Who are Europe’s best spies? And did any of them predict last weekend’s crisis in Ceuta?

A European President and an American comedian disentangle the migration mess, European pile-on and American meddling that contributed to the Crisis in Ceuta.

Show Notes

Spies 1 - this was work done by the French Magazine L’Express and our discussion reflected that article. The original (pay-walled, English version) is here: https://www.lexpress.eu/intelligence/mi6-dgse-ukraine-lexpress-reveals-an-unprecedented-ranking-of-europes-best-spies-08-02-2026-WUF45U7QQZGKZJ3NJJKEVJCTKI/

Spies 2 - if you want to download the Annual Report by the Estonian Foreiugn Intelligence Agency referenced by Toomas, you can find it here: https://valisluureamet.ee/en.html

Spanish Supreme Court Ruling - another factor we did not have time to get into is that on 29 June, Spain's Supreme Court ruled that the fast-track “hot return” procedure — handing people straight back across the border with no formal process — can only be used on those crossing Ceuta and Melilla's physical land barriers, like the fences. It was a narrow, technical ruling. The Spanish government says trafficking networks then misrepresented it — including in viral TikTok videos — as “anyone arriving by sea can't be deported.” The ruling did not say that.

Ceuta’s history - Portugal captured Ceuta in 1415, 77 years before Columbus sailed. It passed to the Spanish crown in 1580 and was formally ceded by Portugal in 1668 . Morocco, which claims both cities, became an independent state in its modern form in 1956; the UN does not list Ceuta or Melilla as territories to be decolonised.

French politics - Jean-Luc Mélenchon (who attacked the French hard-right leader Marine le Pen) is the founder of La France Insoumise — a hard left party (with no leader), but not the French Communist Party, which is a separate party. LFI has denied it is pro-Putin (it’s critics disagree).

Italy’s migrant regularisation - Italy's last big amnesty for irregular migrants (around 207,000 applications) came in 2020, under a previous government. What Meloni's government has done is open the legal front door very wide — work-entry quotas of roughly 450,000 for 2023–25 and around 500,000 more for 2026–28 — while keeping regularisation channels available.

European regularisation - The REGINE study (ICMPD, 2009) looked at regularisation programmes 1996 and 2008 — not to the present day, as we said — and found that 17 EU member states ran 43 regularisation programmes, with 4.7 million applicants and at least 3.2 million people regularised. Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Belgium and Portugal ran the largest.

Morocco’s Trump Highway - This is country's flagship motorway project. Most of it runs through Western Sahara, the disputed territory whose Moroccan sovereignty Trump recognised in 2020 — which is the entire point of the King’s gesture. The naming was announced days after Morocco's Throne Day, and days before the Ceuta surge.

US House Bill - The $40 million for Morocco is real, appropriated foreign aid in a State Department funding bill the House passed 217–209 on 15 July. The language describing Ceuta and Melilla as “located in Moroccan territory” sits in the accompanying committee report — a non-binding document the House did not vote on. It transfers nothing and legally recognises nothing. What it does show is an arm of the US Congress putting Morocco's claim to Spanish territory on paper, two weeks before the migrant surge.

Nathalie Tocci - more on her work can be found here: https://www.iai.it/en/institute/experts/nathalie-tocci

• 00:00:00 Show Background
• 00:01:30 Introduction
• 00:03:15 Spie Agencies ranked
• 00:06:47 Ceuta - pronunciation
• 00:07:43 Ceuta - history & Schengen
• 00:11:46 The pile-on
• 00:14:20 The Letter
• 00:16:41 Migration weaponised
• 00:19:16 Germany & AfD
• 00:21:29 French reaction
• 00:24:41 Shuffle right
• 00:26:28 Conspiracy theories
• 00:31:14 Eruopean past form
• 00:33:02 EU's Trumpian Wall?
• 00:35:35 Credits

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Can America switch Europe off? Why does the Kremlin dread August? And who walked out on whom at the UN?

A European President & US comedian make sense of the continental rift.

More Information

Europe is the fastest-warming continent, heating at roughly twice the global average since the 1980s (WMO / Copernicus). The Arctic warms faster still, and the heaviest human impacts fall elsewhere.

#AmericaAlone. This X post and hashtag came from the official X account of France’s Permanent Mission to the UN in Geneva (25 July). The mission is headed by France’s ambassador; the post was institutional, not personal.

Elbridge Colby is the Under Secretary of War for Policy — the Pentagon’s top policy official (formerly titled Under Secretary of Defense for Policy). The review he announced is officially the Europe Posture Review.

The UK has a new Prime Minister because under the UK’s parliamentary system it is the winning political party won power, not an individual. Whomever is the leader of the ruling party becomes (by royal ascent) the King’s Prime Minister. Kier Starmer lost his party’s leadership. Andy Burnham won an election to become a Member of Parliament and then gained (unopposed) his party’s leadership and therefore becomes the UK’s 6th Prime Minister in 10 years.

The European Commission fined Google €890 million on 23 July under the Digital Markets Act for self-preferencing in search and app-store services. Trump announced a Section 301 tariff investigation the next day. For more, check out our previous episode Fines & Frugals

On 12 June 2026, 3 days after it was launched, the US government imposed export controls on Anthropic’s new Claude Fable model on national-security grounds; unable to verify nationality in real time, Anthropic suspended access for everyone. 30th June, the Commerce Department lifted its restrictions and global access resumed on 1 July.

A handful of island states exceed Europe on the absolute measure of electricity prices, though EU industrial electricity runs 2-3x US prices and German, Danish and Irish household electricity prices rank near the top globally.

In digitalisation of government Germany ranks 21st out 27 EU countries.

Cro-Magnon vs Neanderthals. "Cro-Magnon" is a 19th century label, taken from the name of the rock shelter in the Dordogne, France where the first skeletons were found in 1868. They are modern humans. Neanderthal brains were as large as ours (or larger) and exhibited complex behaviour. Everyone of non-African descent carries roughly 1–2% Neanderthal DNA. Recent research argues that unsustainable demographics resulted in Neanderthals being absorbed into far larger incoming populations of Homo sapiens amid a volatile climate. One group was too small and too isolated to survive the arrival of a new, bigger, better-connected group.

Various European governments are weaning themselves, piecemeal, off US tech:

France: all ministries must file plans to move 2.5 million government computers to Linux by autumn 2026; Teams and Zoom to be replaced by the French-hosted Visio by 2027; national health-data platform to leave US-law-exposed infrastructure by end-2026.

Germany: Schleswig-Holstein has moved ~30,000 government workplaces (≈80%) to Linux and open-source office software, saving over €15m in licences.

Denmark: the Digital Affairs Ministry is switching to LibreOffice

Austria: the armed forces have completed their move off Microsoft Office.

Italy: the defence ministry is migrating off 150,000 PCs (€29m projected savings).

The European Parliament: voted 471–68 in January 2026 for a resolution to directing the Commission to map the EU’s dependencies.

• 00:00:00 Backstory
• 00:01:30 Today's topics
• 00:02:56 Russia's Black August
• 00:06:14 Europe's fires
• 00:09:38 US walkout on France
• 00:13:15 US's Europe Posture Review
• 00:18:52 UK's new Prime Minister
• 00:21:40 Primer: European Tech
• 00:34:59 Credits

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

A European President & US comedian: can you regulate your way to greatness, or only fine the people (ahem, Google) who got there first?

2 years after former Italian PM & ECB President Mario Draghi laid out the path to European greatness, how’s it going and what’s the obstacle to progress? This is your primer for the summer.

Updates & Clarifications

• Google’s EU fines: Hours after we recorded, the EU announced a €890 million fine, its first fine under the Digital Markets Act. Google's previous EU antitrust fines include €2.42bn (Shopping, 2017), €4.34bn (Android, 2018 — cut to €4.1bn on appeal and confirmed by the EU's top court this month), €1.49bn (AdSense, 2019 — annulled on appeal in 2024), and €2.95bn (adtech, 2025).
• EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package: this passed the afternoon after Google was fined. Greece got its compromise: EU ships can keep carrying Russian LNG to non-EU countries under contracts signed before the full-scale invasion, capped at current volumes and reviewed annually; existing business protected, no new business allowed. The visa ban on Russian soldiers was deferred (after objections led by France and Italy). Austria dropped its veto after the Raiffeisen-related measures were scaled back (its demand to compensate the bank against frozen Russian assets was not granted).
• New US Tariffs: the day after recording the Trump administration replaced it’s 10% tarrfis (which in turn replaced its unlawful previous triff regime) it with new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners, explicitly including the EU, on the stated grounds of lax enforcement of forced-labour import bans. That's the "new tariffs" Toomas said were coming. The EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the US justification groundless, on being asked whether the EU expected to be included: "Who can keep track of the tariffs going on and off?"
• The Frugals: officially Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden. Finland is counted as the honorary fifth.
• The book Toomas recommends is What the Dormouse Said by John Markoff

• 00:00:00 Introdcuction
• 00:01:30 This week's show
• 00:03:04 EU & Google tussle (again)
• 00:04:45 New US tariffs (strap in)
• 00:06:16 EU Sanctions Russia (why the delay?)
• 00:10:51 Ukraine defense shakeup
• 00:14:54 Dragi Report: backgrounder
• 00:16:27 "Euro-poors" & the veto problem
• 00:21:30 Industrial policy, climate policy & single market
• 00:26:10 How much!? (investment & borrowing)
• 00:35:37 When is this done?

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

How is Moscow sabotaging Europe and why is Washington bankrolling Europe’s pro-Putin opposition?

A European President & an American comedian what on earth is going on (and what comes next).

• 00:00:00 Introduction
• 00:01:51 NATO Summit - the fallout
• 00:10:15 US funds MAGA in Europe
• 00:15:53 Russsia's Hybrid War against Europe
• 00:24:21 Why it's hard for Europe to Sanction Russia
• 00:32:03 Credits

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

NATO is saved! Or was it one big Trumpian Freudian slip as the US Prez cuts off trade with Spain (can he?) and calls Zelensky “Putin”? And while French courts decide a convicted embezzler can run for President, what will the French themselves decide?

A European President & an American comedian what on earth is going on (and what comes next).

• 00:00:00 Introduction
• 00:01:30 Coming up...
• 00:02:39 NATO Summit debrief
• 00:16:39 Marine le Pen: Resurrection
• 00:21:37 Europe's Right Wing Parties
• 00:23:33 Nigel Farage
• 00:26:34 Previous Stories UPDATE
• 00:29:32 World Cup brouhaha
• 00:32:14 Credits

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

Facebook TheContinentalRift (https://www.facebook.com/TheContinentalRift/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella
  
  

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Will Trump actually show up to the NATO summit and is Washington really floating a "defence loyalty programme"? Also, can neutral Ireland credibly chair Europe's defence debate as it takes the EU chair?

A former President & a comedian on what's going on and what comes next.

Subscribe so you don't miss our Ankara NATO summit debrief next week.

CLARIFICATIONS

Irish corporate tax — Ireland had the lowest corporate tax rate in the EU when the American tech giants set up their European headquarters there. Today the EU's lowest headline rates are Hungary's (9%) and Amazon's European HQ is in Luxembourg, not Ireland.

Alumina and Rusal — Sweden's tax authority, Skatteverket, has ruled that Rusal's European operations (which include the Irish plant) should fall under EU sanctions, and froze €5.1m in the tax account of its Swedish smelter, Kubal. It's an agency ruling with EU-wide implications rather than a formal Swedish Government request for action to the EU.

Ireland's waters — Ireland's waters (not coastline) make up roughly 16% of the EU's total.

NATO — The Secretary General’s term is 4 years and, following Sweden’s accession in 2024, the organisation now has 32 members.

Putin's yacht — Since this episode was published, latest reporting is that the yarcht is heading to the Artic, not the Med.

• 00:00:00 Intro
• 00:02:30 Putin's yacht
• 00:05:05 NATO Summit: the pre-amble
• 00:13:10 Toomas' dramatic NATO Summit
• 00:15:16 Ireland takes the EU Presidency
• 00:23:05 Revisit: The Balkan-US grift
• 00:26:52 Was the American Revolution all about defence spending?
• 00:28:19 Credits

Youtube @TheContinentalRift (https://www.youtube.com/@TheContinentalRift)

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod (https://www.instagram.com/thecontinentalriftpod/)

Facebook TheContinentalRift (https://www.facebook.com/TheContinentalRift/)

X @ContRiftShow (https://x.com/ContRiftShow)

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts - https://conanroberts.com/Homepage
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella https://www.freshlens.film/
  
  

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

Ten years (and 6, soon 7, Prime Ministers) later was Brexit worth it and how did it change Europe? Also, why is Europe's hard right suddenly speed-walking away from Donald Trump?

A former President & a comedian on what's going on and what comes next.

CLARIFICATION

Zelensky was not stripped of Poland’s Order of Merit, but of the Order of the White Eagle, Poland’s highest honour, awarded to him in 2023 by then-President Andrzej Duda. Some Ukrainian officials returned Order of Merit decorations, while former Ukrainian presidents also returned their Polish honours in solidarity.

• 00:00:00 Intro
• 00:01:30 Heatwave
• 00:03:55 EU's Chief Diplomat
• 00:07:11 Ukraine vs Poland
• 00:09:55 Ukraine's EU Accession vs Hungary
• 00:11:20 Brexit Vote, 10 years on
• 00:18:05 Meloni vs Trump
• 00:25:42 Outro

Youtube @TheContinentalRift

Instagram @thecontinentalriftpod

Facebook TheContinentalRift

X @ContRiftShow

CREDITS

• Editor Conan Roberts
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella
  
  

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

A comedian and a former president walk into Europe's biggest mess.

American comedian Andy Valvur’s oldest friend, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, grew up to become President of Estonia. Now, as the transatlantic alliance comes apart, The Continental Rift is their weekly, irreverent take on European geopolitics: the EU, NATO, Trump, Russia, and what comes next.

Serious politics, questionable hosts.

New episodes weekly.

This week EUBS asks why…

… did the US embassy quietly killed the dinners where diplomacy actually happens? And why do the Europeans count getting tariffed as a win?

Also…

Ukraine gets to try to join the EU, but can you fill in Europe’s paperwork while fighting for survival (and will French farmers be happy to acept. farming superpower into their club)?

And at the G7 in Évian, has holding the free world together really come down to keeping one man in a good mood?

• 00:00:00 Intro
• 00:01:30 EUBS: American diplomacy dinners end
• 00:03:21 EUBS: US EU trade deal ratified
• 00:04:37 Ukraine's accession to the EU
• 00:12:25 G7 in Evian
• 00:15:43 EUtopia
• 00:18:05 Credits

CREDITS

Editor Conan Roberts

Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer

Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)

Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

A comedian & ex President (of Estonia, twice) - childhood buddies, American raised now living in Europe - riff on the 'divorce' between the US & Europe.

Serious politics, questionable hosts.

This week EUBS asks why…

does Pete Hegseth equate the allied (including US) storming the Normandy beaches on D-Day to liberate Europe from Nazi tyranny with migrants fleeing war; whether dressing some of his kids in US military uniform is good “optics”, and why the EU Parliament hosts groups with odd beliefs.

Also…

Is America Europe’s friend or, er… not?

https://ecfr.eu/publication/home-alone-europeans-are-ready-to-defend-themselves/

Ireland’s alumina scandal

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/06/08/why-ireland-is-under-fire-over-its-alumina-exports-to-russia

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/06/09/kaja-kallas-urges-ireland-to-get-the-facts-straight-on-alumina-sales-to-russia

Albania gets in a mess with Kushner & EU

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/5/why-the-kushners-plan-to-build-an-albanian-resort-has-sparked-protests

• 00:00:00 Introduction
• 00:01:32 America, friend or....not?
• 00:05:12 EUBS
• 00:11:09 Ireland's alumina scandal
• 00:16:05 Albania's Kushner Resort
• 00:22:15 Other fun stuff & looking ahead

CREDITS

• Editor Valter Nõmm
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved

A comedian & ex President (of Estonia, twice) - childhood buddies, American raised now living in Europe - riff on the 'divorce' between the US & Europe.

Serious politics, questionable hosts.

This week EUBS asks why…

The EU insists on a fleet of EVs that cannot make the trip between Brussels and Strasbourg in on a single charge; why Albanians are protesting a Kushner real estate development and why Hungary’s President is appealing to European institutions to help him stay in post.

Also…

Russia’s Shadow Tanker Fleet

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/the-shadow-fleet-is-undermining-the-maritime-order-more-brazenly-than-ever/

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-06-01/frances-macron-says-french-navy-boarded-russia-linked-oil-tanker

https://kyivindependent.com/eus-last-shipyard-servicing-russian-lng-fleet-may-repair-up-to-6-vessels-before-ban-report-says/

Europe’s Single Capital Market

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-10-2025-0124_EN.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/eu-s-economic-powers-strike-deal-to-push-capital-markets-merger

https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/05/asml-ceo-christophe-fouquet-no-one-is-coming-for-us/

• 00:00:00 Intro
• 00:02:40 EUBS: EU's EV fleet, Hungary's President & Albania protests Kushners
• 00:10:54 Russia's Show Tanker Fleet
• 00:19:27 Baby Steps to joined up Capital Markets
• 00:30:38 Next week...
• 00:32:32 Credits

CREDITS

• Editor Valter Nõmm
• Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer
• Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion)
• Executive Producer Fred Casella

© Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved