Democrats keep running against Donald Trump; Trump keeps running up the numbers they should actually fear—registrations. The party that chants “protect democracy” forgot the first rule of democratic politics: you can’t win the midterms if you can’t win new voters.

Over the last few cycles, Democrats built a brand around beating one man. Meanwhile, the right quietly built something less theatrical and more lethal: an advantage in the boring, relentless arithmetic of who’s signing up to vote. That’s not vibes or viral clips. That’s names on rolls. The ledger is moving, and it’s moving red.

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