Ten Miles Square

Democrats won big. Can they deliver?

Voters handed Democrats a midterm win on affordability, and now they expect results. That won’t be easy with Trump still in the White House.

Ed Kilgore, political columnist at New York magazine, joins Anne Kim to talk about the quick wins Democrats need. They cover the “double haters” who decided the election, the party’s surprising gains across the South, and whether Democrats can work with a president they don’t trust. They also look ahead to 2028: the fate of the GOP and what Democrats should look for in their next nominee.

Guest: Ed Kilgore, political columnist, New York magazine

Chapters

00:00 Why midterms are a referendum, but 2028 is a choice

03:05 The “double haters” and Democrats’ affordability challenge

06:25 Governing trifectas, overreach, and anti-government sentiment

08:10 Can Democrats work with Trump? The trust problem

10:37 Democratic gains across the South

13:58 Who is powering the new Southern coalition?

15:48 Balancing affordability with investigations and impeachment

18:20 The GOP’s post-election divisions and Vance’s prospects

21:38 Trump’s legacy and the risks of the next two years

23:26 What Democrats should look for in a 2028 candidate

Ten Miles Square is a Washington Monthly podcast hosted by Anne Kim.

The Trump administration recently proposed dramatic changes to the U.S. Census that could erase millions of people from the official count and obscure vital demographic data.

If these plans move forward, the 2030 Census could include new questions related to citizenship and a ban on questions about race, ethnicity and sexual orientation. These changes would have profound implications for politics, policy, and national identity, argues Margo J. Anderson, the nation’s pre-eminent historian on the U.S. Census.  

Host: Anne Kim

Guest: Margo Anderson, Distinguished Professor Emerita, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Chapters

00:00 Introduction: The Power and Significance of the Census

02:04 Origins of the US Census in the 1780s

03:55 Census Data and Policy: Medicaid, Representation, and Public Health

05:24 The Census as a Marker of American History and Identity

09:02 The Politicization of the Census and Slavery

11:22 Current Debates: Changes Proposed by the Trump Administration

14:08 Excluding Non-Citizens and Its Implications

15:57 Race, Ethnicity, and the Evolution of Census Questions

21:04 The 2030 Census: Discrimination or Liberation?

28:49 Potential Impact of Proposed Changes on Policy and Society

The GOP is putting up a bumper crop of subpar candidates this cycle. Here’s our countdown of the five worst.

Host: Anne Kim, Washington Monthly

Guest: Nate Weisberg

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to problematic congressional candidates

02:01 Common traits among problematic candidates: racism and white supremacy ties

03:56 Top five candidates: Brandon Herrera and Texas 23

05:28 Number four: Scott Perry and anti-Semitic associations

08:54 Number two: Max Miller and family/political drama

10:09 Number one: Ken Paxton and Texas corruption

12:14 The race for Texas Senate and the threat of Ken Paxton

13:00 A Democrat on the list: Darializa Chevalier

14:34 Candidates with moral character: Dan Osborne, Roy Cooper, Adam Hamilton

15:52 Candidates who inspire hope and positive change

Until fairly recently, one of the most valuable commoditiesin GOP politics was an endorsement by President Donald Trump.

According to an analysis by political scientist Seth Masket and his colleagues, Trump-endorsed candidates enjoy as much as a 16-point advantage over their rivals.

How did Trump establish such a grip over the RepublicanParty?

Masket’s new book, The Elephants in the Room: How Trump Voters Seized the Party from Republican Leaders, seeks to answer that question. Masket concludes that the rise of xenophobic populism, along with the decline of the party establishment, may have made Trump’s ascent inevitable.  

Host: Anne Kim, Washington Monthly

Guest: Seth Masket, University of Denver

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Seth Masket's main argument

02:06 Historical roots of populism in America

04:10 The rise of conservative media and echo chambers

08:09 Structural reforms in party nomination processes

12:06 The 2016 Trump nomination and party disorganization

15:10 Trump's consolidation of power through endorsements

17:59 Insights from county party chairs survey

20:53 Future of the Republican Party post-Trump

26:12 Parallels with Democratic insurgencies and leftist candidates

27:52 Potential reforms for party balance and control

The think tank Third Way recently released what it calls a "new economic bargain" with the middle class. It's premised on the idea that "if you bust your butt, you should get ahead," says Executive Vice President for Policy Jim Kessler.

The organization proposes a slate of 20 practical ideas it says will significantly improve the lives of middle-class Americans. Among these proposals: cheaper used car loans and a universal pension.

Host: Anne Kim, Washington Monthly

Guest: Jim Kessler, Third Way

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to the agenda and its importance

01:59 The changing perception of the middle class

04:04 Historical context and the evolution of middle class policies

06:09 Core message: work should lead to getting ahead

08:01 Proposal for federal guarantees on used car loans

10:01 Work as a pathway to wealth and retirement security

12:00 Party branding and electoral challenges

13:58 Comparison with other policy proposals and think tanks

16:09 Feasibility of big reforms like Medicare for All

18:56 Addressing criticisms of incrementalism

21:04 The impact of proposed policies on wealth and inequality

23:05 Shared priorities across different political agendas

23:58 Optimism for Democratic electoral prospects in 2028

A veteran pollster points to several factors wrecking polling’s reputation, including overhyped results and a sea of low-quality polls.

Political polling has suffered some embarrassing  failures this year.

In Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, polls predicted a blowout for Abdul El-Sayed; he won by less than a percentage point. In Wisconsin, polls showed Democratic SocialistFrancesca Hong enjoying double-digit leads in the gubernatorial primary; she narrowly lost to David Crowley.

In truth, polls have always been unreliable.

Longtime Democratic pollster Stefan Hankin, founder and CEOof Lincoln Park Strategies, explains the myriad of challenges currently facing, including a lack of enforceable professional standards to prevent bad polls from getting press.

Host: Anne Kim, Washington Monthly

Guest: Stefan Hankin, Lincoln Park Strategies

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to polling failures in recent elections

02:12 What makes a good, trustworthy poll?

03:01 Sample size recommendations for state-wide polls

04:09 The difficulty of predicting likely voters

05:47 How pollsters select voter samples

07:36 Response rates and reaching respondents

08:38 Are polls becoming less reliable?

12:02 Lack of enforcement in polling standards

12:56 What went wrong in Michigan and Wisconsin

15:43 Are polls overselling their accuracy?

19:32 Prediction markets versus polls

22:09 How much should we trust polls for November?

24:22 How to responsibly interpret polling data

28:10 The future of polling technology and methods

29:45 The unpredictability of human behavior and polling

The CEO of the world’s first “female-forward” AI startuphas a plan for tackling gender bias in artificial intelligence.

Host: Anne Kim, Washington Monthly

Guest, Shubhi Rao, CEO and Founder, Uplevyl

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to AI bias and societal influence

03:00 How large language models are trained and their data sources

07:04 Societal biases reflected in AI, especially regarding gender

12:03 Impact of data erasure on women-related research and information

19:12 Uplevyl's approach to building specialized vertical LLMs

22:08 Differences between vertical LLMs and commercial models

25:09 Policy implications and standardization in AI development

27:02 Advice for users to recognize and mitigate bias in AI responses

President Donald Trump's relentless attacks on vote by mail are needlessly threatening public trust in absentee voting. Learn the truth about vote by mail and the threats to its future.

Host: Anne Kim, Washington Monthly

Guests: Phil Keisling, former Oregon Secretary of State; Barbara Smith Warner, Center for Responsive Government

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to vote by mail and its importance

02:07 History and growth of vote at home states

03:21 Demographics relying on vote at home

04:36 Partisanship and vote at home expansion

06:27 Addressing voter fraud claims and evidence

08:02 Security features of mail ballots

10:00 Impact of vote at home on election turnout

12:16 Trump's executive order on Postal Service and mail voting

13:00 Postal Service's role and security concerns

15:19 Legal and constitutional issues with postal regulations

17:41 Implementation challenges for election officials

20:05 Supreme Court decisions and future challenges

22:30 Implications for future elections and legal safeguards

25:20 Election administration resilience and confidence

29:45 Policy recommendations for Congress to protect vote by mail

1 in 5 voters who supported Donald Trump iin 2024 now regrets their vote, according to a new survey from Navigator Research. Inflation and war are their biggest complaints.

But Democrats shouldn't count on their votes. "Trump regretters" remain deeply skeptical about both parties' ability to deliver on their promises.

Host: Anne Kim, Washington Monthly

Guest: Tina Tang, Navigator Research

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Trump voter regret and its significance

01:58 Demographic breakdown of regretters: age, race, gender

03:53 Key issues driving regret: costs, war, broken promises

05:52 Trust in parties and disillusionment among regretters

07:58 How regret influences voting intentions and party trust

09:51 The importance of everyday issues over cultural topics

12:01 Messaging strategies for Democrats and Republicans

13:54 Perceptions of party focus and voter priorities

15:50 The role of news consumption and information seeking

17:59 Future research plans and post-election follow-up

Recent weeks have seen an escalation of the Trumpadministration’s efforts to interfere with this fall’s elections. Itsaggressive efforts to restrict mail-in voting, for example, could potentially disenfranchise millions while sowing chaos in states.

President Trump has also threatened to arrest election officers accused of wrongdoing (many of whom are volunteers) andto send ICE agents to the polls.

The nonprofit Protect Democracy argues that all of theseactions are part of a larger scheme by the Trump administration to perpetuate election denialism, interfere with Americans’ right to vote, and thwart free and fair elections.  

How can citizens be prepared when they go to the polls thisfall, and what they can do to protect themselves and others in their communities?

Host: Anne Kim, Washington Monthly

Guest: Beau Tremitiere, Protect Democracy

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to election threats and Protect Democracy

01:50 The three tactics: deception, disruption, denial

03:50 How the federal government is undermining election integrity

07:04 Civil society's response and mobilization

08:54 Legal challenges and court rulings protecting elections

11:09 The role of the Supreme Court and untested legal issues

15:05 Voter suppression and intimidation tactics

19:53 How to prepare and respond to election-related threats

23:08 Responsible recording and reporting of election issues

26:02 Resources and where to learn more