The Art of Investing

🇮🇹 The Art of Investing Heads to Rome

Rich is off to FX World in Rome, where he'll be joining panel discussions representing The Art of Investing. Wish him luck in the comments!

🎙️The Long and Short 🎙️

Can't wait until Friday? Rich McDonald and Piers Buckworth host The Long and Short every single Wednesday - 45 minutes on single stocks and the tech sector.

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok

🎧 Listen on: Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, the gents are suited and booted, just in time for the first big disappointment from a hyperscaler.

Rich McDonald, Mark 'Spice' Holden and Chris 'CJ' Fellingham unpack Google's cash burn, strong numbers from Microsoft and SK Hynix, and a market crash in Brazil.

Then CJ delivers his verdict on the "breathing room" Budget - 99 pages of changes for a net £7bn and 4p off gherkins - and what it means for gilts, banks and housebuilders.

And finally, the team pick apart the Fed's hawkish hold, ask whether the Fed put is back and weigh up a wave of AI-driven job cuts.

This Week's Highlights:

🔍 Google Wobbles as the Hyperscalers Raise Billions

Google posts negative cash flow, while Meta, OpenAI and SpaceX raise vast sums of new capital.

🇧🇷 Brazil's Market Crashes

The Bovespa falls 14% in a day after Lula is voted back in as president.

🇬🇧 The "Breathing Room" Budget

CJ calls it the "rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic" Budget, and explains why gilt investors should take no comfort.

🏦 Banks, Housebuilders and Gambling

Spice runs through the Budget's winners and losers.

🇺🇸 The Fed's Hawkish Hold

Why the team still expect a US rate rise in December, and whether the Fed put is back.

💼 AI and the Jobs Cull

Microsoft, HSBC, Barclays and even the Dutch government announce major AI-driven job cuts.

Portfolio Snapshot – Week 63:

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: +0.1%

📈 Total return since inception: +23.5%

📅 2026 year-to-date return: +10.9%

Top Performers:

📈 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +2.1%

📈 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +1.5%

📈 Vanguard FTSE 250: +1.0%

Underperformers:

📉 iShares Physical Gold ETC: -1.8%

📉 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: -0.6%

📉 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: -0.2%

Portfolio Changes:

No portfolio changes this week.

After two weeks of repositioning, the team are happy to wait until after the US midterms before making their next move.

Big Questions This Week:

- Are the cracks starting to show in the hyperscalers?

- Did the Budget do enough to calm the gilt market?

- Why is the government selling fewer long-dated gilts?

- Is the Fed put back?

- Will AI job cuts keep interest rates lower than expected?

What You'll Learn:

✔️ What a Budget scorecard reveals

✔️ How gilt issuance can affect mortgage rates

✔️ What a "hawkish hold" means

✔️ What the Fed put is and why it matters

✔️ How equity dilution affects shareholders

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

🎟️WIN 2x TICKETS TO THE LONDON INVESTOR SHOW. 

IG are giving away 2 tickets to one of the best Retail Investing events of the year. The London Investor Show takes places on Friday 30th October at Leonardo Royal Hotel, London. For your chance to win, leave the comment "LONDON INVESTOR SHOW" on the episode, we'll reply to the winning comment by Monday 26th October. 

More information here

🎙️ New Podcast! The Long and Short 🎙️

Can't wait until Friday? Rich McDonald and Piers Buckworth host The Long and Short, a new podcast releasing every single Wednesday covering single stocks and the tech sector – from Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft and Micron to SpaceX. 

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok

🎧 Listen on: Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, Spice goes digging in the portfolio's worst performer of its second year, and the chairman finally gets off the fence.

Fresh from being crowned Best Economist Creator at the FinFluencer Awards, Rich McDonald, Mark 'Spice' Holden and Chris 'CJ' Fellingham start with oil, where Spice's gut says a US move on Iran's Kharg Island could be close.

Then it's a packed week of results, from a blockbuster SpaceX to disappointing miners, plus Rich's warning on the 3x leveraged ETPs retail investors are piling into.

Spice reports back from a Bloomberg commodities conference on copper and the miners, and finally, with the portfolio down 2.6% in its second year, the chairman makes his move, trimming risk and raising cash to 22.5%.

This Week's Highlights:

🛢️ Oil, Kharg Island and the US Midterms

Why Spice is braced for escalation in the Middle East.

🚀 Earnings Season: SpaceX Soars, Netflix Stumbles

SpaceX and Tesla impress, while Netflix, BHP and Anglo American disappoint.

⚠️ The Danger of 3x Leveraged ETPs

Why one 3x chip product fell 33% in a single week.

⛏️ Copper vs Aluminium: Inside the Mining Sector

Data centre demand, tight supply and why the miners may offer better value than the metal.

🇬🇧 Budget, Inflation and Rate Rises

UK inflation hits 3.5% ahead of next week's Budget and the Bank of England's 5th November meeting.

🛡️ Bull Market or Wall of Worry?

CJ makes the bull case, then battens down the hatches.

Portfolio Snapshot – Week 62:

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: -1.2%

📈 Total return since inception: +23.2%

📅 2026 year-to-date return: +10.7%

Top Performers:

📈 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +1.5%

📈 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: +0.2%

📈 Vanguard FTSE 250: +0.1%

Underperformers:

📉 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: -4.9%

📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: -3.4%

📉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC: -3.2%

Portfolio Changes:

📉 Sell 2.5% iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC (10% → 7.5%)

📈 Buy 2.5% BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC (5% → 7.5%)

📉 Sell 2.5% iShares Russell 2000 ETF (7.5% → 5%)

📉 Sell 2.5% iShares Nikkei 225 ETF (10% → 7.5%)

💷 Cash increases from 17.5% to 22.5%

Equities fall to 57.5%, with 25% now held in cash and short-dated gilts.

Big Questions This Week:

- Is the US preparing to move on Kharg Island?

- Are leveraged ETPs a mug's game?

- Is copper's bull story already in the price?

- Is the market climbing a wall of worry?

- Is it time for the portfolio to get more defensive?

What You'll Learn:

✔️ How 3x leveraged ETPs work, and how they can go wrong

✔️ Why copper supply is struggling to keep up with demand

✔️ The difference between investing in a commodity and its miners

✔️ How the team think about cash and defensive positioning

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WLmVLzxUZLPAXkRujUokqZMfWR7spwkC/view?usp=sharing

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok

🎧 Listen on:  Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

Fresh from their first live show at Lord’s, Rich McDonald, Mark ‘Spice’ Holden and Chris ‘CJ’ Fellingham return to a bruising week for markets. Chip stocks have sold off sharply, Korea has slipped into a bear market, and the portfolio has had a tough week.

First up, Spice runs through the market update. It covers a higher oil price after Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries, a sharp sell-off in semiconductors and the start of earnings season. PepsiCo and Delta were both caught out by rising costs, while the big US banks impressed.

Then the team turn to CoreWeave, where soaring credit default swaps sparked a wobble across the AI trade. CJ explains what a credit default swap actually is, and why markets are now asking serious questions about the debt behind the AI build-out.

The team also tackle hot US inflation data and gloomy consumer sentiment, which have sent the odds of a Fed rate rise soaring. Is stagflation back on the table?

And finally, CJ makes the case that this bull market may have overstayed its welcome, while Spice argues why smaller and mid-sized companies could be the real winners from AI. Plus, the team reveal what the audience survey at Lord’s told them about how listeners are invested, and why so few are holding bonds.

 This Week’s Highlights:

🤖 CoreWeave: Is the AI Debt Party Over?
 CJ explains credit default swaps and why surging borrowing costs at CoreWeave rattled the whole AI trade.
 💻 Chips, Korea and a Brutal Week for Tech
 Spice unpacks the semiconductor sell-off, a Chinese memory chip breakthrough and Korea’s slide into a bear market.
 🇺🇸 Stagflation: The Worst of Both Worlds?
 Hot inflation and weak consumer confidence push up the odds of a Fed rate rise. CJ explains why stagflation is so hard to escape.
 🐻 Has the Bull Market Overstayed Its Welcome?
 From magazine covers to market breadth and concentration, CJ lays out the warning signs, and Spice makes the case for the optimists.
 🇬🇧 The UK: A Beacon of Stability
 The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 lead the portfolio as money rotates out of AI and into more defensive names.
 💰 Lessons from Lord’s
 What the live audience survey revealed about investors’ portfolios, and why bonds may deserve a second look.

Portfolio Snapshot – Week 61:
 📊 Weekly portfolio performance: -1.1%
 📈 Total return since inception: +24.5%
 📅 2026 year-to-date return: +11.9%

Top Performers:
📈 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: +2.2%
📈 Vanguard FTSE 250: +1.0%
📈 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +0.8%

Underperformers:
📉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC: -5.0%
📉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: -3.9%
📉 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: -3.7%
📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC: -3.6%

Disclaimer:
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

🏆 Vote for The Art of Investing in the FinFluencer Awards!

The Art of Investing has been nominated in the Best Economist Influencer category at the FinFluencer Awards.

With voting coming to a close, this is your last chance to support the show!

Vote here: https://www.finfluencer.digital/awards/uk/vote

🏏 The Art of Investing LIVE at Lord’s Cricket Ground

If you’ve registered to join us at Lord’s on 13th October, please check your inbox and confirm your attendance so we can finalise numbers for the evening. If you signed up but haven’t received an email, please get in touch with the team.

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok

🎧 Listen on:  Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, it’s a special episode dedicated to your questions.

With the team preparing for their first live show at Lord’s Cricket Ground, Rich McDonald, Mark 'Spice' Holden and Chris 'CJ' Fellingham turn their attention to some of the biggest investing questions sent in by listeners.

First up, CJ takes us to France, where political uncertainty and rising borrowing costs are putting pressure on European bond markets. Could the European Central Bank eventually be forced to intervene, and what does it all mean for European equities?

Then it’s over to Spice for a deep dive into Nike. After another profit warning, the team explain trough earnings, price-to-earnings ratios and the difficult art of spotting a corporate turnaround. They also explore the opposite problem: what happens when investors are paying for earnings that might already be at their peak?

The team also tackle a question about individual UK gilts versus gilt ETFs, exploring the differences in maturity, price movements, transaction costs and tax treatment.

And finally, the team lift the lid on the model portfolio, explaining how its weightings work, why they don’t automatically rebalance every position and how the performance figures are calculated.

This Week’s Highlights:

🇫🇷 Is France Becoming Europe’s Biggest Bond Market Problem?

CJ explores France’s debt troubles, rising bond yields and whether the ECB might need to intervene.

👟 Nike: Is the Worst Finally Over?

After another profit warning, Spice explains trough earnings, potential turnarounds and why value investing is harder than it looks.

📊 Trough Earnings vs Peak Earnings

Why might a stock trading on 25 times earnings be cheaper than one on seven times? The team examine P/E ratios, AI stocks and the risks of peak profits.

💰 Individual Gilts vs Bond ETFs

CJ explains the differences in maturity, costs and tax treatment when investing in UK government bonds.

📈 Record Highs, Rising Yields and Weak Jobs Data

US equities continue climbing despite higher borrowing costs and a slowing jobs market. Meanwhile, Japan and emerging markets lead the portfolio.

Portfolio Snapshot – Week 60:

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: +0.6%

📈 Total return since inception: +25.5%

📅 2026 year-to-date return: +13.0%

Top Performers:

📈 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +3.5%

📈 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC: +3.1%

📈 Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF: +1.7%

Underperformers:

📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC: -1.9%

📉 Vanguard FTSE 250: -1.8%

📉 Invesco Stoxx Euro 600 UCITS ETF GBP: -1.1%

📉 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: -1.0%

Portfolio Changes:

No portfolio changes this week.

The team maintains its 13 holdings, including 17.5% cash, 5% Nasdaq and 2.5% gold.

CJ also explains how the educational model portfolio tracks target weightings and why it doesn’t automatically adjust for market movements or dividends.

Big Questions This Week:

• Is France becoming Europe’s biggest bond market risk?
• Can US stocks keep rising despite higher borrowing costs?
• Should investors choose individual gilts or gilt ETFs?
• Is Nike approaching trough earnings?
• Are AI stocks heading towards peak earnings?
• How does the model portfolio actually work?

What You’ll Learn:

✔️ Why France’s debt troubles matter for investors

✔️ The differences between individual gilts and gilt ETFs

✔️ How to recognise trough and peak earnings

✔️ Why P/E ratios can be misleading

✔️ How growth and value investors approach struggling stocks

✔️ How the team calculates model portfolio performance

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

🏆 Vote for The Art of Investing in the FinFluencer Awards!

The Art of Investing has been nominated in the Best Economist Influencer category at the FinFluencer Awards.

You can cast your vote using the link below:
https://www.finfluencer.digital/awards/uk/vote 

🏏 The Art of Investing LIVE at Lord’s Cricket Ground

If you’ve registered to join us at Lord’s on 13th October, keep an eye on your inbox!

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok
🎧 Listen on:  Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, it’s time for the big end-of-quarter portfolio review.

With bond yields continuing to rise and markets becoming increasingly divided beneath the surface, Rich, Mark and Chris ask whether the investment environment is beginning to fundamentally change, and what that could mean for the portfolio over the final three months of the year.

CJ sets out three possible scenarios for markets: a continued surge in bond yields that ultimately leads towards recession; an AI-driven productivity boom that brings greater disinflationary pressure; or a continuation of the volatile environment investors are navigating today.

The team debate which scenario they think is most likely, whether it’s finally getting close to the time to buy longer-dated bonds, and whether AI can continue driving markets even as the cost of capital rises.

And after another difficult week for India, the investment committee finally loses patience, selling the position completely and reallocating the capital into the Nasdaq 100 and gold.

This Week’s Highlights:

📉 Are Bond Markets Reaching Breaking Point?
Bond yields continue to climb, forcing the team to ask how far they can rise before equity markets and the wider economy begin to feel the pressure.

🐻 Three Scenarios for the Next Three Months
CJ lays out three potential paths for markets: rising yields eventually triggering a recession, AI creating a powerful disinflationary environment, or markets continuing to grind through the current volatility.

🤖 Can AI Keep Defying Higher Rates?
Strong results from Micron reignite the AI debate. Mark argues that productivity gains could arrive faster than expected, while the team questions how long technology companies can remain insulated from higher borrowing costs.

💰 Is It Finally Time to Buy Bonds?
With long-dated yields moving higher, the team debates whether bonds are becoming attractive again – or whether investors could get an even better opportunity by waiting.

🥇 Gold Comes Back Into the Portfolio
After discussing gold for several weeks, the investment committee finally takes the plunge, adding a new allocation as part of its end-of-quarter portfolio changes.

🇮🇳 The Team Calls Time on India
India has been one of the portfolio’s most difficult positions. With the holding down again this week and remaining negative since inception, the team debates its outlook before deciding to exit completely.

Portfolio Snapshot - Week 59:

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: -0.5%
📈 Total return since inception: +25.0%
📅 2026 year-to-date return: +12.5%

Top Performers:

📈 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +3.0%
📈 Vanguard FTSE 250: +0.6%
📈 Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF: +0.3%

Underperformers:

📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: -3.8%
📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC: -3.1%
📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: -2.3%

Portfolio Changes:

The investment committee decides to sell the portfolio’s entire 5% India position after another difficult week for the holding.

The proceeds are split between two areas:

📈 +2.5% Nasdaq 100 - increasing the allocation from 2.5% to 5%.

🥇 +2.5% Gold - introducing a new direct gold allocation to the portfolio.

Big Questions This Week:

• How high can bond yields go before something breaks?
• Is the global economy moving towards recession or another period of strong growth?
• Could AI become a major disinflationary force?
• Can technology stocks continue performing as borrowing costs rise?
• Is it finally time to start buying longer-dated bonds?
• What happens if unemployment begins to rise?
• Has India become too difficult to justify in the portfolio?
• Is gold becoming more attractive as uncertainty increases?
• Where should investors be positioned heading into the final quarter of the year?

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

🎟️ Join The Art of Investing LIVE at Lord’s Cricket Ground!

Join Rich, Mark and Chris in the Long Room at Lord’s Cricket Ground on 13th October from 6:30pm for a special live edition of The Art of Investing, with special guests, prizes and more.

The event is completely free – sign up here:
https://www.ig.com/uk/the-art-of-investing-live

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok
🎧 Listen on:  Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich, Mark and Chris are joined by resident strategist Stewie Thompson to unpack a huge few days for global markets.

After three major central bank decisions, attention has quickly shifted back to inflation, interest rates and the bond market. Stronger-than-expected US economic data has pushed bond yields higher again and raised a big question for investors: how high can rates go before they start pulling money away from equities and other risk assets?

The team looks at what’s happening across US Treasuries, UK gilts and Japanese bonds, why the “competition for capital” matters, and whether central banks risk falling behind the curve.

There’s also plenty happening away from bonds. Oil has fallen sharply, the Nasdaq 100 and copper have pushed higher, AI continues to drive some extraordinary moves across technology stocks, and the US dollar has strengthened.

And after a strong week for the model portfolio, the team debates whether now is the moment to bank some profits and increase the amount of cash on the sidelines. 

This Week’s Highlights

📈 Why Bond Yields Are Back in Focus
Strong US economic data sends bond yields higher and forces markets to reassess how far interest rates may still need to rise.

💰 The Competition for Capital
Stewie explains one of the biggest themes facing markets: if investors can earn increasingly attractive returns from government bonds, what happens to demand for riskier assets?

🤖 AI Keeps Driving Markets
The team discusses another strong period for technology stocks, with AI investment and demand helping drive moves across Nvidia, Intel, AMD, Micron and the wider Nasdaq.

🧠 The Rise of AI Agents
The team looks at the potential impact of AI agents on everything from banking and insurance to travel and online shopping, and why the technology could create a new battle for consumers.

🛢️ Oil Falls, Markets Rally
A sharp fall in oil prices provides some relief to markets and helps support areas including emerging markets and commodities.

💵 The Dollar Strengthens
The US dollar pushes higher as stronger economic data attracts capital back towards the US and challenges expectations around the path for interest rates.

Portfolio Snapshot - Week 58:

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: +2.2%
📈 Total return since inception: +25.5%
📅 2026 year-to-date return: +13.0%

Top Performers:

📈 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +8.1%
📈 Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF: +6.4%
📈 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC: +4.3%
📈 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +3.8%

Underperformers:

📉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: -1.0%
📉 Cash: +0.1%
📉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF: +0.2%

Portfolio Changes

After a strong run for several of the portfolio’s positions, the team debates whether rising bond yields and the changing interest-rate outlook mean it’s time to take some risk off the table.

Japan comes under particular scrutiny following another strong week, with the position now up nearly 50% since inception.

The team ultimately decides to trim the Japan allocation by 2.5%, reducing it from 12.5% to 10%, and move the proceeds into cash.

That takes the portfolio’s combined allocation to cash and short-dated gilts to 20%, giving the team more dry powder while they watch what happens next across rates, bonds and global equity markets. 

Big Questions This Week:

• How high could bond yields go from here?
• Are central banks at risk of falling behind the curve on inflation?
• What does the “competition for capital” mean for equity investors?
• Can technology and AI stocks keep performing if borrowing costs continue to rise?
• Is the recent strength in the US dollar telling investors something about where global capital is moving?
• After a strong run, is now the time to take some profits and hold more cash?
• Can copper continue to benefit from the AI and infrastructure boom?

What You’ll Learn:

✔️ Why stronger economic data can push bond yields higher
✔️ How interest-rate expectations feed through into government bond markets
✔️ What investors mean by the “competition for capital”
✔️ Why higher bond yields can put pressure on riskier assets
✔️ How falling oil prices can affect commodities and emerging markets
✔️ Why AI investment continues to influence technology stocks and the wider market
✔️ How the team thinks about taking profits after a strong run
✔️ Why cash can play an important role when market uncertainty increases

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

🎟️ Join The Art of Investing LIVE at Lord’s Cricket Ground!

Join Rich, Mark and Chris in the Long Room at Lord’s Cricket Ground on 13th October from 6:30pm for a special live edition of The Art of Investing, with special guests, prizes and more.

The event is completely free – sign up here:
 https://www.ig.com/uk/the-art-of-investing-live

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
 View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok

🎧 Listen on:  Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich, Mark and Chris are joined by Kieron Lynch, a gilt market veteran whose career began during Britain’s 1976 financial crisis and spans 50 years across the UK bond market.

With oil above $100, bond yields climbing and central banks facing increasingly difficult decisions on interest rates, Kieron looks back to the inflation crisis of the 1970s to ask what investors and policymakers can learn from history.

The team explore why credibility matters so much to bond markets, whether the Bank of England is falling behind the curve and why treating inflation as “transitory” can be such a dangerous strategy. Kieron also explains what would need to happen before he becomes confident buying long-dated gilts again.

Plus, the team assesses another difficult week for the portfolio as rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar and changing expectations around AI investment put pressure on commodities and emerging markets.

This Week’s Highlights:

🕰️ What Can Investors Learn From the 1970s?
 Kieron takes us back to Britain’s 1976 financial crisis, when soaring inflation, negative real yields and collapsing confidence ultimately forced the UK to seek help from the IMF.

📈 Why Inflation Comes in Waves
 From the oil shocks of the 1970s to today’s disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, Kieron explains why defeating one inflationary shock doesn’t necessarily mean the problem is over.

🏦 Is the Bank of England Behind the Curve?
 The team questions whether incremental rate rises will be enough, with Kieron arguing that markets need convincing evidence that policymakers are serious about bringing inflation under control.

💷 Are Gilts Finally Becoming Attractive?
 With long gilt yields approaching 6%, Chris and Kieron debate whether current yields represent an opportunity – or whether investors should wait for stronger action from the Bank of England.

🤖 AI Hits a New Roadblock
 Warnings from leading AI executives over safety and the pace of development hit global chip stocks, while raising questions about whether hyperscalers could begin slowing their enormous capital expenditure plans.

🛢️ Oil Puts Markets Under Pressure
 Brent climbs to around $108 while US oil reaches $100, increasing inflationary pressure and contributing to a difficult week for commodities and other risk assets.

Portfolio Snapshot:

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: -1.2%
📅 2026 year-to-date return: +10.8%

Commodities were the biggest drag this week, with copper falling around 6% and BlackRock World Mining down around 5%. Emerging markets also came under pressure as semiconductor stocks fell, while the FTSE 100 was the portfolio’s strongest-performing risk asset.

Portfolio Changes:

No portfolio changes this week.

The team debate adding longer-dated gilts as yields approach potentially attractive levels, but ultimately decide to wait and see how the Bank of England and other major central banks respond. The portfolio therefore maintains its 15% cash position and 2.5% allocation to short-dated gilts.

Big Questions This Week:

• What can today’s investors learn from Britain’s inflation crisis in the 1970s?
• Is the Bank of England falling behind the curve?
• Why is credibility so important when central banks fight inflation?
• Are long-dated gilts finally becoming attractive at current yields?
• Could slowing AI investment reduce the competition for capital?
• Are resilient equity markets signalling strength or creating a false sense of security?

What You’ll Learn:

✔️ Why inflation can return in multiple waves
✔️ How monetary and fiscal policy worked together to restore UK market confidence
✔️ What investors mean when a central bank is “behind the curve”
✔️ Why bond markets react so strongly to central bank credibility
✔️ What could make long-dated UK gilts attractive again
✔️ Why treating inflation as permanent could actually help make it transitory

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

🎟️ Join The Art of Investing LIVE at Lord’s Cricket Ground!

Join Rich, Mark and Chris in the Long Room at Lord’s Cricket Ground on 13th October from 6:30pm for a special live edition of The Art of Investing.

The event is completely free – sign up here:
 https://www.ig.com/uk/the-art-of-investing-live

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
 View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok

🎧 Listen on:  Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, the team look ahead to a crucial week for global interest rates, with major central banks preparing to make their next moves as investors grapple with rising oil prices and an intensifying competition for capital.

Chris explains why he believes interest rates need to rise regardless of the latest inflation data, while Mark explores the bullish alternative: could AI-driven productivity and investment deliver economic growth strong enough to offset higher borrowing costs?

The team also examine Scott Bessent’s attempts to influence US bond markets, the strengthening Japanese yen and what record copper prices are telling us about demand, AI infrastructure and the global economy.

Plus, 25 years on from 9/11, Rich, Mark and Chris reflect on their experiences working in financial markets that day and the extraordinary market recovery that followed.

This Week’s Highlights:

🛢️ Oil Breaks Through $100
 Oil moves above $102 a barrel as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz puts energy markets and inflation back in focus.

🥉 Copper Hits Another Record High
 Copper reaches a new all-time high as supply tightens and demand from AI data centres continues to grow.

💴 The Yen Trade Pays Off
 The Japanese yen strengthens around 4%, helping the portfolio’s unhedged Nikkei 225 position and highlighting the impact currencies can have on overseas investments.

🏦 Should Central Banks Raise Rates?
 With major central bank decisions approaching, Chris argues policymakers should act now to demonstrate their commitment to controlling inflation.

🤖 Could AI Deliver Extraordinary Growth?
 The team debate whether AI-driven productivity could generate enough economic growth to offset higher borrowing costs.

📈 When Do Higher Yields Become a Problem?
 Chris asks where the tipping point lies at which attractive bond yields begin pulling capital away from equities.

Portfolio Snapshot - Week 56:

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: +0.2%
📈 Total return since inception: +24.8%
📅 2026 year-to-date return: +12.2%

Top Performers:

📈 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF: +2.8%
📈 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +2.8%
📈 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC: +1.0%

Underperformers:

📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: -2.9%
📉 Vanguard FTSE 250: -1.1%
📉 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: -0.9%
📉 Invesco STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF GBP: -0.8%

Portfolio Changes:

The team are selling their 5% holding in XLI SPDR US Industrials ETF and moving the proceeds into cash, taking the portfolio’s cash allocation from 10% to 15%.

After several weeks of discussing becoming more defensive, the additional cash gives the team greater flexibility should opportunities emerge.

Big Questions This Week:

• How much further could oil prices rise?
• Why has the Japanese yen strengthened so sharply?
• Should central banks raise rates even if inflation begins to soften?
• Can AI growth offset higher borrowing costs?
• When do higher bond yields begin pulling capital away from equities?
• Is now the right time to become more defensive?

What You’ll Learn:

✔️ Why oil above $100 could create renewed inflationary pressure
✔️ How currencies can transform returns from overseas investments
✔️ Why central banks face difficult decisions on interest rates
✔️ How AI investment is creating competition for capital
✔️ Why stronger growth doesn’t automatically mean higher equity valuations
✔️ Why the team are increasing their cash position

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok

🎧 Listen on: Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, the team ask whether the investment landscape is beginning to change as bond yields continue to climb around the world.

Chris compares the very different forces driving UK and US bond markets, arguing that while America faces a growing competition for capital to fund the AI investment boom, the UK is confronting a much more uncomfortable inflation and credibility problem.

The team also revisit Jackson Hole, where Kevin Warsh’s more hawkish message pushed markets towards expecting further interest rate rises, and examine the latest chapter in the increasingly public disagreement between Scott Bessent and Stanley Druckenmiller over the direction of US bond yields.

Alongside the macro debate, they answer listener questions on the role of short-dated gilts in a diversified portfolio, whether higher bond yields have changed the case for the Russell 2000, and why becoming emotionally attached to an investment can be one of the most dangerous mistakes an investor makes.

This Week’s Highlights:

🛢️ Oil Puts Markets Under Pressure
 Oil prices jump sharply as conflict escalates again in the Middle East, adding to inflation concerns and weighing on industrials, commodities and interest-rate-sensitive assets.

🏦 UK vs US: Two Very Different Bond Problems
 Chris explains why rising US yields reflect a shortage of capital, while UK bond markets are signalling much greater concern about long-term inflation and the credibility of monetary and fiscal policy.

🤖 Is AI Creating a Shortage of Capital?
 The extraordinary sums being invested in AI and data centres are increasing demand for funding, raising the question of how high bond yields may need to go before capital starts moving out of other assets.

📊 Does the Russell 2000 Still Make Sense?
 Mark explains why he remains positive on US small caps despite rising rates, pointing to strong domestic growth and expectations for significant earnings growth across the index.

🛡️ Why Hold Short-Dated Gilts?
 A listener challenges the portfolio’s short-term gilt position, prompting a discussion about diversification, defensive assets and why bonds do not always protect portfolios when inflation is driving markets.

❤️ The Danger of Falling in Love With an Investment
 The team share painful lessons from their own careers on becoming emotionally attached to positions, ignoring price action and allowing past profits or losses to influence future decisions.

Portfolio Snapshot - Week 55:

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: -0.9%
📈 Total return since inception: +24.6%
📅 2026 year-to-date return: +12.0%

Top Performers:

📈 Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF: +0.6%
📈 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: +0.4%
📈 iShares MSCI India ETF: +0.3%

Underperformers:

📉 XLI SPDR US Industrials ETF: -4.0%
📉 BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC: -2.2%
📉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: -2.0%

Portfolio Changes:

No portfolio changes this week.

The portfolio fell 0.9% as higher oil prices and rising bond yields weighed particularly heavily on cyclical assets, while technology and emerging markets provided some support. The portfolio remains up 12.0% year to date and 24.6% since inception.

Big Questions This Week:

• Are rising global bond yields beginning to change the investment landscape?
• Why are bond yields rising for very different reasons in the UK and the US?
• Could the enormous demand for capital from AI eventually pull money out of equities?
• Do short-dated gilts still have a role in the portfolio if they have delivered little return?
• Has the rise in bond yields weakened the investment case for the Russell 2000?
• How can investors avoid becoming emotionally attached to a winning or losing position?

What You’ll Learn:

✔️ Why rising bond yields do not always mean markets are worried about inflation
✔️ What UK bond markets are signalling about long-term inflation expectations
✔️ How the AI investment boom is increasing competition for capital in the US
✔️ Why short-term bonds can still play a defensive role within a diversified portfolio
✔️ How higher interest rates affect small and mid-sized companies differently
✔️ Why successful investors need to separate their emotions from their investment decisions

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]

📱 Behind the scenes: @_theartofinvesting on TikTok

🎧 Listen on: Apple, Spotify, YouTube 

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham are back with a big listener Q&A episode, taking on three of the biggest questions facing investors right now: should you bother picking single stocks, is gold worth buying again, and are equities entering a more difficult phase?

With Nvidia delivering another extraordinary update, Bitcoin back above $80,000, oil falling sharply, and bond markets still waiting on Jackson Hole, the team unpack a market where confidence is returning in some places, but the warning signs have not disappeared.

From the challenge of beating ETFs to the case for gold, AI infrastructure spending, and the hidden effect of new share issuance, this episode asks whether investors should be adding risk, sitting tight, or preparing for a harder turn in markets.

Portfolio Snapshot - Week 54:

No changes were made to the portfolio this week.

📊 Weekly portfolio performance: +0.5%

📈 Total return since inception: +25.4%

📅 2026 year-to-date return: +12.9%

Top Performers:

📈 BlackRock World Mining Trust PLC: +4.7% WoW

📈 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +1.9% WoW

📈 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETC: +1.8% WoW

Underperformers:

📉 XLI SPDR US Industrials ETF: -1.2% WoW

📉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: -1.2% WoW

📉 Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF: -1.1% WoW

This Week’s Highlights:

📊 Portfolio Edges Higher

The model portfolio rises around +0.5% on the week, taking performance to +25.4% since inception and +12.9% year-to-date.

🤖 Nvidia Reignites the AI Debate

Nvidia guides to 70% revenue growth for the year ending January 2028, but the team debate whether the market is still right to stay cautious.

📉 Bonds Stay in Focus

Stanley Druckenmiller criticises Scott Bessent’s Treasury bond-buying plan, keeping fiscal credibility and bond-market pressure firmly on the agenda.

🛢️ Oil Falls Sharply

Oil drops around 7% as progress around the Strait of Hormuz eases supply fears, helping bonds but raising new questions about inflation and commodities.

🥇 Gold Gets Another Look

After a strong rebound, the team debate whether gold deserves a place in the portfolio again, or whether real yields still make the case difficult.

📦 ETFs vs Stock Picking

CJ and Spice explain why even professional investors struggle to beat indices, and why ETFs remain the preferred route for most long-term investors.

🏗️ Re-Equitisation Risk

The team examine whether a wave of IPOs, AI funding and insider selling could reverse years of shrinking share supply and weigh on future returns.

Big Questions This Week:

• Is Nvidia still cheap, or is the market right to be suspicious of future AI growth?

• Should everyday investors bother picking single stocks, or stick with ETFs?

• Is gold attractive again after its pullback and rebound?

• Will weaker oil and a softer dollar bring central banks back into gold?

• Could a new wave of IPOs and equity issuance drag on market returns?

• Are investors close to the point where they should start reducing risk?

What You’ll Learn:

✔️ Why Nvidia’s numbers can be outstanding while the wider market still stays cautious

✔️ Why most active managers struggle to beat their benchmark over time

✔️ How factor ETFs can replace some traditional fund-manager exposure

✔️ Why real yields, the dollar and central-bank buying matter for gold

✔️ What “de-equitisation” and “re-equitisation” mean for stock market returns

✔️ Why Jackson Hole could shape the next portfolio move

Disclaimer:

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.