. China: demand still outruns supply (p.3)

China restrictions damp direct sales, but global demand stays well above constrained supply. Data/workloads are portable; enforcement challenges suggest indirect access routes may persist.

[00:24:06] Page 3 — AMD’s OpenAI lane (p.3)

OpenAI’s announced 26GW data-center ambition stresses GPU supply and spurs hedging. NVIDIA sells at the rack level (networking + liquid cooling); AMD is building toward comparable systems—OpenAI may shoulder more integration to diversify.

[00:25:52] Page 4 — Netflix: the cash-flow franchise flywheel (p.4)

FCF ~$11B vs Disney’s ~$14B; reporting pivots underscore cash generation. A hit kids IP (“K-Pop Demon Hunters”) hints at a scalable franchise strategy—portfolio bets create room for outsized wins while maintaining margin discipline.

[00:29:15] Wrap-up & What’s Next

Back next week with blockchain and, soon after, a TSMC history session. Thanks for listening—share the memo and subscribe for the weekly cash-flow lens.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This episode blends near-term energy realities with a tour through Oracle’s history and its AI pivot—then zooms out to policy, trade, and the cash-flow engines dominating tech and payments.

[00:00] Intro

[00:00:20] Disclaimer

[00:00:44] Exhibit C: Oil outlook

Hunt notes Middle East détente reduces risk premia but isn’t bullish for prices near-term. With Saudi likely to defend share, oil feels “subdued”; if you own quality E&Ps, hold, but wait to add until/if crude dips into the $50s.

[00:03:22] Exhibit B: Natural gas oversupply

Summer heat underwhelmed and gas-fired power is flat YoY despite AI/data-center narratives; LNG strength offsets only so much. Hunt sees 2025 gas averaging ~$3.60 (vs. ~$2.40 in 2024), with Permian associated gas keeping supply sturdy and storage entering winter “full.”

[00:05:19] Exhibit A: U.S. finances

CBO puts the FY25 deficit near $1.8T vs. the memo’s $1.9T placeholder, with 2026 likely lower (potentially by ~$400B). Policy brinkmanship (continuing resolution fights) hasn’t hit markets yet—but it bears watching.

[00:06:40] U.S.–China trade tension returns (Exhibit A)

China’s Commerce Ministry tightens export license rules on critical minerals; U.S. rhetoric hardens (tariff talk). Hunt flags a tail-risk: deeper economic decoupling (chips/planes/soybeans), which capital markets might be under-pricing.

[00:10:07] Oracle: the origin story (p. 2)

Jason traces Oracle to Ellison/Miner/Oates, CIA contracts, and IBM’s relational DB research (System R) inspiring SQL’s commercialization. Early funding was tiny (~$2k + $50k contract), growth leaned on debt, and a ’90s sales-practice scare nearly sank the firm before it emerged stronger.

[00:17:19] Cloud stumble to AI inflection (p. 2)

Oracle lagged early cloud pricing models (per-core vs. elastic compute) but is now resurgent as AI lifts demand. A marquee OpenAI deal reportedly swelled backlog from ~$80B to >$400B, positioning OCI and Oracle DB squarely in AI training/serving stacks.

[00:19:41] Do LLMs change databases? (p. 2)

Jason frames LLMs as “compression” layers over enterprise data; long-run, natural-language querying could obviate parts of SQL workflows. Oracle’s bet: be the infra and data platform where that future gets built.

[00:20:33] Next week: Broadcom

Teaser for another “history of” segment; TSMC likely to follow soon after.

[00:20:49] Healthcare: California reins in PBMs

New law curbs steering to affiliated pharmacies, mandates rebate pass-through to patients, and blocks exclusivity with drugmakers. The team sees momentum toward cleaner economics for consumers.

[00:21:40] TrumpRx + AstraZeneca; DTC momentum

AstraZeneca joins TrumpRx, and ~90% of pharma execs are evaluating direct-to-consumer fulfillment—potentially disintermediating PBMs over time.

[00:22:18] Page 1 check-in: AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA (p. 1)

A quiet headline week overall. Notables: Apple succession chatter (post-Jeff Williams); Amazon’s “AgentCore” to standardize AI agent development on AWS; Microsoft secures hundreds of thousands of GPUs via a European “Neo Cloud” partner model—shifting CapEx optics while locking in capacity.

[00:24:35] CapEx optics, Nvidia’s dominance, TSMC’s role (pp. 1–3)

True AI CapEx outstrips reported figures when you include off-balance-sheet partner commitments. Nvidia’s equity value ($4.5T) towers over megacaps, but none of this runs without TSMC ($1.5T; ~$30B CapEx).

[00:27:06] TSMC: 2nm pricing & growth (p. 3)

2nm wafer pricing rises a measured ~10–20% (vs. 50% feared), preserving customer loyalty. Monthly prints show ~35% YoY revenue growth—evidence of unrelenting AI/foundry demand.

[00:27:48] Payments compounding: Visa/Mastercard (+PayPal) (p. 7)

Cash-flow engines: Visa ($38B rev / $21B FCF) and Mastercard ($30B / $15B FCF) keep compounding double-digit top and FCF lines—rivaled only by Nvidia’s margins at hyperscale.

[00:28:44] Blockchain as a threat to networks? (p. 7)

Jason sees limited displacement risk today; real-world rails still require dispute resolution (e.g., Coinbase adding rollback)—a philosophical break from immutable chains and a practical nod to traditional payment protections.

[00:30:28] Wrap

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES

A brisk, data-driven run through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, Natural Gas, Oil), followed by a condensed “History of OpenAI,” semis capacity pinch points, a Tesla check-in, and timely healthcare policy updates.

[00:00] Intro

[00:47] Exhibit C: Oil—Geopolitics & The Abraham Accords Path

Discussion of a proposed Gaza plan reportedly backed by regional governments and the potential for broader normalization—implications for oil risk premia and global supply/demand. The team underscores how political stabilization could pressure crude pricing while reshaping Middle East dynamics.

[02:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—Differentials & Permian Activity

Waha basis blowouts (−$6 to −$7) tied to maintenance heading to the Gulf Coast; relief expected as maintenance ends. Team notes curtailments in the Permian and how depressed Waha prices could temper gas supply growth despite a longer-term ~108 bcf/d 2026 view.

[03:51] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances—Regular Order vs. CRs

All 12 House appropriations bills passed; several in conference with the Senate. If completed, “regular order” could be a real fiscal process improvement; timing risk remains around near-term pay cycles and political tactics.

[06:54] The History of OpenAI

From 2015 nonprofit roots to capped-profit restructuring in 2019, Microsoft’s early backing, and the GPT-1→2→3 progression culminating in ChatGPT’s breakout adoption. The hosts highlight governance tension, talent churn, and the compute arms race driving massive capex, alongside OpenAI’s push into consumer and enterprise features.

[19:02] Next Week’s History: Oracle—From Cash Machine to Capex Engine (p. 2)

Teaser for Oracle’s pivot into massive AI infrastructure spend, its OpenAI linkage, and whether financing can keep pace with ambition.

[20:16] Semis Stack & The Compute Bottleneck (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML) (p. 3)

Page 3 spotlight: NVDA leadership vs. AMD incentives, Intel’s moves, and why TSMC’s process capacity is the current “choke point.” The crew argues TSMC’s pricing power is underexercised relative to its moat and strategic position.

[23:07] Tesla: Model Y Trim, FSD v14, and Product Roadmap Expectations (pp. 10–11 if applicable)

Market hoped for a ~$30k EV; instead a lower-cost Model Y variant and ongoing robo-taxi focus. FSD v14 early feedback looks improved; rumors swirl (Roadster, new propulsion/downforce concepts), but capital markets still weigh valuation vs. cash generation.

[26:16] Healthcare News: TrumpRx Mechanics & Medicare Math (Exhibit A; Healthcare pages)

Refined estimate places Medicare Part D government spend near ~$140B (older figure), with potential savings in the ~$70B range depending on design. Key operational unknowns (coverage vs. out-of-pocket) and how thresholds interact with the $2,000 OOP max.

[27:21] Tariffs on Patented Pharma & CDMO Workarounds (Healthcare pages)

100% tariff headline risk appears mitigable—onshoring or contracting U.S. CDMOs can offset. Given high gross margins post-R&D, the sector sighs relief versus harsher scenarios.

[28:01] The Case for the Almighty Dollar (Exhibit A)

If spending levels stabilize and healthcare growth moderates, the U.S. deficit could trend from ~$1.9T toward ~$1.4–1.5T. Hosts contrast U.S. trajectories with other majors; note gold strength vs. a firming dollar as markets reassess fiscal momentum.

[30:32] Outro

Thanks for listening! If the episode helped your investing framework, share it with a friend and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo for all 80+ company updates and Exhibits A–C.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES

A brisk tour through oil, gas, and U.S. fiscal mechanics, followed by a biotech history chapter and a deep dive on NVIDIA’s sustained dominance. We close with a big healthcare development—“Trump-RX”—and quick hits from Harrow Health’s investor day.

[00:00] Intro

[00:28] Exhibit C – Oil: $62 is Doing Its Job

Hunt frames today’s oil tape: production is rolling off in the U.S., OPEC, and non-OPEC; geopolitical thawing could keep prices soft near term. With Saudi capacity around 12 mb/d and surplus capacity trending toward ~2.5 mb/d by 2026, a “normally supplied” market implies oil trades in the $70s—though swoons into the $50s can happen on the way there.

[02:05] Exhibit B – Natural Gas, Power Burn & LNG

Gas underperformed, but storage is robust. Power burn was flat ’25 vs ’24 despite “AI, AI” chatter—a surprise tied to coal plant life-extension and a near-term lull in new wind/solar coming online. LNG demand stepped up this year; if power burn resumes climbing, a durable ~$4 gas band becomes more plausible.

[03:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Cash Flow & the Shutdown

The team walks through the continuing resolution dynamics: House bills vs 60-vote Senate reality, daily vote tactics, and the case for finishing all 12 appropriations. Beyond the political scoreboard, the focus is on process: budgeting via CRs isn’t how the system should work—and markets will parse timing of data releases like jobs.

[05:44] Biopharma History (Part 4): From Genzyme to Monoclonals

Jason spotlights Genzyme’s rare-disease model (boosted by the Orphan Drug Act), the Human Genome Project’s 13-year blueprint, and the 1996 Dolly milestone foreshadowing cell reprogramming. Genentech’s late-90s antibodies (Rituxan, Herceptin) ushered in targeted oncology—monoclonals remain the highest-grossing class today.

[12:09] Next Week: OpenAI—A Controversial History

Programming note: the crew will tackle OpenAI’s origin story and flashpoints next week, with Oracle and NVIDIA history episodes likely to follow.

[14:19] NVIDIA’s Moat: Cash, CUDA, Cadence (p. 3)

Hunt updates the NVIDIA page: zero net debt, >$50B cash, ~$85B run-rate FCF on ~$170B revenue, and modest capex vs hyperscalers. Mike explains why CUDA’s ecosystem and annual product cadence (powered by ~$15B R&D) create a TCO advantage so strong that even “free” AMD GPUs lose in practice; the window for rivals narrows as workloads stay variable.

[21:20] Post-Break: ASICs vs. AMD & What’s After LLMs

Jason notes the market’s pivot: when buyers do switch from NVIDIA, they’re more often going custom (ASIC/TPU) than to AMD. He adds that frontier researchers expect architectures beyond today’s LLMs to power the next step in reasoning—another reason flexibility favors NVIDIA’s stack for now.

[22:43] Healthcare Shake-Up: “Trump-RX” and PBMs

A new Medicare direct-to-consumer platform (Pfizer as first partner) could remove PBMs from many transactions, standardize pricing, and simplify Part D decisions. The panel discusses “gross-to-net” dynamics (often ~50% industrywide) and why UnitedHealth’s PBM economics could face pressure; potential annual savings to Medicare could be very large.

[27:25] Harrow Health Investor Day: Buying Back Melt

Harrow fully acquires the rest of Melt (anesthetic asset) for $8M upfront plus royalties. The team praises the capital allocation arc—spin out in the lean years, re-acquire after Phase 3 success once cash flows stabilize—highlighting optionality beyond ophthalmology (e.g., dentistry).

[28:41] Wrap-Up & Next Week

Sign-off with a reminder to check the memo. Next episode: OpenAI’s history—then likely Oracle and NVIDIA deep dives.

Thanks for listening! If this episode helped clarify markets, share it with a friend and subscribe. Grab the Cash Flow Memo for all exhibits and the ~80-company financials.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow Memo

Download

SHOWNOTES

A fast-moving tour across energy, technology, and healthcare: oil spare capacity looks set to tighten, natural gas loses its backwardation, DC politics and immigration policy enter the chat, we revisit Genentech’s beginnings, and then unpack Apple, Oracle/Broadcom, and NVIDIA through a cash-flow lens.

Stick around for a sailing community shout-out from Oakcliff and a healthcare segment weighing Tylenol headlines against mixed evidence.

[00:00] Intro

[00:19] Disclaimer

[00:26] Exhibit C — Oil: spare capacity on track to shrink

Hunt walks through surplus crude capacity by country (Saudi, UAE, etc.) and argues that by next year the cushion could slip back to ~2.5 mb/d. With demand growth modest, geopolitics (Ukraine, Iran) and the “$62 oil did its magic” supply response suggest the window for sub-$50 oil may have passed.

[03:13] Exhibit B — Natural Gas: futures tone weakens

Backwardation is gone; later-dated gas sits around ~$3.95 (’26), with a ’25 average ~ $2.65 and prompt near ~$3.10. Supply ticked down when prices averaged ~$2.40–$2.75, but rebounds in ’25 (Permian leads; Waha even flipping negative). Despite AI power buzz, gas-fired demand has flattened as coal plants linger and wind/solar come online.

[05:35] Exhibit A — DC budget brinkmanship & policy crosscurrents

House passes a short extension; Senate dynamics keep shutdown risk alive around October 1 and again into Thanksgiving without a broader deal. Conversation turns to a White House move to hike H-1B employer application fees from ~$2,500 toward ~$100,000—raising questions about talent, wages, and whether price hikes would throttle volumes or better filter for “best and brightest.”

[11:12] Biopharma History (Part 3): Genentech, insulin & the tools that unlocked biotech

Jason traces Boyer/Cohen’s 1973 gene-splicing breakthrough and Genentech’s path from somatostatin to human insulin (Humulin) and a blockbuster 1980 IPO alongside peers like Biogen and Amgen. Mike spotlights PCR’s origin story—Kary Mullis’s unconventional inspiration—and how DNA amplification reshaped diagnostics, forensics, and research.

[17:33] Oakcliff Sailing

From Newport’s Sailing Museum to fundraising for sails and a long-term home in Oyster Bay, Dawn Riley shares updates and an invitation to visit, support, and get involved.

[19:52] Healthcare Update — Tylenol headlines vs. mixed evidence

Trump/HHS draw a headline-grabbing link between prenatal Tylenol use and autism. The crew weighs the literature (often ADHD-focused, mixed conclusions), real-world usage since the 1950s, and pregnancy tradeoffs when Tylenol is the only approved painkiller—underscoring how nuance gets lost in big-policy moments.

[22:09] Page 1 — The case for $AAPL

Hunt contrasts hyperscaler CapEx (Amazon ~$90B; Alphabet/Microsoft $65B each) with Apple ($12B) and asks whether Apple can win via on-device/app-centric AI without giant model spend. Jason, a hardware/software skeptic of late, notes a packed Apple Store and a rare OS update that actually feels faster—hinting at green shoots on experience even as security/AI integration remain hard problems.

[25:17] Page 2 — Broadcom vs. Oracle: cash flow, CapEx, and OpenAI exposure

Oracle is running heavy CapEx with negative FCF tied to AI data centers and a massive OpenAI compute commitment; leadership shifts elevate cloud execs. Broadcom, by contrast, throws off FCF with comparatively little CapEx and benefits when hyperscalers deploy non-NVIDIA accelerators. The debate: is Oracle’s risk/reward compelling—or just risky?

[27:57] Page 3 — NVIDIA’s lead & the demand question

NVIDIA’s equity value (~$4.4T) and striking FCF margins prompt the sustainability question. Mike thinks supply execution looks solid—each new chip lowers cost-per-token and sustains ROI—but demand relies on platform wars, funding cycles, and whether value accrues beyond NVIDIA. If financing tightens, who blinks first—and do balance-sheet giants like Google gain relative advantage?

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This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTES

This episode tackles the week’s cash-flow movers across energy, tech, and healthcare—then time-travels through biopharma’s biggest breakthroughs. We close with practical EV takes, Big Tech updates, and why Mars might be more interesting than the headlines suggest.

[00:00] Intro

[00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand

IEA’s latest revision lifts 2025 demand growth to ~0.7–0.8 mb/d (vs. ~0.4–0.5), implying the surplus could tighten from ~3.3 mb/d toward ~2.0—mostly in Saudi spare capacity (10.1 mb/d run-rate vs. ~12 mb/d capability). Futures sit near ~$62 as macro/geopolitical risk (Russia distillates, Iran supply) caps downside but keeps the curve flat in the low-60s.

[03:34] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/Supply

Production hovered near ~106 while power burn stayed frustratingly flat (~37.8→38.5). Spot printed $3.04 last Thursday, with a contangoed strip around ~$3.83–$3.90 for 2026—disappointing versus the old ~$4 anchor given modest data-center uplift to date.

[04:38] Exhibit A: U.S. Government Finances & Rates

Congress passed a CR to Nov 20; Democrats seek Medicaid restorations, making a shutdown plausible. The Fed delivered a quarter-point cut—arriving “too late” in Hunt’s view—after holding steady post last fall’s 50 bps move; politics around timing get a candid airing.

[06:50] Biopharma History: From Penicillin to mRNA

Alexander Fleming’s accidental penicillin find (1928/29) led to wartime scale-up (Pfizer’s deep-tank fermentation; doses >2M by 1943) and a “Golden Age of Antibiotics” (streptomycin for TB, tetracycline). Genentech’s 1980s recombinant insulin marks the modern biotech inflection; BioNTech’s mRNA pivot shows how far we’ve come—even as viruses and antibiotic resistance remain unsolved frontiers.

[17:16] Oakcliff Sailing

Community update and Annapolis Boat Show plans; proceeds benefit programs via racingcalendar.org.

[19:29] Page 1: Mega-Cap Check-In

Quick scan of the “Page 1” five. Tesla highlights include Musk buying ~$1B of shares and Nevada approval to test robotaxis; Amazon FC tour preview tees up automation talk; Microsoft’s OpenAI arrangements continue to solidify.

[19:44] Apple: Translation AirPods & the AR Path (p. 1)

AirPods Pro 3 impress—live in-ear translation hints at Apple’s real-world AR strategy while iPhone “Air” appeals to China’s thin-phone fad and preps a foldable future. New “liquid glass” UI lands better in hand than on stage; the market’s “not enough AI” reaction misses the iteration-to-platform arc.

[21:51] Microsoft & OpenAI: Deal Momentum (p. 1)

No big surprises—just steady progress that reinforces Azure’s AI gravity and inference economics, with edge vs. cloud tradeoffs a watch-item.

[22:28] Oracle: Building AI ‘Factories’ (p. 2)

Larry Ellison leans into capacity for inference—Oracle wants to be a go-to “AI factory” supplier. Jason flags an overbuild risk if inference migrates to edge devices, but legacy database strengths gain new relevance in the AI era.

[25:10] Page 3: NVIDIA & China Strategy

China signals intent to reduce NVIDIA reliance while simultaneously pressing a prior remedy about uninterrupted supply—talk vs. action tension. Bottom line: NVDA’s constraint is still TSMC wafer output; global demand ex-China remains plenty.

[27:26] Life on Mars?

NASA reports organic carbon and iron compounds consistent with microbial biosignatures; alternative non-biologic origins remain unconvincing. Sample-return logistics could unlock definitive answers—surprising this didn’t dominate the news cycle.

[29:09] Tesla Model Y Door Safety (p. 1)

Emergency latches exist but aren’t intuitive, especially rear seats; several accidents spotlight the issue. Expect regulatory pressure for a clearly mechanical primary interior release.

[30:16] Used EVs: Who Should Buy What? (p. 1)

Charging at home is the gating factor; in California it’s often a no-brainer. For used, Tesla’s deeper field data and software stack make it the safer pick; typical battery life guidance ~150k miles, with many vehicles exceeding that—non-Tesla software still lags.

Thanks for listening! If this helped you think in cash-flow, share the episode and grab the full memo for charts, exhibits, and ~80 company updates. Subscribe so you never miss the next deep dive.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com