The Continental Rift

Germany’s former spy chief is arrested on suspicion of treason, while ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder joins Putin in Moscow for his birthday. Can America and Europe still trust Berlin with their secrets? And as Marco Rubio tours Europe, why did the EU, Lithuania and Canada drop their support for a disinformation conference: who’s afraid of the truth?

An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week's continental rift.

• 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift
• 00:00:54 The Rifty backstory
• 00:02:44 Germany's former spy chief arrested
• 00:04:37 Schröder, Putin and Germany's spies
• 00:07:48 Three elections, three directions
• 00:08:19 Bosnia: Dodik thanks Trump and Putin
• 00:10:20 Latvia's pro-Europe parties triumph
• 00:11:58 Sánchez announces snap election in Spain
• 00:15:44 Rubio's selective European tour
• 00:17:33 The US Ambassador to Greece in the news again
• 00:19:29 Washington's message to Europe
• 00:22:16 EU, Lithuania and Canada withdraw from disinformation conference
• 00:26:40 Brussels eyes a Big Tech levy
• 00:29:32 Frog Watch
• 00:31:09 Black Sea attacks and Turkey
• 00:35:12 EU budget talks heating up
• 00:36:28 How rifty was this week?

MORE INFORMATION:

GERMAN SPY SCANDAL - August Hanning, ex-chief of Germany’s foreign intelligence service (BND), was arrested on 6 October and remanded in custody the next day on suspicion of treasonous espionage. His lawyer says he held confidential documents but denies passing information on to harm Germany or for payment. No foreign state has been named by prosecutors. Der Spiegel reported an Azerbaijani intelligence agent may have been the intended recipient of a report containing classified information; Azerbaijani state media called the links “fake” and “a smear campaign”. Estonian Defence Ministry official Herman Simm was convicted of spying for Russia in 2009.

SCHRÖDER - The Kremlin said Schröder spent Putin’s birthday with him at his home on 7 October. Schröder joined the supervisory board of Russian retailer Hyperglobus this month. He left Rosneft’s board in May 2022 and declined a Gazprom nomination that year.

BOSNIA - Milorad Dodik, ex-president of Republika Srpska, was banned from public office for 6 years in 2025 and was not on the ballot. He called for erasing the border between Republika Srpska and Serbia at a pre-election rally. The New York Times reports Trump advisers James Blair and Chris LaCivita were paid to advise Republika Srpska’s government on voting issues; Trump says they were outside consultants “who don’t work for me”. The FT reports Katie Wiles, daughter of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, is a partner at Continental Strategy, which holds a lobbying contract with Republika Srpska; the firm says she has not lobbied US officials on behalf of it.

US AMBASSADOR TO GREECE - The Wall Street Journal reported on 7 October that Ambassador Guilfoyle pressed a donor to pay a $100,000 Amex bill. She and her lawyer dispute the account.

#Disinfo2026 CONFERENCE - Lithuania, Canada and the EU’s diplomatic service withdrew sponsorship of the Vilnius conference after Washington objected to panels on the US as a disinformation threat, per a State Department cable seen by POLITICO. France kept its support. Lithuania says it withdrew because parts of the programme differed from official government policy. In September Lithuania’s president announced a new rotation of US troops; on 5 October Trump said he would “certainly look at” a permanent US base after Lithuania’s PM offered to pay for one.

FROG WATCH - Two merchant ships were struck by drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone on 6 October; one sank. Bulgaria has not attributed the attack and has ruled out invoking NATO Articles 4 and 5. The ships were Turkish-owned but flagged to Togo, Palau and St Kitts and Nevis. Defence entrepreneur Stefan Thumann, whose company Donaustahl supplies drones to Ukraine, revealed on the podcast Ronzheimer that he was informed of a Russian plot to assassinate him in 2025.

EU BUDGET - France’s government debt was 115.6% of GDP at end-2025 (Eurostat), below the 170.6% Greece hit in 2011, though far larger in euros. EU leaders aim to agree the 2028-34 budget by end-2026; it needs unanimous member-state approval and European Parliament consent.

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Producer Lucy Antonatos

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Athens is spooked: did the US Ambassador just boast about toppling governments(!)? And is America bringing in Russia from the diplomatic deep freeze? (Can Europe do anything about it?)

An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week's continental rift.

• 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift
• 00:00:59 The Rifty back story
• 00:02:32 Hello from Gdańsk
• 00:03:44 Will Trump ban diesel exports?
• 00:05:05 Trump's treatment of Canada
• 00:06:32 Red carpet for Xi Jinping
• 00:07:55 US Ambassador Guilfoyle, Greece and gas lobbying
• 00:11:23 Putin's invitation to G20 in Miami
• 00:13:14 Kyviv under fire and troubles for European companies in Russia
• 00:15:49 Military Schengen: can Europe mobilise its troops?
• 00:18:04 NATO meeting without the UK, France and the Baltics?
• 00:19:34 Europe's defence projects and the Joint Expeditionary Force
• 00:22:20 Will Britain rejoin the EU?
• 00:23:48 EU enlargement: try before you buy
• 00:26:47 Frogwatch: EU governments publicly naming Russia for hybrid attacks
• 00:31:36 Elections in Latvia and Twitter wars

More information

DIESEL — On 2 October, G7 leaders agreed a coordinated IEA release of 100m barrels of diesel and crude oil over four months, with a “substantial” diesel release in the first 20 days. Washington had asked Europe for at least 100m barrels and threatened to ban US diesel exports otherwise (FT). The G7 statement, backed by the US, reaffirms a commitment to “refrain from export restrictions on energy and energy products between G7 countries”. The US supplied about half of EU diesel imports in August (IEA).

US, CANADA & CHINA — The US ban in force since 29 September covers nearly $1bn of Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles. Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews, a courtesy US presidents rarely extend; he also greeted Putin on the tarmac in Alaska in August 2025.

GREECE & US AMBASSADOR — The WSJ reported on 25 September that, at a March dinner in Athens, US Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle said of Romania’s collapsing government: “We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here”, according to an attendee. Her lawyer disputes the account; the Greek government says there was no threat. There is no independent evidence the US played a role in the collapse of Romania’s government in May. Aktor, a Greek construction group new to gas, has a joint venture with state-backed DEPA supplying American LNG across the region. The WSJ reports Guilfoyle flew to Bulgaria on a jet provided by Aktor’s CEO and travelled to Tirana without embassy staff.

RUSSIA & G20 — Trump has reportedly approved an early-stage plan to ease some Russia sanctions in exchange for political-prisoner releases (The Atlantic, 29 September). The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023; the US is not an ICC member.

UKRAINE — UN monitors say civilian casualties have risen every month in 2026, with July the deadliest since March 2022. On 1 October a Russian drone hit a Kyiv school; 104 students and 60 teachers survived in its shelter.

EUROPEAN DEFENCE — In Operation Dragoon Ride (2015) US Strykers drove 1,800km from Estonia to Germany in 13 days, testing how freely NATO forces can cross Europe’s borders. The Pentagon’s “Bergen Group” meets in Poland in October on NATO’s future; the UK, France and the Baltic states were not invited. The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force has 10 members; Canada applied to join on 16 September. On 1 October EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said a missile or bombing attack on a European arms factory “would be Article 5”, after Moscow called such factories “potential military targets”.

BRITAIN & EU — YouGov’s late-September tracker found 59% of Britons support rejoining the EU, with 32% opposed.

FROG WATCH — Estonia joins a growing list of governments publicly blaming Russia: Poland tied the November 2025 Warsaw–Lublin rail sabotage to people working for Russian services; Germany blamed Russia for August’s foiled drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport, and the GRU for a failed incendiary attack on a Munich defence company in September. Investigators believe the Leipzig explosives entered Germany via Bulgaria and Serbia, while the GRU-linked suspect travelled via Turkey (Axel Springer reporting); Russia denies involvement. On 1 October Russia briefly detained the Estonia-bound cargo ship Västerbotten in the Gulf of Finland without explanation (ERR).

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Producer Lucy Antonatos

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Greenland, Belarus potash and Russian oligarchs: everything has a price this week. What did Washington get from a Greenland defence deal with no end date? And can EU sanctions be bargained with, now they’ve taken Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman off the list?

• 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift
• 00:00:51 The Rifty Backstory
• 00:02:39 German State Elections: the Left, the AfD and Merz
• 00:05:46 EU drops two Russian oligarchs from sanctions list
• 00:07:17 Hostage diplomacy: from Griner to Azerbaijan
• 00:10:02 Greenland: the 1951 deal v 2026
• 00:12:40 Trump's price list: Belarus potash
• 00:14:08 Driving the Suwałki Gap
• 00:15:35 US troops in the Baltics and Macron's warning
• 00:16:51 The ICC and Europe's pushback
• 00:18:22 Diesel, refineries and the Strait of Hormuz
• 00:19:26 Frog Watch: drones and southern Europe
• 00:22:41 Frog Watch: a Russian helicopter over Poland
• 00:25:00 Frog Watch: Migrants, border checks and arson in Tallinn
• 00:27:05 Belgium's leaked memo and Trump's taste for royalty

More information

GERMAN STATE ELECTIONS (20 Sept) - In Berlin, Die Linke topped the poll for the first time and is seeking a coalition with the Greens and the SPD. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD won 38.2% to the SPD's 35.5%, but no other party will govern with it. Chancellor Merz's CDU took 4.9%, failing to win seats in a state parliament for the first time since 1949. SPD minister-president Manuela Schwesig is seeking a coalition with the Left and the Greens. She was a leading supporter of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and her government set up a Nord Stream-funded foundation in 2021 to help complete it; after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine she called backing it a mistake.

EU SANCTIONS & HOSTAGE DIPLOMACY - Le Monde, Euronews and the FT report that France sought Alisher Usmanov's delisting to free two French citizens (Martin Ryan & Anass Derraz) held in Azerbaijan; Ryan was officially pardoned by Azerbaijani President Aliyev on 23 September, Derraz remains in prison in Baku. Paris cites national security and has not confirmed a link. EU sanctions need unanimity, so any one member state can block renewal. The 22 September deadline covered individual sanctions only; the EU's economic sanctions on Russia were extended separately in June.

Viktor Bout, swapped for Brittney Griner in December 2022, was an arms dealer convicted in the US of conspiring to arm Colombia's FARC rebels. Vadim Krasikov, who carried out the 2019 Tiergarten killing in Berlin, was an FSB officer; he was freed in the August 2024 exchange for Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva.

GREENLAND - US-Denmark-Greenland Security Agreement was signed on 22 September and enters into force once approved by the Danish and Greenlandic parliaments. No approval by US Congress is required. The text reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark. The Svalbard Treaty (originally Spitsbergen Treaty) was signed in 1920; Estonia became a party in 1930.

DIESEL - President Trump urged Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, citing diesel prices; Rubio said Ukrainian strikes had hit American-linked shipping, probably unintentionally. Russia has banned most diesel exports since July after Ukrainian drone strikes cut refinery output. The International Energy Agency says the global diesel shortage reflects both lost Russian exports and Middle East disruption, including through the Strait of Hormuz.

FROG WATCH, POLAND - On concrete blocks found on railway line at Jedlanka in eastern Poland on 22 September, Polish prosecutors have ruled out sabotage and are treating the incident as vandalism. Poland’s military says Russian Mi-8 helicopter that crossed from Kaliningrad on 23 September entered about 300m into Polish airspace and stayed for 42 seconds.

FROG WATCH, ESTONIA - 3 Latvian citizens have been remanded in Estonia as suspect in the 15 August arson of Tallinn building used by Milrem Robotics. They have not been convicted and prosecutors say sabotage is one line of inquiry.

FROG WATCH - MEDITERRANEAN - Reported CIA warning of possible Russian plan to launch drones from merchant ships in Mediterranean comes from Spanish newspaper El Mundo (23 Sept), citing a Lithuanian defence source. The report has not been independently confirmed and Italy says it has received no such warning.

BELGIUM’S LEAKED MEMO - The leaked Belgian foreign ministry paper, dated October 2025 and reported by the FT (24 Sept), says the US is no longer the ally it was and notes Trump's regard for royalty; King Philippe and Queen Mathilde have since visited the US. On 20 September Trump said his proposed Triumphal Arch would house drones, snipers and sniper ammunition; it has not been built.

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Producer Lucy Antonatos

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Is von der Leyen’s proposed EU Security Council an illusion or a realistic response to Russian sabotage? And will her offer of "associate membership" to Canada trigger an all-out trade war with Donald Trump?

A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift.

• 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift
• 00:01:21 The Rifty Backstory
• 00:03:06 Sweden Election Results and Kingmakers
• 00:05:34 Nail-biter Elections in Germany and… Russia
• 00:06:46 SOTEU and Security Council Aspirations
• 00:09:01 NATO Wants No Discussion of Hybrid Threats
• 00:10:31 Lindsey Graham Act and Trump’s Tariff Powers
• 00:12:26 EU Commits to Canada with Offer of Associate Membership
• 00:17:32 AI Safety: Big Tech asks, EU listens
• 00:19:44 Frog Watch: Russian Wargaming
• 00:21:58 France Pushes for Oligarch’s Russia Sanctions Release
• 00:23:26 US Geopolitics: “It’s complicated”
• 00:25:29 EU Security Council vs. Kallas proposal

More information

SWEDEN ELECTIONS - the final count reported only on 17 September (after recording): 176 seats for centre-left vs 173 for the ruling right-wing bloc. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson resigned though his government remains in place while the speaker of the Riksdag conducts talks on forming a new one. The party positioned as kingmaker is the Centre Party, a liberal party led by Thand Ringqvist took 7.1%. The Liberals are part of Kristersson’s outgoing bloc.

EU SANCTIONS LIST - France and Slovakia are blocking the six-monthly renewal of the EU’s existing sanctions list of around 3,000 Russian individuals and entities over the listing of billionaire Alisher Usmanov. On 14 September EU ambassadors extended the list for one week. France says it has “a specific national security issue”; the Financial Times and Euronews report the request is connected to French nationals detained in Azerbaijan.

CANADA/EU – Addressing the European Parliament on 17 September, Prime Minister Carney welcomed von der Leyen’s proposal of EU partnership.  He ruled out full EU membership and said any agreement would be put to a vote in Canada’s Parliament. Canada exports no beef to the EU under CETA because its producers use growth hormones banned in the EU. The day before Carney’s statement, President Trump called the proposal “laughable” and threatened “very serious tariffs” on Europe if he judged it “a hostile act”. 

FROG WATCH, THE NETHERLANDS - On 15 September pipes and cables were placed on railway tracks at more than 35 locations; infrastructure manager ProRail classified it as sabotage, and police, prosecutors and the intelligence service AIVD are investigating. No suspect or motive has been identified. Fires beside Dutch motorways the same day were a farmers’ protest against the budget.

FROG WATCH, GERMANY – the Bundeswehr estimates that in event of a conflict on NATO’s eastern flank 300-1,000 wounded a day could be evacuated to Germany; military and civilian hospitals are preparing.

RUSSIA – a CNN investigation published on 15 September reported that 14 Russian reconnaissance satellites passed over Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia in the two days before Iran’s strike on the base on 27 March and that US officials believe the intelligence was shared with Teheran.  Russia denies it. 

US DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE – On 15 September DOJ charged five men – two Russian nationals and three Cuban and Venezuelan nationals living in Russia – with working for Russian intelligence to plan surveillance, sabotage and targeted killings including a plot to murder a Russian dissident in the US.  All five remain at large.

THE KENNEDY CENTRE – Its board, appointed by President Trump, voted on 15 September to close the venue.  The Administration has said in court it could be demolished if its renovation plan is blocked..   

LINDSEY O. GRAHAM SANCTIONING RUSSIA AND IRAN ACT 2026 - passed by US House on 16 September after clearing the Senate in August.  White House has said the President plans to sign it.  It will give the President discretion to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas and on countries judged to help Russia evade sanctions, a clause critics in Congress say reaches far beyond Russia.

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband
• Producer Lucy Antonatos

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

When Germany’s far-right wins, Trump posts "MGGA" and leaks reveal US pressuring NATO allies to dismantle the International Criminal Court, should Europe confront, or accommodate its antagonists?

A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift.

• 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift
• 00:01:06 The Rifty Back Story
• 00:03:02 Far Right AfD Wins
• 00:13:21 Sweden Votes!
• 00:17:40 Frog Watch (drones, hybrid war & Putin)
• 00:23:08 Trump's Annexation Map
• 00:26:49 Update: Kaja Kallas
• 00:30:13 EU Enlargment hits the brakes
• 00:35:34 US Pressues NATO allies to close ICC

More Information

AfD election victory - The federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classified the AfD as 'confirmed right-wing extremist' in May 2025; in February 2026 the Cologne administrative court suspended that classification pending the main proceedings. The AfD first came top in a state election in Thuringia on 1 September 2024 (32.8%). Saxony-Anhalt is its highest state result and the first in which it is within reach of the premiership. Chancellor Merz said of the result that there was 'particularly great joy' 2,500 km to the east. No statement from President Putin.

AfD policy positions - the party's federal programme opposes 'ideologically motivated inclusion' and wants special schools for children with special educational needs; it rejects adoption rights for same-sex couples; 'remigration' is described by the party as the removal of illegal migrants and criminals, and by Chancellor Merz as 'ethnic cleansing by skin colour and origin'; the Saxony-Anhalt intelligence service says the state branch's programme is 'permeated by the racist ideology of ethnopluralism'. Alice Weidel is co-0chair of the AfD. her family home is in Einsiedeln, Switzerland; her official residence is in Überlingen, Germany, and she works in Berlin. Her female partner was born in Sri Lanka and adopted by a Swiss family. The couple's two sons were born to Weidel’s partner and adopted by Weidel.

Saxony-Anhalt - Saxony-Anhalt had 192,155 foreign nationals at the end of 2025 about 9% of residents, roughly half the national share and among the lowest of any state; the lowest share is in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The aiport drones were found at Leipzig/Halle Airport, at Schkeuditz in Saxony, a few kilometres from the Saxony-Anhalt.

Swedish-Estonian Nobel laureates - Svante Pääbo, Nobel laureate in medicine in 2022, was born in Stockholm to the Estonian refugee chemist Karin Pääbo and the Swedish Nobel laureate Sune Bergström. The most recent laureate based in Sweden is Anne L'Huillier of Lund University (physics, 2023), born in France.

Hungary - Hungary expelled ten Russian diplomats on Tuesday 8 September. Foreign Minister Anita Orbán, who announced it, is no relation to former prime minister Viktor Orbán. 

Kushner & Witkoff - The US envoys travelled to Kyiv by train from Poland on 6 September. President Zelensky said Russia had struck Kyiv's airports the night before to prevent them landing. At the joint press conference with President Zelensky in Kyiv on 6 September, Jared Kushner said: 'From President Putin's perspective, I think he has certain objectives that he expresses he wants to achieve, but obviously there are different aspirations that he has for his country that can also be achieved once this is concluded.'

EU Enlargement - Marta Kos, on 8 September: 'We should not risk our future members building dependencies on others that run counter to our long-term interest.' She named Russia as an adversary in the enlargement process, spoke of 'pressure… from the MAGA ideologists', and described China's approach as economic rather than disinformation-led. the Polish government supports Ukraine accession with conditions (opposition comes from President Nawrocki and from a majority of Polish voters). President Macron has said accession would take 'decades'. The Common Agricultural Policy, of which France and Poland are the largest beneficiaries, is about a third of the EU’s 2021-27 budget, and about a quarter of actual EU spending in 2023.

ICC - POLITICO reported on 10 September that at a closed meeting of NATO ambassadors in mid-July the US ambassador, Matthew Whitaker, asked allies to withdraw from the Rome Statute and help 'systematically dismantle' the International Criminal Court, ending with 'We will be watching closely who stands with America.' US strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific are continuing: the most recent was on 9 September; at least 230 people have been killed in more than 70 strikes since September 2025.

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Why would Washington spend $4 million on Europe's right-wing media while inviting Russia's finance minister back to the G20? And why Is Germany allowing US company to build a European-sourced cruise missile near Leipzig?

A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift.

• 00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift
• 00:01:16 Continental Rift backstory
• 00:02:48 Iceland EU Referendum Result
• 00:06:57 Germans blame Russia for Attacks
• 00:12:59 US co. build European cruise missle for Ukraine
• 00:15:15 Sweden Buys 4x Frigates
• 00:17:41 Far-Right AfD lead German State election
• 00:21:19 US spends $$ on European right-wing media
• 00:26:23 EU Chief Diplomat position threatened
• 00:31:53 Russian Finance Minister snubbed at G20 Meeting

More Information

Leipzig suspects. German investigators have identified two suspects in the 4 August Leipzig drone attack through DNA and mobile-phone data, with reports of up to four people under investigation. As of recording, no arrests had been announced. One suspect held an Italian tourist visa; Italian security sources say he never travelled through Italy. The other, a Russian-born man with a Latvian passport, flew into Berlin in late July. According to European Parliament VP Picierno, EU states issued more than 477,000 tourist visas to Russian citizens in 2025 with Italy, France and Spain the largest issuers.

Russia's response. On 3 September, Foreign Minister Lavrov said Goethe-Institut centres in Moscow, St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg would be closed, adding that any other response would show a lack of "self-respect" on Russia's part. Russia's ambassador to Germany says the Bonn consulate closes on 18 September and the Russian House in Berlin by June 2027.

The Leipzig missile factory. The US company Covenant plans to build cruise missiles with a range of more than 1,500 km near Leipzig from 2027, with most components sourced in Germany and Europe.

Starlink. Ukraine asked the White House in late July to intervene with SpaceX over the use of Starlink for strikes inside Russia. The Financial Times reported in August that the request was not taken up by the administration.

Sweden's frigates. Sweden's contract with France's Naval Group for four FDI air-defence frigates is worth SEK 47 billion (about €4.3 billion), with first delivery due in 2030.

US grants for European media. Reuters reported on 31 August that the State Department plans $4 million for right-wing media in Europe within a package of at least $25 million for civil-society groups working on conservative causes. The grants are administered by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, which says it does not fund political parties. Recipients have not been identified. Congressional review runs to the end of September.

Trump and Spain. President Trump has threatened tariffs on Spain over its refusal to meet NATO's 5% spending target (October 2025) and threatened 100% tariffs on any country imposing a digital services tax (June 2026).

Kaja Kallas. Her full title is High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission. The Franco-German paper reported by Politico (31 August) would make her an executive vice-president coordinating the Commission's external departments, move much of the EEAS's roughly 5,000 staff into the Commission, and keep security and defence staff under her. At the Wicklow meeting, ministers broadly supported the existing institutional setup but argued it must work better in practice.

Timmermans. In a 2023 Dutch television interview, Frans Timmermans said that Kaja Kallas being prime minister of a country bordering Russia was a potential issue for the NATO secretary-general role. Norway, home of then secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, shares a 198 km border with Russia.

Estonia. Ülle Madise was elected President of Estonia by parliament on 2 September 2026 and takes office on 12 October.

Why does one of the world’s safest countries feel vulnerable under American protection? And why does Canada — with the world's longest undefended border — seem to agree, just as the CIA drops in on Moscow?

A European President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift.

• 00:00:00 Background
• 00:01:30 Introduction
• 00:02:45 Siim Kallas
• 00:03:43 Iceland EU vote
• 00:11:58 Canada & Europe
• 00:19:00 Boiling Frog Watch
• 00:23:14 UK steps up
• 00:25:00 CIA Director in Moscow
• 00:28:28 The Rhine Group

More Information

Canada & EU - The EU–Canada trade agreement (CETA) has been provisionally applied since 2017; nearly a decade on, ten EU member states have yet to complete ratification. Canada joined the EU's €150bn SAFE defence-loan scheme in February 2026, the first non-European country to do so. A SAFE loan requires that at least 65% of the value of procured equipment comes from the EU, Ukraine or associated countries. Mark Carney will attend the EU's State of the Union address on 16 September and address the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 17 September

Frog Watch - Germany (Leipzig/Halle): a drone with military-grade explosives found near a Ukrainian An-124 on 4 August, a DHL aircraft damaged the same night, and a 3rd drone recovered on 14 August (reported 25 August); ABC News reports US intelligence considers the drone's design typical of Russia's GRU. Der Spiegel reported that a man detained in Romania over a buried handgun cache is suspected of belonging to a Russian-controlled network. Romania: jets destroyed a suspected Russian naval drone near the Neptun Deep gas field on 20 August. Slovakia: police foiled a planned arson attack on the Skyeton reconnaissance-drone plant near Prešov, seizing a napalm-like petrol-polystyrene mixture. Italy: the 13 August explosion at the KNDS Ammo Italy plant at Colleferro followed a fire and remains under investigation, with no attribution made.

Britain - At the time of recording the UK was preparing (not yet running) a public information campaign advising households to stock emergency supplies. In UK political theatre, the "special relationship" (a UK characterisation of its relationship with the US) is measured in two rituals: who the new prime minister's first call is with and where the PM first travels. Often the first is to the US while the second has recently been to Brussels. Burnham kept the tradition on the phone (Washington), broke it on the plane (Kyiv). Andy Burnham announced the UK will allow MBDA to release classified design information on the British-made components of the Storm Shadow/SCALP missile so Ukraine can build it domestically; France cleared its components in July.

CIA Director in Moscow - Why was he there? Was it to warn Putin over the Baltics (WSJ, Politico), to push for a Ukraine deal (NYT), or fear that the Iran war (and Russia’s aid to Iran) has left the US too stretched to respond (Washington Post)? The theories are flying.

The Rhine Group - more can be found here: https://www.rhinegroup.eu/

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Why can Washington ‘switch off’ a Japanese judge? And why does that same switch terrify 74% of Europe's business leaders?

A European President & American comedian on how this week’s events underscores the difficult dependency Europe has on the US.

More Information

*The ICC* The March 2023 ICC arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin was issued by a three-judge chamber on which Tomoko Akane sat. She was elected the court’s President a year later. Russia answered the warrant with a criminal case and a wanted-list entry; as of this week she is under US sanctions too.

*Reliance on US* ECB President Christine Lagarde made her call to cut Europe’s reliance on Visa, Mastercard and PayPal in April 2025, weeks after the first US sanctions order against the ICC; the digital euro is the ECB’s answer. Reuters reported in 2025 that Starlink coverage was cut over part of Kherson Oblast during Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2022; Elon Musk denies ever switching off Starlink terminals. Europe’s alternative, the IRIS² satellite constellation, was agreed by the EU in 2022, with contracts signed in late 2024.

*Gorbachev* He became Soviet General Secretary in March 1985. The coup found him under house arrest at Foros, his holiday dacha on the southern coast of Crimea, then part of Soviet Ukraine.

*Yeltsin* Russia’s Soviet-era parliament made Yeltsin its chairman in 1990 and in June 1991 he won Russia’s first direct presidential election with 57% of the vote. That popular mandate is a large part of why the Soviet tanks blinked in August.

*West Germany’s Defence Budget* On NATO’s figures, West Germany spent roughly 3–3.5% of GDP on defence through the 1980s (Britain 4–5%, the US around 6%). By 2014 reunified Germany was near 1.2%

*Hybrid War Attacks* Neither factory explosion we mentioned is currently attributed (Bulgaria’s interior minister reported no evidence of foreign interference in the 10 August fire at the EMCO plant). Since we recorded: a Romanian F-16 destroyed an explosive-laden sea drone a few hundred metres from the Neptun Deep gas project. President Nicușor Dan blamed Russia, Kyiv confirmed the drone wasn’t Ukrainian, and Commission President von der Leyen called it what this episode calls it: "This is hybrid warfare." Overnight into Friday a stray drone crashed and burned out in Romania’s Tulcea County, and Ukraine reported Russian strikes hitting a border crossing with Moldova.

• 00:00:00 Background
• 00:01:30 In today's show
• 00:03:25 Memories of putsch
• 00:05:24 US Sanctions ICC Prez
• 00:10:53 Tech Cold Turkey
• 00:13:44 Weapons dependency
• 00:17:24 US's Allies-questionaire
• 00:20:15 USS Abraham Lincoln
• 00:22:37 The USSR Putsch
• 00:26:26 The Peace Dividend
• 00:29:31 Russian Spies
• 00:31:25 Hybrid War latest
• 00:33:53 Outro

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

If Russia flies an explosive drone into a cargo plane in Germany does Article 5 make a sound? And what do you call it when America sells (lots of) euros and only tells Europe afterwards?

A European President & American Comedian on Europe, the US and what comes next.

Additional Notes

Ceuta - several thousand migrants remain, including about 1,300 unaccompanied minors; death toll is at least 82 per city authorities.

Euros, Yen & Dollars - the ECB reaction comes from senior ECB officials speaking anonymously to the Financial Times; the ECB declined official comment. The Trump-administration line “we respect the confidentiality of private discussions with our international counterparts, unlike the ECB” also came from an unnamed senior official, also via the FT

Least Digitally Advanced - The European Commission's ‘digital index’ puts Germany near the bottom for digital public services (and mid-table overall). Romania and Bulgaria rank last overall.

Drone with a “criminal record” - German media (Bild, Die Zeit) report a DNA trace on the latest Leipzig drone matching evidence from the July 2024 arson at the same airport's DHL hub (see below).

Ukraine’s Patriots - Trump promised Ukraine a licence to produce Patriot interceptors at the NATO summit on 8 July ("we're going to give a license to you to make Patriots"), reportedly confirmed it at the White House on 28 July and withdrew it at Camp David on 31 July: "we have not agreed to that." The same day the promise was withdrawn, Vice President Vance called Zelenskyy asking Ukraine to stop striking tankers at Novorossiysk. Kyiv still hopes for the licence and several hundred interceptors before winter.

Polish Railway - November 2025, Warsaw–Lublin line: an explosive charge destroyed a section of track, a passenger train ran over the damaged stretch without derailing. Poland charged two Ukrainian men it says acted for Russian intelligence; PM Tusk called it an unprecedented act of sabotage.

DHL Devices - The devices were incendiary parcels mailed from Vilnius into the air-cargo network in July 2024. The one at DHL's Leipzig hub actually ignited on the ground (because its flight was delayed); others burned in warehouses near Vilnius and in Birmingham. Five men are on trial in Lithuania; Western officials assessed it as a possible test run for devices on aircraft bound for North America.

Mystery Explosions - The 10 August explosions at the EMCO plant in Bulgaria are officially unexplained; authorities' preliminary assessment is an accident. The grounds for suspicion are real: the plant's owner, Emilian Gebrev, survived a GRU poisoning in 2015, and the same GRU unit is blamed for the 2014 Vrbětice explosions in Czechia at an ammunition depot (not a factory) which killed two people.

Shadow Fleet Soldiers - When French commandos boarded the tanker Boracay they found two employees of a Russian private military company, contractors rather than uniformed soldiers.

Putin’s Threat - Speaking aboard the missile cruiser Varyag on 12 August, Putin called European seizures of shadow-fleet tankers “piracy and banditry” and threatened to seize European vessels “wherever we ourselves deem necessary — anywhere”.

9/11 and Article 5 - NATO invoked Article 5 on 12 September 2001, conditionally, confirming it on 2 October once the US briefed allies on the evidence; an intelligence judgement, not a courtroom standard.

Greenland Drilling - The $60 million is Greenland Energy's announced budget for exploratory drilling (the FT described “$60mn worth of equipment” being moved). What actually came ashore without permission on 29–30 July was a barge carrying an excavator and roughly 15 shipping containers (value unstated).

Ukraine’s EU Accession - Poland and France have pushed back on the pace of accession, not (yet) Ukraine’s accession itself.

Montana vs California - Montana's population is about 1.1 million and California's about 39 million.

The German Presidents - Are elected by the Bundesversammlung (Federal Convention): all Bundestag members plus an equal number of delegates chosen by the 16 state parliaments (c. 1,470 people convened solely for that vote) not the Bundestag alone.

• 00:00:00 Background
• 00:01:30 This week...
• 00:03:15 Ceuta update
• 00:06:32 US sells Euros
• 00:08:53 Vances stops Zelensky
• 00:11:33 Russian drone in Germany
• 00:15:40 Previous hybrid attacks
• 00:22:15 US in Greenland
• 00:25:29 How EU works
• 00:35:48 Hungary's new President
• 00:38:55 Credits

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Who are Europe’s best spies? And did any of them predict last weekend’s crisis in Ceuta?

A European President and an American comedian disentangle the migration mess, European pile-on and American meddling that contributed to the Crisis in Ceuta.

Show Notes

Spies 1 - this was work done by the French Magazine L’Express and our discussion reflected that article. The original (pay-walled, English version) is here: https://www.lexpress.eu/intelligence/mi6-dgse-ukraine-lexpress-reveals-an-unprecedented-ranking-of-europes-best-spies-08-02-2026-WUF45U7QQZGKZJ3NJJKEVJCTKI/

Spies 2 - if you want to download the Annual Report by the Estonian Foreiugn Intelligence Agency referenced by Toomas, you can find it here: https://valisluureamet.ee/en.html

Spanish Supreme Court Ruling - another factor we did not have time to get into is that on 29 June, Spain's Supreme Court ruled that the fast-track “hot return” procedure — handing people straight back across the border with no formal process — can only be used on those crossing Ceuta and Melilla's physical land barriers, like the fences. It was a narrow, technical ruling. The Spanish government says trafficking networks then misrepresented it — including in viral TikTok videos — as “anyone arriving by sea can't be deported.” The ruling did not say that.

Ceuta’s history - Portugal captured Ceuta in 1415, 77 years before Columbus sailed. It passed to the Spanish crown in 1580 and was formally ceded by Portugal in 1668 . Morocco, which claims both cities, became an independent state in its modern form in 1956; the UN does not list Ceuta or Melilla as territories to be decolonised.

French politics - Jean-Luc Mélenchon (who attacked the French hard-right leader Marine le Pen) is the founder of La France Insoumise — a hard left party (with no leader), but not the French Communist Party, which is a separate party. LFI has denied it is pro-Putin (it’s critics disagree).

Italy’s migrant regularisation - Italy's last big amnesty for irregular migrants (around 207,000 applications) came in 2020, under a previous government. What Meloni's government has done is open the legal front door very wide — work-entry quotas of roughly 450,000 for 2023–25 and around 500,000 more for 2026–28 — while keeping regularisation channels available.

European regularisation - The REGINE study (ICMPD, 2009) looked at regularisation programmes 1996 and 2008 — not to the present day, as we said — and found that 17 EU member states ran 43 regularisation programmes, with 4.7 million applicants and at least 3.2 million people regularised. Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Belgium and Portugal ran the largest.

Morocco’s Trump Highway - This is country's flagship motorway project. Most of it runs through Western Sahara, the disputed territory whose Moroccan sovereignty Trump recognised in 2020 — which is the entire point of the King’s gesture. The naming was announced days after Morocco's Throne Day, and days before the Ceuta surge.

US House Bill - The $40 million for Morocco is real, appropriated foreign aid in a State Department funding bill the House passed 217–209 on 15 July. The language describing Ceuta and Melilla as “located in Moroccan territory” sits in the accompanying committee report — a non-binding document the House did not vote on. It transfers nothing and legally recognises nothing. What it does show is an arm of the US Congress putting Morocco's claim to Spanish territory on paper, two weeks before the migrant surge.

Nathalie Tocci - more on her work can be found here: https://www.iai.it/en/institute/experts/nathalie-tocci

• 00:00:00 Show Background
• 00:01:30 Introduction
• 00:03:15 Spie Agencies ranked
• 00:06:47 Ceuta - pronunciation
• 00:07:43 Ceuta - history & Schengen
• 00:11:46 The pile-on
• 00:14:20 The Letter
• 00:16:41 Migration weaponised
• 00:19:16 Germany & AfD
• 00:21:29 French reaction
• 00:24:41 Shuffle right
• 00:26:28 Conspiracy theories
• 00:31:14 Eruopean past form
• 00:33:02 EU's Trumpian Wall?
• 00:35:35 Credits

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved