Confidence Hack #72: A butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and causes a tornado in Texas.

North American theoretical meteorologist Edward Lorenz found something strange while studying weather patterns. In 1961, Lorenz was running a numerical computer model to redo a weather prediction he had currently been working on. Lorenz left the room and walked down the hall to get a cup of coffee. He entered the initial condition 0.506 from the printout instead of the complete precision 0.506127 value as he was in a hurry. When he returned, the result was a completely different weather scenario. The computer had simulated months into the future. Due to a minimal numerical rounding in his equation,  the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. Lorenz’s ‘accidental’ study discovered that the smallest occurrences in one area can lead to a domino effect in another.

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