The Mental Models Daily Podcast

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: When Randomness Masquerades as Skill


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The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is a logical fallacy where someone cherry-picks or selectively focuses on data that supports their argument while ignoring data that contradicts it. The fallacy gets its name from the idea of a sharpshooter shooting at a barn and then painting the bullseye around the bullet holes afterward. In other words, it's creating the appearance of accuracy or significance after the fact by selecting favorable data points and ignoring the broader context.


🎯 Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: When we paint targets around random data.

Don't cherry-pick facts to fit your conclusion. Question patterns: are they real or just coincidence?

Stay sharp, think critically!

#TexasSharpshooterFallacy #CognitiveBias #CriticalThinking #MentalModels


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