Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#HRW #wheat #drought #rain #frost #CFTC #NOAA #2022 #USDA #cropprogress #rumors #China #soybeans #PNW #weather #Midwest #CanadianPrairies #Brazil #corn #dry #Kalshi #commodity #Trump #blockade #Isreal #Lebanon

NOAA reported that U.S. HRW wheat was 70% in a drought ties the 2022 drought! USDA crop progress reported 47% of the HRW wheat in poor/very poor. The weather forecast looks wet and cool for the U.S. Midwest with snow for the Canadian Prairies. Central Brazil Safrinha corn crop looks dry for the next 2-weeks. Rumors that China was looking to but old crop U.S. soybeans out of the PNW. Kalsi (betting platform) has entered the commodity space with bets of where corn futures will be in the future. Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, but blockade remains while the ceasefire with Israel and Lebanon was extended by 3 weeks + CFTC.

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#crudeoil #stocks #straitofhormuz #farmbureau #fertilizer #KCwheat #drought #USPlains #USDA #cropprogress #bitcoin #Iran #canola #cattleonfeed #CFTC

WTI crude oil drops $12 as Strait of Hormuz reopens temporarily. Stocks higher, U.S. $ Index lower.
Farm Bureau fertilizer survey = farmers waiting too long to book fertilizer.
KC wheat futures new contract highs as drought expands. USDA crop progress shows KC wheat conditions at 45% poor/very poor! 14-day U.S. weather forecast remains dry for U.S. Plains/SE but wet for Midwest & cooler by end of the month.
Bitcoin resilient despite the war in Iran + canola margins at record highs.
Cattle of Feed Report and more.

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#USDA #12Hour #ceasefire #USDA #dud #planting #season #HRW #wheat #rain #livecattle #footandmouth #China #pork #exports #CFTC #April #Hormuz

 A 2-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasted 12 hours. The USDA April crop report was a dud. The 2026 planting season does not look early. U.S. HRW wheat country needs a lot more rain. Live cattle traded to new record highs! Foot & Mouth disease in China, U.S. pork exports +2% + CFTC update and more.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #surprise #wheat #sunflower #cotton #crudeoil #urea ##April Midwest #Plains #CornBelt #wheat #cropprogress #funds #soyoil #oilseed #grain #HappyEaster USDA provided a bullish surprise with lower wheat acres, but what does higher sunflower acres suggest? WTI crude oil futures soared 13% while U.S. Gulf urea prices also traded higher. The U.S. Midwest looks wet to start the month of April while the South/Southeast and Western Corn Belt (Plains) remains dry. The national U.S. wheat ratings in the 1st USDA crop progress of the season next week will look ugly. Funds are record long soy oil futures, and the oil complex and near a record long in the grain and oilseed complex.

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Next week's USDA reports (acreage/stocks) could be a surprise/market moving. RVO’s (new blending biofuel requirements) were as expected with no big surprises and already baked into futures. E15 summer waiver just simply good optics. Markets are skeptical that the war in Iran ends soon with no diplomatic off ramp. The Trump/Xi meeting in China now May 14 – 15. March 1 USDA hogs and Pigs report was friendly/bullish + CFTC and more.

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#crudeoil #higher #longer #stagflation #slower #economic #growth #inflation #Trump #Xi #April #Ag #Appreciation #Paris #Chinese #dry #weather #CFTC #winterwheat #wildfires #funds #metals #ag #energy

Fears are starting to grow that higher crude oil futures for longer could see slower economic growth and higher inflation BUT….

At a meeting in Paris, the Chinese team said they would be willing to buy more non-U.S. soybean row crops????

Trump’s delay with the Xi meeting (pushed out to end of April) was replaced with the Ag Appreciation Day” on March 27th, 2026.

A dry weather pattern for the Central Plains/U.S. winter wheat country causing are wildfires in NE and breaking record temps for March.

Stocks are officially in a correction as funds continue to sell the metals to buy energy and ag + more.

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Could this be the beginning of the return of higher inflation and a repeat of 2022 when corn traded to a high of $8.27/bu? Policy will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz military can if not we need to destroy demand and send crude oil futures much higher! The ag commodities remain undervalued vs. other commodities with the basket up +4.9%. USDA March Crop report a dud, and inflation will be higher in the coming months + more.

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Historically wars like the 2026 Iran war are bullish hard assets like grains, metals and energy! The funds are spooked and do not want to be short, but do they price in the news over time, similar to the Ukraine/Russian war that started on Feb. 24, 2022? A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the key to the surge in crude oil, natural gas prices and fertilizer prices.  Grains are breaking out to new contract highs as a hedge against inflation.

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The funds (managed money) crowd/spec are now net long the grain complex!  The AI King Nvidia reported 4th quarter earnings that surpassed Wallstreet estimates but the stock falls? Trump retaliates against U.S. supreme court decision to impose an additional 15% global tariff. FDN (First Day Notice) and month end fund selling in March futures were absent in 2026. Crude oil futures adding more geo-politics, weather turns more active for March, plus South America weather and the latest CFTC report.

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Better technicals, hedge fund buying on hope of more Chinese and soy oil demand optimism from new U.S. biofuel policies in 2026 is a BIG WIN! Could the U.S. supreme courts ruling that struck down Trump's tariffs derail the Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans? USDA Ag Outlook Forum projections this week were friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat BUT……. Wildfires in the U.S. Plains another warning sign of a possible drought in 2026 + March First Day Notice blues and more.