Ten Minutes On...

Hello! After my summer hiatus I'm back to provide some commentary and analysis on some of the biggest stories happening each week.

Because I was away, I have decided to look at 2 stories that caught my eye in the past month - the election in Venezuela and its aftermath and Ukraine's decision to invade Russian territory - as well as some more recent events, including Israel's revulsion and reaction to the killing of hostages in Gaza and the far right's electoral success in the east German states of Saxony and Thuringia. Do have a listen and if you like it, share it and subscribe for future episodes!

The IMF published its latest estimate for the global economy in its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. As well as looking at what it said in that and its previous April report, Guy has a look at IMF's predicted growth rates and the actual ones since 2014 to get a sense of how accurate they are and why it's important that it does so.

This is the last episode ahead of a short summer break. The podcast will resume again at the start of September!

NATO is holding its 75th anniversary summit in Washington this week. But beyond the current challenges it faces (Ukraine, the next US president), what is holding it together or pulling it apart? And what are its future prospects?

After the first round of the French elections on Sunday, 30 June, it looks like the far right is in the driving seat. This is just the latest in a wave of far right votes and sentiment. But what's caused it? Guy digs into some of the research, noting that its rise predates the Great Recession of 2008-9 and that cultural and nativist concerns arguably trump those of (individual) economic crisis when it comes to winning votes. Guy also looks at what the few far right parties are saying and doing in government but concludes that their influence and impact on public sentiment and policy is somewhat overstated.

Last week Russian President Vladmir Putin travelled to Pyongyang where he looked to establish closer ties with North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un. Why did this happen and why now? What are the implications of the deal for the two countries and others in the East Asia region, including China, Japan and South Korea? But while it's perceived as a threat to Western interests and those of their regional partners, it shouldn't be overstated. Guy highlights the economic weaknesses in both countries, which could make the two regimes vulnerable.

Arguably what makes a power great--or indeed global--is its economy. But while China has garnered considerable attention for its apparent ability to rival the United States and the West in terms of political influence, how accurate is this? In reality, China's economy is weaker than it looks, with less consumer and investor confidence and a housing market bubble that Beijing is trying to deflate.

What might be the repercussions of the European elections that were concluded on June 2? What could be the effects of the boosted right (both far right and centre-right) and weaker left and centre-left (including social democracts, liberals and greens) in the European Parliament? To answer these questions, Guy looks at three important policy areas for the incoming Commission and Parliament - immigration, the economy and the environment (including the Green Deal) and how the Commission may respond and the new parliamentary balance will react.

Elections have been held and concluded in the past week in South Africa, India and Mexico - three of the world's largest economies and three important countries in the emerging world. In this episode, Guy looks at who has won or is likely to win in each country and the underlying economic conditions. While he notes the likelihood of political continuity in economically booming India and Mexico, he observes it comes at a price in the form of eroding freedoms.  Meanwhile in South Africa, arguably the weakest economically of the three, the formerly dominant ANC is entering into coalition talks which may bring political instability but also potentially stronger accountability and checks on power.

The British General Election campaign got underway with a policy bolt from the blue: national service. In this episode, Guy looks at how this policy would fit in with the UK Government's most recent Defence Review, some of the findings from researchers in economic and civic terms and which other countries employ some form of mandatory military service, including Scandinavian ones like Denmark, Sweden and Norway.

What's happening in Georgia? is it as simple as it's sometimes portrayed in the Western media, as a case of East versus West or Georgia caught between joining Europe or following the Russian path? To explore this, Guy Burton looks at some of the wider politics taking place in Georgia as well as the limited economic advances. He notes that although Georgia is classified as "partly free" by the Freedom House NGO, it has been undergoing a democractic retreat in recent years. Guy then situates this in the wider decline facing democracies and the broader causes that have been associated with this.