Good morning! Today is Monday, July 6th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. In Tehran, hundreds of thousands mourn the assassinated Ali Khamenei as Iran War negotiations grind into their 18th day, with new polling showing 58 percent of Americans now say the war hasn't been worth the cost and President Trump's approval sliding to 36 percent. Aaron Magid argues in TAC that Jordan's $2 billion annual aid package deserves the same scrutiny applied to Israel, especially given King Abdullah's reported $106 million in luxury homes and $224 million in Swiss accounts. Peter Van Buren examines Marco Rubio's plan to slash African visa processing posts from nearly 50 to 20, while Spencer Neale asks hard questions about Rep. Tom Kean's four-month absence from Congress. and now for the details. We begin in Tehran, where hundreds of thousands of mourners have gathered for the second day of funeral ceremonies for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated by the United States and Israel on February 28th. The rites coincide with the 18th day of negotiations aimed at ending the Iran War. Senior Iranian officials have attended, though the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, journalists on the ground in Tehran are describing significant public backlash to the government's decision to negotiate with Washington, and open calls for vengeance against the United States and Israel. Berger points to a new Financial Times poll showing 58 percent of registered American voters now say the Iran War has not been worth the cost, with only 28 percent saying it has. The White House asked Congress last month for $67 billion to cover war costs, and rising petrol and consumer prices have driven President Trump's approval to 36 percent overall — and just 21 percent among independents, an eight-point drop in a single month. Meanwhile, Lebanon's National News Agency reports fresh Israeli helicopter fire and airstrikes in occupied southern Lebanon. Berger notes that Article One of the 60-day interim agreement, which took effect June 17th, requires an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts — including in Lebanon — and commits the United States to preserving Lebanese sovereignty. Tehran has warned that continued Israeli operations there could derail the entire peace process. Turning to foreign aid: the United States has sent Jordan roughly $33.8 billion in assistance over the past 75 years. This year alone, Congress authorized more than $2 billion, placing the Hashemite Kingdom among the top three recipients of U.S. aid worldwide. Writing for The American Conservative, Aaron Magid argues that figure deserves the same scrutiny lawmakers like Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie have applied to aid for Israel. Magid points out that Jordan's GDP has quadrupled over the last two decades and now exceeds that of many African nations. The International Monetary Fund describes its economy as resilient. Meanwhile, The Economist rates Jordan an authoritarian regime, and Jordanian authorities last year banned the Muslim Brotherhood after its political wing won the most seats in parliamentary elections. The Syrian refugee population that once justified surging aid has fallen sharply since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, with nearly 200,000 refugees returning home. Magid also notes that the 2020 Abraham Accords have made Jordan's peace treaty with Israel less unique — and that King Abdullah himself, according to the Pandora Papers and reporting in the New York Times, holds 14 luxury homes worth over $106 million and Swiss bank accounts exceeding $224 million. Magid suggests aid should return to its 2006 level of roughly $400 million, arguing that as American strategists urge a pivot toward the Western Hemisphere and away from the Middle East, Jordan should no longer sit near the top of the U.S. foreign aid ledger. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Sunday, July 5th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Two bills moving through Congress this summer would deepen the U.S.–Israel military bond, with Section 219 of the NDAA fusing the two countries' defense industries and a separate $3.3 billion transfer facing a Massie-led revolt that has House Democrats scrambling. In Tehran, up to thirty million mourners are expected at the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei, assassinated in February, as Iran War negotiations enter their seventeenth day and Tehran warns foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz to follow its designated routes or face forceful response. Tensions flare between Israel and Turkey, with President Erdoğan calling the Israeli cabinet war-addicted while Israeli ministers increasingly cast Ankara as a greater threat than Iran. and now for the details. We begin on Capitol Hill, where two pieces of legislation moving through Congress this summer could reshape the financial and military relationship between the United States and Israel. The first is the National Defense Authorization Act for 2027. Tucked inside is a provision, now numbered Section 219, that would direct the Pentagon to identify Israeli-origin technologies for integration into U.S. weapons systems and to build American-based co-production partnerships with Israeli industry. The second is a separate appropriations bill containing three-point-three billion dollars in annual funding for Israel, tied to a ten-year, thirty-eight billion dollar memorandum of understanding. Congressman Thomas Massie of Kentucky, joined by Congressman Ro Khanna of California, has introduced amendments targeting both tracks. The House Rules Committee this week rejected their bipartisan amendment to strip Section 219 from the NDAA. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, analysts at the Quincy Institute call Section 219 unprecedented. Annelle Sheline told TAC that no other foreign country has an executive agent inside the Pentagon to merge its military industrial base with America's. She warns the provision would shift Israeli weapons funding out of congressional view and into the Pentagon's procurement system, insulating it from a public that, by polling, has grown deeply skeptical of financing Israel's wars. Berger notes the national security concerns are twofold. Foreign components in American systems raise the risk of compromised supply chains, a danger underscored by Israel's 2024 pager operation in Lebanon. And by fusing the two countries' defense industries, Washington would surrender the leverage it currently holds over Israeli conduct in the region. Berger reports that Massie's amendment on the three-point-three billion dollar transfer has provoked what Punchbowl News describes as alarm inside the House Democratic caucus, with members seeking guidance on how to vote as their base turns against Israel funding. Sheline warns that if Section 219 becomes law, Congress may not get another meaningful vote on the matter. Turning overseas, the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opened Saturday in Tehran, with up to thirty million mourners expected to pay their respects. Khamenei was assassinated by the United States and Israel on February 28th. Senior officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, and China are reported to be attending. Talks to end the Iran War have now entered their seventeenth day, with the next round scheduled for July 11th in Pakistan, according to Al Arabiya. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi warned Saturday against what he called extra-regional powers operating in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's central military command has declared that all vessels transiting the strait must follow routes designated by Tehran or face what it called an immediate and forceful response. Energy market observers say traffic is already shifting away from the Omani side of the strait toward the Iranian route. That warning came a day after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron announced their governments stand ready to deploy a multinational military mission to support freedom of navigation there. As Harrison Berger reports for TAC, the Financial Times found many mourners at Khamenei's funeral voicing frustration with their government's pursuit of a negotiated settlement. Speaking at Mount Rushmore on the eve of the nation's 250th anniversary, President Trump said, quote, we beat Venezuela in one day and we knocked the hell out of Iran, and that they are, quote, dying to settle. Berger also notes rising tensions between Israel and Turkey. President Erdoğan, appearing with Pakistan's prime minister, described the Israeli cabinet as war-addicted and tied to the continuation of regional conflicts. Several Israeli ministers have in recent weeks labeled Turkey a greater concern than Iran, with former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett declaring that Turkey is the new Iran. Thos

Good morning! Today is Saturday, July 4th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. On the semiquincentennial, Reid Smith reflects on the surreal spectacle of American strikes on Iran during a World Cup it hosts, and asks whether a republic founded on self-government can still constrain its own power with prudence and wisdom. Smith traces restraint as a broken but enduring American promise, from Washington's Farewell to Eisenhower's warning, arguing that the 1947 National Security Act turned war from a state of exception into the routine province of the executive branch. Christopher Mott revisits Washington's Farewell Address as a second Declaration of Independence, drawing a pointed parallel between the young republic's refusal to be drawn into revolutionary France's quarrels and today's Middle East entanglements undertaken at the behest of a foreign country. and now for the details. On this Fourth of July, as Americans mark the semiquincentennial, The American Conservative opens with a meditation on the gap between our founding aspirations and our present conduct abroad. The occasion is striking. Hours before Iran's national soccer team took the pitch in Seattle for its World Cup match against Egypt, U.S. Central Command announced further strikes against the Islamic Republic. A host nation had never before bombed a participating country during the tournament, and this came just months after FIFA awarded President Donald Trump its Peace Prize. As Reid Smith writes, the scene is absurd, but the paradox is typically American. Smith argues that restraint has rarely been America's habit, but it has always been part of America's promise. He traces that thread from Washington's warning against permanent alliances, through John Quincy Adams's insistence that America goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy, to Eisenhower on the military-industrial complex, and through generations who marched against war in Vietnam and Iraq. Smith notes that the National Security Act of 1947 routinized wartime mobilization and turned war, once conceived by the Founders as a state of exception requiring public deliberation and congressional consent, into the province of the executive branch and its classified bureaucracies. The result, he writes, is a republic that often uses force while rarely choosing war. His question for the holiday: can a nation founded on self-government constrain its own power with prudence, courage, and wisdom. In a companion piece for the anniversary, Christopher Mott revisits George Washington's Farewell Address and argues that, in the field of diplomacy, it deserves to be read as a kind of second Declaration of Independence. Mott sets the scene in the 1790s, when revolutionary France, having helped secure American independence at Saratoga, was pressing the young United States to serve as a base for privateering against Britain. The Washington administration instead issued a Proclamation of Neutrality and concluded the Jay Treaty of 1795. The treaty was so bitterly contested that John Jay was burned in effigy across the country, and Alexander Hamilton was struck by a stone while speaking in its defense. Mott writes that Washington, a former land surveyor, had a spatial rather than ideological conception of geopolitics. He saw the American experiment as dependent on distance from Europe's quarrels and on avoiding entangling alliances with friend and foe alike. Mott quotes Washington's warning that a passionate attachment of one nation for another dooms the smaller to be a satellite of the greater, and gives ambitious or deluded citizens the opportunity to betray their own country's interests under the appearance of virtue. Mott draws the parallel to the present Middle East, where, he writes, the U.S. government has conceded that its involvement occurred at the behest of a foreign country. The lesson he takes from Washington is strategic self-determination, avoiding the entanglements of both permanent enemies and permanent allies. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Friday, July 3rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Andrew Day unpacks the Supreme Court's 6–3 ruling upholding birthright citizenship, arguing that while Trump's executive order was struck down, the constitutional split was really 5–4 and the national debate over citizenship has only just begun. Chart Westcott challenges the familiar phrase "a nation of immigrants," making the case that America is better understood as a nation of assimilants, where the true miracle was never arrival but the transformation of strangers into fellow countrymen. and now for the details. We begin with this week's Supreme Court ruling on birthright citizenship. In a six-to-three decision, the justices upheld near-universal birthright citizenship, striking down President Trump's executive order that would have ended the practice for the children of illegal aliens and temporary residents. As Andrew Day writes for The American Conservative, the ruling changed everything, and yet nothing. The system remains as it has been since the late 1890s, but Day argues the context has shifted dramatically. He cites Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies, who told TAC that mass immigration is incompatible with the goals of a modern society in ways it wasn't a century or two ago, pointing to smartphones, social media, and the welfare state as obstacles to assimilation. Day highlights arguments from author Ann Coulter, who insists the Fourteenth Amendment, crafted after the Civil War to guarantee citizenship for freed slaves, was never meant to cover the children of illegal aliens or temporary residents. Day also identifies a silver lining for conservatives. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, though joining the majority, based his opinion on a federal statute rather than the Constitution itself, meaning the constitutional split was actually five to four. That leaves open the possibility that Congress could one day redefine birthright citizenship by statute. Day concludes that Trump's order has already shifted the range of acceptable opinion, opening a national debate on the nature of citizenship that even the Washington Post editorial board has acknowledged. Staying with questions of citizenship and national identity, as America approaches its two hundred fiftieth birthday, Chart Westcott offers a reflection in The American Conservative on what he calls one of the most persistent myths in modern American politics: the phrase "a nation of immigrants." Westcott argues that America is more accurately described as a nation of assimilants. Immigration, he writes, is merely the act of arrival. Assimilation is the act of becoming. What made the American experiment remarkable, in his telling, was never the ability to attract newcomers but the capacity to transform strangers into fellow countrymen. Westcott takes on the long-running debate over whether America is fundamentally a creed or a nation, and argues that the two cannot be separated. The Constitution, he notes, was not written for humanity in the abstract. As John Jay observed in Federalist Two, it was written for a people already bound by common habits and affections. Drawing on Lincoln at Gettysburg, on Theodore Roosevelt's insistence that there be no divided allegiance, and even on Malcolm X's observation that mere citizenship is not the same as belonging, Westcott makes the case that assimilation is not exclusion but the pathway to full membership. He challenges the modern slogan that "diversity is our strength," writing that diversity itself is simply a fact. What matters is whether a nation possesses the cultural confidence to turn diversity into unity, out of many, one. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Thursday, July 2nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Doug Bandow argues Europe's fury at Council President António Costa for opening a channel to Moscow reveals a continent unwilling to face the reality that after 52 months of war, only negotiations can produce a durable peace. Jack Hunter examines how the hard left and the America First right have arrived at strikingly similar conclusions about Israel, with recent primaries and polling showing a bipartisan revolt against Washington's posture. and now for the details. We begin in Brussels, where European Council President António Costa has come under fire from EU leaders after his chief of staff initiated informal contact with Moscow. Political outlets report that French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are among those most aggrieved, with Lithuania's president insisting that now is not the right time to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. Estonia's prime minister went further, arguing that the EU cannot even play the role of mediator without compromising its ability to pressure Russia. As Doug Bandow writes for The American Conservative, this reaction is difficult to square with reality on the ground. The war in Ukraine has now raged for 52 months, longer than the First World War, with no end in sight. Bandow argues that fears of a Russian march to the Atlantic, or an assault on the Baltic states, are wildly overstated, and that Kiev lacks the manpower and resources to reclaim lost territory by force. Without negotiations, he warns, the conflict will either freeze into permanent hostility or escalate catastrophically. Bandow contends that a durable peace requires embedding both Ukraine and Russia within a broader continental security framework, and that European capitals must recognize Moscow's red lines rather than shout them down. He notes that back in 2001, Putin addressed the German Bundestag speaking of European integration with hope. Recovering that moment may be impossible, Bandow concedes, but after more than four years of war, Europe should be actively pushing for peace, not punishing the officials who try to open a channel. Turning to domestic politics, a striking realignment is taking shape around American policy toward Israel. In New York City's recent congressional primaries, three insurgent candidates with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America defeated establishment incumbents, and each made vocal criticism of Israel a centerpiece of their campaigns. A Democratic pollster told Responsible Statecraft there was very little daylight between Brad Lander and Dan Goldman ideologically except when it came to Israel, and Lander won by 30 points despite being outspent. National polling shows two-thirds of Democrats now believe the United States is too supportive of Israel. As Jack Hunter writes for The American Conservative, a parallel shift is underway on the right. A recent poll found that just over half of Republican voters believe Israel has too much influence over U.S. foreign policy, and favorability has dropped sharply among younger conservatives. Congressman Thomas Massie lost his primary in part over his opposition to aid for Israel, and former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene became the first House Republican to describe the situation in Gaza as genocide. Hunter argues that the hard left and the America First right have arrived at similar conclusions for similar reasons: opposition to American vassalage, skepticism of endless regional wars, and a conviction that resources are better spent at home. He acknowledges deep disagreements between the two camps on domestic policy, but suggests that on questions of national sovereignty and restraint abroad, a working alliance is not only possible but overdue. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, July 1st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo warns that both Washington and Tehran are poised to squander their leverage in the Iran peace talks, with American negotiators misreading Hezbollah and Iran floating a fantastical $40 billion Hormuz toll scheme. Kushner and Witkoff landed in Doha as talks stretched into their thirteenth day, but Tehran flatly denied any plans for direct meetings, while Moody's estimates the war has cost the average American household roughly a thousand dollars. Presumptive British Prime Minister Andy Burnham unveiled a "Number Ten North" devolution scheme in Manchester, reviving decades-old regional promises that Iain Macwhirter argues are unlikely to revive Britain's flagging economy. and now for the details. We begin with the delicate negotiations to end the war with Iran, where both sides appear at risk of squandering their advantages. Last week, U.S. negotiators announced a framework for a Lebanon-Israel deal, premised on Israeli withdrawal being matched by the Lebanese army moving into vacated areas to prevent Hezbollah from returning. As Jude Russo writes, this is wishful thinking. If the Lebanese army were strong enough to clear out Hezbollah, they would have done it already. The entire problem is predicated on the weakness of the Lebanese state. Russo argues that American negotiators still misread Hezbollah, treating it as an Al Qaeda-style ideological actor when structurally it more closely resembles the Irish Republican Army, straddling politics and militancy, and enjoying broad popular support. Any real settlement, he contends, will have to reckon with Hezbollah directly. On the Iranian side, Russo points to reporting in the Wall Street Journal that Tehran expects to generate roughly forty billion dollars from a proposed toll system on the Strait of Hormuz—two orders of magnitude beyond what Turkey earns administering the Bosporus. Russo warns that pressing such maximalist demands will encourage regional players to route their exports elsewhere, turning control of Hormuz into a wasting asset. He suggests a more modest fee structure could actually embed Iran in international administration as a normal nation, while indirect talks mediated by an inexperienced Pakistan continue to produce avoidable hiccups. The question, Russo concludes, is whether two governments uniquely ill-suited to getting along can resist returning to form. Staying with the Iran file, U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha on Tuesday as talks entered their thirteenth day. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei rejected White House claims that Iranian negotiators would meet the Americans, saying Tehran has no plans to meet Kushner, Witkoff, or any other U.S. official in the coming days. Qatar's Foreign Ministry confirmed there will be no direct negotiations while the envoys are in the Qatari capital. As Harrison Berger reports, CBS News, citing Moody's chief economist, estimates the Iran war has cost the average American household roughly one thousand dollars in higher fuel, food, and other expenses, including three hundred dollars more for gas and two hundred dollars more for groceries. Oman's foreign minister appeared to back Iran's proposal for Strait of Hormuz fees, drawing a distinction between transit tolls and voluntary service fees. Meanwhile, Lebanon's National News Agency reports continued Israeli drone and airstrike activity in the south, with Lebanon's Health Ministry reporting more than four thousand two hundred people killed by Israeli strikes since March. Brent Crude closed Tuesday at seventy-three dollars and ten cents a barrel, with the national average price of gasoline at three dollars and eighty-five cents. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, June 30th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. The Supreme Court hands the Trump administration two losses and one win as the term winds down, with major rulings on mail-in ballots, the Federal Reserve, and the FTC reshaping the boundaries of executive power. Day twelve of the US–Iran ceasefire brings confusion over whether talks in Doha are actually happening, while Lebanon's leadership pushes back against Rubio's framework for disarming Hezbollah. As Keir Starmer's resignation clears the way for Andy Burnham, a fierce contest is underway to determine who will take the second most powerful job in British politics. and now for the details. We begin at the Supreme Court, which issued three significant rulings Monday morning as the term nears its close, with the Trump administration coming out on the losing end in two of them. In Watson v. Republican National Committee, a five-to-four majority upheld Mississippi's grace period for mail-in ballots postmarked by election day but received within five days afterward. The Court reaffirmed that the Constitution places election regulations primarily in the hands of the states, not the federal government. In a second five-to-four decision, the justices blocked the Trump administration's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook while litigation over her dismissal proceeds. The administration had alleged Cook committed mortgage fraud. Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said the administration's position would, in his words, "transform the Federal Reserve's for-cause protection into at-will employment—an interpretive leap out of step with the statute Congress enacted and our Nation's tradition of central banking protected from political interference." The administration did secure one major win. By a six-to-three margin, the Court struck down the law that shielded Federal Trade Commission officials from removal except for cause. As David Brady reports for The American Conservative, that ruling is a significant victory for advocates of the unitary executive theory, overturning a prior precedent that had insulated dozens of independent agencies from direct presidential control. Rulings on birthright citizenship, transgender athletes, and campaign finance are expected Tuesday. Turning to the Middle East, negotiations between the United States and Iran remain in an uncertain state on day twelve of the ceasefire period stipulated by the memorandum of understanding. President Trump posted on Truth Social Monday morning that Iran had requested a meeting and that it would take place Tuesday in Doha. Anonymous officials told several outlets that the United States would stand down and halt strikes on Iran while negotiations continue, and the White House indicated that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff would travel to Qatar. However, as Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, no official confirmation has yet come from Washington, Tehran, or Doha that the talks are actually on. Iran's Tasnim News Agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi saying technical working group talks in Doha had not been scheduled or confirmed. Meanwhile, Iran's Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, told his Lebanese counterpart that Iran is, quote, "seriously pursuing" the goal of ending Israel's occupation of Lebanese territory under the first clause of the Islamabad memorandum. And Lebanon's Speaker Nabih Berri publicly criticized the framework deal brokered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which would involve Lebanese forces in disarming Hezbollah. Berri warned the agreement could incite internal divisions and draw the Lebanese into a confrontation among themselves. Brent Crude was trading at $72.60 Monday morning, with the national average price of regular gasoline at $3.86 a gallon. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Monday, June 29th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Iran strikes U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain as Trump warns the Islamic Republic could cease to exist, while Tehran demands Washington rein in Israel's campaign in Lebanon before negotiations can continue. With inflation back at 4.1 percent and voters focused on affordability, W. James Antle III argues the Republicans most furious at Trump and Vance for seeking an exit are the ones whose seats the war is most likely to cost. Peter Van Buren parses the 14-point memorandum of understanding, arguing its no-nukes pledge and sanctions relief could justify the war, but warning that letting Iran control passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be a strategic disaster. and now for the details. We begin with the latest from the Iran War. Following American strikes on Iran, Tehran struck U.S. bases in the Middle East early Sunday, as the future of peace negotiations outlined in a June 17 interim agreement remained uncertain. In a post on Truth Social Saturday night, President Trump warned that, quote, "There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job," adding that if that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran "will no longer exist." Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it had launched missile and drone strikes against eight U.S. military targets in Kuwait and the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, where authorities reported a residential building was hit. The IRGC threatened a complete halt of negotiations if U.S. strikes continue. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, the picture is further complicated by Israel's ongoing campaign in Lebanon. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking in Baghdad, said Washington must force Israel to stop bombing Lebanon and withdraw its troops, calling that the first clause of the memorandum of understanding. Berger notes that a separate track led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, aimed at disarming Hezbollah through joint Lebanese and Israeli action, has drawn warnings from Hezbollah that such a framework would mean civil war. The war is also reshaping politics back home. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana described President Trump as, quote, "mad as a murder hornet" at the handful of Senate Republicans who voted to defy him on Iran war powers, after a GOP luncheon that by most accounts devolved into a food fight. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and others agreed to change their votes to bolster the President's bargaining position now that the White House appears committed to ending the war. As W. James Antle III writes for The American Conservative, the harder puzzle is the larger group of Republican lawmakers angry at Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance for trying to extricate the country from the conflict. Antle argues it is those very members most at risk of losing their seats and majorities if the Republican message heading into the midterms becomes war yes, affordability no. He points to inflation in the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge climbing back to 4.1 percent, more than double the central bank's target, driven by a war-induced spike in energy prices. Trump, Antle notes, left office in his first term with inflation at 1.4 percent and no new wars. The voters who delivered the Senate to Republicans in 2024, he writes, were not voting for higher prices and more foreign wars. Americans dislike the mullahs, Antle concludes, but they are most worried about their moolah. What the war will ultimately mean depends on what comes next. In a closer look at the fourteen-point memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, Peter Van Buren writes for The American Conservative that wars belong to the nation, not to a particular administration, and that the verdict on this one is still unwritten. Van Buren highlights Paragraph Eight, in which Iran reaffirms it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons and agrees to down-blend enriched material on site under IAEA supervision. If implemented, he argues, that paragraph could justify the war by preventing future ones. Paragraph Seven offers the carrot: a phased termination of U.N., IAEA, and unilateral American sanctions, alongside the release of Iranian assets and a return to global oil markets. Decades of sanctions, Van Buren notes, raised prices inside Iran and cut its oil exports sharply, but never stopped its nuclear ambitions. The danger, he warns, lies in Paragraph Five, which gives Iran responsibility for safe passage of commercial vessels through the Persian Gulf for sixty days. Van Buren argues that any final deal must strip Iran of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Conceding a global maritime chokepoint, he writes, would be strategically devastating and would reshape the world order in ways the United States may not be able to reverse. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Th

Good morning! Today is Sunday, June 28th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Andrew Day skewers Ben Shapiro and allied commentators for scapegoating "useless white people" after Democratic Socialists swept New York's primaries, arguing the right's incoherent fixation ignores how demographic change and Israel's conduct in Gaza are actually fueling the socialist surge. U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian drone and missile sites drew retaliatory attacks on American bases and a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, even as Israel's continued bombing of southern Lebanon threatens to unravel the framework Marco Rubio just signed. Evan Cooper and Will Smith map three futures for U.S.–Iran relations, warning that a return to "mowing the grass" is most likely but urging Trump to pair a limited nuclear deal with a real military drawdown from the region. and now for the details. We begin in the Persian Gulf, where the fragile peace between Washington and Tehran took another hit overnight. After U.S. Central Command launched strikes Friday on Iranian drone storage, missile sites, and radar installations, Iran responded early Saturday with what it called defensive attacks on U.S. military targets in the region. Bahrain's foreign ministry has condemned drone attacks on its territory, and another suspected Iranian drone strike hit a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. strikes followed an attack on a Singapore-flagged ship that had been transiting along the Omani coast rather than through Iranian-designated routes. As Harrison Berger reports, all of this is unfolding on day ten of negotiations meant to finalize a settlement ending the Iran War. Meanwhile, Israel continued to bomb and occupy southern Lebanon, just one day after signing a framework agreement with the U.S. and the Lebanese government. Berger notes that the framework, spearheaded by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, risks undermining the deconfliction mechanism that Vice President J.D. Vance had built into President Trump's interim peace agreement, which calls for the immediate termination of military operations in Lebanon and respect for Lebanese sovereignty. The Times of Israel reports it was precisely Vance's deconfliction language that infuriated the Israeli government. Hezbollah has rejected the framework outright, warning that forced disarmament could fracture Lebanon along sectarian lines and trigger civil war. Polling cited by Berger shows the country deeply split, with overwhelming Shiite and Sunni majorities opposing disarmament, and Christian and Druze majorities supporting it. Brent crude closed below seventy-two dollars Friday, with gasoline averaging three dollars and eighty-eight cents a gallon. Staying with the Iran file, TAC offers a longer view of where this relationship could be headed by the end of the Trump presidency. In a joint analysis, Evan Cooper and Will Smith lay out three possible scenarios shaped by the recent memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. The first, and they argue the most likely, is a return to the status quo ante: periodic U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, sustained sanctions, and a heavy American military footprint across the Middle East. Cooper and Smith call this "mowing the grass" and warn it solves nothing while locking the United States into a costly cycle. The second path they call the Charm Offensive, in which Iran negotiates in good faith, accepts meaningful limits on its nuclear program, and receives reconstruction funds and sanctions relief in return. The third, which they title "Time to Get Out of Dodge," sees President Trump simply declare victory, draw down U.S. forces well below pre-war levels, and let Gulf states build their own regional security architecture and a modus vivendi with Iran. Cooper and Smith argue that maximalism did not work before the war and will not work now. The memorandum, they write, represents a strategic defeat for the United States, and the worst outcome would be pretending otherwise. Their preferred course combines a limited nuclear deal with a serious reduction in American military exposure, freeing Washington to redirect attention to more pressing matters at home and elsewhere. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Saturday, June 27th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Phillip Linderman exposes how career diplomat Tressa Rae Finerty maneuvered around the White House to land a top UN refugee post, sidelining Trump's nominee and shielding UNHCR from a reform-minded American. U.S. Central Command strikes Iranian radar and drone sites along the coast in retaliation for Tehran's attack on a Singapore-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, testing the fragile sixty-day negotiating window. Ted Snider argues the Vance team's emerging Iran deal is worth signing but falls short of the JCPOA, and the war itself handed Tehran the Hormuz leverage it now wields at the table. and now for the details. We begin with a story about how the permanent bureaucracy can quietly shape American foreign policy, even against the wishes of an elected administration. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has appointed Tressa Rae Finerty, a U.S. career diplomat, to serve as Deputy UN High Commissioner for Refugees. The White House had nominated a different candidate, Simon Hankinson, a twenty-year Foreign Service veteran and Heritage Foundation migration researcher with a reformer's reputation. Guterres passed him over and chose Finerty, who, according to reporting, had asked the State Department to put her name forward but was told Hankinson was the nominee. She promoted her own candidacy anyway, while still serving as chargé d'affaires at the U.S. Mission in Geneva. As Phillip Linderman reports for The American Conservative, this is more than a personnel squabble. Since the United States provides roughly a quarter of UNHCR's eight to ten billion dollar annual budget, the deputy slot traditionally goes to an American, and Guterres, Linderman argues, deliberately rejected a candidate who might open the agency's books. Linderman lays out how UNHCR, in coordination with the Biden State Department, expanded cash assistance and debit-card programs that effectively subsidized economic migrants making the dangerous journey toward the U.S. border. He points to Federal Election Commission data showing 94 percent of State Department employee political contributions in the last cycle went to Kamala Harris, and argues this episode vindicates Secretary Rubio's recall of senior diplomats. Linderman urges UN Ambassador Mike Waltz to mount a forceful campaign against what he calls mission creep and mismanagement inside UNHCR. Turning to breaking news from the Middle East. U.S. Central Command says American forces conducted strikes late Friday New York time against radar and drone storage sites along the Iranian coast. According to the CENTCOM statement, the strikes were retaliation for an Iranian attack on a Singapore-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. As Jude Russo reports, Friday marked the ninth day of the sixty-day ceasefire and negotiation window established by the memorandum of understanding signed June 14 by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. This is a developing story. That tanker strike feeds directly into a broader analysis of where the Iran negotiations now stand. Vice President J.D. Vance and his team are pressing forward, but Iran has already secured the release of 12 billion dollars in frozen funds, a Treasury Department waiver on oil export sanctions during the 60-day talks, and a commitment in the memorandum that the Strait of Hormuz will allow free passage for only those sixty days. As Ted Snider writes for The American Conservative, the Trump administration is right to defend the agreement as necessary, but wrong to sell it as an improvement over the 2015 JCPOA or even the terms on the table before Israel and the United States struck Iran this February. Snider notes that under the JCPOA, Iran shipped out 97 percent of its enriched uranium and capped enrichment at 3.67 percent under what he calls perhaps the toughest inspection regime in history. Iran only began enriching to 60 percent after Trump withdrew from that deal and imposed maximum pressure sanctions. Snider quotes Stimson Center fellow Barbara Slavin, who tells TAC that Tehran is willing to temporarily suspend enrichment to win permanent access to frozen funds totaling as much as 124 to 167 billion dollars. The deeper lesson Iran has taken from the war, Slavin says, is that the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz gives Tehran far more leverage than additional centrifuges ever did. Snider's conclusion: a final agreement should be signed, but the war should never have been fought. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.