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The Conservatives came home from Birmingham in good spirits. A week on, the polls have moved, Labour has seen off Zack Polanski in Keir Starmer’s old seat, and Andy Burnham has said something about Russia and Brexit that he then spent Monday afternoon in the Commons trying to unsay.
Gavin Megaw, Patrick Kidd and Peter Franklin, three former Conservative Central Office colleagues from the Hague years, ask whether the public noticed the Tories’ good week, how Kemi Badenoch fared at PMQs against a Prime Minister who praised her, and whether the Budget in two weeks will tell us if Burnham is planning an early election.
Patrick and Peter fall out over whether Labour could take Britain back into the EU without a referendum. Nigel Farage announces a plan to close the asylum system for five years, with a very expensive press conference. And on the centenary of Winnie the Pooh, Patrick decides which of the Hundred Acre Wood the three hosts are.
Recommendations this week: the Winnie the Pooh books and Ashdown Forest, Nick Timothy on Michael Gove’s Quite Right podcast [https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/britain-must-come-down-like-a-ton-of-bricks/id1822769271?i=1000794559034], and Alice Thomson in the Times on Britons who coast [https://www.thetimes.com/article/dd524931-41e3-4863-9d02-f6244615431a?shareToken=e2d096fac2a81d1eae99d8a386590364].
The Conservatives have had a good 'no drama' week in Birmingham, and Gavin, Patrick and Peter want to know how much of it was real. Who the party is trying to win back, and in what order. Why the exhibition hall needed a 70-foot tapestry. What your supermarket says about how you vote. Which shadow cabinet speech ended in silence. Plus Kemi's hour on stage, her answer to Suella Braverman, Patrick's story about Jeffrey Archer and a phone call from Margaret Thatcher, Gavin's afternoon in Archer's penthouse, and the Tory performance of the week that didn't happen at the conference. Up or down? Listen to find out.
Patrick recommends Words and Music on BBC Radio 3 this Sunday, 11 October. The programme marks a hundred years since the first BBC broadcast of Choral Evensong, from Westminster Abbey on 7 October 1926, and takes the parish church as its theme, with readings from John Betjeman and Thomas Gray and an extract from P.G. Wodehouse's The Great Sermon Handicap. Patrick's wife produced it. He thought it goes out at seven o'clock, but he wasn't sure, so check the Radio 3 schedule before you print a time.
Peter recommends Jacob Rees-Mogg's interview with Tucker Carlson, recorded at Rees-Mogg's home and released on 2 October, in which Carlson questions whether Britain should have fought Hitler and Rees-Mogg puts him right on that and on the size of the Russian economy without raising his voice. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RShf_IUpLEA]
Gavin recommends Walt Disco, a six-piece from Glasgow, and their third album, which is self-titled and came out on 2 October on EMI North. Bowie, Roxy Music, Orange Juice and Franz Ferdinand are the reference points, and it came by way of the brilliant Bending Sounds record shop in Bangor, County Down.
Andy Burnham used his first conference as Prime Minister to put the state pension triple lock up for grabs and open the door to a new relationship with the EU. Patrick, Peter and Gavin, who all worked at Conservative Central Office together, ask whether it was the smartest speech from a Labour leader in years or a trap he's setting for himself. Then: what Kemi Badenoch needs to do with the opening he's left her, going into her own conference in Birmingham.
And three decades of conference disasters from the people who were there for some of them: a dead parrot on a tabloid front page, a shadow cabinet confessing to cannabis use one by one, standing ovations organised in advance, and the speech that fell apart live on stage behind Theresa May.
Recommendations: The Pope in France from Peter [https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2026-09/video-highlights-pope-leo-last-day-in-france.html], Tom McTague's Burnham profile from Gavin [https://www.newstatesman.com/cover-story/2026/09/andy-burnham-seizes-control] and Flying Pianos, the eccentric birth of British Aviation by Charles Spicer [https://oneworld-publications.com/work/flying-pianos/].
Three parties are all promising to cut your taxes and none of them can afford to. Patrick has a go at Andrew Griffith over a tweet involving an imaginary young woman in a million-pound flat in zone one. Peter finds the Liberal Democrats trying to out-flank Reform on tax cuts and struggling to explain how they'd pay for any of it. And Rishi Sunak reopens a fight about who gets to call themselves English, which Gavin didn't think needed reopening. Plus the week's polling, an MRP that has Robert Jenrick losing his own seat, and the usual verdict on whether the Tories are up or down.
Recommendations: Golden Boy at the Almeida [https://almeida.co.uk/whats-on/golden-boy/]. Chernobyl, on Sky [https://www.sky.com/watch/series/119a15a4-c006-4945-bce5-16fd7b9a284a] and Lord Graham Brady's Kingmaker [https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kingmaker-Secrets-Truth-about-Ministers/dp/1804188263].
Our first ever guest. David Davis has views on where Reform's mega donations came from, what Labour plans to do about it, and why the response may be a gift to Farage. He tells the story of a Friday phone call from David Cameron that shaped the 2010 coalition, delivers a verdict on Kemi Badenoch she may or may not thank him for, and explains why he's not expecting an early election.
This week's recommendations: David plugs his new podcast with Guto Harri, Politics Unleashed, launching mid-October, and the magazine he reads every month that's currently scaring him. Peter recommends his own ConservativeHome piece on the Prime Ministers we nearly had [https://conservativehome.com/2023/09/05/peter-franklin-nine-prime-ministers-we-nearly-had/], David among them, and how differently 2010 might have gone. And his piece for UnHerd about a Tory/Reform pact looking unlikely [https://unherd.com/newsroom/a-tory-reform-pact-is-further-away-than-ever/]. Patrick has finally caught up with Ludwig, and brings news of a parliamentary inquiry into Britain's Eurovision record. He encourages you to watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnoikRec67k And Gavin picks William Hague in the Times on party donations, from a man who took a few himself as leader of the opposition [https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/pay-politics-reform-ben-delo-donations-cs99qsjss].
Reform's conference week had everything: a pact with Marine Le Pen's party to stop the boats forever, a Channel 4 undercover investigation that cost Farage two of his most senior aides, and masked men blocking roads in Dover and Portsmouth. And underneath it all, a fact almost nobody believes. Boat numbers are falling.
Patrick, Peter and Gavin, three veterans of Conservative Central Office, ask what it all means for the Conservatives. Was the Bardella signing a stunt or a genuinely clever move? Is Farage running out of time, and why does his party's vote skew so much older than the AfD's? Is Zia Yusuf the successor, and would he be a bigger problem for the Tories than Farage himself?
After the balaclavas, can Kemi Badenoch reach angry voters without repelling everyone else? Plus Burnham's line at PMQs that may follow him for months, the weekly up or down verdict, and a recommendation each, from James Herriot to a rival podcast [https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/not-another-one/id1749531924] to a paper on AI [https://ai-2027.com] that Gavin can't stop thinking about.
Three former Conservative Central Office hands, Patrick Kidd, Peter Franklin and Gavin Megaw, on what the Tories are doing each week, and whether it's working. Every episode ends with a verdict: up or down.
This week: the day before Andy Burnham faced Parliament for the first time as Prime Minister, Kemi Badenoch carried out her deepest reshuffle yet. Andrew Griffith is in as shadow chancellor, Tom Tugendhat back at foreign affairs, Priti Patel out and James Cleverly off to run for London mayor. Accident or ambush? And now Burnham has to work out how to handle a Labour party that broke his predecessor, with a bond market already deciding what it thinks. Plus whether Reform have peaked, the Clacton by-election, and why Peter thinks Kemi should be a bit nicer.
This week's recommendations from our trio: Tom Tugendhat's Telegraph piece on Chinese electric cars [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2026/09/01/rescue-europe-car-industry-made-in-china-folly-factories/], Rachel Morley's Church Crawling, and Nevil Shute's Trustee from the Toolroom.
From the publisher's feed
Three former Tory insiders ask if the party's coming back or finished. Weekly verdict: up or down, no fence-sitting.