Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #China #soybeans #ChatGPT #truce #Trump #November #corn #cattle #beef #stock #AI #NASDAQ #NVDA #bubbleAfter a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump? 12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum. U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B. U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days. But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively. The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has. Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers. After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble. 75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk! It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!

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#USDA #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #apec #Brazil #Mexico #screwworm #cattle #federalreserve #Canada #tariffs #Columbia #nvidia #nasdaq

The market was hoping for a US-China trade deal, but we got a trade “truce” for now from the keenly awaited Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC Summit.
China commits to minimum purchase commitments of 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans during the “current season” and a minimum of 25 MMT annually through 2028.
U.S. Treasury Sec Bessent said other Asian countries have agreed to buy additional 19 MMT of US soybean.
Soybean futures trading above $11 now- they normally tend to rally to $12.
As expected, US Fed cuts interest rates by -0.25% again in October to 3.75%–4.00%. No further cuts promised for this year but trade looking out to the Dec FOMC.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 2.25% but raised concern over trade war damage.
Soy meal futures, remarkably, have had 14 consecutive higher close sessions. A bull market in soybeans is a bull market in soy meal!
Cattle futures lower as funds unwind out of cattle for now due to Trump headlines and objective to lower beef prices.
All major stock indices climb to new record highs. It was Mag 7 reporting week, which had mixed results. But we now have the first $5 trillion company in Nvidia!

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #Busan #Brazil #Mexico #screwworm #cattle #russia #putin #Ukraine #AgWeb #AgTalk #DTN #CPI #Canada #tariffs #Columbia The U.S. has confirmed a meeting with Trump and Xi on October 30th, 2025, in Busan, South Korea. There have been rumors that China is buying soybeans from the PNW under the radar while the U.S. government is shutdown. Trump wants to import 4 times more Argentina beef to lower high sky U.S. beef prices has funds liquidating out of fear as Brazil and Trump are expected to meet in South Korea next week as well, and Mexico is meeting with the Trump team next week to try and reopen the border amid New World Screwworm. All 3 are weighing on live cattle/feeder futures. More geo-politics as Trump decided to sanction 2 large Russian oil producers as he remains frustrated with Putin over the war in Ukraine, which sent crude oil futures surging 9.3% for the week! There was more evidence from a AgWeb survey, DTN and AgTalk that the 2025 U.S. corn yield is coming in much lower than many are forecasting, now in the 167 – 177 bpa range. U.S. CPI in September slightly better than expected at 3.0% was enough to pave the way for another U.S. interest rate cut next week (2nd consecutive month) sent stocks markets to new record highs, as 85% of 3rd quarter earnings have thus far beat estimates ahead of the MAG 7 earnings to be released next week. Trump called of the U.S. Canada trade negotiations over a Reagan ad on anti-tariffs. They were expected to seal a deal in South Korea next week. New higher tariffs could be in the cards for Colombia as Trump calls the President a “drug lord.” Columbia bought 2% of U.S. exports in 2024. Heavy rain in North China is rotting corn harvest at 70%. It's only raining once a week in Central Brazil vs. every other day with 100-degree temps stressing soybean crops. The 2-week outlook thru Nov. 7 is concerning (a yellow flag) but its early.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: https://riskmanagement.farms.com/?ret...#USDA #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #crudeoil #cattle #embargo #cookingoil #yield #Brazil #canada #canola #tariffs #EV #cattle #crudeoil #bitcoin The U.S./China trade war has escalated after Trump threatened to slap 100% Tariff on China by Nov. 1 after China placed some export restrictions on rare earth minerals. But Trump overstepped/overreacted but the meeting with Xi at the end of the month was still on even after Trump threatened China with an embargo on used cooking oil. The U.S./China were going to meet and talk about trade issues today ahead of the meeting with Xi/Trump in South Korea. Despite the increased tensions and noise both the corn and soybean futures held support at $4.10 and $10 with a corrective bounce higher on news that U.S. corn yields are a concern. U.S. soybean prices are $0.90 to $1.50 cheaper than Brazil. News that China was willing to remove the tariffs on Canada if Canada would lift the 100% levies on Chinese EV vehicles sent funds short covering in canola futures. Canadian and Chinese met on Friday to discuss ag issues like canola and meat. Stocks fell on the increased rise in tensions with the U.S./China and concerns over bad regional loans, but investors shake off the news on strong Q3 earnings from the big U.S. banks. Wheat continued to trade to new 5-year lows while cattle were breaking out to new record highs as Trump was working his magic on lower U.S. beef prices. U.S. crude oil continued its trend lower as did Bitcoin.

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#usda #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #crudeoil #SouthKorea #debasement #gold #silver #wheat #fungicide #SouthernRust #Gaza #Isreal #Brazil #Lula #beef #drought #MidwestTrump cancels Xi meeting in South Korea at the end of the month as China has become hostile on rare earth minerals. We would not be surprised if Trump were to retaliate again with 145% tariff on China on the Nov. 10th pause deadline. China has pulled the rug under U.S. farmers again. It’s the 10th day with the U.S. government shut down what if it goes beyond 35 days and what if we do not get a Nov. 9 USDA crop report or the USDA slow walks lower yields in this report? The approved U.S. $12 - $13 billion for of U.S. farmers could also be delayed. It would help improve basis as they delay selling bushels. The “debasement” trade has become mainstream and popular with investors and a key reason why gold and silver continue to hit new fresh record highs. U.S. harvest could be 40% complete, 50% on soybeans and 60% on winter wheat Planting. In Ontario, 80% of the soybeans are harvested while corn is 1-2% harvested. Less wheat acres are being planted because the price sucks. South American is 9.15% planted on soybeans. The latest news on 2025 U.S. yields is that even if farmers applied 2 fungicide passes to protect against Southern Rust yields are still lower by 10-15 bpa. There were rumors this week that the narrowing in the soybean futures spreads and basis could be China buying U.S,. soybeans under the radar? A peace deal in Isreal/Gaza means lower crude oil futures as funds remove the geo-political risk premiums. A potential meeting between Brazil’s Lula and Trump could see the 50% tariff removed on beef imports and weigh on cattle futures down the road. The 2025 U.S. Midwest drought is very concerning as we end 2025.

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#USDA #Trump #XI #China #corn #soybean #canola #crudeoil #stocks #AI #MFP #Sasktachewan #hog

Trump's post about a meeting with XI in 4-weeks with the main topic of discussion the soybean trade was bullish offsetting a bearish USDA Sept. 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that found 200 million more bushels of old crop 24/25 U.S. corn bushels. The U.S. government shutdown is just more noise, but it does mean no USDA October crop report next week delaying the 2025 U.S. yield forecast by a month. Stocks have traded to new record highs suggesting the shutdown will be short lived but instead continue to chase the AI story. Trump will announce next Tuesday support for U.S. farmers in the tune of $10 billion. In 2018 the U.S. soybean farmer got $1.65/bu in MFP payments and in 2019 $2.05/bu. WTI crude oil is breaking below a key support and pivot point at $61.74/barrel. 2025 December corn futures creating a head & shoulders bottom formation. With Chinese U.S. soybean purchases at 0 for the 25/26 marketing year the trade thinks the rest of the world is filling the gap but it’s worse than 2018! With no weekly U.S. export sales report due to a U.S. government shutdown U.S. corn exports were still estimated at record strong levels. The trade thinks that 2025 Canadian Prairies canola production is closer to 21 MMT and an average yield of 42 bpa but very large farmers in the garden spot of SE Saskatchewan are reporting below average yields and production to fall back to 19 mmt???

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#USDA #China #corn #soybean #trade #interestrates #Mexico #Cattle #SouthAmerica #Argentina #inflation #hogs #gold #silver #trade #drought

Argentina suspended agro-export taxes early this week, from 26%, to increase their US dollar reserves. It lasted for 3 days by which time Argentina raised $7 bil.This came at the wrong time as the US & China are working towards agreeing to a trade deal. Cheap soybean supply from Argentina works against that objective as China does not now need immediate US soybean supply. They reportedly scooped up 35 cargoes of Argentine soybeans. China's soybean reserves are said to be 6 MMT.The US also reportedly has agreed to provide financial aid to Argentina. US corn YTD export sales for 25/26 at record highs, with no Chinese business.Drought in the US Midwest remains in place & near-term weather outlook remains dry, leading to a dry crop finish. "Safe Haven" commodity trade momentum picks up as gold goes to record high territory due to economic uncertainty, trade wars, and expectations another US Fed rate cut.Headline news that India is looking to buy more US crude oil and work towards a US-India trade deal. US tariffs are now at 50%.

USDA Sept. Hogs & Pigs report shows more contraction rather than expansion- supportive for hog futures.

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#USDA #China #corn #soybean #trade #Canada #interestrates #Mexico #Ukraine #Russia #Taiwan #Apec #SouthKorea #USMCA #StatsCanada #Cattleonfeed #SouthAmerica #butterTrump/Xi had a productive call today on trade, fentanyl, an end to the Ukraine/Russia war and TikTok but it looks like Chinese tariffs will have to be extended for an additional 90-days to mid-February of 2026 as Trump may not visit China until early 2026 and Xi will make a U.S. visit thereafter. They will still meet at the APEC summit in South Korea, but it does not look like a trade deal by than. It looks like the farmers will have a winter without China buying U.S. soybeans and will have to wait until 2026? The short-term momentum has turned bearish as we need to buy more time and soybean futures break back below all moving averages. U.S. and Canada lowered interest rates this week with Canada’s 8th cut down to 2.5% while the U.S. Fed lowered interest rates for the first time in 9 months. Mexico and Canada are working closely together on trade ahead of the negotiations on USMCA review in 2026. The Canadian economy remains weak, so more cuts are most likely in the cards, and the U.S. Fed said 2 more cuts in 2025 and 1 in 2026. Do not fight the Fed or the tape!A U.S. framework trade deal with Taiwan was announced with $10 billion ag purchases over 4 years but this is lower than their 2024 purchases. 2025 U.S. crop yields keep coming in lower than last year so that begs the question whether yields come in lower than last year's yields at 179.3 and 50.7 bpa. We will know more in the USDA Oct. 9th crop report. Stats Canada provided a model-based August production update projecting higher wheat and canola crops as farmers are seeing better than expected yields with more than 50% of the harvest complete. It remains dry in the ECB/South into the end of October in the long-term forecasts. The winter 3-month forecast is wet in the U.S. Midwest but dry in the south a typically La Nina forecast. South American expected to get rain this coming week that could increase the soybean planting pace. U.S. butter prices fall 38% to a 2021 low as excess supplies weigh on prices.

Try our Ag marketing program for free: Home | Farms.com Risk Management#USDA #corn #soybean #wheat #China #NorthDakota #testweight #moisture #Bismarck #SouthDakota #AgRural#Brazil #SouthAmerica #ECB #Flash #drought #cattle The USDA surprised with higher U.S. corn acres than expected but both 25/26 corn and soybean ending stocks were not that much removed from last months forecast with slightly lower yields. The North Dakota farmer fears the triple 40’s – 40% moisture, 40-pound test weight and 40 bpa! The last time was 2005 and this past weekend both corn and soybeans got smoked in far western North Dakota near Bismarck and northern parts of South Dakota. USDA crop progress reports showing IA corn at 80% G-E and WS at 82% G-E is overstating the crops condition. Farmers harvested soybeans in ECB on Sept. 9th at 16% moisture. Illinois and Indiana had record nighttime temps in 2025. AgRural is forecasting a record 180.92 mmt crop for Brazil in 2026 a 5.3% jump to 6.6 billion bushels! South America looks dry though mid October forecasting no early monsoons? And so does the U.S. ECB as the “flash” drought turns 90-days long! Some more good news for canola as on headline news that a meeting with Canadian and Chinese officials as constructive and could lead to a pragmatic solution. Plus, a U.S. delegation in China this past week may lead to a meeting with Trump/Zi in Mid-November at the Apec Summit and result in a trade deal. Cattle futures plunged this past Tuesday, but a correction was needed as the funds overshot the mark short-term.

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#USDA #China #Japan #tariffs #canola #Trump #Blackswan #corn #soybeans #Southernrust #tarspot #89yeardrought #fungicide #Iowa #frost #ears #pods #brookerollins #goldenage #Arkansas #biofuel #canola $8 billion trade deal with Japan to but U.S. corn, soybeans and ethanol was a WIN for farmers. The U.S. courts ruling that made Trumps reciprocal tariffs illegal is a short-term set back for future investments and trade deals? Southern rust in Iowa is so severe that it has covered 60-70% of the corn real estate leaving very little room for tarpot! 84% of the Iowa corn crop is still good-excellent, 3% poor – very poor? If U.S. farmers did not apply fungicide only 20% because of low grain prices and took a risk, we have a problem, Houston! Is this the start of the 89-year drought cycle that was delayed by a year? The lows are in for corn. History often repeats but not necessarily rhyme. OPEC+ is looking to unwind a 1.65 million barrel per day voluntary cut at Sundays next meeting bearish WTI crude oil as the summer driving season comes to an end.Frost is early in 2025 and a concern, but it will not kill the growing season.Next Friday's USDA crop report is about record ears and pods so we would not be surprised to see 190 and 54 bpa in the U.S. corn and soybean crops respectively. U.S. cotton/rice farmers are struggling with 1/3 looking to go out of business as Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the “Golden Age” is coming. Canadian government unveils new measures to help Canadian prairies canola growers with a $370 million biofuel production incentive. Soy oil futures closed the gap up from June of 25 now we can resume the uptrend.