The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

Lucas and Luna dissect a quiet revolution in fixed-income markets: the Fed's interest on reserves is now 3.65%, but the effective fed funds rate has drifted to 3.63% — a two-basis-point gap that signals a structural shift. They explore how repo market plumbing, bank reserve scarcity from quantitative tightening, and the SOFR rate's growing dominance are making the fed funds rate a less reliable policy anchor. Drawing on July 12 data, they show why traders are watching the 10-year yield at 4.57% and the 30-year at 5.07% more closely than the Fed's target. A deep dive into the mechanics behind the headlines, with no jargon left unexplained.

#FedFundsRate #InterestOnReserves #SOFR #RepoMarket #QuantitativeTightening #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #30YearYield #BankReserves #MonetaryPolicy #FixedIncome #Economics #Liquidity #CentralBanking #July2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast

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In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed's forward guidance is failing to anchor long-term yields in July 2026. With the 10-year yield at 4.57% and the 30-year at 5.07%, markets are ignoring the Fed's 'higher for longer' message. The hosts break down how a new FOMC task force, led by Kevin Warsh, signals a shift in communication strategy. They discuss the widening gap between the Fed's dot plot and market pricing, and what it means for fixed-income investors. If you've been confused by why yields keep rising despite the Fed holding rates steady, this episode offers a clear, data-driven explanation.

#ForwardGuidance #FederalReserve #BondYields #10YearTreasury #30YearTreasury #KevinWarsh #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #InterestRates #Economics #FixedIncome #TreasuryBonds #MarketPricing #DotPlot #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: TIPS spreads have been compressing even as core inflation stays sticky above 3 percent. They walk through the mechanics of breakeven inflation rates, why the TIPS market might be sending a false signal, and what it means for fixed-income investors who rely on inflation protection. Drawing on July 2026 data — the 10-year TIPS yield at 1.85 percent, the 5-year breakeven sliding to 2.3 percent — they question whether the market is too optimistic about the Fed's next move. A focused look at one corner of the bond market that everyone is watching but few understand.

#TIPS #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #InflationOutlook #BreakevenRate #RealYield #BondMarket #FederalReserve #FixedIncome #CPI #CoreInflation #July2026 #Economics #Podcast #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast #Investing

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In Episode 105 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between TIPS and nominal Treasuries, using the breakeven inflation rate as a compass for market psychology. With the 10-year breakeven sliding to 2.15% and the Fed's interest on reserve balances stuck at 3.65%, they unpack what the TIPS market is saying about the durability of inflation over the next decade. Lucas explains the mechanics of the TIPS breakeven, walks through the real-yield conundrum, and connects the dots to term premium and the steepening yield curve. Along the way, they reference the July 2026 data: the 10-year nominal yield at 4.56, TIP ETF down 0.4% over five days, and the Fed's IORB anchor. A must-listen for fixed-income investors trying to decode whether the market is pricing a soft landing or a hard one.

#TIPSSpreads #BreakevenInflation #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FedPolicy #RealYields #TermPremium #InflationExpectations #YieldCurve #TIPS #Treasuries #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #July2026 #BondInvesting #Macro

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Episode 104 of The Bond Market Podcast: Lucas and Luna examine why investment-grade corporate bond spreads are widening even as Treasury yields remain elevated. With the yield curve steepening and the Fed holding rates at 3.65 percent, companies like Verizon and Lockheed Martin are turning to private credit—a $70 billion Goldman Sachs deal this week signals a structural shift. The hosts unpack how the spread on the LQD ETF—which tracks investment-grade corporates—has ticked wider, while the HYG ETF for high-yield is flat. They also explore what the 10-year yield at 4.56 percent and the 2-year at 4.21 percent mean for corporate borrowing costs. A focused look at how bond market liquidity and bank regulation are reshaping credit markets in mid-2026.

#CorporateBonds #CreditSpreads #InvestmentGrade #HighYield #GoldmanSachs #Verizon #LockheedMartin #PrivateCredit #LQD #HYG #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #BondMarket #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Lucas and Luna explore a quiet but consequential shift in fixed income: the growing decoupling of agency mortgage-backed securities from Treasury yields. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.55 percent and the 30-year at 5.05 percent, MBS spreads have widened sharply in July 2026, driven by elevated prepayment uncertainty, Federal Reserve portfolio runoff, and a structural decline in new origination volume. Lucas explains how the Fed's passive unwind of its MBS holdings has removed a key buyer from the market, leaving spreads more sensitive to mortgage rate volatility. Luna notes that the effective duration of the Bloomberg MBS Index has shortened, making the sector behave less like long-duration bonds and more like a convexity headache. The episode focuses on the mechanics of dollar roll financing, negative convexity, and why the yield spread between current-coupon MBS and the 10-year Treasury has pushed past 150 basis points for the first time since early 2023. A specific look at how agency MBS are no longer trading as 'Treasury-plus' but as a distinct, volatility-prone asset class.

#MortgageBackedSecurities #AgencyMBS #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #Convexity #PrepaymentRisk #DollarRoll #FedBalanceSheet #FixedIncome #BondMarket #Spreads #Duration #CurrentCoupon #Refinancing #July2026 #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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The 3-month Treasury yield has dropped to 3.86 percent, even though the Fed's interest on reserves sits at 3.65. Lucas and Luna explain why short-term yields are diverging from the Fed's policy rate. The episode drills into the mechanics of repo markets, money market fund flows, and Treasury bill supply. Lucas points out that the 3-month yield is now just 21 basis points above the IORB rate — the narrowest spread since March. They discuss what this signals about liquidity and whether the Fed's floor is starting to crack. A data-driven look at a quiet but telling move in the front end of the curve.

#3MonthYield #TreasuryBills #FedPolicy #IORB #MoneyMarkets #RepoMarket #ShortEndOfTheCurve #FixedIncome #Liquidity #TermPremium #YieldCurve #BondMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Finance #Investing #Macro

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The Federal Reserve released minutes from its June meeting on July 8, 2026, and they showed something rare: an open split among voting members. Lucas and Luna dig into the details—how the 10-year yield at 4.48 percent and the 2-year at 4.13 percent reflect a market that doesn't know which way the Fed will move next. They trace the 'family fight' to the gap between the Fed's 3.65 percent interest on reserves rate and the effective fed funds rate at 3.63, and explain why the yield curve's steepening to 36 basis points signals more than just economic optimism. If you've ever wondered how internal Fed debates actually move bond prices, this episode walks through the mechanics with specific numbers and a recent real-world example.

#FederalReserve #FedMinutes #InterestRates #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Steepening #TermPremium #10YearYield #2YearYield #InterestOnReserves #BasisPoints #RateSplit #DebtCeiling #Economics #FexingoBusiness

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In episode 100 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna mark the milestone by zooming out — not to recap past episodes, but to ask what the yield curve on July 8, 2026 actually says about the market's own long-run expectations. They anchor on the 3-month versus 10-year spread, now 0.61 percentage points, and the 10-year at 4.48 percent, and explore why term premium — not just expected rate cuts — is driving the shape. Lucas walks through the two competing narratives (soft landing vs. stubborn inflation) and shows how the 5-year forward breakeven rate embeds a market doubt about the Fed's 2 percent target. Luna questions whether the bond market has ever successfully predicted a recession two years out, and they close with a thoughtful look at what the curve's current flatness implies for investors locking in yields today. A warm, low-key donation segment acknowledges listeners who keep the show ad-free via buymeacoffee.com/fexingo, then the episode ends on a question about whether the 10-year yield can stay below 4.5 percent into 2027.

#BondMarket #YieldCurve #TermPremium #SoftLanding #InflationExpectations #TenYearYield #ThreeMonthYield #ForwardBreakeven #FedPolicy #EconomicOutlook #InvestorStrategy #FixedIncome #July2026 #Episode100 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Treasuries #LucasAndLuna

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The Fed's Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is the quiet mechanism that keeps short-term Treasury yields from falling below 3.65 percent. When the 2-year yield recently dipped to 4.14 and the 3-month yield slid to 3.82, that floor prevented a steeper drop. Lucas explains how IORB works, why money market funds use it as a rate anchor, and what happens if the Fed cuts IORB before the fed funds rate. Luna pushes back on whether the floor is really that rigid. By the end, you'll understand why every Treasury bill yield has a hidden support line drawn by the Fed, and why that matters for your bond ETF.

#BondMarket #Treasuries #FederalReserve #InterestOnReserves #IORB #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #ShortTermYields #MoneyMarketFunds #TBillAuctions #LiquidityManagement #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FixedIncome #CentralBanking #RateFloor

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