The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.37% as surging oil prices push inflation expectations higher, leading the bond market to price in two quarter-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve before year-end. Lucas and Luna break down the connection between crude oil's rally and the short end of the yield curve, examine why the 2-year is now yielding 74 basis points above the Fed funds rate, and discuss the implications for both Treasury and corporate bond investors. With oil up roughly 15% in the last month and the odds of a September rate hike rising, this episode offers a clear, data-driven look at how energy costs are reshaping Fed policy expectations and what that means for fixed-income portfolios in late July 2026.

#OilPrices #FedRateHike #2YearYield #Treasuries #YieldCurve #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #EnergyInflation #RateExpectations #ShortEnd #MonetaryPolicy #MarketRepricing

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The yield curve is steepening, but it's not just about Fed rate hikes or recession bets. Lucas and Luna break down term premium—the extra compensation investors now demand for holding long-term Treasuries. With the 10-year yield at 4.71 percent and the 2-year at 4.37 percent, the spread of 36 basis points is widening, but much of that move comes from a revival of term premium after years of negative readings. Oil prices surging above $85 and growing federal debt are forcing bondholders to demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk. The 30-year yield is at 5.17 percent, reflecting that long-end uncertainty. Lucas explains the math: if you strip out expected short-term rates, term premium has turned positive for the first time since the pandemic. Luna asks how this changes portfolio strategy, and Lucas points to TIPS and shorter-duration bonds as hedges. The episode also covers why the Fed's next move is now a coin flip—rate hike vs. hold—and how oil is reshaping the curve. A listener-funded segment explains how the show stays ad-free.

#TermPremium #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #2YearYield #30YearYield #OilPrices #FedRateHike #Inflation #BondMarket #TIPS #DurationRisk #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #Investing

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The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.68% while the Fed funds rate is stuck at 3.63% — a gap of over a full percentage point. In Episode 135, Lucas and Luna break down what's behind that spread: surging oil prices pushing up inflation expectations, a rising term premium driven by AI investment risk and fiscal deficits, and the market pricing in a potential rate hike. They explain why the 10-year isn't following the fed funds rate and what it means for investors. With references to the 2-year and 30-year yields, and a look at corporate credit stress, this episode dives into the mechanics of a stubbornly steep yield curve.

#BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FedFundsRate #TermPremium #10YearYield #YieldCurve #OilPrices #Inflation #FederalReserve #RateHikeOdds #CorporateBonds #CreditRisk #AIInvestment #FiscalDeficit #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast

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With oil prices surging and odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike rising, the Treasury market is repricing. Lucas and Luna break down how the 10-year yield climbed to 4.71%, the 2-year to 4.37%, and why the yield curve is steepening. They explore the connection between commodity inflation, Fed policy expectations, and what it means for bond investors. This episode uses live data from July 25, 2026, including the 30-year yield at 5.17% and the 3-month bill at 3.95%, to show how oil is driving the bond market narrative.

#OilPrices #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #RateHike #Inflation #BondMarket #10YearYield #2YearYield #30YearYield #CommodityInflation #MonetaryPolicy #Investing #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FixedIncome #Podcast

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The 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.70 percent in late July 2026, refusing to break higher or lower despite volatile oil prices and shifting rate expectations. Lucas and Luna examine why the market is stuck — from the Fed's steady hand on the IOER to a global bid for duration that's capping yields. They zero in on the 10-year real yield spread and what it signals about growth expectations. Plus, how the 2-year yield's rise to 4.31 percent is narrowing the curve again, and what that means for the recession debate.

#10YearYield #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #Economics #InterestRates #IOER #Inflation #RealYields #Duration #FOMC #BondInvesting #USDebt #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.70 percent as of July 23, 2026, driven by a combination of hawkish Fed expectations, surging oil prices above $100 a barrel, and a steepening yield curve that now shows the 5-year yield leading the move. Lucas and Luna break down what's behind this rapid rise, how it's affecting bond ETFs like TLT and IEF, and what it means for investors watching the 2-year to 10-year spread. They also examine why the 30-year yield is pushing above 5.13 percent and whether this signals a structural shift in inflation expectations or a temporary shock. With the Fed's next meeting looming, this episode offers a clear, data-driven look at the forces reshaping the Treasury market today.

#TreasuryYields #10YearYield #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #OilPrices #Inflation #TLT #IEF #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #PodcastEpisode #July2026 #SteepeningCurve #30YearYield #5YearYield

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Episode 131 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners. Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising July 2026 development—corporate bond yields are not following Treasuries higher. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% and the 30-year above 5.13%, investment-grade and high-yield spreads have actually tightened. Lucas explains why the 'risk-free' anchor is losing its grip on corporate debt, pointing to strong company balance sheets, the carry trade in credit, and a structural shift in institutional demand. The hosts examine how the LQD ETF (investment-grade corporate bonds) is down only 0.8% in five days while the long-term Treasury ETF TLT has lost 0.9%, and they discuss what this decoupling means for fixed-income investors. If you want to understand why corporate bonds are behaving differently from government debt in a rising-rate environment, this episode breaks it down with specific data, ETF tickers, and a clear framework.

#CorporateBonds #Treasuries #YieldCurve #CreditSpreads #LQD #HYG #TLT #FixedIncome #BondMarket #InvestmentGrade #HighYield #FederalReserve #SpreadTightening #Decoupling #July2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting

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Episode 130 of The Bond Market Podcast examines why Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are outperforming nominal Treasuries in late July 2026. Lucas and Luna break down the 10-year TIPS yield dropping to 1.25 percent, the breakeven inflation rate climbing to 3.41 percent, and what the 'TIPS spread' reveals about market expectations for Fed policy. They discuss the $42 billion in inflows into TIPS ETFs this year, how inflation breakevens are signaling a regime shift in bond pricing, and what it means for fixed-income investors wondering whether to own TIPS or conventional Treasuries. Packed with current data and a pragmatic framework for navigating the TIPS market.

#TIPS #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #BreakevenInflation #RealYield #InflationHedge #FixedIncome #BondMarket #FederalReserve #July2026 #TLT #IEF #TIP #YieldCurve #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondPodcast #MarketData

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Lucas and Luna examine how the corporate bond market is distorting Treasury yield relationships in July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.60 percent and investment-grade corporate bonds yielding 106 basis points more, hedge funds are exploiting the spread through credit arbitrage strategies. The hosts explain why this activity is flattening the Treasury curve artificially, how the 5-year Treasury note has become the battleground for these trades, and what happens when the arbitrage unwinds. They reference specific data including the current 37-basis-point spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, the 4.40 percent 5-year yield leading the steepening, and the growing divergence between credit markets and government bonds. Perfect for fixed-income investors and traders trying to understand why traditional yield curve signals are breaking down.

#CorporateBondArbitrage #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #InvestmentGradeBonds #CreditArbitrage #FixedIncome #BondMarket #HedgeFunds #10YearTreasury #5YearTreasury #LQD #TreasurySpread #MarketStructure #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast

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In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 5-year Treasury yield has surged 2.7% in the past week to 4.37%, outpacing gains in the 2-year and 10-year notes. They explore how this 'belly of the curve' move is reshaping the steepening narrative, with the 10-year-2-year spread at 37 basis points and the 30-year yield above 5%. The hosts discuss drivers from supply concerns to hedge fund positioning, and what it means for investors. They also touch on Jamie Dimon's recent warning about Treasury risks and how the 5-year is becoming the new battleground for rate expectations.

#5YearTreasury #YieldCurveSteepening #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FederalReserve #JamieDimon #InvestmentStrategy #BellyOfTheCurve #TreasurySupply #HedgeFunds #CurveSteepener #BondPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InterestRates #MarketSignal

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