The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

The yield curve has been steepening since late 2024 — but the recession many expected hasn't arrived. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the 10-year minus 2-year spread, which sits at 41 basis points as of July 16, 2026. They break down why longer-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields, with the 30-year Treasury breaking above 5% while the 3-month yield falls. The hosts explore two drivers: the Fed's rate cuts pushing short rates down, and the term premium rising on fiscal and inflation fears. They cite Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's call for higher rates as a key signal that the long end is repricing independently. The conversation challenges the old rule that a steepening curve always foretells a downturn, arguing instead that this steepening reflects a market recalibrating risk premiums in a no-recession scenario.

#YieldCurve #Steepening #Treasury #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #ThirtyYearYield #FivePercent #TermPremium #FederalReserve #LorieLogan #Recession #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #Economics #BondMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FixedIncome

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Episode 117 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield is pushing above 5 percent in mid-2026, even as shorter-dated yields fall. They break down the widening spread between the 30-year and the 2-year, now over 90 basis points, and what it signals about term premium, fiscal deficits, and inflation expectations. With the 10-year yield at 4.58% and the 2-year at 4.18%, the curve is steepening—but not for the usual reasons. Lucas walks through how the Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan calling for 'modestly' higher rates adds to the long-end pressure, while the market prices in rate cuts for the short end. The hosts also discuss what this means for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the broader economy. A focused look at one of the most telling moves in fixed income this summer.

#30YearTreasury #YieldCurve #TermPremium #FederalReserve #LorieLogan #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Inflation #FiscalDeficit #MortgageRates #PensionFunds #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #July2026

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The 2-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4.2 percent for the first time since early 2024, while the 10-year yield sits at 4.58 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what this narrowing spread means for recession timing, how the bond market is now pricing in Fed rate cuts, and why the 2-year yield may be a better early warning system than the yield curve itself. They look at the recent data: the 10-year minus 2-year spread has widened to 42 basis points, but the absolute level of the short end is dropping faster than the long end. They discuss whether the market is pricing a soft landing or a hard landing, and what Kevin Warsh's Senate testimony signals about the Fed's next move.

#TreasuryYields #2YearYield #YieldCurve #RecessionSignal #FedPolicy #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #KevinWarsh #InterestRates #SoftLanding #HardLanding #EconomicIndicators #MarketPricing #BondInvesting

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The 2-year Treasury yield has historically been a sensitive barometer of Fed rate expectations, but in mid-2026, something unusual is happening: the 2-year yield is rising even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics behind this decoupling, exploring how the market is effectively second-guessing the Fed's forward guidance on interest rates. With the 2-year at 4.26 percent and the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent, the gap between the two has widened to over 60 basis points — the largest since the early 2000s. They discuss what this spread signals about investor doubts over the Fed's ability to keep inflation in check without hiking again, and what it means for the rest of the yield curve. Specific data: 2-year yield up 5 basis points in the past week, while the 10-year yield rose only 6 basis points, steepening the front end. The episode also touches on how this dynamic affects short-duration bond ETFs and the broader fixed-income landscape.

#2YearYield #FedPolicy #InterestRates #BondMarket #Treasuries #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #ForwardGuidance #InflationExpectations #ShortDuration #FixedIncome #Economics #KevinWarsh #FedFundsRate #CentralBanking #BondETF #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5% for the first time since late 2023, and the long bond is sending a message the Fed can't ignore. Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the move — from term premium repricing to foreign demand fading — and what it means for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the curve. They also look at why the 10-year yield is lagging behind, and whether this is the start of a steeper normalisation or a warning about fiscal sustainability. Specific numbers: 30-year at 5.10%, 10-year at 4.62%, spread between them at 48 basis points and widening. No predictions, just the mechanics behind the move.

#30YearTreasury #LongBond #YieldCurve #TermPremium #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #BondMarket #FixedIncome #MortgageRates #PensionFunds #FiscalSustainability #KevinWarsh #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast #July2026

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In mid-2026, the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63% while the 3-month Treasury yield has fallen to 3.85% and the 10-year yield hovers at 4.56%. Episode 113 of The Bond Market Podcast examines how the Fed's key policy rate has lost its signaling power. Lucas and Luna discuss why short-term money markets now move independently of the Fed's target, how the spread between the funds rate and three-month bills has narrowed to just 23 basis points, and what this means for the Fed's ability to guide the economy. They also explore the role of the overnight reverse repo facility and the interest on reserves rate, which together create a floor that is increasingly disconnected from market reality. The episode concludes with a look at how the term premium in long-dated bonds may be sending a more honest signal than the Fed's own rate.

#FedFundsRate #LaggingIndicator #TreasuryYields #3MonthYield #10YearYield #InterestOnReserves #OvernightReverseRepo #TermPremium #MonetaryPolicy #Liquidity #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #Fexingo

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Episode 112 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into a quiet but critical shift in fixed-income markets: agency mortgage-backed securities are decoupling from Treasuries in July 2026. They unpack why the Ginnie Mae-Treasury spread just blew out to 45 basis points, how the Fed's running off its MBS portfolio faster than expected, and what that means for yield hunters and homebuyers. They ground the conversation in real data: the 10-year yield at 4.56 percent, the 2-year at 4.21, and the 10-2 spread now 36 basis points and widening. No clickbait, no hot takes — just two smart bond nerds talking through one specific, underappreciated trade.

#AgencyMBS #MortgageBonds #Treasuries #FedPortfolio #GinnieMae #FreddieMac #FannieMae #YieldSpread #PrepaymentRisk #DurationExtension #Convexity #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #July2026 #LucasAndLuna

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The three-month Treasury yield has fallen 13 basis points in just two weeks while the Fed Funds rate holds steady at 3.63 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack why the short end of the curve is moving independently of the central bank, how money-market funds are pulling cash from T-bills into overnight reverse repo, and what that means for the $500 billion carry trade that has been propping up hedge fund returns. They walk through the mechanics of the T-bill futures basis, the role of the ON RRP facility, and why this quiet dislocation might be the bond market's first real test of Fed credibility since 2023. Specific numbers include the 3-month yield at 3.83 percent, the Fed's interest on reserves at 3.65 percent, and the 10-year yield at 4.54 percent. No predictions, just mechanics.

#TreasuryBills #YieldCurve #FedFundsRate #CarryTrade #MoneyMarketFunds #ONRRP #TBillFutures #LiquidityCrisis #HedgeFunds #BasisTrade #ShortEnd #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketDislocation

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In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore why the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.54% despite the Fed holding its policy rate steady at 3.63%. They break down the widening disconnect between short-term rates anchored by the Fed and long-term yields driven by term premium, fiscal deficits, and global demand. Using current data — including the 30-year yield at 5.05% and the 2-year yield falling to 4.16% — they explain why the yield curve is steepening and what that means for investors. Lucas walks through the mechanics of term premium and how the Fed's interest on reserves is capping the short end but not the long end. They also touch on the bond market's signal that fiscal spending and inflation expectations are keeping long rates elevated, even as the economy shows signs of cooling. A must-listen for anyone trying to understand why bonds are behaving differently in mid-2026.

#10YearTreasury #FederalReserve #BondMarket #YieldCurve #TermPremium #FiscalDeficit #TreasuryYields #InterestOnReserves #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macro #InflationExpectations #30YearYield #2YearYield #LucasAndLuna #TheBondMarketPodcast

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The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.1% — below the Fed's 2% target for the first time in three years. Hosts Lucas and Luna unpack what this means for TIPS investors, why the bond market is signaling a potential undershoot on inflation, and whether inflation-protected bonds still make sense as a hedge. With the 5-year TIPS yield turning positive and real yields climbing, the episode explores a contrarian case: that TIPS might now be a bet on higher inflation, not lower. Lucas walks through the mechanics of the breakeven spread, the role of falling oil prices and shelter costs, and why the bond market's inflation expectations may be too pessimistic. A must-listen for fixed-income investors questioning their TIPS allocation.

#TIPS #BreakevenRate #Inflation #RealYields #Treasuries #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #July2026 #Contrarian #Economics #Finance #Investing #YieldCurve #InflationExpectations #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast

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