The American Conservative Morning Briefing

Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 8th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Eight months into the Iran War, administration claims of "winning the battle of Hormuz" obscure a basic fact: the strait was open before the war began, while the U.S. now spends $1.3 billion a month on a blockade with no end in sight. Brent crude sits near $100 a barrel and diesel shipments remain scarce, with experts warning that Tehran may be allowing the strait to stabilize only to maximize the shock of its next escalation. The U.S. quietly pulled its B-1 bombers from Britain's Fairford air base over the weekend after intelligence pointed to a possible Iranian-linked drone plot, raising fresh questions about the vulnerability of America's global basing network. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing war with Iran, now in its eighth month, and growing claims from the administration and its allies that the United States is winning what's being called the "battle of Hormuz." Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that the Straits of Hormuz are open, with nearly as much oil flowing out now as before the conflict began. The phrase itself was coined by Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who argues Iran has already lost control of the waterway. But as Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, that framing elides a basic fact: the Strait of Hormuz was open before the Iran War began. Day notes that in the last two weeks, Iran has escalated attacks on Hormuz shipping, striking roughly a dozen vessels, with at least one ship turning back on orders from Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities told TAC that the battle isn't over and could stretch on indefinitely. The costs are substantial. The U.S. is spending an estimated 42 million dollars a day—about 1.3 billion dollars a month—enforcing its blockade on Iranian maritime exports. Roughly a third of deployed U.S. naval assets worldwide are now dedicated to the mission. Brent crude is hovering around 100 dollars a barrel, up from 70 before the war, and the Wall Street Journal reports that while crude is moving, diesel shipments remain minimal. Day writes that higher prices are themselves what's enticing captains, insurers, and carriers to risk the passage—meaning more oil flowing does not translate into relief at the pump. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute suspects Tehran may be allowing the strait to stabilize precisely to maximize the shock when it reopens hostilities. Day concludes that public opposition to the war has just hit an all-time high. Related to that story, the Washington Post reported Tuesday that the United States withdrew its bombers from Britain's Fairford air base over the weekend amid concerns about a potential Iranian drone attack. As Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative, about a dozen B-1 bombers were pulled after British authorities announced that several men had been arrested for plotting an attack on the base. The Post, citing a British official and two people familiar with the decision, said U.S. intelligence had received warning of a potential strike. Vice President J.D. Vance said the planes had been moved out of, quote, "an abundance of caution." Russo also notes that despite improved transit numbers through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran struck eleven ships in the past week, and the Iran-aligned Houthis claimed strikes on airports in Riyadh, Abha, and Aden. Brent crude opened Wednesday at 101 dollars per barrel, with national gas prices averaging 4 dollars and 37 cents a gallon. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, October 7th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo warns that with debt service now consuming nineteen percent of federal spending, Americans face a stark choice between tolerating persistent inflation or submitting to a genuine age of austerity that neither party is preparing voters to accept. Ted Snider reports that Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise first-round lead over President Lula sets up an October 25 runoff shaped in part by an aggressive Trump administration pressure campaign, including tariffs, terror designations, and a last-minute suspension of consular services. On day 221 of the Iran War, the Houthis deny losing Red Sea coastal territory and claim strikes on Riyadh's main airport, as President Trump promises a swift end to the conflict and tumbling oil prices ahead of the midterms. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a sobering look at the nation's fiscal trajectory. Servicing the federal debt now costs the United States about one-point-two trillion dollars a year. That's roughly nineteen percent of annual federal spending, a line-item second only to Social Security. Bond markets have been tightening credit, growth is under pressure, and revenues are likely to disappoint even as the cost of carrying the debt climbs higher. As Jude Russo writes in The American Conservative, the old campus-left complaints about austerity after the 2008 crisis obscured a more complicated picture. Federal spending in fact kept growing through those years, and the bailouts and quantitative easing of that era largely bolstered financial institutions rather than Main Street, helping fuel both the Tea Party and Occupy movements. Whatever restraint remained vanished during Covid and the Biden presidency, with a second round of stimulus and sweeping packages for green energy and semiconductors. The result, Russo argues, was the worst inflation since the 1980s, and American voters delivered unified Republican government in 2024 in response, and may well throw Republicans out of Congress this year on the same grounds. Russo's point is that something has to give. Either Americans make political peace with running the economy hot and tolerating inflation, or real austerity arrives and clears the decks. Yet neither party, he observes, is preparing the country for that choice. Democrats are debating how much socialism to embrace. Republicans, Russo writes, have decided they don't mind cranking on the taps for their own priorities, from confronting Iran to pro-natalist policy. A statesman running in 2028, he suggests, would be sounding the alarm now. Instead, the politicians are likely to pass the buck until the music stops. Turning to the hemisphere, Brazilians went to the polls Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that confounded expectations. Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, edged out incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 47 percent to 45. Because no candidate cleared a majority, the race moves to a runoff on October 25. Da Silva, who had expected a first-round victory, now faces a competitive second round. Writing for The American Conservative, Ted Snider reports that one factor in Bolsonaro's strong showing was active intervention by the Trump administration. Snider traces a longer American history of involvement in Brazilian politics, from the 1964 coup against João Goulart to Washington's accommodation of the government that replaced Dilma Rousseff. In the current cycle, Snider writes, three Democratic senators—Jeanne Shaheen, Peter Welch, and Tim Kaine—have accused the administration of efforts to interfere with and potentially undermine Brazil's general election. Snider details several specific actions. Tariffs were imposed on Brazil, with President Trump citing what he called insidious attacks on free elections as justification. Flávio Bolsonaro's brother Eduardo lobbied for those tariffs. The administration designated two Brazilian criminal groups as terrorist organizations over da Silva's objections, and directed funds to right-wing civil society organizations. The U.S. consulate in São Paulo convened anti-Lula influencers, and consular services were abruptly suspended two days before the election. Latin America expert Mark Weisbrot told TAC that Trump made clear Brazilians would face punishments if they didn't elect Bolsonaro. Snider notes that in the last seven Latin American presidential elections since early 2025, right-wing candidates have won, and President Trump has publicly boasted about the role he played in several of them. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, October 6th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. In France, Marine Le Pen leads the 2027 presidential race with foreign policy views that Eldar Mamedov argues outclass the mainstream, calling for an end to the war with Iran and a serious peace conference on Ukraine. In Britain, Iain Macwhirter warns that Prime Minister Andy Burnham's embrace of 1970s-style nationalization and wealth taxes is already spooking bond markets, with the 30-year gilt yield breaking 6 percent after his Liverpool conference speech. and now for the details. We begin in France, where the 2027 presidential race is coming into focus, and the frontrunner is Marine Le Pen of the National Rally. According to recent polling from Toluna-Harris Interactive, Le Pen would defeat the centrist former prime minister Édouard Philippe by 57 to 43 percent in a runoff, and would beat the left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 69 to 31. Writing for The American Conservative, Eldar Mamedov argues that whatever one thinks of the rest of her program, Le Pen's foreign policy views deserve a serious hearing from Americans who favor realism and restraint. On the U.S. war with Iran, Le Pen has flatly questioned the strategic logic, warning of global inflation and arguing it is better to persuade Washington not to wage war on an ancient civilization of 90 million people. On Ukraine, she has warned the conflict will either draw NATO into a third world war or drag on for a century, and she has called for a major peace conference including Germany, Poland, and Turkey, with direct talks involving both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. Mamedov notes her position is not without gaps. Her pledge to halt French military aid to Ukraine, he writes, is not a serious policy unless paired with a broader strategy that Kiev and Moscow can both accept. And her party's close ties to Israel leave open questions about whether national interest or ideological anti-Islamism would guide her Middle East policy. Still, Mamedov's central point is that the French mainstream has little to offer in response. President Emmanuel Macron is playing up the Russian threat in terms that, according to Le Figaro's Georges Malbrunot, French intelligence officers themselves consider overstated. Philippe accuses Le Pen of endangering Europe. And Macron's protégé Gabriel Attal has given a speech in Reims calling for a "United States of Europe" to be built in a matter of years. Mamedov concludes that if the French establishment keeps ceding the language of diplomacy and peace to those it calls extremists, it should not be surprised when voters follow. Across the Channel in Britain, Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham used his party's conference in Liverpool last week to announce what amounts to a return to the politics of the 1970s: nationalization of utilities, wealth taxes, rent controls, and even a push to rejoin the European Union. YouGov polling suggests British voters are receptive. Iain Macwhirter, writing for The American Conservative, warns readers to remember what that era actually looked like. In the 1970s, he recalls, British shipbuilding, car manufacturing, and steelmaking were effectively destroyed by militant unions and weak management. Coal strikes forced a three-day work week. Inflation peaked at 27 percent in 1976, and Labour Chancellor Denis Healey had to go hat in hand to the International Monetary Fund. Macwhirter notes that the markets are already flashing warning signs. After Burnham's speech, the 30-year gilt yield briefly broke 6 percent, the highest in three decades. Some observers believe the current Labour chancellor, John Healey, may yet follow his 1970s namesake to the IMF if borrowing and taxation keep climbing. Macwhirter also reminds readers that the era Burnham dismisses as four decades of failure saw growth and wages rise faster than ever, until the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, taxes have climbed to their highest levels since the 1950s, public debt has passed three trillion pounds, and net immigration hit nearly a million in 2023, much of it invited in under Boris Johnson's Conservatives. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, Macwhirter writes, will have to eat humble pie for her party's role in those failures when she addresses her own conference in Birmingham this week. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Monday, October 5th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Peter Van Buren argues the Taiwan status quo forged in the 1970s has quietly held for nearly half a century, and the silence on Taiwan at the Trump-Xi summit was diplomacy working as designed, not failing. Jack Hunter contends that Pete Hegseth's apparent relish for war, from his new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs to his "no quarter" rhetoric, places the Defense Secretary outside the conservative tradition of Nisbet, Kirk, and Taft. and now for the details. We begin this morning with Taiwan, and an argument against the drumbeat of war that has become familiar in Washington foreign policy circles. At the recent Trump-Xi summit, Taiwan went largely undiscussed. According to Peter Van Buren, writing for The American Conservative, that silence was no failure of diplomacy. It was the diplomacy working as designed. Van Buren argues that the framework crafted in the 1972 Shanghai Communique and the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act was never meant to resolve the Taiwan question. It was meant to allow Washington, Beijing, and Taipei to live with the fact that it isn't resolved. And for nearly half a century, it has held. Van Buren points out that China has not moved militarily on Taiwan in all that time, despite the predictions of hawks and the fan-fiction scenarios of Washington analysts. Beijing, he writes, has shown itself to be a patient negotiator, one that waited centuries to peacefully reclaim Hong Kong and Macau. Economic ties reinforce the peace. Taiwanese investment in China has run to hundreds of billions of dollars, and total American investment in China now exceeds one trillion. As Van Buren notes, China and Taiwan have spent years doing something strange for two governments supposedly preparing for war: getting rich together. He acknowledges the semiconductor question, with Taiwan's TSMC producing roughly ninety percent of the world's most advanced chips. But he argues a semiconductor ecology cannot be seized the way an oil field can. Destroying TSMC, he writes, would be a terrible way to acquire TSMC. His conclusion: the Taiwan arrangement has bloomed well. It needs occasional pruning, not uprooting. Next, a sharp critique of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth from within the conservative tradition itself. Jack Hunter writes in The American Conservative that Hegseth appears to relish war in a way that stands outside the main currents of conservative thought. Hunter points to Hegseth's announcement of a new Office of Religious Affairs at the Pentagon, where the Secretary spoke of putting on the full armor of God. Hunter writes that there is nothing inherently wrong with invoking faith in military affairs. But he pairs that rhetoric with Hegseth's past declarations of no quarter and no mercy for enemies, and with the February bombing of an Iranian girls' school, to argue that the Secretary carries a bully-with-a-badge zeal for warmaking. Hunter grounds his case in the words of traditional conservatives. He cites the sociologist Robert Nisbet, who wrote that no conservative can relish war and its attendant militarization. He draws on Russell Kirk, Edmund Burke, James Madison, Robert Taft, and H.L. Mencken, all of whom warned that war undermines civilization, centralizes power, and erodes liberty. Hunter argues that the Trump administration, which once vowed to vanquish the neoconservatives, now takes its direction from them. He contrasts this with Ronald Reagan, who after the Beirut barracks bombing in 1983 withdrew American troops rather than dig in. The neocon religion, Hunter concludes, is war, and in Hegseth they have found a willing warrior. True conservatives, he writes, do not relish war, if any such conservatives can still be found. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Sunday, October 4th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Senior Trump officials convene a "highly unusual" meeting on the Iran War as it enters day 218, with diesel prices still near record highs and fresh strikes rattling the Strait of Hormuz. Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders ignites a conservative backlash with a welfare-to-work ad whose lazy cheese-ball-eating star, Brad, happens to be white. Jude Russo argues that leaning on AI to generate your prose shortchanges thought, flattens style, and gives editors every reason to stop paying you. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing Iran War, now in its two hundred and eighteenth day. According to a report in Axios, senior Trump administration officials convened what was described as a "highly unusual meeting" late this week to weigh next steps in the conflict and in the broader region. Vice President J.D. Vance chaired the session, which brought together Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine. One U.S. official told Axios that "things were decided or at least deeply discussed." The economic strain of the war continues to press on American households. President Trump announced Friday that European leaders had agreed to release what he called a "massive amount" of diesel reserves to help bring down global prices. Diesel in the United States recently hit a record of six dollars and fifty-three cents a gallon and remains elevated, even as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up. Regular gasoline averaged four dollars and thirty-eight cents on Saturday, down about a dime from the week prior. Meanwhile, two vessels were struck in the Strait between Friday and Saturday. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, the regional picture is widening. Loud explosions were heard in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, on Saturday, with the Houthis reporting Saudi airstrikes. Fighting between Riyadh and the Iran-backed Houthis broke out in July, and the Saudi government has been pressing President Trump to bring the United States into that conflict as well. Turning to domestic politics, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders is at the center of a conservative social media controversy over a new ad promoting her welfare-to-work policies. The spot features a lazy welfare recipient named Brad, who sits around playing video games and eating cheese balls before eventually putting on a tie and heading to work. The twist that set off the debate: Brad is white. W. James Antle III, writing for The American Conservative, places the flap in the context of a tough midterm environment, narrow Republican congressional majorities, and a Vance-led White House push against what the Vice President has called "institutionalized anti-white, anti-male discrimination." Antle notes that fraud in government welfare programs has become a leading Republican issue this cycle, pointing to the Minnesota Somali daycare fraud scandal that drove Governor Tim Walz from his reelection race and has made that state's open Senate seat unexpectedly competitive. Antle writes that whoever cast the Brad ad was likely trying to sidestep the usual accusation that Republican welfare messaging is a racial dogwhistle. But many conservatives felt that making the welfare cheat a white man was itself tone-deaf, weeks before the GOP needs young white men to turn out. Antle observes that in a DEI world, white men are the last group it remains socially acceptable to label as welfare queens, and critics have questioned whether Brad is demographically representative of the Arkansas caseload. Still, Antle asks whether the current freakout isn't itself a form of identity politics, and whether a multiracial working-class coalition or what he calls "Woke 2 for white folks" is the more likely path to electoral success. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Saturday, October 3rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Russia experts tell The American Conservative that Moscow views Western talk of blockading Kaliningrad as grounds for an act-of-war response, with Putin prepared to defend the exclave by nuclear means if necessary. The U.S. is surging a third aircraft carrier and ten thousand more troops to the Middle East as tensions with Iran escalate, even as Tehran floats inspections of its bombed nuclear sites in exchange for sanctions relief. September's jobs report came in at just twenty-nine thousand new hires against a ninety thousand forecast, with wage growth slowing to its weakest pace since May 2021. and now for the details. We begin in the Baltic, where Moscow is warning NATO of a possible nuclear response if the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is cut off. Kaliningrad is a small sliver of Russian territory wedged between Poland, Lithuania, and the sea, and it has become the latest flashpoint between Russia and the West. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has suggested NATO could hold aggressive exercises around Kaliningrad to pressure Moscow into pulling troops out of Ukraine, and some Western voices have floated the idea of a blockade. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, Russia experts across the spectrum say the Kremlin takes these ideas with deadly seriousness. Thomas Graham of the Council on Foreign Relations told TAC that Putin would see a blockade as an act of war, and would defend Russian land with all necessary means, including nuclear weapons. Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute added that Kaliningrad is internationally recognized Russian territory, now surrounded by NATO members on land and sea, and that every Russian he has spoken with says Moscow would have to credibly threaten, and if necessary use, nuclear weapons rather than accept its surrender. Day argues that dismissing these warnings as mere bluffing, as some Western analysts have done, is a dangerous miscalculation at a moment when mutual understanding between Russia and the West is arguably worse than during the Cold War. Turning to the Persian Gulf, the United States is sending a third aircraft carrier and roughly ten thousand additional troops to the Middle East, joining the two carriers and fifty thousand servicemembers already deployed against Iran. As Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative, the Wall Street Journal says the USS Theodore Roosevelt left San Diego for the Gulf on Sunday, followed by the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group on Monday. Two Patriot missile batteries have also been moved into the region in recent weeks, one to Saudi Arabia and one to Qatar, to shield energy infrastructure in the event of renewed hostilities. President Trump's recent public comments suggest he expects a return to combat soon. The diplomatic channel is not entirely closed, however. Bloomberg reports that Tehran has offered to allow inspectors into its bombed nuclear sites in exchange for sanctions relief. The pressures of the standoff are showing up at the pump. Brent crude opened Friday at a hundred and two dollars a barrel, with the national average for regular gas at four dollars and forty cents, and diesel at six dollars and thirty-seven cents a gallon. Here at home, the September jobs report came in well below expectations. The Department of Labor reported Friday that the economy added just twenty-nine thousand jobs last month, far short of the ninety thousand economists had projected. Unemployment ticked up slightly from four-point-one to four-point-two percent, and annual wage growth slowed to three percent, the weakest pace since May of 2021. As Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative, stocks rose and bond yields fell on the news, as analysts downgraded the odds of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this month. Employment and equity markets have held up through 2026 despite weak consumer sentiment and tightening credit, but the softer wage numbers point to real strain for working families trying to keep pace with the cost of living. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Friday, October 2nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Ethiopia has slid back into open civil war as seven armed groups unite against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, with Brad Pearce arguing the timing is disastrous for American interests in a Red Sea region where Washington has precious few friends left to lose. Jude Russo examines the tentative good news that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, weighing whether Iran has been degraded, is angling for a diplomatic breakthrough, or is simply waiting for an opportune moment to escalate. and now for the details. We begin this morning in the Horn of Africa, where Ethiopia appears to have slipped back into open civil war. On September 20th, seven armed groups announced they were banding together under the name the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival, with the stated aim of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. Shortly thereafter, forces of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front launched an offensive and reportedly seized three regional airports, prompting counterattacks from the Ethiopian National Defense Force. By September 24th, a member of the TPLF's central committee was describing the situation to Al Jazeera as a "full war." The governor of the Afar regional state has further alleged that Eritrean troops have invaded and now control two-thirds of that state, though that claim remains unconfirmed. As Brad Pearce reports, the timing could hardly be worse for American interests. The Trump administration signed a new defense agreement with Addis Ababa just last month, and Washington lifted sanctions on Eritrea the day before the Alliance for Survival was announced. Pearce describes Abiy as an unusual figure — a Nobel laureate who styled himself after Silicon Valley CEOs, promised freedom, and delivered surveillance and high-tech warfare, with a habit of making flashy handshake deals without working out the fundamentals. The 2022 Pretoria Agreement, Pearce notes, never settled the status of Eritrean troops in Tigray, never restored self-government to the region, and never allowed it to participate in the June elections that extended Abiy's rule. Pearce argues that Ethiopia nonetheless matters to the United States. It is Africa's second-most populous country, a potentially lucrative trade partner, and — crucially — offers air range over Red Sea shipping lanes at a moment when Yemen's Houthis have the upper hand, Somalia remains weak after decades of American support, and Sudan's civil war has made both sides untenable partners. The only serious alternative, Pearce suggests, would be recognizing Somaliland, something the Trump administration has thus far hesitated to do. Abiy, he writes, is one of the wiliest leaders of the modern era, and the American foreign policy class should hope he survives, because there are precious few friends left to lose near the Red Sea. Turning to the Persian Gulf, there is tentatively good news on energy flows. As of Monday, a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels of crude oil were transiting the Strait of Hormuz — roughly matching pre-war levels after six months of severe disruption. Jude Russo examines why markets have not greeted the news with jubilation, and offers several explanations for why flows have improved. One possibility, he writes, is that American military operations have degraded Iranian capacities to the point that Tehran can no longer meaningfully constrict traffic, or is unwilling to invite further punishment. A second, compatible explanation is that Iran is maintaining calm in anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough, with proposals exchanged around the UN General Assembly for a return to something like the June memorandum of understanding. A third possibility, which Russo attributes to analyst Trita Parsi, is darker — that the Iranians are simply waiting for an opportune moment to escalate, with hardliners like Mohsen Rezaei having gained prominence after the death of Ali Khamenei, and a belief in Tehran that the American midterms offer a chance to maximize the administration's embarrassment. Russo cautions that global reserves remain depleted, refinery and pipeline damage will persist for months, and consumer prices will stay elevated regardless. Spiking the football on the opening of Hormuz, he writes, seems at this point a little premature. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 1st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Iuliia Mendel reports that war-weary Ukrainians are turning against the rhetoric of unbreakability, with a majority now backing a negotiated peace that includes territorial compromises as Russian strikes intensify and mobilization grows deeply unpopular. On day 215 of the Iran War, Tehran confirms receipt of an American counterproposal on the Strait of Hormuz through Qatari mediators, even as U.S. forces complete their withdrawal from Iraq and Israel investigates a FlyDubai cockpit attack as attempted terrorism. Consumer confidence has tumbled to its lowest level in twelve years, as surging gasoline prices from the Iran War feed inflation and darken the outlook for American households. and now for the details. We begin in Ukraine, where a growing debate is reshaping what victory even means after more than four years of war with Russia. Writing for The American Conservative, Iuliia Mendel reports that ordinary Ukrainians are increasingly skeptical of the official rhetoric of resilience and unbreakability, and are instead pressing for a negotiated end to the fighting. A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 61 percent of Ukrainians would support a comprehensive peace deal that included territorial compromises. Public anger over forced mobilization has reached a boiling point, with mobilization centers linked to torture, unexplained deaths, and corruption. Mendel notes that Russian strikes have intensified, now reaching deep into Kiev, following President Zelensky's much-advertised 40-day pressure operation, which has provoked heavy Russian counterstrikes on railways, agricultural exports, the power system, and basic goods warehouses. As Mendel reports, Ukraine is spending roughly 44 percent of GDP on defense, compared with about 7 percent for Russia, and Russia has between two and four times as many men of mobilization age. Her conclusion is sobering: attritional war favors Moscow historically, and the current course, marked by corruption, fiscal crisis, and a demoralized population, risks costing Ukraine not just the war, but its independence. A bad peace, she argues, is now the only victory worth believing in. Turning to the Iran War, now in its 215th day, there are signs of movement on the diplomatic front. Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative that an Iranian government spokeswoman, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi presented an American counterproposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. The proposal was delivered through Qatari mediators, though its substance has not been disclosed. In a parallel development, the roughly 1,500 American servicemembers stationed in Iraq's Kurdish region completed their withdrawal on Wednesday. CENTCOM announced the departure from Erbil Air Base and the conclusion of Operation Inherent Resolve, the campaign launched in 2014 against the Islamic State. For the first time in years, there is no U.S. military presence in Iraq. Russo also notes a serious aviation incident: a FlyDubai flight bound for Tel Aviv made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after the copilot allegedly attacked the pilot and sent the plane into a steep descent. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the copilot appears to have intended to crash the plane deliberately. Israel is investigating the matter as a terrorist hijacking. Meanwhile, oil flows through Hormuz have returned to near pre-war levels, but prices remain elevated, with Brent crude opening at 103 dollars a barrel and the national average for regular gasoline at 4 dollars and 43 cents. Here at home, American households are feeling the strain. Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative that consumer confidence fell sharply in September, hitting its lowest level in twelve years. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, a level not seen since 2014, when the economy was still recovering from the financial crisis. The board's chief economist, Dana Peterson, said consumers expect both business conditions and the labor market to weaken over the next six months. As Day reports, the Iran War has driven oil prices sharply higher, with average gasoline prices climbing from 2 dollars and 98 cents a gallon to over 4 dollars and 40 cents. That surge is feeding broader inflation, which stood at 3.4 percent in August, well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The University of Michigan's separate survey of consumers also recorded growing pessimism in September, suggesting the sentiment is broad-based across working and middle-class households. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, September 30th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Speaker Mike Johnson abruptly cancelled a House session to head off Thomas Massie's forced vote on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with Luke Nicastro arguing the GOP fears the eight detailed articles could fuel future Democratic prosecutions—and even international proceedings at the Hague. On day 214 of the war with Iran, Tehran says it's still awaiting a formal U.S. response to its ceasefire proposal, a vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, and gasoline at home has climbed to $4.46 a gallon. and now for the details. We begin on Capitol Hill, where Speaker Mike Johnson abruptly cancelled the final day of the House session earlier this month, sending members home a day early. The reason, according to Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, was to head off a forced vote on the impeachment of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Massie's measure carried a 48-hour timer, and by adjourning early, Johnson punted the matter until after the midterms. Massie has dubbed the cancelled day "the Hegseth holiday." As Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative, this was more than a procedural dodge. Massie's articles of impeachment are eight in number, and they are specific and serious: they accuse Hegseth of using U.S. forces for unauthorized hostilities in Iran, Venezuela, and Yemen; violating the War Powers Resolution; ordering extrajudicial killings in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific; ignoring congressional requirements to minimize civilian casualties; and using the Pentagon to retaliate against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Polling suggests a majority of Americans support Hegseth's impeachment, and Nicastro notes that even an unsuccessful vote would be politically damaging for both Johnson and the White House. But Nicastro argues there is a deeper reason for the GOP's alarm. Should Democrats retake power, Hegseth is likely to be a top target for congressional investigations and possible prosecution, and Nicastro writes that some observers are even speculating about future cooperation with the International Criminal Court at the Hague. To have Massie's articles debated and memorialized in the public record, Nicastro concludes, would supply raw material for exactly those future proceedings, both domestic and international. Turning to the war with Iran, now in its 214th day. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Tehran is still awaiting a formal U.S. response to a ceasefire plan it proposed last week. President Trump has publicly rejected the proposal, but Araghchi suggested through Qatari and Pakistani mediators that Washington has not officially closed the door. Trump on Monday denied an Axios report that he was willing to release Iranian assets and ease sanctions in exchange for nuclear concessions, calling the story a hoax. Andrew Day reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Tuesday that Israel's enemies may try to strike before elections scheduled for late October, vowing that Israel's "long arm will reach you anywhere, anytime." Meanwhile, a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by what the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations described as an "unknown projectile," damaging an engine room and causing one casualty. The economic toll continues to register at home. A framework peace deal signed in June by the U.S. and Iran had aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian administration, but that agreement broke down when Washington sought a shipping corridor near the Omani coast, outside Iranian control. Brent crude briefly topped $108 a barrel Monday before settling near $105. The average price of gasoline in America stood at $4.46 on Tuesday, up from $2.98 before the war began. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, September 29th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jack Hunter argues in The American Conservative that Trump's collapsing approval and looming midterm losses might have been avoided had he governed more like Thomas Massie, whose positions on Iran, the Epstein files, and tariffs have all proven more popular with voters. Andrew Day dismantles Ben Shapiro's claim that the Iran war hasn't damaged Trump politically, pointing to gas prices that have jumped from $2.98 to $4.48 a gallon, diesel nearing $6.50, and an inflation uptick directly tied to the conflict. Both writers conclude that Americans see clearly what has happened, and the once-winning MAGA coalition has fractured over betrayals on war, spending, and transparency. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a look at the president's political fortunes heading into the midterms. Writing for The American Conservative, Jack Hunter poses a provocative question: would Republicans be in better shape today if Donald Trump had governed more like Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie? Hunter notes that Trump's approval ratings are sinking to historic lows, and his party faces the prospect of steep losses in November. The relationship between Trump and Massie has been rocky, most recently after the president joined with billionaire donors to try to oust the congressman in Kentucky's May GOP primary, the most expensive House primary in American history. But Hunter argues that on issue after issue, Massie has picked the position now proving more popular with voters. On the Iran war, Real Clear Politics shows Trump's handling underwater by nearly 30 points. An Economist/YouGov poll found 51 percent of respondents supported Massie's move to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the war. On the Epstein files, only 26 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling, and 68 percent believe the government is covering up evidence. Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac poll now shows more Americans sympathize with the Palestinians than the Israelis, and a Cato Institute survey finds 74 percent say Trump's tariffs have raised prices at the store. Hunter closes with Massie's own words on X: "Economic fallout of the Iran War and withholding Epstein Files are dragging down Republicans in the midterms." As Hunter puts it, Americans aren't confused. They're mad. And they know exactly what's happened. Staying with the political fallout from the Iran conflict, Andrew Day writes for The American Conservative that the war has damaged Trump's approval ratings, consumed his presidency, and darkened Republican prospects, no matter what Israel-first commentators may claim. Day takes direct aim at Daily Wire host Ben Shapiro, who has argued Trump's decline is about affordability, not foreign policy. Day counters that the two are inseparable. On the eve of the war, regular gasoline averaged $2.98 a gallon. Today, it stands at $4.48. Diesel has smashed records, sitting near $6.50, up from $3.76 before the war, prompting rumors of a trucker strike. Day notes that inflation, which had been trending down toward the Fed's 2 percent target, now sits at 3.4 percent, with the war responsible for more than a third of the recent uptick. He cites election analyst Ryan Girdusky, who observes that Trump's approval and economic confidence actually rose after his tariff rollout, then plummeted at the start of the Iran War. Day also takes on Fox News host Mark Levin, who has dismissed Iran as a "4-percent issue." The subtler problem, Day writes, is that Americans believe Trump is too focused on foreign policy at the expense of the cost-of-living concerns his war has made worse. If there is any silver lining, Day suggests, it is that Americans no longer buy the war narratives being sold to them. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.