The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

Episode 88 of The Bond Market Podcast unpacks a striking divergence: the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.97 percent, while the fed funds rate sits at 3.65 percent. Lucas and Luna explore the term premium, the supply glut of long-dated debt, and the structural demand gap from pension funds and foreign buyers. They walk through how the 30-year's steep yield is reshaping mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, and why this isn't a repeat of the 2023 bear steepener. With the 10-year at 4.44 and the 2-year at 4.14, the curve is flattening from the long end in a way that puzzles many fixed-income veterans. This episode gives you the one concrete number to watch: the 30-year minus fed funds spread, now at 132 basis points. No fluff, just the mechanics.

#TreasuryYields #30YearBond #TermPremium #FedFundsRate #YieldCurve #MortgageRates #BondSupply #PensionFunds #ForeignBuyers #BearSteepener #FixedIncome #Economics #Investing #BondMarket #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondETF

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

It's one of the most obscure but powerful tools the Fed has: Interest on Reserve Balances, or IORB. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explain how the IORB rate, currently at 3.65 percent, acts as a floor under short-term yields and ripples all the way out to the 30-year bond. They walk through the mechanics—how banks arbitrage the gap between IORB and Treasury bill yields, why the 3-month yield at 3.87 percent hasn't fallen below IORB, and what the recent flattening of the 10-year versus 2-year spread (now 30 basis points) tells us about the Fed's grip. If you've ever wondered why the bond market seems to follow an invisible hand, this episode shows you which hand it is—and where it's pointing.

#FederalReserve #InterestOnReserves #IORB #MonetaryPolicy #BondYields #Treasury #ShortTermRates #YieldCurve #BankingSystem #FedFunds #CentralBanking #Economics #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #TheBondMarketPodcast

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how a surge in Treasury bill issuance is creating upward pressure on short-term yields, even as the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady. With the 3-month yield at 3.87 percent and the 2-year note rising to 4.10 percent, they explore the mechanics of bill supply, dealer balance sheets, and the impact on money market funds. They also discuss how this dynamic contrasts with longer-term Treasuries, where yields have edged lower. Using the latest market data from July 2026, the hosts explain why short-end investors are demanding a premium and what this means for the yield curve's persistent inversion. A must-listen for fixed-income beginners looking to understand the supply-demand forces shaping today's bond market.

#TreasuryBills #ShortTermYields #BondSupply #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #MoneyMarket #3MonthYield #2YearYield #10YearYield #FiscalPolicy #DebtCeiling #Liquidity #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TreasuryAuctions

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 85 of The Bond Market Podcast dives into the most powerful rate you've never heard of: the Interest on Reserve Balances, or IORB. As of July 1, 2026, it sits at 3.65 percent, quietly acting as the floor beneath short-term yields. Lucas explains how this rate — paid by the Fed to banks on their reserves — works as the actual 'fed funds rate' in practice, and why the effective fed funds rate hugs it so tightly (they're just two basis points apart right now). Luna asks the critical question: does IORB still work when the Fed has shrunk its balance sheet by over two trillion dollars? They walk through the plumbing — from the overnight repo market to money market funds — and why the 3-month Treasury yield at 3.87 percent is now twenty-two basis points above IORB, a spread that hints at scarcity dynamics. They also touch on Cleveland Fed President Hammack's recent comments about AI and inflation, connecting the dots to how IORB might shift in a higher-for-longer scenario. No jargon, just the lever that moves every yield curve.

#IORB #FederalReserve #InterestOnReserves #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FedFundsRate #MonetaryPolicy #ShortTermRates #MoneyMarket #RepoMarket #Liquidity #BalanceSheetRunoff #Hammack #Inflation #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On June 30, 2026, Cleveland Fed President Hammack warns that AI could fuel inflation, potentially triggering rate hikes. Yet the 2-year Treasury yield is dropping — now at 4.07%, down from 4.09%. Lucas and Luna explore why the bond market is betting against the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, examining the growing disconnect between Fedspeak and yield action. They dig into the 10-year yield sitting at 4.38% and the 2s10s spread narrowing back to 28 basis points, questioning whether the market sees Hammack's comments as outlier hawkish. With small caps rallying and inflation expectations easing, this episode asks: is the bond market pricing in a policy mistake, or is it just ignoring the Fed’s AI concern?

#BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #LorettaMester #BethHammack #AIInflation #YieldCurve #TwoYearYield #TenYearYield #MonetaryPolicy #RateHikes #SmallCaps #EconomicData #Inflation #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #PodcastEpisode

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine a striking trend that has recently reshaped fixed-income markets: massive inflows into corporate bond ETFs in June 2026. They break down why LQD and HYG have seen significant buying even as Treasury yields remain elevated, and what this says about investor appetite for credit risk. Using the latest yield data, the hosts explore how ETF demand is compressing spreads and changing liquidity dynamics in the corporate bond market. They also discuss whether this shift could make the market less efficient during the next downturn. A focused, numbers-driven conversation for anyone following bond markets or looking to understand where capital is flowing right now.

#CorporateBondETF #LQD #HYG #InvestmentGrade #HighYield #ETFInflows #CreditSpreads #BondMarketLiquidity #MarketStructure #FixedIncome #June2026 #Economics #BondMarketPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasandLuna #YieldCurve #InvestorBehavior

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine how the 30-year Treasury yield, currently at 4.86 percent, is influencing mortgage rates and the housing market. They break down the record-wide spread between mortgage bonds and Treasuries, explain why the 30-year yield has stayed above 4.8 percent for months, and discuss what this means for homebuyers and refinancing activity in June 2026. With the Fed holding rates steady and the yield curve still inverted, the hosts explore the mechanics of the mortgage-backed securities market and the role of institutional investors. Specific data points include the 30-year yield's five-day decline of 1.7 percent and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF's recent gains. A focused look at one key yield and its real-world impact on borrowers.

#30YearTreasury #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #BondMarket #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #MBS #Refinancing #Homebuyers #TLT #IEF #Inflation #FixedIncome #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondPodcast

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the 30-year Treasury yield, which is holding above 4.8% even as the Fed signals a possible rate hike. They explore what the long bond's stubborn premium tells us about inflation expectations, term premium, and the changing shape of the yield curve. With the 10-year at 4.4 and the 2-year at 4.09, the curve is steepening — but not for the usual reasons. Lucas breaks down the role of foreign demand, fiscal deficits, and insurance companies as natural buyers of duration. Luna questions whether the 'convexity bid' is still real. A focused look at the long end of the curve for June 2026.

#30YearTreasury #LongBond #YieldCurve #TermPremium #Inflation #FedHike #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #Duration #Convexity #FixedIncome #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #Macro #June2026

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore a striking divergence in fixed-income markets: while Treasury yields have ticked down in late June 2026, high-yield corporate bonds—junk bonds—are barely budging. They dig into the data: the 10-year yield at 4.40 percent, the HYG ETF flat over the past week, while investment-grade bonds like LQD are up. What explains the disconnect? Lucas points to a shift in risk appetite, with investors rotating out of high-yield and into safer assets amid sticky inflation and a Fed that still hints at a rate hike. Luna brings up the recent CNBC headline about Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expecting a hike this year, which has traders reassessing credit risk. They also touch on how bond ETF flows are amplifying the move, with HYG seeing outflows while IEF and TLT attract inflows. The episode closes with a forward look: if the Fed actually delivers a hike, junk bonds could face a real repricing. This is a focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to understand what bond markets are saying right now.

#HighYieldBonds #JunkBonds #Treasuries #YieldCurve #BondETF #HYG #LQD #TLT #IEF #FedRateHike #NeelKashkari #RiskOnRiskOff #CreditSpreads #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarket

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

While US 10-year yields hover near 4.4% and the 2s10s spread stays flat at 31 basis points, bond markets in Europe and Japan are offering better risk-adjusted returns. Lucas and Luna break down why international bonds are drawing investor attention in late June 2026, with the 30-year Treasury stuck at 4.86% and the Fed holding rates at 3.63%. They look at how the yield advantage is shifting abroad, what the flattening curve tells us about rate expectations, and whether adding foreign government bonds makes sense for a beginner portfolio. No jargon, just a clear look at why the action in fixed income is increasingly global.

#GlobalBonds #InternationalDiversification #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #YieldCurve #10YearTreasury #30YearTreasury #2s10sSpread #FedRate #PortfolioDiversification #EuropeanBonds #JapaneseBonds #Economics #InvestingForBeginners #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast

Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo