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Texas Longhorns LIVE 120 — Battle of the UTs

Tommy opens Texas Longhorns Live #120. Matt joining shortly. Special guest Tucker Harlin from the Tennessee channel for the first Texas-Tennessee meeting in 57 years and first at either home venue. Noon game at Neyland (not a typical night environment). Tucker will be there in person. Discussion of scheduling quirks (LSU-A&M night slot, potential Alabama-Mississippi State noon + College GameDay the following week).

Tennessee has faced two relative layups plus Georgia Tech. Defense looks better than last year and more like a competent SEC unit. Offense remains a mystery — they have not had to open the playbook much and have leaned heavily on the run when they have a clear line advantage.

Preseason expectation: 8–9 wins and building toward 2027 with true freshman QB Faison Brandon. Still attainable. Circled games: Texas, Texas A&M (now looking more winnable), Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina on the road (bad history). Eight or nine wins plus a sneak-in CFP path remains possible.

Ethan Davis (converted WR) went down in the Georgia Tech game (limped off in the fourth). Big loss in the receiving game. DeSean Brame is now the primary receiving threat at TE. Blocking-oriented options remain (Trent Thomas, Drake Martinez). Room has talent but is unproven. Miles Kitzelman was more of a locker-room guy last year; Davis was supposed to be the upgrade.

Tucker feels better about the defense than the offense. DL more aggressive than expected. Linebackers (Arion Carter, Jeremiah T. Lander) rotating to edge. Secondary has not given up many big plays (Dajon Lane pick-six vs Georgia Tech). Has not faced a high-upside QB like Arch Manning yet. Secondary was poor vs UAB last year. Baptism-by-fire SEC opener for Brandon.

Right side is the concern (right guard rotation between Donovan Haslam and Shane Mumarov). Jesse Perry (moved to RT) has graded well and was a bright spot last year. Left side more settled: Wendell Moy (when healthy) and David Sanders Jr. Tucker calls Sanders Tennessee’s best OL since Trey Smith — strong tape even against lesser DLs. Colin Simmons’ health is a major Texas concern; if limited, pass rush drops off (Zina Umeozulu next man up).

Tennessee is less RPO-heavy than Texas and closer to its veer-and-shoot roots, but they have schemed more designed QB runs. Brandon is a natural runner (“runs like a deer”) and the best since Josh Dobbs. Expect some improv scrambles if the OL is challenged. Designed runs may be limited.

RB room: DeShaun Bishop is the known name; DeJuan Morris has emerged. Javon Gordon another piece (held out last week). Tennessee ran 45 times for 299 yards vs Georgia Tech and did not want to throw. Confidence if Texas takes the run away and puts it on Brandon is an unknown — Saturday will reveal it.

Defense: Xavier Gilliam (interior DL).

Tucker: Competitive but Texas wins 27-21 (does not cover). Do not let the loss spiral like after Georgia last year.

@TuckerHarlan on X (posted Texas-Tennessee history). General Neyland was a Texan (Aggie). Rick Barnes departure helped Tennessee basketball. YouTube: Mondays 8 ET with Jordan Binkley on Tennessee VOCFB; Tuesdays with Tyler Natuno; SEC show with Jackson Johnson & Andrew Miller. Vols Wire recruiting coverage; CFPHQ on SI. Hosting visitors this weekend.

Focus on Arch: Is he okay? Panic is understandable after pressure and some old habits returned when the OL got beat. Tommy’s view: last year’s poor OL forced bad habits; he reverted when he saw pressure Saturday. Trust the process — better OL and WRs around him. He made big progress last year; expect more this year. Not expecting lights-out vs Tennessee but a relatively clean, confidence-building road SEC game.

Matthew: Close to the 8–23 game “who he is” line for young QBs (Burrow/Luck/Young comps). Next 1–3 games (Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida) will tell a lot. Still thinks a national title is possible even without a massive leap if pieces around him help. Drops (Ryan Wingo, Cam Coleman, Emmett Mosley) must be cleaned up. Colin Simmons health critical for pass rush. Derek Williams filled in well at CB.

Positive for Arch vs Tennessee: Jim Knowles likes three-high safety looks that give cushion. Decisive QBs who get the ball out beat that defense. If Arch hits the back of his drop and delivers, it could be a turning-point game.

Tommy

Matthew

Overall lean: Texas defense (Pete Kwiatkowski) should play championship-level football against a true freshman in a loud but noon environment. Championship-caliber unit, not just a big-game winner.

Show close: Live Tuesdays 7 ET (this one earlier for Tucker). Best bets Thursday. Postgame after Tennessee ~3:15–3:30 ET. Hook ’em.

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Texas-UTSA Postgame | Texas VOCFB

Sponsored open, like/subscribe ask. Texas wins an ugly one. Scoreboard looks like most good teams around the country on this Saturday. Offense struggled. Defense was excellent.

Defense held UTSA to 138 total yards. After UTSA’s first-quarter field goal: 24 yards on 34 plays, 0.7 yards per play (C.J. Vogel stat). Unit was “downright incredible” the rest of the way.

Compared to last year vs. UTSA, the fourth-quarter close-out via the run game was encouraging. Hosts believe this defense can win games in the SEC against good teams. Frustration with the overall product is real but “very explainable.”

A&M lost. Oklahoma beat New Mexico by 8. Miami was pedestrian in the second half Friday. LSU and Ole Miss traded halves. College football is fickle. A 24-point win still leaves confidence in the run game and defense.

Vs. any real SEC team, this offensive performance loses. Arch barely completed 50%. Missed throws he has to hit:

Hosts hold Arch to a high standard because they see other QBs hitting those throws (Sam Leavitt dime to Watkins cited). Arch has not made that type of throw this year. He will have highs and lows; he is a roller coaster.

Pass protection struggled with delayed linebacker blitzes. Tennessee/Jim Knowles will copy it. Offensive line was the first unit to disappoint this season. Misses are now more predictable (overthrows) than last year’s dirt-then-10-feet-over-the-head pattern. Fixable, but he has to be better in Neyland.

Sark appeared to force the issue with Arch early, then leaned on the run to put the game away.

Five rushers over 39 yards. Derek Cooper returned after the Ohio State ankle/boot situation and led the team in carries — surprising. Michael Terry also got work. Run blocking was better than pass protection. Hosts can live with one off game after an emotional Ohio State week.

Kentucky-last-year vibes if this were a better opponent. Other than Arkansas, almost no one left on the schedule lets you play like this. Upcoming QBs (Faison Brandon, Kamario Taylor, Trinidad Chambliss) will make plays; Texas cannot box every offense for 60 minutes. Team will lean on defense + run game. It still comes back to Arch.

Cam Coleman: 4 TDs through 3 games. Wingo had the early splash. Mosley remains the big-catch guy. Never looked as out-of-sync as UTEP last year or the worst of Kentucky. Run game is the fail-safe.

Win at Tennessee and Texas is in great September shape, then a road stretch until Florida at home Oct. 17. Next two games (Tennessee, Oklahoma/Red River) are essentially playoff games. 5-0 makes 9-3 still a strong playoff path. Red River could be a 9-6 type game given both offenses right now.

Limited sample vs. a bad/vanilla Mississippi State defense. Foot injury last year affected mechanics and comfort. Offensive-line scar tissue: feet parallel to the LOS is a “death sentence.” Needs cleaner pockets more consistently. Spencer Shannon drop noted. Pieces around him have to meet him halfway. Started 9-of-12 but the three early misses lingered. Playing more snaps this year; surrounding pieces less clean than 2024. He still has to be the guy who makes it good. How much he improves could decide a title.

Higher chance than most think. Manning family values foundation over money (Peyton/Eli senior years cited). D’Eriq King/Treyveon Henderson-type comments from Cover 3 last year: willing to sit another year if Arch returns. Depends who else comes back (Mosley, Siani, Brandon Baker). Title + No. 1 pick almost certainly sends him to the NFL. Incomplete season opens the conversation. Hosts still expect him to be a top-10 pick and a good NFL QB. Trinidad Chambliss (height be damned, elite in/out of pocket) is the other name they would take first; Baker Mayfield precedent mentioned. A 300-yard, 3-TD game at Tennessee puts Arch back in the No. 1 conversation. Browns/Jets at 1-2 would change the calculus. Dolphins or Cardinals would be cleaner landing spots.

Only one sack. Not concerned in this specific game: after the first drive McCown rarely held the ball more than 2.5 seconds. UTSA took its foot off the gas. Will Henderson speed sweeps were the only real answers. Colin Simmons was on the sideline in a boot late — potential issue heading to a tough environment vs. a young QB. Justice Terry returning would change the pass rush. Tennessee will actually try to win, unlike UTSA playing not to get blown out.

Jeff Brohm talk dismissed (Lincoln Riley-lite, all offense, no defense). Only Curt Cignetti turns B talent into A; everyone else (Day, Smart, Sark included) needs elite talent. Tonight was players not executing, not scheme. Arch must hit the layups. Every loss will bring “bench Arch” and “hire an OC” noise. Neither is the actual problem. KJ Lacey or a new OC does not fix what showed up. Hosts were not expecting domination or treating a sloppy win as sky-is-falling. Win at Tennessee and the season is back on track.

A&M, Oklahoma, and Alabama also had sloppy or poor performances. Getting wins is harder than ever. Coming off the Ohio State high, a messy home win is not shocking. Dust off and beat a good Tennessee team in the second-best environment in the country. “Battle of the UTs.”

Grades video dropping Sunday morning. Cross-content with the Tennessee channel this week. Back live Tuesday. Like and subscribe.

Core takeaways the hosts kept returning to

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TexasVOCFB Best Bets Live: Texas vs. UTSA

Welcome to another live Best Bets. This is UTSA week after the Ohio State win. Sponsor plug for Fandle; all lines presented by them. Ask for likes and subs.

Emmett Mosley anytime TD (plus money) — Matthew (0:24–0:56)

Tommy agrees: the offense was chaotic last week; Mosley came up big in the fourth. Dial one up (screen-and-go or similar) and let him get in the end zone.

Texas –30.5 — Tommy (1:39–2:31)

Matthew adds: Texas should dominate both lines. UTSA has one sack on the year. Bigger line than Texas State because UTSA played a closer game last week.

Cam Coleman over 66.5 receiving yards — Matthew (3:09–3:38)

Tommy: Similar approach to Texas State—fewer passes overall, but when they take shots they put receivers 1-on-1. Coleman could get the number on one play.

Texas team total over 43.5 — Tommy (4:17–5:16)

Matthew: If you take the big spread you basically have to take the team total unless you think they pitch a shutout. He sees UTSA scoring 6–13; Texas has a real shot at 50.

Texas –17.5 first half — Matthew (4:42–6:05)

Tommy: After a sloppy first half vs. Ohio State, they should come out attacking. Possible 24-3 at half, then peek toward Tennessee in the fourth.

Amari Winston over 2.5 receptions — Tommy (7:01–8:15)

Matthew: Winston had a two-catch stretch that could have been four if not for drops. Expect 4–5 targets; three catches is realistic. He’s the main receiving threat among TEs with Townsend out. Spencer Shannon is more of a blocker; Michael Masunis is TE4 right now. Best blocking TE room Sark has had.

Relique Brown over 63.5 rushing yards — Matthew (9:23–9:53)

Texas over 196 rushing yards — Tommy (9:54–10:23)

Relique Brown anytime TD — Tommy (10:25–10:46)

South Carolina vs. Mississippi State

Florida vs. Auburn

Ole Miss vs. LSU (night game in Oxford)

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Hosts: Matthew Miller & Thomas “Tommy” Bresee

Tommy’s main takeaway

Matthew

Talent vs. self-inflicted wounds

Physical identity

Psyche / proof of concept

Hope / in-between (Tommy): Arch will get better at playing the position. Elite athlete who will start in the NFL because of physical tools, but he has to beat teams from the pocket. Josh Allen comp: the running is the cherry, not the cake. Want athleticism as an add-on by year’s end, not the thing he needs to get going every week.

Line: Texas −30.5 (FanDuel). One point higher than Texas State was. Tommy: fair, maybe even cover. Vegas scuttlebutt that Sark wants to lay it on early.

UTSA snapshot (2–0)

What Texas needs to show (mental test)

Predictions

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Video notes: Grading Texas’ dramatic win over Ohio State

Historic comeback win. Position-by-position grades after the game.

0:00–0:18

Grades: Tommy B+ | Matthew C+

0:18–3:42

Matthew (C+): Tale of two halves. First half pretty bad. Down-to-down play still an issue. Explosive throws he will hit — Cam Coleman catch (Coleman should have just run under it instead of the weird almost-dive; it was a C throw). Wingo drop would have been another explosive. Trouble reading the middle of the field; outside is easy, checkdowns come quick. Has to rip the middle more.

Fourth quarter: A++. Best fourth quarter by a Texas QB since Vince Young. Better than any Colt McCoy fourth quarter they remember.

Big-play guy who can make all the throws, but the “boring QB stuff” isn’t all the way there yet. If supporting cast doesn’t drop balls, the conversation is glowing with only nitpicks.

Grades: Matthew B- | Tommy B+

3:42–5:22

Tommy (B+): Two big mistakes — Relique running out of bounds on 3rd down (should have put his head down for the extra yard and avoided 4th down) and the fumble. Outside of that, lights out. Smothers consistent all day. Relique’s physical runs late. Duo they went out and got in the offseason made the difference.

Grade: Both C+ (Matthew could have gone C-)

5:22–7:50

All three of the “big three” had a massive mistake. They bounced back enough. Unit going forward is still elite if they clean up the small stuff. Ohio State took Coleman and Wingo away at times.

Grades: Matthew A | Tommy A-

7:50–10:09

Matthew (A): Blocked really well. Emery Winston second-leading receiver + the biggest 4th-down conversion of the game (biggest play of the game). Needs to lose 10–15 lbs to become a real receiving threat, but he’s a good player and will play a lot. Spencer Shannon one drop (6-7 guy has to catch it when he’s going to get hit). Nick Townsend injury sucks — he would have taken some of Winston’s snaps. Georgia-level blocking. Receiving can improve but they don’t need it.

Tommy (A- only because of Townsend injury): Three guys who can block at an incredibly high level. If Winston is 40 yards a game that’s plenty. Will need TEs more as teams key Coleman/Wingo. Worst-case Saturday: elite blocking, not a ton of receiving — liveable with the weapons around them.

Grades: Matthew A- | Tommy A

10:09–12:02

Tommy (A, on a curve): Didn’t think they would push Ohio State off the ball at any point. They did in the fourth quarter. Drives of 15, 13, and 12 plays don’t happen without interior push. 3.4 YPC including sack yardage. Pass pro very good against a group that can create problems even if not elite. Two weeks in, as good as they could feel about this unit. Solid OL is all they asked for in the offseason to win a title.

Grades: Matthew B+ | Tommy B

12:02–14:42

Tommy (B): Group that can take over games. Simmons sack + 2 TFLs + ton of pressures. Hero Kanua and Maraud Watson lived in the backfield in the second half. Occasional run-game spurts because Muschamp plays light boxes. A+ performance is six sacks and taking over a game — maybe next week at Tennessee vs a young QB. Lance Jackson quiet except one sack; need a second-side guy besides Biles looping up. Expectations for a 5-star second-year guy were 6–8 sacks and flashes; hasn’t shown that yet. Ethan Burke-level is acceptable, but Jackson has a higher ceiling.

Grades: Matthew A | Tommy A-

14:42–17:00

Tommy (A-): Cryer the best defensive player on the field. Communication late after all the halftime adjustments. Three or four plays in a row in Sayin’s face — throwaways and dirted balls. Creative with LBs in pass rush. Biles quieter but no insane mistakes. Brad Spence flash plays. Freshmen not ready for this moment; the three who played were high-level. Weakest group on paper in the offseason, best of the three levels vs Ohio State. Should get better as Atkinson and freshmen get comfortable (Atkinson on the field at LSU).

Grades: Tommy B- | Matthew C+

17:00–22:00

Matthew (C+): Early Muschamp feeling it out with different man coverages — didn’t work. Cade Phillips got beat the most. Bo Masco best of the group. Warren Roberson: physical tools, but he is who he is — penalties, biting on routes. Third-and-long double move by Smith before the sticks; Roberson bites, lucky he only made the tackle by kicking Smith’s legs (could have been a flag). “I’ve seen enough. Need freshmen/sophomores instead.” Jelani McDonald insanely quiet (second-leading tackler but not involved in coverage). Second half better; started putting a safety over the top of Smith. Next time: let Smith get his and shut everyone else down (McEwen is a 3rd/4th-round talent). Indiana will probably do exactly that with their man coverage.

Overall staff: Tommy B+

22:00–28:09

Tommy (B+ staff): Second-half adjustments boxed a really good Ohio State staff. Fourth-down call and early Smith plan were issues (everyone has the Smith problem). Biggest piece moving forward: balance between letting Arch be Arch and running the offense. Arch missed open guys that would have made Sark look better. Give him the middle ground early so he’s comfortable, then the offense can take over. Best version of the offense is the clean pocket version Sark wants — that’s not the QB they have right now. By Game 12 it might be. Third-string QB is probably the closest thing to the point-guard / Mac Jones type Sark’s offense wants. Arch missed spring; reps will help both the spectacular and mundane.

28:09–end

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TexasVOCFB Postgame LIVE: Texas 24, Ohio State 23

Thomas welcomes viewers after laptop issues delaying Matt. Frames the game as one “every other Steve Sarkisian team loses.” Texas trailed 23-3 (or 20-3) entering the fourth and won 24-23.

Matt calls it possibly his favorite Texas win as a fan. Both agree it was a “weird” game full of random plays that likely wouldn’t repeat: Cam Coleman tip-INT, Relique Brown first-half fumble, Ohio State missed FG after already making a longer one.

Arch was “downright incredible” in the fourth. Two huge fourth-down conversions:

Hosts said all week Texas needed special fourth-quarter Arch. He delivered after a shaky first half in which he missed some middle-of-the-field looks (Mosley, Wingo) and held the ball too long on some sacks.

Once it clicked after the fourth-and-8, it snowballed. Second-half Arch was the best player on the field.

Hollywood Smothers and Relique Brown were Texas’ two best offensive players. Smothers is the unofficial offensive MVP; the line bullied Ohio State’s interior on the winning TD run so thoroughly Smothers “could have walked in.”

Brown atoned for the early fumble. Mosley led Texas in receiving and made the critical fourth-down catch plus a key block (though one play he got his face run through). Ryan Wingo dropped an early TD but bounced back with big catches including a score.

Offensive line was “incredible” in pass pro and run blocking. Several sacks attributed more to Arch holding the ball than protection failures (Kenyatta Jackson sack cited as mostly on Arch).

Ohio State dominated the first half; Texas dominated the second. Julian Sayin had a poor second half (overthrows, behind throws; one near-INT if Jeremiah Smith doesn’t get a hand on it). Colin Simmons disruptive with a sack and late holding call. Third-down defense improved after a rough start (Ohio State finished 6-of-14 after starting 5-of-8).

Will Muschamp’s adjustments on Jeremiah Smith were a big talking point—only real Smith win came when Warren Roberson bit on a play he shouldn’t have. Bo Masco strong in man vs. Smith. Grayson Littleton and Kate Phillips had solid reps.

Hosts credit Muschamp not just for scheme but for the fight/will in the locker room. “Something different about this football team.”

Sark “had every answer” after a messy first half. Play-calling after the early fourth-down misfire was strong; bubble screens that frustrated fans set up the Mosley slant that put Texas inside the 5. Late, Sark leaned on the run game when he had time.

Ryan Day/Arthur Smith criticized for taking the foot off the gas. Notable conservative punt from Texas’ 39 with ~11:55 left in the third (fourth-and-4 range) instead of going for the kill shot. Earlier fourth-down decision also second-guessed. Hosts say once Ohio State “turned the light switch off,” they couldn’t turn it back on—classic Day-team complaint.

Ohio State kicker miss in a huge spot (Georgia fans reminded of Noah Ruggles). Super chat joke: Day spends millions on receivers and “Arby’s coupons” on the kicker.

If two or three of those go the other way, it’s a comfortable Texas win or a blowout loss. Hosts refuse to use them as excuses.

Largest Texas comeback since 2007. First win over No. 1 since 2008 (Red River vs. Oklahoma). Comparison to the Georgia game in Austin a couple years ago (similar 20-3 type hole, Texas fought back but fell one play short then; this time they finished it). Red-zone demons vs. Ohio State from recent years exercised on the final smash-mouth TD.

Win is a massive locker-room and confidence boost. “Springboarded.” Team now “scares people when they get off the bus,” which hasn’t been true under Sark.

Still a very good team, but more questions than hosts expected even when OSU was up 20. Weapons beyond Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson look thin (Devin McEwen and Brandon Inniss “fine,” not special). Defense more Patricia scheme than star power this year—no obvious first-round pick on that side; Riley Pettibon budding. Contrast drawn to last year’s Texas talent margins (Wingo vs. Coleman type differences matter in these games).

Ohio State 1-3 in last four games vs. quality (Indiana, Miami, Texas). Playoff path conversation starts now: can 9-3 get in if losses look like this? Hosts think yes unless there’s an embarrassing one.

Next: UTSA. Hosts want a first-half burial to prove mentality (contrast to sleepy Wyoming game after Alabama last year). Then Tennessee (Peyton/Brandon? “kid in phase on Brandon” who can give fits), later Mississippi State, Missouri, etc. One bad loss at the wrong time and Texas is the 9-3 team doing PR stunts again.

Georgia still picked over Texas if they played tomorrow, but Texas and Georgia viewed as the two best teams right now. AP likely bumps Texas to 3 or 4.

Oregon loss to Oklahoma State, Michigan over Oklahoma (John Mateer not impressing vs. good defenses; completion % vs. quality competition ~60%; fifth-year QB who still can’t set feet and throw over the middle). Texas fans get a clean weekend plus Sixth Street.

Enjoy it. Grades and nitpicks (turnovers, Arch middle-of-field reads, first-half third-down D) come tomorrow/Tuesday. “Hook ’em.” Like and subscribe.

Clip-friendly moments

Nitpicks saved for the grades show: early turnovers, Arch hesitation over the middle, first-half third downs, a few safety communication issues. Everything else they called solid-to-excellent once the second half started.

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Best Bets 2 LIVE CALL-IN SHOW

Sark has said all week Texas has not started fast vs Georgia/Ohio State and has played from behind. OSU (Arthur Smith) will feel out Will Muschamp early; Texas has more urgency. Expect a lower-scoring first half that opens later.

Score lean: 14–10 or 13–10 at half.

Matthew agrees: first quarter / quarter-and-a-half is feel-out time. Texas should jump it.

Coleman and Wingo will be the keys. Matchup: Mosley vs freshman Jay Timmons is one of the few mismatches. Mosley was underused vs Texas State. Also likes Nick Townsend / TEs (Spencer Shannon shout).

Tommy: almost a must-hit. Attention on the outside forces the middle. Lean 35+ receiving.

Opened 99.5 earlier; still likes it barely over. Won’t look pretty (Texas State spit-and-sputter), but Sark has to stay on the run. Expect 20-yard bursts from Hollywood Smothers, Relique Brown, and Arch. Avoid sacks and they land 115–120.

Matthew: Texas went over this vs OSU last year and should have stuck with it. Combined rush vs Georgia in those three games likely didn’t even hit this number. Between-the-tackles was dead Week 1; stretch zone, read option, Wingo end-around should work better.

Matthew add-on: If they hit this number, they win pretty easily.

Surprised the number is that low. Needs 75–95 total yards (rush + rec). Projects 45–55 rushing plus checkdowns.

Tommy: two or three one-on-one vs safety/corner = explosives for Smothers and Brown. Expected closer to 50. Market still figuring the Smothers/Brown split after Week 1.

Run game and red zone not fully fixed. Scored on 6-of-7 red-zone trips Week 1; hard to repeat without Arch’s arm. One chunk to Wingo/Coleman, one goal-line (Coleman, TE, or touch pass like last week). Slow start, then two passing TDs down the stretch.

Matthew: Arch probably needs 3 total TDs (any mix of pass/rush) for Texas to win.

That’s why they paid him. Hunt Devin Sanchez (future 1st-rounder, but early for this caliber). Even if he’s not wide open, they will keep throwing it. Could also be a decoy to move the safety and hit Wingo/Mosley opposite.

Matthew: Have to feed No. 1. Same logic as OSU forcing Jeremiah Smith.

Both on it. One 20–25 yard scramble plus a few 5–10 yard keepers. Sacks are the risk; OSU has pocket-collapsers, not a Dylan Stewart/Colin Simmons-level edge. Need designed QB runs (power from gun — Josh Allen comp), read option early to freeze Kenyatta Jackson and the edges.

Last year: first-half Arch stayed in the pocket and Texas struggled; third/fourth quarter when he created, they moved. More confident now. NFL-style lock if sacks stay short.

Tommy: Smith could match his career Texas receiving yards in the first half alone. In OSU’s few losses the last 3 years, Smith still went 100+ and scored — everyone else disappeared.

Two paths:

Matthew: Texas tried doubling Smith twice and got killed by Carnell Tate / Emeka Egbuka. This supporting cast is not that. Fine starting doubled and adjusting. Question of the night: can McEwen do what Tate/Egbuka did?

Line swing: Michigan −4.5 pre-Week 1 → Michigan −2 after kickoff → Oklahoma −5.5/−6.5 now. 8–9 point Vegas move.

Tommy: Aggressive, but Michigan cannot play that poorly again. Whittingham / Jay Hill too good. Still: no QB = nothing vs Brent Venables. Bryce Underwood not there yet. Hard to see Michigan scoring more than 13–14.

Matthew: Underwood’s two Hail Marys = the whole player — one sails out the back, one 65 yards off back foot while getting hit. Talent without the intricacies. “This is basically his first year.” Wouldn’t be shocked if he’s benched / not at Michigan next year; Tommy Carr next up, but not a savior.

Matthew lean: Michigan +points because John Mateer throws picks in big games and the Hill defense played well.

Tommy: Close to selling Underwood stock; next stop is Group of 5 if it keeps going.

Long anti-Arch rant: national title / Heisman / “chosen one” talk, Georgia INTs, OSU sacks (4, “could have been 10”), Cotton Bowl relief appearance did nothing.

Prediction: Ohio State 56–7 (up from 45–7 last year). Texas’ only score late or with the backup.

Hosts make him take the wager: if Texas wins, Caden comes back next Thursday and apologizes to Arch. If OSU wins, hosts stop calling Arch “the chosen one.” Caden accepts.

Hosts’ pushback: oddsmakers have Texas better than 50%; they’d call it a toss-up. Caden: “We ain’t losing.”

Atmosphere: Not Death Valley every Saturday, but this one will be elite. Will Anderson (2022 Bama) called DKR the toughest environment he’d played in. Second-tier with OSU/Georgia; can hit the top tier. CDC renovations, cheaper experience, parking. Hottest/loudest in 20 years — 2006 OSU game comp. Kickoff heat: “100 degrees at 6:30 p.m.” Austin as a city plug.

Small coaching edge to OSU, not massive.

Picking Ohio State until Texas actually beats this matchup. “If not now, when?” Home, QB advantage, even coaching, Ryan Day 1–4 as an underdog — still needs to see it.

Replace OSU with anyone but Georgia (maybe Oregon) and he’d pick Texas. That’s the 1% problem.

Stakes: win and you’re a lock for the CFP / top-4 seed (bye’s value debated after how byes have gone except Indiana). Lose and the mental edge flips to OSU/Georgia the next time, because conditions will never be this good again. Fan-base trust in Sark is on the line until a title or this win.

Loved Coleman-Arch chemistry Week 1. Floor: 10–2 and in the field. Arch should be the Heisman favorite.

Metrics they want Saturday

Totals / scores

Style: Texas can win ugly or in a 42–35. Arch slinging it all night is the worse path.

Three games. Hosts: SEC 2–1.

Kentucky joke from Daryl: “We’ll be No. 1 in the SEC next week.” Hosts love Will Stein; Matthew buying Kenny Minchey. Stein telling fans to sneak beer in = “that’s my coach.”

Next opponent breakdown: UTSA (Tommy likes them as an experienced G6 club with one of the better coaches at that level; CFP dark-horse lean from him).

Cadence:

Hook ’em.

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Texas Longhorns LIVE 118 — “Biggest Regular Season Game of the Sark Era?”

Ball State takeaways for OSU D (2:16–3:31)

Corners / Cam Coleman & Ryan Wingo (3:32–5:55)

Emmitt Mosley vs Jay Timmons (5:56–7:34)

OSU worry vs Texas offense / Texas worry vs OSU D (7:35–10:00)

Patricia wrinkles vs last year (10:00–11:06)

Julian Sayin vs Texas pass rush (11:06–14:33)

Will Muschamp / Texas D vs Ryan Day (14:33–16:10)

Devin McEwen as WR2 (16:10–18:59)

Phillip Daniels / right tackle (18:59–20:16)

OSU players Texas fans may not know yet (20:16–22:33)

Garrison

Riley

Hosts later: first to 30 is the right frame. Both defenses a step back from last year; both offenses loaded with NFL talent.

Plugs

Texas players

Keys

Arguments it is

Arguments it isn’t / caveats

Consensus of the hosts: it is the biggest regular-season game of the Sark era, and the biggest out-of-conference game of it. Variance is enormous either way (bowling-ball-downhill vs creeping doubt).

Both: regardless of winner, two of the best QBs in the country on the same field; scouts will leave wanting one of them. Potential game of the year.

Thursday: Best Bets call-in, 6:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. CT (StreamYard link in comments).

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Texas Longhorns Live — Best Bets vs. Texas State + Thursday Call-In

Tommy’s card: Texas -29.5 | Over 59.5 | Texas -7.5 3Q | Wingo o48.5 rec | Cooper ATD

Process over final score (USC–San Jose State reminder):

If it’s not put away by half (~28-3 / 28-7), Ohio State week gets nervy.

Playbook vs. Texas State (Ohio State next):

In-game / season metrics:

Magnificent Seven title contenders (Darrell’s list; both hosts agree): Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Miami.

Sark bulletin-board material: Rutgers 7, UMass 14 in the second quarter (after it had been 7–7). Cheap motivation without reaching back to App State.

See how the card hits. Postgame Saturday. “We’ll see you on Saturday.”

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