The Bitcoin market is in a delicate equilibrium, with limited incoming demand, alongside a slowing sell-side. Let’s analyse exchange flows specifically to assess the characteristics of Bitcoin sales.

Friday night was another volatile one on global markets with the bearish news of the Russian attack on the power plant and the conflicting news of the US NFP employment figures showing a much stronger than expected surge in new jobs of 678K (v 423K expected) but also unexpectedly weak wage growth of just 0.5% amid the rampant inflation reinforcing Main Street America is going backwards. This sets the scene for Bloomberg’s Spot Commodity Index printing its biggest jump since the stagflation crisis of 1974.

Russia’s Central Bank has upped rates to 20% p.a to cajole depositors to keep their currency in bank coffers, but for many, that offer hasn’t proven quite enticing enough. The last two days have seen long lines for ATMs across the country. Major bank Sberbank has seen a 97% cash outflow from it’s UK listed equity and the Ruble has been butting up against a rate of 1:117 all week. We discuss fractional banking at both the individual and sovereign level…

Global markets have faced a very sobering week, as armed conflict breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. As a global macro asset, and with markets that never close, the price of Bitcoin was quite volatile in response. This week the market traded down to a low of $34,474, before rapidly recovering to a high of $44,200 this morning.

With “What does SWIFT do? And why does it matter to Russia?” trending on Twitter, it seems like WWIII is quickly turning into a conflict defined by digital payments. Opposing forces are seeking to freeze each other’s assets and cut off each other’s payment gateways with almost as much tenacity as those in armed conflict on the ground and in the air. Does Ukraine represent a tectonic shift in global payments and currencies?

An interview with Collective Shift.

The outlook for silver demand is promising for 2022, with global silver demand forecast to rise to a record high of 1.112 billion ounces (Boz) in 2022.

Crescat Capital’s latest research letter talks to a “Trifecta of Macro Imbalances” that presents what they call a “highly explosive mix” for the economy. We outline the implications for the broader economy and precious metals in particular.

Bitcoin bulls face several headwinds, ranging from dwindling demand on-chain, to over 4.7M BTC held at an unrealised loss.

While the world’s central banks have been buying government bonds with freshly printed currency hand over fist since the GFC, the Bank of Japan stands out as both the first to monetise debt in such a way, starting in 2001, but also facilitating Japan holding the title of world’s most indebted nation with a debt to GDP ratio of over 260%. On news they will buy unlimited bonds at 0.25%, the contrast between the BoJ and western central banks is telling, and we discuss.