Each year one of the most eagerly anticipated annuals is the In Gold We Trust report from Switzerland’s Incrementum. As has been the case for a few years now they are pre releasing a teaser chart pack of what’s to come without any written explanation. As we noted last week, the set up now with persistent inflation and slowing growth is that dreaded financial bogey-man, stagflation. We discuss how various assets perform in such an environment.

An Australian based specialist gold consultancy has revealed that Australia has indeed reclaimed the mantel of 2nd biggest gold producer in the world from Russia and is even flirting with taking the number one spot.

With all the talk of commodities like oil and nickel shooting up, precious metals, kings of the commodities, are heating up. Why bother holding the physical when you can just buy shares in a miner? Mining is a very resource intensive business, energy generation, transportation and construction are all major input costs, not to mention labor. While miners have unlimited potential costs, the metal itself has never gone bankrupt.

Bitcoin markets have seen another week of low volatility and price consolidation, trading up from $37,680 US and towards the range high of $42,312 over the weekend. As prices trade within this narrow range, the odds of higher volatility in the near-term build.

Today we share 3 very compelling charts for silver. This first shows something that has only happened 2 times previously back to 1970 and heralded 2200% and 730% gains thereafter.

Meme stock and Reddit market darling AMC has just taken a 22% strategic position in Hycroft Mining (NASDAQ: HYMC) in a US$27.9 million all cash trade. The pre-production silver miner has 600 million ounces of silver alongside 15 million ounces of gold in northern Nevada. With continued demand for the precious metal outstripping demand, AMC may be the one of the first listed companies outside of the mining sector racing to secure ounces in the ground.

As we previewed yesterday the US Fed last night raised rates by 0.25% to tackle rampant inflation. Big deal right? However markets reacted strongly because the same markets who have been pricing in 7 rates hikes this year were surprised when…. the Fed agreed!! Yep, the Fed is now openly forecasting a rate hike at every one of its remaining 6 monthly meetings this year. Buy the rumour sell the fact saw shares rip higher, the USD falling and the yield curve flattened like a pancake. Gold called BS on it all and rallied. The problem locally is the AUD rallied too and took all those gains…. For now…

Unless you live under a rock, you may have heard the US Fed meet tonight and will almost certainly raise US rates for the first time since December 2015. Since we left the gold standard, there is a 100% track record of every reversal of rate policy triggering a recession soon after. 100%. And yet last night growth shares surged, the NASDAQ up over 3%, and gold, silver and bonds all came off. Why?

Bitcoin accumulation trends have softened in the short term, despite extremely constructive long-term demand trends. The potential energy for a capitulation event is in place but is yet to manifest as it has in previous market cycles.

We often talk about the supply, demand, price equation in a market where hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of ‘paper assets’ try to buy the meagre (now) $8 trillion of gold or more importantly $1.5 trillion of investable gold. You can’t simply change the supply of gold. Period. That leaves price as the only parameter that can adjust to fit that all in. It has been some time since we shared Exters Pyramid but it is timely to do so again now.