Good morning! Today is Thursday, July 16th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Anthony Constantini argues in The American Conservative that the Ankara NATO summit exposed a European strategy of flattery and exaggerated rearmament designed to stall Trump until 2029, and that the Pentagon's force posture review should pave the way to bring U.S. troops home. The Iran War hit day 138 with a seven-hour U.S. bombing campaign and Iranian retaliatory strikes on American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, as Trump threatens to target Iran's power plants and bridges next week. Harrison Berger reports that the battle over the Strait of Hormuz is escalating, with Tuesday seeing zero transits through the U.S.-coordinated Omani channel while 21 vessels moved through the Iranian route, sending Brent Crude above $84.50 a barrel. and now for the details. We begin this morning in Ankara, Turkey, where the latest NATO summit has wrapped up with fewer fireworks than many expected. President Trump did demand Greenland and threaten to sever trade ties with Spain, but he ultimately confirmed the United States will remain in the alliance for now, calling the summit, in his words, "tremendously successful." That reassurance came alongside news that the White House recently blocked a Pentagon plan to cut the American troop presence in Europe by a third. Writing for The American Conservative, Anthony J. Constantini argues this outcome is a pity. As Constantini reports, European leaders have held secret discussions on how to defer any major decisions on the alliance until the end of Trump's term, with some proposing to scrap annual summits altogether so NATO can, in his phrase, fly under the radar until 2029. He notes that despite the flattery, the rearmament story is largely oversold. Estonia does spend 5.4 percent of GDP on defense, but that amounts to just 2.4 billion dollars—less, he observes, than Pennsylvania spends on its Department of Corrections. Slovakia's spending is flat, the Czech Republic's is declining, Italy is padding its numbers with domestic law enforcement, and Germany has walked back its grand promises. Constantini's deeper argument is that even successful European rearmament would not clearly serve American interests. Our allies already have the capabilities to deter a conventional Russian attack, he writes, and more European defense spending could actually raise the risk of a direct NATO–Russia confrontation over Ukraine. He points to the Pentagon's ongoing six-month review of U.S. force posture in Europe as the opening for a clear case to bring American conventional forces home—the ultimate card, he says, that the president should be prepared to play. The Iran War entered its 138th day on Wednesday with a sharp escalation. U.S. Central Command announced the completion of a seven-hour bombing run against what it described as Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, and coastal defense systems. Iranian media reported that one of the strikes hit a wheat storage facility. On Fox News Tuesday, President Trump warned that all of Iran's power plants and bridges will be targeted next week unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps struck back, claiming hits on a U.S. military logistics center at Kuwait's Mina Abdullah port, the Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and Al-Azraq base in Jordan. Harrison Berger reports for TAC that the fight over the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying. The Wall Street Journal found that two of the three latest vessels struck by Iran were part of a U.S.-escorted shuttle run moving about 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. On Tuesday, shipping tracker Kpler recorded zero transits through the U.S.-coordinated Omani channel, while 21 vessels moved through the Iranian channel. Tehran points to article five of the memorandum of understanding signed by Trump and President Masoud Pezeshkian, which assigns future administration of the strait to Iran and Oman, and denounces American pressure to open a rival channel near the Omani coast. Brent Crude climbed above $84.50 a barrel on Wednesday morning. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, July 15th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. The war in Iran enters its 137th day as U.S. forces bomb targets across the country for a third straight night, Iran strikes American positions in Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq, and President Trump proposes charging a twenty-percent protection fee on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Sina Toossi argues in a new report that Trump's regime-change war has become a quagmire with no military path to victory, the predictable result of a half-century pattern in which Washington has treated Iran as an irrational actor and repeatedly achieved the opposite of what it intended. And Luke Nicastro reports on Marine Le Pen's revived path to the French presidency after a court cleared her to run, with polls showing her comfortably ahead as the National Rally campaigns on national rebirth against a decade of Macron's technocratic rule. and now for the details. We begin with the war in Iran, now in its 137th day. On Monday evening, U.S. forces bombed Iran for a third straight night, striking targets in Bushehr, Chabahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps responded with strikes on the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, an American air base in Jordan, and Iranian Kurdish opposition facilities in Iraq. The IRGC also claimed to have killed three American service members in Kuwait over the weekend. Central Command initially denied casualties, though the Pentagon's official death toll rose by one on Monday with the disclosed death of a Navy pilot in an early-July helicopter crash. Iranian media reports at least 23 people killed in U.S. strikes since hostilities resumed. The Strait of Hormuz remains the central flashpoint. Iran continues to control the northern portion of the waterway and cites article five of the memorandum of understanding signed by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which assigned future administration of the strait to Iran and Oman. On Monday, President Trump proposed that the United States become, in his words, "the guardian of the Hormuz Strait," and charge a twenty-percent protection fee on each ship's cargo. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, Iran has attacked vessels attempting to use an alternate Omani channel, most recently striking two UAE-flagged supertankers with cruise missiles on Monday. Shipping tracker Kpler says use of that Omani channel has almost disappeared in recent days. Brent crude has climbed to 87 dollars a barrel, up roughly 17 percent since July 7. That renewed conflict is the subject of a longer analysis by Sina Toossi, drawing on his new report for the Center for International Policy, titled Beyond Maximalism. Toossi argues that President Trump, who entered office promising to end America's endless wars, has instead chosen a war openly aimed at regime change in Iran, one that has become a quagmire of tit-for-tat strikes, economic blockades, and confrontation over Hormuz, with no plausible military path to victory. Toossi's central point is that this outcome was not inevitable. He traces nearly half a century of American policy from Iran-Contra through the 2015 nuclear deal and maximum pressure, and finds a consistent pattern: Washington has treated Iran as an irrational ideological actor when senior American military leaders and realist scholars have long described it as a rational state responding to incentives. He notes that the invasion of Iraq eliminated Iran's chief regional rival and expanded Tehran's influence. Withdrawal from the nuclear deal accelerated Iran's nuclear program. Maximum pressure drove Iran closer to Russia and China. Toossi warns that the restored blockade is unlikely to force capitulation and more likely to convince Tehran that leverage over Hormuz is indispensable to its security, at a moment when U.S. strategic petroleum reserves remain historically low. His conclusion: there is no military solution. Washington's objective, he writes, should not be unconditional submission but managing a long-term rivalry through reciprocal diplomacy and regional integration. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, July 14th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jack Hunter offers a sober South Carolinian's reckoning with the late Senator Lindsey Graham, whose three-decade career made him Washington's most tireless advocate for open-ended war, from Iraq to Syria to Iran—and whose invocations of Hiroshima and Iwo Jima reveal a politician strikingly dismissive of human cost. Harrison Berger reports that hawks in Europe and inside America's own national security bureaucracy are steadily pulling President Trump into deeper ownership of the Ukraine war, with CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly pitching strikes on Russian refineries on the golf course while analysts like John Mearsheimer and Glenn Diesen warn the escalation could push the Kremlin toward nuclear demonstration. Mark Jamison argues that as Beijing moves to lock down its frontier AI models as strategic assets, Washington should resist the temptation to mirror. and now for the details. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died unexpectedly on Saturday at the age of seventy-one. His passing closes a three-decade congressional career during which he became perhaps the most consistent voice in Washington for open-ended military intervention abroad. In a reflection at The American Conservative, Jack Hunter, a fellow South Carolinian and longtime constituent, offers a sober accounting of Graham's public record, arguing that a pro-life ethic requires honesty even in eulogy. As Hunter recounts, Graham backed the Iraq War through its darkest years, lobbied President Obama to send twenty thousand American troops back into Iraq and Syria in 2015, pushed for military strikes on Syria in 2013, and this year invoked Iwo Jima while urging escalation against Iran—a battle in which more than twenty-six thousand Americans were killed or wounded. Hunter also notes Graham's May 2024 comments citing Hiroshima and Nagasaki as a model for Israel's campaign in Gaza, telling Israel to do "whatever" was necessary. Hunter writes that even the Daily Wire's Matt Walsh was taken aback by Graham's Iwo Jima remark, and that Graham appeared, throughout his career, dismissive of the human cost of the wars he championed. Hunter closes by writing that humans should never strive for inhumanity, and that he wishes Graham had thought the same. President Trump, who once promised to end the war in Ukraine within twenty-four hours of taking office, this past week described Ukrainian strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure as an "escalation" that could help end the conflict, and pledged to license Patriot missile production for Kiev. Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative that hawks in Europe and within America's own national security bureaucracy are successfully selling the President a narrative he had previously resisted. Berger cites New York Times reporting that CIA Director John Ratcliffe personally pitched a campaign against Russian oil refineries to the President on the golf course, and Wall Street Journal reporting that Trump is being shown intelligence assessments designed to leave him impressed with Ukraine's strike capabilities. Berger cites John Mearsheimer, who told TAC that new Western aid will have hardly any effect on the battlefield but could push the Kremlin toward hardliners like Sergey Karaganov, who advocate a tactical nuclear demonstration to restore deterrence. Glenn Diesen argues the only remaining Russian response may be escalation toward nuclear war. Berger also notes that the city of Lviv saw riots last week protesting Zelensky's sweeping conscription regime, with Euronews counting more than one hundred such incidents this year. Mearsheimer describes Ukraine as being in a demographic death spiral. Following the Ankara NATO summit, Diesen concludes, diplomacy is dead, and this is now Trump's war. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Monday, July 13th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. The war with Iran reaches its 135th day as Tehran closes the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM launches a third wave of airstrikes, and Iranian forces hit American bases across the Gulf. Senator Lindsey Graham, the hawkish South Carolina Republican and Trump confidant, has died at 71, leaving Governor McMaster to name a successor and the state GOP scrambling before an August primary. Peter Van Buren argues that Democrats' embrace of gender-identity activism, on vivid display at the New York Pride Parade, is severing the older coalition built around marriage equality and could cost the party dearly in the midterms. and now for the details. The war with Iran entered its 135th day over the weekend with a sharp escalation in the Persian Gulf. According to U.S. Central Command, Iran on Saturday attacked the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy after it attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz without coordinating with Tehran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the Strait would be closed until, in its words, the end of U.S. interference in the region. CENTCOM responded with a third wave of airstrikes this week, hitting Iranian missile and drone sites, naval assets, ammunition depots, and coastal surveillance positions. Iran then struck back, launching attacks against Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan, and additional sites in Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain, warning that continued aggression would be met with more severe responses. As Harrison Berger reports, the weekend's exchange casts serious doubt on a CBS News report from Friday that had claimed Iran apologized for prior attacks on shipping. A senior Iranian official told Drop Site News that those leaks were a deliberate, coordinated media campaign to pressure Tehran into concessions over the Strait, and further alleged that the idea of opening an alternative shipping lane outside Iranian oversight had originated on the American side. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died Saturday after a sudden illness. He was 71. President Trump, writing on Truth Social, called Graham one of the greatest senators he had ever known and a true American patriot. Senate Majority Leader John Thune described him as a strong ally to freedom-loving countries around the globe. As Jude Russo reports, Graham was a former Air Force lawyer first elected to the House in 1994 and to the Senate in 2002. He was known throughout his career for aggressive foreign policy positions, pressing for military escalation against Iran and championing sanctions legislation against Russia. He briefly ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2015, and though he initially called Donald Trump unfit for the presidency, he later became a fixture in Trump's inner circle. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster will appoint a replacement to serve out the remainder of Graham's term, which ends January 3rd. The state Republican Party has until August 11th to hold a special primary to select a candidate for the seat Graham had been seeking to hold in the coming election. Eleven years after Obergefell v. Hodges, the movement that once organized around marriage equality looks strikingly different, and Peter Van Buren argues that difference is becoming a political liability for Democrats. Watching the New York Pride Parade this year, Van Buren observed that the traditional rainbow flag has been largely displaced by the trans flag, and that trans issues, including those affecting children, dominated the speeches and signage. Senator Chuck Schumer was booed by attendees who said he was insufficiently supportive of trans rights, while Mayor Zohran Mamdani drew some of the loudest applause. Van Buren traces how public support for same-sex marriage moved from about a third of Americans in the mid-nineties to roughly two-thirds by the 2020s, a shift that culminated in Obergefell and prompted the Republican Party in 2024 to drop opposition to marriage equality from its platform. That older movement, he writes, focused on consenting adults and universal rights already embedded in American law. What followed, in his account, was a radicalization: a turn toward gender identity, medical intervention for minors, drag events in libraries, school policies that kept parents in the dark, and the introduction of biological boys into girls' sports and locker rooms. Van Buren notes that predictions Trump would roll back same-sex marriage have not materialized. His Treasury Secretary is a married gay man with children, and Bostock v. Clayton County still protects gay and transgender workers from employment discrimination. But in post-election surveys, cultural issues, including transgender policy, mattered more to swing voters than even immigration or inflation. Van Buren's conclusion is that voters are increasingly separating support for gay equality from support for gender-identity ac

Good morning! Today is Sunday, July 12th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. With the Iran War now in its 134th day, Tehran signals talks in Oman while Trump warns a thousand missiles are "locked and loaded" over a Strait of Hormuz standoff. Scott Greer argues Karoline Leavitt's Fox News broadside against lazy, entitled Zoomers may thrill Boomer viewers but deepens the GOP's collapse among young voters. Spencer Neale examines how Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's quiet refusal to endorse Graham Platner now looks prescient after sexual assault allegations ended his Maine Senate bid. and now for the details. We begin with the Iran War, which entered its 134th day on Saturday. Iranian officials are set to travel to Oman for talks over the future of the conflict, though the shape of those negotiations remains unclear. U.S. and Iranian delegates were initially reported to be meeting in Muscat, with CBS News saying Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff would attend. Qatari mediators later told CBS that no Americans would be present. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected in Muscat for discussions on management of the Strait of Hormuz, and is also slated to meet with Turkey's foreign minister. Iranian state media, citing unnamed sources, says Tehran has ruled out talks with Washington until its conditions are met—including a Lebanon working group, resolution of Hormuz management, and permission for Iranian oil exports. In a Truth Social post Friday evening, President Trump warned that a thousand missiles are, in his words, "locked and loaded" and aimed at Iran, and that thousands more would follow should Iran act on threats to assassinate him. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, the White House has reportedly given Iran a Saturday deadline to publicly declare the Strait of Hormuz open and to stop firing on commercial ships, or face consequences. The dispute centers on which corridor tankers use through the strait, with Iran demanding coordination and tolls on its side of the waterway while Western shipping organizations direct vessels through Oman's corridor. Brent Crude closed Friday at just over seventy-six dollars a barrel. Staying in the region, Representative Ro Khanna, Democrat of California, was detained for ninety minutes by Israeli settlers while touring the West Bank on Wednesday afternoon. As David Brady reports for The American Conservative, Khanna—who is weighing a 2028 presidential run—was traveling through the ruins of Khirbet Zanuta, a Palestinian village, as part of a three-day trip when armed settlers surrounded and blocked his vehicle. According to the New York Times, Israel Defense Force members arrived at the scene during the encounter but did not assist Khanna. They blocked the road only after the settlers departed. The incident was captured by the congressman's team and witnessed by a Times photographer. Khanna has become an increasingly vocal critic of Israel's wars in Gaza and Iran. The trip was organized by Cameron Kasky, a Parkland shooting survivor and new member of Khanna's digital team, who himself ran for Congress in New York last year on a platform condemning Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide. On the domestic front, President Trump said Friday he will allow a major bipartisan housing package to become law without his signature, using the move to protest the Senate's failure to advance his SAVE America Act on election security. As Joseph Addington reports for The American Conservative, Trump dismissed the housing bill—the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act—as, quote, "a big yawn," and urged Congress to instead take up the SAVE Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote. The housing measure is expected to take effect Saturday under the constitutional provision allowing bills to become law if a president neither signs nor vetoes them within ten days while Congress is in session. The package passed with striking bipartisan support: 85 to 5 in the Senate, and 358 to 32 in the House. It aims to ease the nationwide housing shortage by accelerating environmental reviews, reducing regulatory barriers to construction, expanding support for manufactured and rural housing, and limiting the purchase of single-family homes by large corporate buyers. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Saturday, July 11th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. President Trump has declined to renew the USMCA, the trade pact he himself negotiated, arguing that ballooning deficits with Mexico and Canada and a shrinking manufacturing base prove the deal failed to deliver. Ted Snider contends that the proxy war in Ukraine and the direct war on Iran have raised nuclear risks worldwide, from Finland and Lithuania lifting bans on hosting nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia signing a mutual defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan. W. James Antle III examines how Graham Platner's imploded Senate bid in Maine exposes a dilemma for anti-establishment candidates who routed their party's elites in the primary but remained wholly dependent on those same donors to compete in November. and now for the details. President Trump has decided not to renew the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, the trade pact he himself negotiated during his first term. The deal will remain in force until 2036, when it will expire unless all three countries agree to extend it. Trump told reporters in June that the USMCA was, quote, "sort of a good deal, but it was a great deal for one reason. It gave the right to terminate." As Joseph Addington reports, the president is exercising that right because the economic trends the deal was supposed to arrest have only accelerated. Since the USMCA took effect in 2020, the U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico has nearly doubled, from 111 billion dollars to 197 billion. The deficit with Canada has grown roughly 250 percent. Manufacturing's share of U.S. GDP has slipped from just over 10 percent to 9.4, and there are fewer Americans working in manufacturing today than in January of 2020. Addington notes the USMCA was essentially NAFTA with a new coat of paint—preserving the North American free-trade zone while tightening automotive rules of origin and labor standards. The administration will keep negotiating over the next decade, pushing to strengthen those rules further, but a full replacement framework is not yet on the table. Addington observes that materially altering the arrangement will be difficult, as North American supply chains have grown more integrated, especially as manufacturers shift work from China to Mexico. What replaces the USMCA in 2036 will likely depend on the 2028 election, with Vice President J.D. Vance championing the protectionist line and Secretary of State Marco Rubio closer to the older Republican consensus on free trade. The American proxy war in Ukraine and the direct American war in Iran have raised nuclear risks around the world. That's the argument from Ted Snider, who points out that even Western officials now concede Russia was never poised to march on NATO territory. General Alexus Grynkewich, head of U.S. European Command, has said Russia is not looking for a wider conflict, and Sweden's prime minister agrees. But the war, Snider writes, has hardened a rigid line across Europe and allowed nuclear weapons to move up against it. Finland, which shares an 830-mile border with Russia, has overturned a decades-old ban on hosting nuclear weapons. Lithuania's parliament last week began lifting a similar constitutional ban. Poland has declared interest in the U.S. nuclear sharing program and has joined France's forward deterrence scheme. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that Finland's move will make it a target. Snider argues the war on Iran has done comparable damage to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran, a signatory, was supposed to be protected in its right to a civilian program. The IAEA found no evidence of an active weapons program, yet did not condemn the strikes. Snider notes that Saudi Arabia has since signed a full mutual defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan, and Gulf states are quietly diversifying away from reliance on American security guarantees. Both wars, he concludes, were sold as making the world safer. Both, in his telling, have done the opposite. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Friday, July 10th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. As U.S. and Iranian forces trade fire for a second straight night and strikes hit civilian infrastructure near Khamenei's funeral, President Trump declares last month's memorandum of understanding with Tehran "over.". Ted Snider argues Washington is deceiving itself about a "victory" in Iran, citing Mearsheimer's assessment that Tehran has "clearly won the war" and drawing an uncomfortable parallel to Ukraine. James P. Pinkerton zooms out to place the Iran War within the twenty-five-year Neoconservative Era, weighing whether it truly ranks as "a bigger defeat than Vietnam" or, as J.D. Vance put it, merely "a little blip.". and now for the details. We begin with the latest from the Iran War, now in its one hundred and thirty-second day. For the second consecutive night, the United States carried out a bombing campaign against Iran, with Iran responding by launching drones and ballistic missiles at American and allied bases across the region. Central Command described the American targets as military in nature, but the Financial Times reports that strikes hit civilian infrastructure as well, including railroad bridges on the route to Mashhad, where the funeral of assassinated former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is underway. Electricity infrastructure in southeastern Iran was struck, cutting power to parts of the country, and the deputy governor of Bushehr province says the perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant was also bombed. Iran's Revolutionary Guard retaliated against a satellite early-warning site in Qatar, fuel storage in Bahrain, and air defense in Kuwait, and launched missiles at the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and bases in Kuwait and Jordan. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed sharply, with only thirteen tankers crossing on Wednesday against a recent daily average of thirty-three. President Trump on Wednesday evening declared last month's memorandum of understanding with Tehran "over," while also claiming that Iran had called wanting to make a deal. Brent crude sits above seventy-seven dollars, and the national average price for regular gasoline stands at three dollars and eighty-five cents. Ted Snider, writing for The American Conservative, argues that the collapse of the ceasefire reflects a dangerous self-deception in Washington. President Trump has invoked America's "recent victory" in Iran and claimed the United States "wiped out" the Iranian military. Snider counters that Iran retains ninety percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities, seventy-five percent of its mobile launchers, seventy percent of its ballistic and cruise missiles, and half of its drones. The regime in Tehran remains firmly in place. Meanwhile, thirteen American service members have been killed, expensive munitions have been depleted, and unprecedented damage has been done to U.S. bases in the region, including the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Snider quotes University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer, who told TAC that Iran has "clearly won the war" and that the memorandum of understanding Trump signed was, in Mearsheimer's words, "effectively a surrender document." Snider draws a parallel to Ukraine, where he argues President Zelensky and his European backers are similarly convinced that the tide has turned, even as Russia grinds forward in the Donbas and Ukrainian air defenses failed to stop a single ballistic missile in this week's Russian barrage. In both theaters, Snider warns, leaders convinced they can still win the unwinnable risk prolonging wars that ought to be ended. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Thursday, July 9th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Andrew Day warns that Trump is repeating Biden's 2022 mistake in Ukraine, waving off peace talks just as Kyiv briefly gains momentum, even as interceptor shortages leave its cities exposed and analysts warn the pendulum will soon swing back toward Moscow. On day 131 of the war with Iran, President Trump declared the ceasefire memorandum "over" after overnight strikes and Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, sending oil prices climbing even as 78 percent of Americans say they want the war to end. and now for the details. We begin this morning with the war in Ukraine, and a warning that Washington may be repeating a costly mistake. Russian missile and drone attacks continue to pound Ukrainian cities, and the Ukrainian Air Force says a serious shortage of interceptor missiles meant that none of the 23 ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv on Sunday night were shot down. And yet, according to reporting from Axios, European officials say the message from Washington in recent weeks is that Ukraine has the upper hand on the battlefield, and the White House feels less urgency to launch a new diplomatic push. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, that assessment echoes a fateful choice made by the Biden administration back in November 2022. At that time, Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley urged the White House to press for a diplomatic settlement while Ukraine held battlefield momentum. Secretaries Blinken and Sullivan argued against it. Milley, Day notes, turned out to be right about the war's trajectory. Now, Day writes, President Trump appears to be making the same wager. Ukraine has scored dramatic deep strikes inside Russia, including an attack on energy infrastructure that knocked out power across occupied Crimea. But Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities cautions that the pendulum is likely to swing back in Moscow's favor, given Russia's advantages in firepower and manpower. Day points out that the moment is not comfortable for Vladimir Putin either. A recent Levada Center poll found 67 percent of Russians want peace talks to begin, a record high, and a Gallup survey found a majority of Russians saying local economic conditions are worsening for the first time in the poll's 20-year history. Day argues that with Trump having reduced direct American support and Europe carrying more of the burden, Washington is a more plausible mediator than before. But, he writes, resolving the war was a key Trump campaign promise, and the best time to push for peace is when the wheel turns in Ukraine's favor. At some point, Day concludes, the Ukrainians won't get another turn. Turning now to the war with Iran, which has entered its 131st day. Speaking at a NATO summit press conference in Ankara alongside Secretary General Mark Rutte, President Trump declared that the memorandum of understanding signed last month to stabilize the ceasefire is, in his words, over. Trump said Iran's leadership are "scum" and "cuckoo," and called further talks a waste of time. As Harrison Berger reports, the president's comments followed an overnight exchange of strikes. The U.S. military said it hit Iran in retaliation for Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps then launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, claiming to have targeted 85 American military installations, including the Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Trump told reporters the U.S. would "probably hit them hard again tonight." Secretary General Rutte applauded the strikes as "completely the right thing to do." Berger notes, however, that a CBS News poll released in late June found that 78 percent of Americans want an end to the war now. Global markets responded to the escalation, with Brent Crude oil rising above $79.80 per barrel Wednesday morning, up from $71.50 at the start of the week. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, July 8th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. The U.S. military launched massive retaliatory strikes on more than 80 targets in southwestern Iran after attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian forces reportedly striking back at Bahrain within hours. At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump signaled a warming of ties with Turkey, lifting sanctions and opening the door to F-35 sales despite Israeli objections. Jack Hunter argues that conservative outrage over democratic socialist Melat Kiros's 9/11 blowback remarks revives Bush-Cheney-era speech codes—ignoring that Pat Buchanan, Ron Paul, and Robert Novak all made the same case. and now for the details. We begin with breaking news from the Persian Gulf. The U.S. military announced Tuesday evening it was launching what it called a series of powerful strikes against Iran, in retaliation for Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon described the Iranian attacks as unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire reached last month. According to reporting cited by Andrew Day at The American Conservative, U.S. forces struck southwestern Iran, hitting more than 80 targets—including air-defense systems, coastal surveillance, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missile sites, drone launch sites, and port facilities. A U.S. official told Axios the strikes were four to five times more powerful than those conducted ten days ago. Within hours, reports emerged of Iranian retaliatory strikes against Bahrain, which hosts the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet. As Day reports, the escalation follows the White House's decision earlier Tuesday to reinstate sanctions on Iranian oil sales that had been lifted as part of last month's memorandum of understanding. Tehran called that move a violation of the agreement, insisting it retains the right to manage traffic through the strait. In a related dispatch, Harrison Berger notes that the damaged vessels included a Qatari-owned liquefied natural gas carrier and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, and that President Trump, speaking earlier in the day at the NATO summit in Ankara, had signaled a warming of ties with Turkey—announcing the lifting of sanctions and openness to selling F-35 fighter jets to Ankara, in defiance of pressure from Israeli officials who have urged a more confrontational posture toward President Erdogan. Turning to the intersection of foreign policy and domestic politics, a new controversy has erupted over remarks by Melat Kiros, the 29-year-old democratic socialist who last week defeated 15-term incumbent Diana DeGette in a Denver Democratic primary. Asked by a local reporter whether she believed the 9/11 attacks were, like the October 7th attack on Israel, an inevitable consequence of U.S. foreign policy, Kiros said American destabilization of the Middle East had led people to believe violence was the only response. Conservative commentators, including Nikki Haley and the Republican Jewish Coalition, accused her of blaming America for 9/11. As Jack Hunter writes for The American Conservative, that reaction represents a kind of time warp—reviving the Bush-Cheney-era speech codes that once branded any discussion of blowback as anti-American. Hunter points out that Pat Buchanan, a cofounder of the magazine, said much the same thing for two decades—on MSNBC, in his columns, and in his 1999 book A Republic, Not An Empire, which even named Osama bin Laden as a likely instigator of a catastrophic attack on an American city. Hunter recalls Ron Paul's famous 2008 debate exchange with Rudy Giuliani, when Paul invoked the CIA's own concept of blowback and saw his political movement take off. Columnist Robert Novak made similar arguments after 9/11. Hunter argues that while the rise of democratic socialists in Democratic primaries isn't good news for the country, it's a healthy development that Americans across the political spectrum can now discuss the consequences of U.S. foreign policy more honestly than the neoconservative consensus once permitted. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, July 7th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. At the NATO summit in Ankara, Luke Nicastro warns that Europe's rearmament pledge is a trap designed to keep American troops on the continent, and argues the case for unilateral U.S. withdrawal is stronger than the tired "freeriding" critique suggests. Eldar Mamedov reads Israel's sudden recognition of the Armenian genocide as an opportunistic maneuver aimed at isolating Turkey, warning that the campaign's real audience is Washington and its endpoint a U.S. confrontation with a NATO ally. and now for the details. We begin this morning in Ankara, Turkey, where NATO leaders are gathered for the annual alliance summit. Much of the agenda is devoted to demonstrating progress on last year's pledge that every NATO member spend three and a half percent of GDP on core defense, plus another one and a half percent on defense-adjacent priorities, by 2035. According to NATO, non-U.S. members boosted defense spending last year by some ninety billion dollars, and billions more in new contracts are set to be announced. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had prepared to announce sweeping additional troop cuts in Europe, but that proposal was blocked after national security adviser Marco Rubio and other senior officials weighed in. Writing for The American Conservative, Luke Nicastro argues that European rearmament is not what it appears. As Nicastro reports, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other European leaders are deliberately using the spending pledge as a mechanism to keep American forces on the continent — and they've been careful to credit President Trump for the entire five percent commitment. Nicastro warns that the dominant "freeriding" critique of NATO, which focuses on Europe not paying its fair share, quietly concedes two premises: that the conventional defense of Europe against Russia is critical to American security, and that it is under-resourced. He challenges both. The non-U.S. members of NATO have a collective GDP more than ten times Russia's, and over six hundred million Europeans to Russia's one hundred forty million. Nicastro contends that eighty thousand American troops in Europe are not necessary to deter Moscow, that their presence reinforces Russian fears of encirclement, obstructs a settlement in Ukraine, and exposes American servicemembers to unnecessary risk in a live war zone. His prescription: unilateral, unconditional cuts to the U.S. military presence in Europe, with an eye toward getting out entirely. He closes with Thomas Jefferson's 1823 counsel to James Monroe that America should never take active part in the quarrels of Europe. Turning to the eastern Mediterranean, the Israeli government has voted to formally recognize the World War I-era Armenian genocide, a resolution that still awaits ratification by the Knesset. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar framed the vote as a moral duty and said Israel now joins thirty-two countries that have acknowledged the historical truth. Writing for The American Conservative, Eldar Mamedov urges a skeptical reading of the move. As Mamedov reports, for decades Israeli governments avoided this recognition to preserve ties with Kemalist Turkey under the so-called periphery strategy. That calculus has changed. Israel's deepening partnership with Azerbaijan — which now supplies roughly forty percent of Israel's oil and provides an intelligence foothold on Iran's border — culminated in Baku's 2023 expulsion of about one hundred thousand indigenous Armenian Christians from Nagorno-Karabakh, an event in which, according to Haaretz, Israel's fingerprints were visible. Mamedov notes the moral duty invoked by Sa'ar was absent then. He argues the real target of the recognition vote is Turkey, now cast by Israeli leaders and allied Washington think tanks like the Foundation for Defense of Democracies as the head of a new Sunni axis, a successor threat to Iran. Armenia's own reaction was lukewarm; Azerbaijan's was hostile. Mamedov's conclusion is that the campaign is aimed less at the region than at Washington, with the endpoint being a U.S. confrontation with a NATO ally. He urges American policymakers to make clear that Israel is free to pursue its own foreign policy, but that the United States will not be drawn into another Middle Eastern war. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.