The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

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The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners episodes

  • How the 10-30 Year Treasury Spread Signals Term Premium

    Episode 98 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo drills into one specific number: the spread between the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, now at about 50 basis points. Lucas and Luna explore what that gap says about the term premium investors demand for holding long-duration bonds in July 2026, why that premium has expanded as the yield curve steepens, and whether the 30-year yield above 4.99 percent is a warning about fiscal risk or just a repricing of supply. They reference current data—30-year at 4.99, 10-year at 4.48, and the 2-year at 4.14—to ground the conversation. No jargon overload, just one clear angle on what the back-end spread is telling us about the bond market's view on the next decade versus the next three decades.

    #TermPremium #30YearTreasury #10YearTreasury #YieldCurve #LongDuration #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FiscalRisk #SupplyDynamics #InflationExpectations #DurationRisk #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Bonds #July2026

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    7 min
  • How Hedge Funds Are Gaming the SOFR-Treasury Basis Trade

    In July 2026, the SOFR-Treasury basis trade has become a quiet battleground for hedge funds and dealer desks. Lucas and Luna unpack how the Secured Overnight Financing Rate is diverging from Treasury bill yields, creating a low-risk arbitrage that's drawing billions. With the 3-month T-bill at 3.85 percent and interest on reserves at 3.65 percent, the spread is compelling for levered players. But regulators are watching: the FICC is tightening clearing requirements for repo transactions. This episode explains the mechanics of the basis trade, why the spread exists, and what happens if it snaps back. A concrete look at one of the most popular fixed-income trades of the third quarter, grounded in July 6 market data.

    #SOFR #TreasuryBasisTrade #HedgeFunds #FixedIncome #RepoMarket #BondMarket #TreasuryBills #Arbitrage #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #YieldCurve #InterestRates #FedPolicy #Liquidity #FICC #Leverage

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    10 min
  • How the Two-Year Yield Is Breaking the Fed's Hold

    Episode 96 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising divergence between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed's policy rate in July 2026. With the 2-year at 4.17% and the Fed holding at 3.65%, they explore how aggressive T-bill supply and shifting rate expectations are reshaping the short end of the curve. Lucas breaks down the mechanics of the 3-month vs 2-year spread, the role of money market funds, and why this decoupling matters for everyone from day traders to retirement savers. Data-driven, conversational, and grounded in live market numbers from July 6, 2026.

    #TwoYearYield #TreasuryBills #FedPolicy #YieldCurve #ShortEnd #MoneyMarketFunds #TBillSupply #FOMC #InterestOnReserves #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #Investing #July2026 #MarketDivergence #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast

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    9 min
  • Why Muni Bonds Are Beating Treasuries in July 2026

    State and local government bonds are on a tear relative to Treasuries. The 10-year yield sits at 4.48% as of July 1, 2026, but many high-grade municipal bonds now yield more than Treasuries on a tax-equivalent basis. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics: why supply is limited, demand from insurance companies and high-net-worth individuals is surging, and the 30-year Treasury yield at 4.97% is pulling muni yields higher. They look at a specific example: a 10-year general obligation bond from California yielding 3.8% tax-free, which for a top-bracket investor equals roughly a 6.3% taxable yield. They also discuss the risk of credit downgrades and the impact of potential federal tax changes.

    #MunicipalBonds #TaxFreeYield #Treasuries #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #Investing #Economics #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Finance #BondMarket #30YearYield #CaliforniaBonds #TaxEquivalentYield #HighNetWorth #Insurance

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    8 min
  • Why T-Bill Auctions Are Breaking the Short-End Trade

    Episode 94 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna examine a fresh phenomenon shaking the short end of the Treasury curve. With the 3-month yield at 3.85 percent and the Fed's interest on reserves at 3.65 percent, the Treasury's massive bill issuance is creating a peculiar dynamic where short-term yields are actually falling relative to longer-term ones — the opposite of what textbook economics would predict. They walk through the mechanics of the 'T-bill conundrum,' how primary dealer behavior is amplifying the effect, and what it means for money market funds, corporate treasurers, and retail investors parking cash. Specific, data-grounded, and directly relevant to anyone wondering why their high-yield savings account rate isn't tracking short-term Treasury yields anymore.

    #TreasuryBills #TBillAuction #ShortEnd #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FedPolicy #InterestOnReserves #MoneyMarketFunds #Liquidity #PrimaryDealers #TreasurySupply #CashManagement #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BondMarketPodcast #BusinessPodcast #Finance

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    8 min
  • Why TIPS Are Losing Their Inflation Protection Edge

    Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point from July 2026: TIPS are underperforming nominal Treasuries even as inflation stays sticky. The TIP ETF is down 0.3% over the past five days while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.48. They explain what's going on with break-even inflation rates, the role of real yields, and what this means for fixed-income investors who thought TIPS were a safe hedge. Along the way, they touch on the steepening yield curve and why the 30-year bond yield is flirting with 5%. A concrete look at why the inflation-protection trade is losing its luster right now.

    #TIPS #Treasuries #Inflation #BondMarket #RealYields #BreakEvenInflation #YieldCurve #TIPETF #TLT #IEF #SHY #BND #AGG #LQD #HYG #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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    6 min
  • Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening in July 2026

    The yield curve is steepening — the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has widened to 35 basis points, up from 31 just days ago. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving that move: the 2-year yield is stuck near 4.17 percent, anchored by a Fed holding its policy rate at 3.65 percent, while the 30-year bond yield has jumped to 4.97 percent. They explain how long-term bond investors are demanding more term premium to hold duration risk amid sticky inflation and heavy Treasury supply, and why a steepening curve doesn't always signal economic strength. No hot takes — just a clear, data-driven look at what the curve is saying right now.

    #YieldCurve #SteepeningCurve #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #30YearYield #2YearYield #FedPolicy #TermPremium #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Inflation #TreasurySupply #Economics #BondInvesting #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketData

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    9 min
  • Why the Bond Market Is Unpricing Recession Risk in July 2026

    The yield curve has been inverted for two years, but something strange is happening in July 2026: the 2-year yield is rising while the 10-year yield is rising faster, pushing the spread to 35 basis points. Lucas and Luna explore why the bond market is starting to unpriciate recession risk—and what that means for investors. They focus on the 10-year yield bump from 4.44 to 4.48 and the 2-year climb from 4.14 to 4.17, and discuss whether the Fed's flat rate of 3.65 is losing its grip. With TLT down 1.8% in five days and HYG up 0.3%, the hosts ask if the market is pricing in a 'no landing' scenario instead of a recession. A specific look at one week that may signal a regime shift.

    #YieldCurve #RecessionRisk #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #BondMarket #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #Spreads #TLT #HYG #FixedIncome #Investing #Macro #Economics #July2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast

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    9 min
  • How the 2-Year Yield Is Ignoring the Fed in July 2026

    In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore the puzzling disconnect between the 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed's rate stance. With the 2-year yield at 4.17% as of July 1, 2026, it's refusing to follow the Fed's 3.65% interest on reserves. They break down why the bond market is pricing in higher rates despite the Fed holding steady, using the latest data on the 10-year yield (4.48%) and the 2-year yield spread widening to 0.35. They also look at corporate bond ETF inflows, especially LQD and HYG, which show investors reaching for yield. The episode ends with a sincere note on listener support.

    #BondMarket #TreasuryYield #2YearYield #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurve #CorporateBonds #ETFInflows #LQD #HYG #Treasuries #Economics #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FixedIncome #YieldSpread #Inflation

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    6 min
  • How the 2-Year Yield Is Ignoring the Fed in July 2026

    Episode 89 of The Bond Market Podcast: In July 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield is rising even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas and Luna dive into why short-term yields are decoupling from policy, focusing on the Treasury's massive bill issuance and the market's hawkish repricing. With the 2-year at 4.14 and the 10-year at 4.44, the spread is narrowing—but not for the reasons you'd expect. The hosts explore how the Fed's interest on reserves (IOR) at 3.65 is no longer the floor it once was, and what that means for the curve. Plus, a look at how this dynamic is rippling into corporate bonds and ETFs like SHY and LQD. No hot takes, just data and context.

    #TwoYearTreasury #FedPolicy #TreasuryYields #InterestOnReserves #BondMarket #YieldCurve #TreasuryBillSupply #SHY #LQD #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #Business #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondETF

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    9 min

About The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

From the publisher's feed

Lucas and Luna cut through the noise of the fixed-income market every day on The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo. This is not a show about predicting the next Fed cut or chasing yield — it is a methodical, data-grounded conversation about the mechanics of Treasuries, corporate bonds, and the yield curve. Lucas, a former bond trader turned journalist, brings the institutional perspective: what the belly of the curve is telling us, why duration risk matters now, and how repo market stress reveals hidden leverage. Luna, a macro strategist with a talent for making the arcane accessible, asks the questions that turn a Bloomberg screen into a story. Together they walk through real price action — steepeners, bull flatteners, credit spreads — without jargon for jargon's sake. Each episode is built around a single theme: the liquidity profile of an ETF, the tax implications of munis, the math behind a corporate debt restructuring. The listener comes away not with a tip but with a framework. By the time the closing bell rings, you will understand why a two-year note moved three basis points — and why that matters more than most headlines. Can you read a yield curve? After this show, you won't just read it — you'll know what it's saying.