The Cosmopolicast

Show notes:

* India joins the elite list of nations with test of Agni-V MIRV tech

* Mission Divyastra: What Agni-5 missile with MIRV tech can do

* Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan: self-reliant India

* Why “poverty first, moon next” is an absurd argument

* IAEA: Iran is “not entirely transparent” on its atomic program

* West concerned over Iranian nuclear bomb in IAEA meeting

* Too close for comfort: Cases of near-nuclear use and options for policy

* Twenty mishaps that might have started accidental nuclear war

* Causes of false missile alerts: the sun, the moon and a 46-cent chip

* Black carbon lofts wildfire smoke high into the stratosphere to form a persistent plume

* What wildfire smoke tells us about nuclear winter

* Could nuclear weapons testing resume as global tensions rise?

* Several countries could be planning nuclear tests, India and Pakistan may follow suit

* Where are they? Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing

Here are some of the articles CG has published over the years treating the (very real, and growing) risk of nuclear war. Many of you have read them already, but if you’re new to CG, be sure to have a look.

I’m writing a bit more, separately, about the latest news about Iran’s nuclear program. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, read that. ⬆️ It’s news you can use.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

We have a name!

This podcast will from now on be called ‘Round the Globe with John and Claire. We like it because it’s simple and it says what it’s about.

From now on you’ll receive ‘Round the Globe with John and Claire every weekday. It’s a bonus, not a substitute for any of the other things we do. We’d love it if you subscribed:

What’s your verdict so far? How can we improve it?

The show notes are interleaved among the other articles, below. I’ve appended GLOBAL EYES to the podcast because these items are related to what we discuss.

“We are surely approaching a moment for Europe in which it will be necessary not to be cowards.” —Emmanuel Macron, March 5, during a visit to the Czech Republic

The situation along the front in Ukraine is absolutely critical, with Russia bearing down on the front with its mass in several directions, said the chair of Estonia’s Foreign Affairs Committee, Marko Mihkelson, after a visit to the front:

“I’ve been here for three days, and moved around along the entire front together with volunteers; I’ve met with troops and officers from around a dozen different fighting brigades, from Kupiansk to Lyman, Bakhmut and the Avdiivka region, and currently I’m on the southern front toward Orikhiv. … In each of these directions, Russian forces now have absolutely massive initiative, massive firepower and massive manpower, which is pushing the Ukrainian front in all of these directions, both to the east and the south … Everyone I’ve spoken to has the message that they’re catastrophically short on artillery shells as well as quite a lot of other equipment. And Russia’s quantitative force is what's currently very troubling on the front.”

According to the Estonian committee chair, many people are very angry about what’s currently being said in Europe and the US. “They can see that the West doesn’t comprehend the current extremely critical situation in this war, where what’s needed is actions, not words … This morning, in one part of the southern front right here, there was such a barrage of Russian artillery fire from 5-8 am that there wasn’t even a second of silence. … Along one part of the front, Russians have a 100:1 advantage in artillery fire. In a situation like that, it’s easy to understand why the Ukrainians are questioning what Western powers want to achieve.” The MP also noted that despite the incredibly difficult situation, Ukrainian morale still remains high.

Commenting on French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent statement about how the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out, Mihkelson described Macron’s words as ill-considered rhetoric. “Talk regarding whether to send ground troops to Ukraine should first and foremost be worked out among ourselves, and not argued publicly,” he said. “This isn't exactly the best rhetoric at a time when Ukraine needs actual military support in order to curb Russian pressure.”

(This is the only video I could find with English subtitles. It should search to the important part automatically.)

Blast from the Past: Remember this? Macron’s behavior toward Putin had been so delusional, for so long, that in 2002 I wrote this article:

…. He has spent the past five years trying to draw Russia into his embrace, evidence be damned. Apart from Germany, the rest of Europe—the Baltic states and Ukraine, in particular—have viewed Macron as a preening, Putin-loving nincompoop, at best; an outright menace to European security and NATO’s integrity at worst.

Leaked files reveal Russian military’s criteria for nuclear strike. (The article I mentioned to John.)

Macron tells party leaders France’s support to Ukraine has “no limits.” French President Emmanuel Macron met with leaders of the opposition to discuss the war in Ukraine. He has suggested that Ukraine’s allies should not rule out sending troops.

Macron urges Ukraine’s allies not to be “cowardly.” The French president is on a visit to Prague to clarify his country’s standpoint on a Czech plan to buy weapons outside Europe for Ukraine.

Macron ready to send troops to Ukraine if Russia approaches Kyiv or Odesa. At a meeting with a range of political parties, the President of France floated a scenario that could potentially lead to French troops deployed in Ukraine.

* Prime Minister Kaja Kallas: Ukraine has asked for ammunition and air defense—not ground forces.

Troops for Ukraine: Macron’s big moment, by Nicolas Tenzer. Macron ended the taboo on discussion as part of a carefully considered switch in policy. He means what he says—the question is whether others will follow.

French ambassador: We provide a lot of support to Ukraine, but don’t always announce it.

[Ambassador Mignot said], “I think he really said that on purpose. To create, to show that we have resolve and determination, and we are not afraid of going further in supporting Ukraine. There were many issues in that Paris meeting; in particular, I think there is an assessment that Russia is becoming more and more aggressive. This is clear in France, where we see disinformation campaigns orchestrated by Russia. We see also Russia being more aggressive and creating chaos in Africa and the Middle East.” …

According to the French ambassador, the attitude of Paris towards Russia has changed significantly, and this is also reflected in its support for Ukraine. “In France, we have tripled the production of ammunition for Ukraine. We have increased our training capacity. We are training more specialists, so we are doing more and more. But it takes time, I think to adapt the industry to produce more capacity …to produce Cesar guns, I think this has now decreased from 30 months to 15 months; we are delivering cruise missiles, and President Macron announced a new batch of cruise missiles and bombs to be delivered to Ukraine. … “We are doing a lot, and we are not telling everything about what we are doing, that's why we are in international reports, we might be a little below.”

I have been talking a lot about this in the foreign media lately and used the expression that before things get better, they usually get worse. But Estonian people are more direct and maybe have a slightly more realistic attitude towards the war in Ukraine. The reality is that things get worse before they get better. Then they get even worse. And then they suddenly go completely crazy. And only then do they slowly get better. Today we are somewhere between bad and getting worse.

—Estonian Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm

Estonian Minister of Defense: Europe needs to take a bigger, stronger and more aggressive role in supporting Ukraine:

… “[I]t is possible that Ukraine can lose this war. This is a sentence that is considerably more complex and difficult to say. It is all the more important that we say it. Because the prospect of Ukraine losing this war is absolutely catastrophic for Estonian security, for European security, and for NATO security. …

One of Ukraine’s biggest problems is a “catastrophic” shortage of ammunition that is “getting worse every day. As it stands today, of all the artillery that has been given to Ukraine, one-third is in use. The daily norm per artillery piece is six to eight rounds. This is total starvation when we are talking about winning a war. Russia has a huge surplus. They have many times more artillery and dozens of times more ammunition.” …

Salm said Ukraine has been able to spread its artillery over a 1,000-kilometer front with the help of allies, intelligence and targeting. But ammunition stocks are quickly diminishing. The rapid recruitment of soldiers also means their training is “insufficient.” … “This will lead to even greater loss of human life, which in turn risks greater territorial concessions. This adds some fuel to the Russian war of attrition victory theory.”

He said Western allies struggle to provide ammunition for many reasons, such as logistics and production, but the focus should be on political will and money. “Today, there is not a single head of state in the Ramstein coalition who has not stated the need to support Ukraine and spoken at length about it, made a speech, or taken a selfie with President Volodymyr Zelensky. There is plenty of political will. What is lacking is the capacity. The capacity to put enough money on the table for Ukraine to win this war.” …

Salm said if the US does not want to finance Ukraine’s victory, then Europe must step up. “And if Europe, for whatever reason, does not want to, then we [Estonia] have to do it. It is as simple as that. And that is what this existential threat means for us.”

Former Estonian diplomat Harri Tiido: Macron is acting this way because of Scholz’s weakness:

“When I examine Britain’s views, and now those also held in France, it seems there is actually a completely rational explanation as to why Macron is acting as he has been. This is because Scholz has shown weakness, but Europe needs a leader. This is particularly the case in a situation where America’s leading role in this may evaporate,” Tiido continued. “Plus I think Macron has been aspiring for some time to get France in place as a lead country, and to be at the helm of that leading country. So he’s looking to play that role,” Tiido added.

… “Indeed, actually every herd needs a leader of that sort. And I think that the ‘herd’ of European politicians needs such a leader, one who could point them in the right direction.” … Tiido said he believes that France will be ready to fulfill Macron’s pledges. “I think that Macron wants to back up his words with something concrete. But the question is that the lead ram can bring the flock in one direction, but the flock may prefer to head to the slaughterhouse.”

Mujtaba Rahman:

Macron today produced maps of a possible Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the West to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks with French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on French involvement in the conflict.

Macron summoned leaders of all French parliamentary parties to talks at the Elysée Palace to explain his controversial remarks last week in which he said the deployment of western troops in Ukraine should no longer be excluded. Participants in the meeting said Macron had explained his theory of “strategic ambivalence”—keeping Moscow guessing. Since Vladimir Putin clearly knew no limits, he said, the West had been handing him an advantage by fixing or “interiorizing” limits of its own.

But Opposition leaders of the Far Right, Right and Left said they had been left worried and unconvinced by Macron’s approach (which has also been rejected by the US, UK, Germany and several other NATO countries). Jordan Bardella, the president and de facto Number Two of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National, said threatening to send French soldiers “to fight a nuclear power like Russia is irresponsible and extremely dangerous for world peace.” The Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel said that he feared that Macron was “ready to engage in a bellicose escalation which would be very dangerous.”

Today’s meeting was the prelude to a two-day parliamentary debate next week to discuss a ten-year defense pact signed by Macron and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, last month. Macron told French journalists on Wednesday that he hoped this debate would “make it clear” which political forces in France supported Ukraine and which supported Russia.

Elysée officials deny domestic politics and June EU elections have influenced Macron’s new rhetoric on Ukraine. They say he is driven by the difficult situation on front line, Navalny’s murder, and Kremlin talk of a possible attempt on his own life when he visits Kyiv later this month.

Macron is, however, evidently hoping the new rhetoric will embarrass Le Pen, who had a long history of Putin worship before the Ukraine invasion. The government’s spokeswoman, Prisca Thevenot, says it is “quite evident” that Le Pen, unlike Macron, is not “committed to Russia’s defeat.”

How a deepfake launched a rumor about a plan to assassinate Emmanuel Macron in Ukraine. This is in French, but you can set it to show you English subtitles. I noticed this was being widely shared on Twitter by the kind of people Elon Musk finds very persuasive.

With Sweden in NATO, the alliance has new ways to strike Russia’s prime targets.

Nima Khorrami, an analyst at the Arctic Institute, [said] that Sweden’s membership “extends NATO’s missile range, putting strategic locations in Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg within reach. This adds another layer of deterrence against potential Russian aggression, as NATO forces can effectively respond to threats in real time.”

St. Petersburg, Russia’s second city, has long been the base of Russia’s Baltic fleet. Kaliningrad was formerly named Königsberg and was seized by the Soviet Union from Germany in World War II. It extends Russia’s capacity to project its power into the Baltic region, containing air defenses, electronic warfare units to scramble GPS systems, cruise missiles, and more. It would likely play a key role in any Russian attempt to attack the Suwalki Gap and Baltic nations. “Degrading Russian assets there is critical for NATO operations in the area. That would, in particular, need a saturation of Russian air defense systems. … Sweden is important for both safely receiving NATO troops and capabilities and by being hard to target for Russian forces, while being close enough to Kaliningrad to launch long-range precision capabilities. At its closest, Sweden is 280 kilometers away from Kaliningrad which is a good distance.”

★ Sweden joins “NATO lake” on Moscow’s doorstep. All countries with shores on Baltic Sea except Russia are now part of western defense alliance. (An excellent article.)

Sweden finally joined NATO on Thursday, meaning the western defense alliance has nearly ringed the entire Baltic Sea, a significant oil trading route for Russia and home to one of its fleets. “The Baltic Sea becomes a NATO lake,” said Krišjānis Kariņš, Latvia’s foreign minister and a self-declared candidate to head NATO. As it formally becomes the 32nd member of the US-led alliance during a ceremony in Washington, Sweden brings with it the mid-Baltic island of Gotland—dubbed a “giant aircraft carrier”—which makes the defense of the three small Baltic states easier.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has announced plans to reorganize Russia’s military and beef up forces in the region to “neutralize threats” he said arose from Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said last week that “all the long decades of good neighborliness have gone to dust” because the US military “has the right to do whatever they want in Sweden—visit any site and create any of their own.” Russia’s response would include “additional systems that will be appropriate to the threats that could appear on the territory of Finland and Sweden,” he said.

Russia’s interests in the Baltic Sea are both economic and military. St. Petersburg, which has substantial oil refineries, ships its exports via the Gulf of Finland through the Baltic Sea. The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, wedged between Poland and Lithuania, is home to Russia’s Baltic fleet and nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles. Russia has threatened to change the region’s “non-nuclear” status in the past but has not said whether the weapons carry nuclear warheads.

In case of a conflict, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania up until now would have relied almost exclusively on securing reinforcements and supplies via the Suwałki Gap, a narrow and vulnerable 100-kilometer strip separating the Baltics from Poland. By joining NATO, Sweden provides new possibilities via the sea, as Gotland is less than 200 kilometers from the Latvian coast. “It reduces the vulnerability of the Baltics through only the Suwałki Gap. The entire security of the region is made stronger because it makes the eastern Baltic less vulnerable,” said Kariņš. …

The Baltic states may be the biggest immediate beneficiaries from Sweden joining, with Stockholm set to send a battalion to join the multinational presence in Latvia. But the deepest changes over time are likely in the Nordic region itself. Cooperation between the four main countries—Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland—has long been close but is now set to become more intense. A taster was provided last year when the four Nordic air forces announced their intention to operate their fleet of about 230 fighter jets as one seamless operation, making it larger than the RAF in the UK or Germany’s air force. Already, Norwegian F-35 and Swedish Gripen fighter jets have practised landing on Finnish roads. ... “The airspace over the Scandinavian peninsula is important and always has been if you look at World War Two or the Cold War. If you control the airspace over the Nordics, you really have an advantage.”

NATO’s new map: Sweden officially joins alliance in blow to Russia.

Sweden’s inclusion in NATO will enhance the alliance’s strategic breadth and depth:

Sweden’s membership in NATO brings several advantages, key among them its comprehensive defense capabilities, strategic influence over the Baltic Sea and a robust defense industry. Expertise in navigating the Baltic Sea, particularly due to the strategic significance of the Swedish island of Gotland, enhances NATO’s control in the region. This is increasingly vital in the context of any potential conflict with Russia. Sweden has the third-largest navy in the Baltic Sea after Russia and Germany. Together with the air force, it will contribute to securing the transport of troops and materiel across the Baltic Sea.

Sweden’s contributions to NATO: Bolstering the alliance’s defense industry and air capabilities:

What Sweden brings to NATO. The traditionally neutral country has built a formidable military-industrial complex:

… It makes everything from Saab JAS 39 Gripen single-engine supersonic fighters to Carl Gustav recoilless rifles, AT4 shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons, Gotland-class submarines, and RBS15 anti-ship missiles. It also cooperates with other military producers, with one example being the Stridsvagn 122, the Swedish version of the German Leopard 2 tank.

★ Sweden and Finland add both muscle and risk to NATO. In a bigger NATO with waning leadership, new members could bolster a political appetite for dialogue with Russia. The alliance must prepare all members to reinforce a collective defense vision:

… worryingly, unlike in past crises, time is not on NATO’s side. China and the Global South are growing, and Russia is on a war footing. The United States is wavering; Germany lacks a geopolitical compass; France talks of Europe but delivers more words than action; and Eastern European allies know that “Europe” cannot extend deterrence to protect them.

Sooner or later, some allies will be tempted to open a dialogue with Russia—to take the pressure off and buy Europe time, and to bow to the reality that without the United States, Europe must recognize limits to its community. Such a dash for dialogue would be both a reversal of NATO’s Harmel legacy and a dire sign of waning political will.

(Although the author, Sten Rynning, raises reasonable points, I’m not worried that Finland and Sweden will undermine the alliance by wavering in their resolve toward Russia. It’s the US I’m worried about.)

Sweden’s membership will strengthen NATO, but the delays associated with its accession has revealed several concerns about the credibility and future of the alliance. … In the short term, the alliance will want to complete the work on preparing for the defense of its eastern members. In the longer term, the key question that needs to be settled is that of a more global role for NATO: Is it merely the security guarantor of Europe or the bedrock for the wider defense of the West and the liberal international order?

Also notable:

★ Escalation Management in Ukraine. Assessing the US Response to Russia’s Manipulation of Risk:

… As failures on the battlefield and domestic criticism intensified, US intelligence overheard a conversation among senior Russian military commanders about when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin was reportedly not part of these conversations. That intelligence was circulated inside the US government in mid-October. Almost at the same time, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, in one of his calls with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, accused Ukraine of planning to use a “dirty bomb.” The vagueness of the threats along with an increase in their frequency deepened concern that Russia could be manipulating risk in the face of a tactical defeat. The available evidence cannot establish whether Russian generals were deliberately manipulating risk, as Schelling would have recommended, but the effects were similar in many ways.

As tensions grew, the United States made multiple efforts to clarify and reduce the uncertainties directly with Moscow. In a long phone call, General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, discussed Russia’s doctrine that governed the use of nuclear weapons. Gerasimov made clear that Russia would use nuclear weapons only in the narrow set of enabling conditions made clear in Russia’s strategic doctrine. That shared understanding helped to reduce somewhat the uncertainty between the two most senior generals in Moscow and Washington. In this case, doctrine played a larger role in reducing uncertainty than strategic analysts expect. Gerasimov’s willingness to put some boundaries around these conditions simultaneously reduced uncertainty and made a threat to use nuclear force more credible should these conditions occur. At least at that time, although the Russian army was under pressure, Russia’s military leaders chose to focus on reducing uncertainty rather than on manipulating risk through a threat that left something to chance.

Claire—this is a fascinating study. It helps—very much—to explain Biden’s decisions about which weapons to send and when. Reading it made me feel more sympathy for his decision-making.

Estonian Defense Forces Colonel: The Russian Armed Forces are still holding the initiative on the ground, and the tempo of their operations have begun to pick up again.

★ How a little-used parliamentary maneuver could decide the fate of Ukraine funding, and perhaps the war. House members are trying to bypass Speaker Mike Johnson by forcing a floor vote on the aid package via a discharge petition:

Oleksandr Batalov, a 39-year-old member of Ukraine’s armed forces, says he would not have lost his leg on the battlefield if his country’s armed forces had more artillery. The delayed flow of weaponry to Kyiv meant the Ukrainian forces couldn’t reach him and evacuate him quickly enough to save his leg. Instead, he lay wounded for more than six hours as bullets whizzed above his head. …

Batalov traveled to Washington this week as part of a delegation of Ukrainian veterans to address officials in the Pentagon and lawmakers in Congress … Johnson did not meet with the Ukrainian veterans due to a tight schedule. Johnson did not respond to requests for comment.

… “You just can’t do this and think you can get it all done in a week or two,” O’Donnell said. “They need to get all of the actors on the outside, the interest groups and everybody else on the outside, to put together a plan to lobby these members on this stuff. To get somebody to sign a discharge petition, you’ve got to have your targets and then you’ve got to lobby the party,” he added. “You need time. You need a whip team for the Republicans and a whip team for the Democrats.” So far, neither McGovern nor Fitzpatrick are attempting to whip votes. And even getting a vote in the House isn’t a silver-bullet solution. If one of these bills gets enough signatures and passes the chamber, it must head back to the Senate for approval. That would further lengthen the process.

Lithuanian intelligence: Russia preparing for long confrontation with NATO:

… The report noted that the Kremlin has initiated a major reform of the armed forces, which expands Russia’s military capabilities in the Baltic Sea region. Planned structural and leadership changes have already begun, with some of them being implemented in Kaliningrad and western Russia. “This reform is a long-term project that requires significant resources and is expected to take up to ten years,” representatives of Lithuanian intelligence noted.

They stated that the overall pace and scope of the reform depend directly on the course, duration and outcomes of military actions in Ukraine. It was also noted that Russia has sufficient financial, human, material and technical resources to continue hostilities with similar intensity at least in the short term, with intelligence estimating up to two years.

Thirty years ago, Estonian President Lennart Meri delivered a speech at a formal ball in Hamburg. Vladimir Putin, at the time relatively unknown, was in the audience. He stormed out in fury. Three decades later, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas returned to give the keynote address:

… From a subjective point of view it is understandable that the breakdown of the Soviet Union caused the West to feel a kind of triumph; it is also understandable, subjectively, that the West concentrated all its hopes and empathies on the true or ostensible forces of reform in Russia. This attitude, however, has brought the West to a risk of wishful thinking.

These are not actually my words. These words were spoken 30 years ago in this very room by Lennart Meri, Estonia’s first president after we escaped from the Soviet prison and restored our independence. … What exactly did President Meri say that so upset Putin? It is clear by now that his speech reads like a prophecy of what has gone on since then. Putin’s storming out revealed his true colors, very early on. Many just didn’t get that message, however, or didn’t want to pay it any attention. …

I come here almost directly from the Munich Security Conference. There, President Zelensky rightly posed the main question we should be asking ourselves now: “Please do not ask Ukraine when the war will end. Ask yourself why Putin is still able to continue it.”

We need to answer that question—not just in words but actions.

What I missed in Munich this time around was a spirit of triumph.

Estonia’s mantra during our Singing Revolution within the Soviet prison was: One day we will win, no matter what (Estonian: Ükskord me võidame niikuinii). This is what we all should be calling for at the top of our voice, for Ukraine, and for ourselves. Without real belief, no real action will follow. It’s a losing game to build your strategy upon pessimism.

… Fear is the trap that Putin has set up against all of us in the Free World. Threats by Russian leaders and images of nuclear explosions on Russian state TV are aimed to scare our people and influence our decisions. By sowing fear, they want to change the perception of war in our societies. By getting rid of political opponents—as Alexei Navalny's death tragically reminds us-- they want to kill all hope.

I keep receiving questions about what Putin would do if Russia loses. My answer: We should worry more about what he will do if Russia wins. And it makes no sense to keep asking if Estonia is afraid, or if Poland is next. Don’t forget, that question really is one asking whether NATO will be next. We all have skin in the game. But if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, there is no need to ask this question any more. So let's not blur our focus, but do everything to support Ukraine in pushing Russia back to its own territory. Let’s not repeat the mistakes of the 1930s. Our mantra should be that defense is not escalation. Resistance does not provoke Russia—weakness does.

… We must tell the truth to ourselves. The truth is that Ukraine will run out of ammunition unless we come up with quick deliveries. Long-term commitments are important, but it is also a fact of war that the side having the most ammunition will win.

Unity is our hardest currency. Together we can help Ukraine win this war. We have the resources, the economic might, the expertise. Our strength outweighs Russia’s. Let’s not be afraid of our own power.

Dictators also know that democracies have elections. They think that makes us weak, but if we have a clear goal of victory and a winning strategy in place, our democracies are also our strength and force. This means our focus should also be on making sure Ukrainians receive help regardless of party-political distractions and realities within our own countries. Regardless of the comings and goings of elections. For that, we need to have our public on board, so it is highly important to keep them informed of how our adversaries act and what they think—in short; of what the threats around us are.

… has become increasingly clear that the front line of Putin’s so-called shadow war runs through the hearts of our own democracies: universities, parliaments, media and other institutions. The Kremlin’s disinformation is reaching wide audiences via social media; it sits literally within our pockets, phones and apps. The aim of Russia's influence operations is to influence democratic decision-making—including decisions we make at the ballot-boxes.

… To return to where I started—this room, thirty years ago. Listen to Putin’s footfalls as he stormed out. Really listen. Are we now going to let him walk all over Ukraine? Are we going to let dictators call the shots? Or are we going to finally learn from history? ...

A letter to Mike Johnson from the speakers of the parliaments of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Estonia, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, the Netherlands, North-Macedonia, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Ukraine:

Dear Mr. Speaker,

In recent days, a solemn anniversary loomed large, commemorating the two-year mark since Russia and its dictatorial regime invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked and unjustified act of aggression. This invasion has obviously endangered not only the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, but has also challenged the entire democratic world, jeopardizing the security in the whole European and Euro-Atlantic area.

Over these past two years, the countries that remain committed to our shared values and believe in a world based on rules and respect to the UN Charter have united to help Ukraine and its people in repelling the brutal aggression that is claiming hundreds of lives every day. Our joint assistance has helped to stop the aggressor and liberate a large share of previously occupied territories of Ukraine. We welcome the indispensable and prominent role of the United States in this joint effort. The US has consistently demonstrated strong bipartisan support for Ukraine’s victory in its fight against the Russian invasion.

We also observe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a significant impact on the development of the security situation in the world. We see that while Iran and North Korea have begun to provide direct military support to Russia, the criminal actions of the Kremlin regime have inspired other dictatorial and undemocratic regimes, become a catalyst for the escalation of old conflicts, and put us on the brink of new confrontations. Today, the world is rapidly moving towards the destruction of the sustainable world order.

We see it as our responsibility and our task to prevent this descent into chaos and impunity, and therefore our countries are committed to further increasing our support to Ukraine and its defense forces, seeing it as a considerable investment in our individual and collective security. The axis of evil must be defeated, and all perpetrators brought to justice. This will serve as a significant deterrent to further conflicts and will return a sense of control and security to our peoples.

We believe that thanks to your personal leadership, the Congress will demonstrate historic bipartisan unity in support of the collective efforts to assist Ukraine; therefore, we ask you to take the next step toward adopting a historic decision on HR 815 that will secure US assistance to foreign countries and provide Ukraine with the necessary funds to continue its fight.

With faith in our common democratic values, sincerely yours.

I hate Mike Johnson in a way I’ve never hated a politician before. He is condemning the brave, valiant Ukrainians to rape, murder, and servitude. He is ensuring a wider European war—a wider global war—in which countless young Americans will die. I look at my nephew, who will be of draft age in a few years, and I think—actually, I don’t think I should finish this sentence.

A spooky thing happened today. Zoom’s AI assistant sent this to me:

Meeting summary for Claire Berlinski’s Zoom Meeting (03/08/2024)

Quick recap

Claire warned about the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO and urged Europe to prepare for this eventuality within the next three years. She expressed concerns about the potential loss in a war against Vladimir Putin and the severe consequences that could arise.

Summary

Russian Threat: Europe’s Three-Year Warning

Claire issued a warning about the potential threat of a Russian attack on NATO, suggesting that Europe only has three years to prepare for this eventuality. She indicated that it could lose a war to Vladimir Putin, painting a dire picture of the potential consequences.

Next steps

Next steps were not generated due to insufficient transcript.

What’s wrong with that, you may be asking? Here’s what’s wrong: I never had that conversation. With anyone. I wasn’t speaking to John, or anyone else, at the time this conversation supposedly took place. Yes, I’m certain of that.

Make of that what you will.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

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The show notes are interleaved among the other articles, below. I’ve appended GLOBAL EYES to the podcast because these items are related to what we discuss.

“We are surely approaching a moment for Europe in which it will be necessary not to be cowards.” —Emmanuel Macron, March 5, during a visit to the Czech Republic

The situation along the front in Ukraine is absolutely critical, with Russia bearing down on the front with its mass in several directions, said the chair of Estonia’s Foreign Affairs Committee, Marko Mihkelson, after a visit to the front:

“I’ve been here for three days, and moved around along the entire front together with volunteers; I’ve met with troops and officers from around a dozen different fighting brigades, from Kupiansk to Lyman, Bakhmut and the Avdiivka region, and currently I’m on the southern front toward Orikhiv. … In each of these directions, Russian forces now have absolutely massive initiative, massive firepower and massive manpower, which is pushing the Ukrainian front in all of these directions, both to the east and the south … Everyone I’ve spoken to has the message that they’re catastrophically short on artillery shells as well as quite a lot of other equipment. And Russia’s quantitative force is what's currently very troubling on the front.”

According to the Estonian committee chair, many people are very angry about what’s currently being said in Europe and the US. “They can see that the West doesn’t comprehend the current extremely critical situation in this war, where what’s needed is actions, not words … This morning, in one part of the southern front right here, there was such a barrage of Russian artillery fire from 5-8 am that there wasn’t even a second of silence. … Along one part of the front, Russians have a 100:1 advantage in artillery fire. In a situation like that, it’s easy to understand why the Ukrainians are questioning what Western powers want to achieve.” The MP also noted that despite the incredibly difficult situation, Ukrainian morale still remains high.

Commenting on French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent statement about how the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out, Mihkelson described Macron’s words as ill-considered rhetoric. “Talk regarding whether to send ground troops to Ukraine should first and foremost be worked out among ourselves, and not argued publicly,” he said. “This isn't exactly the best rhetoric at a time when Ukraine needs actual military support in order to curb Russian pressure.”

(This is the only video I could find with English subtitles. It should search to the important part automatically.)

Blast from the Past: Remember this? Macron’s behavior toward Putin had been so delusional, for so long, that in 2002 I wrote this article:

…. He has spent the past five years trying to draw Russia into his embrace, evidence be damned. Apart from Germany, the rest of Europe—the Baltic states and Ukraine, in particular—have viewed Macron as a preening, Putin-loving nincompoop, at best; an outright menace to European security and NATO’s integrity at worst.

Leaked files reveal Russian military’s criteria for nuclear strike. (The article I mentioned to John.)

Macron tells party leaders France’s support to Ukraine has “no limits.” French President Emmanuel Macron met with leaders of the opposition to discuss the war in Ukraine. He has suggested that Ukraine’s allies should not rule out sending troops.

Macron urges Ukraine’s allies not to be “cowardly.” The French president is on a visit to Prague to clarify his country’s standpoint on a Czech plan to buy weapons outside Europe for Ukraine.

Macron ready to send troops to Ukraine if Russia approaches Kyiv or Odesa. At a meeting with a range of political parties, the President of France floated a scenario that could potentially lead to French troops deployed in Ukraine.

* Prime Minister Kaja Kallas: Ukraine has asked for ammunition and air defense—not ground forces.

Troops for Ukraine: Macron’s big moment, by Nicolas Tenzer. Macron ended the taboo on discussion as part of a carefully considered switch in policy. He means what he says—the question is whether others will follow.

French ambassador: We provide a lot of support to Ukraine, but don’t always announce it.

[Ambassador Mignot said], “I think he really said that on purpose. To create, to show that we have resolve and determination, and we are not afraid of going further in supporting Ukraine. There were many issues in that Paris meeting; in particular, I think there is an assessment that Russia is becoming more and more aggressive. This is clear in France, where we see disinformation campaigns orchestrated by Russia. We see also Russia being more aggressive and creating chaos in Africa and the Middle East.” …

According to the French ambassador, the attitude of Paris towards Russia has changed significantly, and this is also reflected in its support for Ukraine. “In France, we have tripled the production of ammunition for Ukraine. We have increased our training capacity. We are training more specialists, so we are doing more and more. But it takes time, I think to adapt the industry to produce more capacity …to produce Cesar guns, I think this has now decreased from 30 months to 15 months; we are delivering cruise missiles, and President Macron announced a new batch of cruise missiles and bombs to be delivered to Ukraine. … “We are doing a lot, and we are not telling everything about what we are doing, that's why we are in international reports, we might be a little below.”

I have been talking a lot about this in the foreign media lately and used the expression that before things get better, they usually get worse. But Estonian people are more direct and maybe have a slightly more realistic attitude towards the war in Ukraine. The reality is that things get worse before they get better. Then they get even worse. And then they suddenly go completely crazy. And only then do they slowly get better. Today we are somewhere between bad and getting worse.

—Estonian Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm

Estonian Minister of Defense: Europe needs to take a bigger, stronger and more aggressive role in supporting Ukraine:

… “[I]t is possible that Ukraine can lose this war. This is a sentence that is considerably more complex and difficult to say. It is all the more important that we say it. Because the prospect of Ukraine losing this war is absolutely catastrophic for Estonian security, for European security, and for NATO security. …

One of Ukraine’s biggest problems is a “catastrophic” shortage of ammunition that is “getting worse every day. As it stands today, of all the artillery that has been given to Ukraine, one-third is in use. The daily norm per artillery piece is six to eight rounds. This is total starvation when we are talking about winning a war. Russia has a huge surplus. They have many times more artillery and dozens of times more ammunition.” …

Salm said Ukraine has been able to spread its artillery over a 1,000-kilometer front with the help of allies, intelligence and targeting. But ammunition stocks are quickly diminishing. The rapid recruitment of soldiers also means their training is “insufficient.” … “This will lead to even greater loss of human life, which in turn risks greater territorial concessions. This adds some fuel to the Russian war of attrition victory theory.”

He said Western allies struggle to provide ammunition for many reasons, such as logistics and production, but the focus should be on political will and money. “Today, there is not a single head of state in the Ramstein coalition who has not stated the need to support Ukraine and spoken at length about it, made a speech, or taken a selfie with President Volodymyr Zelensky. There is plenty of political will. What is lacking is the capacity. The capacity to put enough money on the table for Ukraine to win this war.” …

Salm said if the US does not want to finance Ukraine’s victory, then Europe must step up. “And if Europe, for whatever reason, does not want to, then we [Estonia] have to do it. It is as simple as that. And that is what this existential threat means for us.”

Former Estonian diplomat Harri Tiido: Macron is acting this way because of Scholz’s weakness:

“When I examine Britain’s views, and now those also held in France, it seems there is actually a completely rational explanation as to why Macron is acting as he has been. This is because Scholz has shown weakness, but Europe needs a leader. This is particularly the case in a situation where America’s leading role in this may evaporate,” Tiido continued. “Plus I think Macron has been aspiring for some time to get France in place as a lead country, and to be at the helm of that leading country. So he’s looking to play that role,” Tiido added.

… “Indeed, actually every herd needs a leader of that sort. And I think that the ‘herd’ of European politicians needs such a leader, one who could point them in the right direction.” … Tiido said he believes that France will be ready to fulfill Macron’s pledges. “I think that Macron wants to back up his words with something concrete. But the question is that the lead ram can bring the flock in one direction, but the flock may prefer to head to the slaughterhouse.”

Mujtaba Rahman:

Macron today produced maps of a possible Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the West to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks with French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on French involvement in the conflict.

Macron summoned leaders of all French parliamentary parties to talks at the Elysée Palace to explain his controversial remarks last week in which he said the deployment of western troops in Ukraine should no longer be excluded. Participants in the meeting said Macron had explained his theory of “strategic ambivalence”—keeping Moscow guessing. Since Vladimir Putin clearly knew no limits, he said, the West had been handing him an advantage by fixing or “interiorizing” limits of its own.

But Opposition leaders of the Far Right, Right and Left said they had been left worried and unconvinced by Macron’s approach (which has also been rejected by the US, UK, Germany and several other NATO countries). Jordan Bardella, the president and de facto Number Two of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National, said threatening to send French soldiers “to fight a nuclear power like Russia is irresponsible and extremely dangerous for world peace.” The Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel said that he feared that Macron was “ready to engage in a bellicose escalation which would be very dangerous.”

Today’s meeting was the prelude to a two-day parliamentary debate next week to discuss a ten-year defense pact signed by Macron and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, last month. Macron told French journalists on Wednesday that he hoped this debate would “make it clear” which political forces in France supported Ukraine and which supported Russia.

Elysée officials deny domestic politics and June EU elections have influenced Macron’s new rhetoric on Ukraine. They say he is driven by the difficult situation on front line, Navalny’s murder, and Kremlin talk of a possible attempt on his own life when he visits Kyiv later this month.

Macron is, however, evidently hoping the new rhetoric will embarrass Le Pen, who had a long history of Putin worship before the Ukraine invasion. The government’s spokeswoman, Prisca Thevenot, says it is “quite evident” that Le Pen, unlike Macron, is not “committed to Russia’s defeat.”

How a deepfake launched a rumor about a plan to assassinate Emmanuel Macron in Ukraine. This is in French, but you can set it to show you English subtitles. I noticed this was being widely shared on Twitter by the kind of people Elon Musk finds very persuasive.

With Sweden in NATO, the alliance has new ways to strike Russia’s prime targets.

Nima Khorrami, an analyst at the Arctic Institute, [said] that Sweden’s membership “extends NATO’s missile range, putting strategic locations in Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg within reach. This adds another layer of deterrence against potential Russian aggression, as NATO forces can effectively respond to threats in real time.”

St. Petersburg, Russia’s second city, has long been the base of Russia’s Baltic fleet. Kaliningrad was formerly named Königsberg and was seized by the Soviet Union from Germany in World War II. It extends Russia’s capacity to project its power into the Baltic region, containing air defenses, electronic warfare units to scramble GPS systems, cruise missiles, and more. It would likely play a key role in any Russian attempt to attack the Suwalki Gap and Baltic nations. “Degrading Russian assets there is critical for NATO operations in the area. That would, in particular, need a saturation of Russian air defense systems. … Sweden is important for both safely receiving NATO troops and capabilities and by being hard to target for Russian forces, while being close enough to Kaliningrad to launch long-range precision capabilities. At its closest, Sweden is 280 kilometers away from Kaliningrad which is a good distance.”

★ Sweden joins “NATO lake” on Moscow’s doorstep. All countries with shores on Baltic Sea except Russia are now part of western defense alliance. (An excellent article.)

Sweden finally joined NATO on Thursday, meaning the western defense alliance has nearly ringed the entire Baltic Sea, a significant oil trading route for Russia and home to one of its fleets. “The Baltic Sea becomes a NATO lake,” said Krišjānis Kariņš, Latvia’s foreign minister and a self-declared candidate to head NATO. As it formally becomes the 32nd member of the US-led alliance during a ceremony in Washington, Sweden brings with it the mid-Baltic island of Gotland—dubbed a “giant aircraft carrier”—which makes the defense of the three small Baltic states easier.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has announced plans to reorganize Russia’s military and beef up forces in the region to “neutralize threats” he said arose from Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said last week that “all the long decades of good neighborliness have gone to dust” because the US military “has the right to do whatever they want in Sweden—visit any site and create any of their own.” Russia’s response would include “additional systems that will be appropriate to the threats that could appear on the territory of Finland and Sweden,” he said.

Russia’s interests in the Baltic Sea are both economic and military. St. Petersburg, which has substantial oil refineries, ships its exports via the Gulf of Finland through the Baltic Sea. The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, wedged between Poland and Lithuania, is home to Russia’s Baltic fleet and nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles. Russia has threatened to change the region’s “non-nuclear” status in the past but has not said whether the weapons carry nuclear warheads.

In case of a conflict, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania up until now would have relied almost exclusively on securing reinforcements and supplies via the Suwałki Gap, a narrow and vulnerable 100-kilometer strip separating the Baltics from Poland. By joining NATO, Sweden provides new possibilities via the sea, as Gotland is less than 200 kilometers from the Latvian coast. “It reduces the vulnerability of the Baltics through only the Suwałki Gap. The entire security of the region is made stronger because it makes the eastern Baltic less vulnerable,” said Kariņš. …

The Baltic states may be the biggest immediate beneficiaries from Sweden joining, with Stockholm set to send a battalion to join the multinational presence in Latvia. But the deepest changes over time are likely in the Nordic region itself. Cooperation between the four main countries—Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland—has long been close but is now set to become more intense. A taster was provided last year when the four Nordic air forces announced their intention to operate their fleet of about 230 fighter jets as one seamless operation, making it larger than the RAF in the UK or Germany’s air force. Already, Norwegian F-35 and Swedish Gripen fighter jets have practised landing on Finnish roads. ... “The airspace over the Scandinavian peninsula is important and always has been if you look at World War Two or the Cold War. If you control the airspace over the Nordics, you really have an advantage.”

NATO’s new map: Sweden officially joins alliance in blow to Russia.

Sweden’s inclusion in NATO will enhance the alliance’s strategic breadth and depth:

Sweden’s membership in NATO brings several advantages, key among them its comprehensive defense capabilities, strategic influence over the Baltic Sea and a robust defense industry. Expertise in navigating the Baltic Sea, particularly due to the strategic significance of the Swedish island of Gotland, enhances NATO’s control in the region. This is increasingly vital in the context of any potential conflict with Russia. Sweden has the third-largest navy in the Baltic Sea after Russia and Germany. Together with the air force, it will contribute to securing the transport of troops and materiel across the Baltic Sea.

Sweden’s contributions to NATO: Bolstering the alliance’s defense industry and air capabilities:

What Sweden brings to NATO. The traditionally neutral country has built a formidable military-industrial complex:

… It makes everything from Saab JAS 39 Gripen single-engine supersonic fighters to Carl Gustav recoilless rifles, AT4 shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons, Gotland-class submarines, and RBS15 anti-ship missiles. It also cooperates with other military producers, with one example being the Stridsvagn 122, the Swedish version of the German Leopard 2 tank.

★ Sweden and Finland add both muscle and risk to NATO. In a bigger NATO with waning leadership, new members could bolster a political appetite for dialogue with Russia. The alliance must prepare all members to reinforce a collective defense vision:

… worryingly, unlike in past crises, time is not on NATO’s side. China and the Global South are growing, and Russia is on a war footing. The United States is wavering; Germany lacks a geopolitical compass; France talks of Europe but delivers more words than action; and Eastern European allies know that “Europe” cannot extend deterrence to protect them.

Sooner or later, some allies will be tempted to open a dialogue with Russia—to take the pressure off and buy Europe time, and to bow to the reality that without the United States, Europe must recognize limits to its community. Such a dash for dialogue would be both a reversal of NATO’s Harmel legacy and a dire sign of waning political will.

(Although the author, Sten Rynning, raises reasonable points, I’m not worried that Finland and Sweden will undermine the alliance by wavering in their resolve toward Russia. It’s the US I’m worried about.)

Sweden’s membership will strengthen NATO, but the delays associated with its accession has revealed several concerns about the credibility and future of the alliance. … In the short term, the alliance will want to complete the work on preparing for the defense of its eastern members. In the longer term, the key question that needs to be settled is that of a more global role for NATO: Is it merely the security guarantor of Europe or the bedrock for the wider defense of the West and the liberal international order?

Also notable:

★ Escalation Management in Ukraine. Assessing the US Response to Russia’s Manipulation of Risk:

… As failures on the battlefield and domestic criticism intensified, US intelligence overheard a conversation among senior Russian military commanders about when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin was reportedly not part of these conversations. That intelligence was circulated inside the US government in mid-October. Almost at the same time, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, in one of his calls with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, accused Ukraine of planning to use a “dirty bomb.” The vagueness of the threats along with an increase in their frequency deepened concern that Russia could be manipulating risk in the face of a tactical defeat. The available evidence cannot establish whether Russian generals were deliberately manipulating risk, as Schelling would have recommended, but the effects were similar in many ways.

As tensions grew, the United States made multiple efforts to clarify and reduce the uncertainties directly with Moscow. In a long phone call, General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, discussed Russia’s doctrine that governed the use of nuclear weapons. Gerasimov made clear that Russia would use nuclear weapons only in the narrow set of enabling conditions made clear in Russia’s strategic doctrine. That shared understanding helped to reduce somewhat the uncertainty between the two most senior generals in Moscow and Washington. In this case, doctrine played a larger role in reducing uncertainty than strategic analysts expect. Gerasimov’s willingness to put some boundaries around these conditions simultaneously reduced uncertainty and made a threat to use nuclear force more credible should these conditions occur. At least at that time, although the Russian army was under pressure, Russia’s military leaders chose to focus on reducing uncertainty rather than on manipulating risk through a threat that left something to chance.

Claire—this is a fascinating study. It helps—very much—to explain Biden’s decisions about which weapons to send and when. Reading it made me feel more sympathy for his decision-making.

Estonian Defense Forces Colonel: The Russian Armed Forces are still holding the initiative on the ground, and the tempo of their operations have begun to pick up again.

★ How a little-used parliamentary maneuver could decide the fate of Ukraine funding, and perhaps the war. House members are trying to bypass Speaker Mike Johnson by forcing a floor vote on the aid package via a discharge petition:

Oleksandr Batalov, a 39-year-old member of Ukraine’s armed forces, says he would not have lost his leg on the battlefield if his country’s armed forces had more artillery. The delayed flow of weaponry to Kyiv meant the Ukrainian forces couldn’t reach him and evacuate him quickly enough to save his leg. Instead, he lay wounded for more than six hours as bullets whizzed above his head. …

Batalov traveled to Washington this week as part of a delegation of Ukrainian veterans to address officials in the Pentagon and lawmakers in Congress … Johnson did not meet with the Ukrainian veterans due to a tight schedule. Johnson did not respond to requests for comment.

… “You just can’t do this and think you can get it all done in a week or two,” O’Donnell said. “They need to get all of the actors on the outside, the interest groups and everybody else on the outside, to put together a plan to lobby these members on this stuff. To get somebody to sign a discharge petition, you’ve got to have your targets and then you’ve got to lobby the party,” he added. “You need time. You need a whip team for the Republicans and a whip team for the Democrats.” So far, neither McGovern nor Fitzpatrick are attempting to whip votes. And even getting a vote in the House isn’t a silver-bullet solution. If one of these bills gets enough signatures and passes the chamber, it must head back to the Senate for approval. That would further lengthen the process.

Lithuanian intelligence: Russia preparing for long confrontation with NATO:

… The report noted that the Kremlin has initiated a major reform of the armed forces, which expands Russia’s military capabilities in the Baltic Sea region. Planned structural and leadership changes have already begun, with some of them being implemented in Kaliningrad and western Russia. “This reform is a long-term project that requires significant resources and is expected to take up to ten years,” representatives of Lithuanian intelligence noted.

They stated that the overall pace and scope of the reform depend directly on the course, duration and outcomes of military actions in Ukraine. It was also noted that Russia has sufficient financial, human, material and technical resources to continue hostilities with similar intensity at least in the short term, with intelligence estimating up to two years.

Thirty years ago, Estonian President Lennart Meri delivered a speech at a formal ball in Hamburg. Vladimir Putin, at the time relatively unknown, was in the audience. He stormed out in fury. Three decades later, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas returned to give the keynote address:

… From a subjective point of view it is understandable that the breakdown of the Soviet Union caused the West to feel a kind of triumph; it is also understandable, subjectively, that the West concentrated all its hopes and empathies on the true or ostensible forces of reform in Russia. This attitude, however, has brought the West to a risk of wishful thinking.

These are not actually my words. These words were spoken 30 years ago in this very room by Lennart Meri, Estonia’s first president after we escaped from the Soviet prison and restored our independence. … What exactly did President Meri say that so upset Putin? It is clear by now that his speech reads like a prophecy of what has gone on since then. Putin’s storming out revealed his true colors, very early on. Many just didn’t get that message, however, or didn’t want to pay it any attention. …

I come here almost directly from the Munich Security Conference. There, President Zelensky rightly posed the main question we should be asking ourselves now: “Please do not ask Ukraine when the war will end. Ask yourself why Putin is still able to continue it.”

We need to answer that question—not just in words but actions.

What I missed in Munich this time around was a spirit of triumph.

Estonia’s mantra during our Singing Revolution within the Soviet prison was: One day we will win, no matter what (Estonian: Ükskord me võidame niikuinii). This is what we all should be calling for at the top of our voice, for Ukraine, and for ourselves. Without real belief, no real action will follow. It’s a losing game to build your strategy upon pessimism.

… Fear is the trap that Putin has set up against all of us in the Free World. Threats by Russian leaders and images of nuclear explosions on Russian state TV are aimed to scare our people and influence our decisions. By sowing fear, they want to change the perception of war in our societies. By getting rid of political opponents—as Alexei Navalny's death tragically reminds us-- they want to kill all hope.

I keep receiving questions about what Putin would do if Russia loses. My answer: We should worry more about what he will do if Russia wins. And it makes no sense to keep asking if Estonia is afraid, or if Poland is next. Don’t forget, that question really is one asking whether NATO will be next. We all have skin in the game. But if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, there is no need to ask this question any more. So let's not blur our focus, but do everything to support Ukraine in pushing Russia back to its own territory. Let’s not repeat the mistakes of the 1930s. Our mantra should be that defense is not escalation. Resistance does not provoke Russia—weakness does.

… We must tell the truth to ourselves. The truth is that Ukraine will run out of ammunition unless we come up with quick deliveries. Long-term commitments are important, but it is also a fact of war that the side having the most ammunition will win.

Unity is our hardest currency. Together we can help Ukraine win this war. We have the resources, the economic might, the expertise. Our strength outweighs Russia’s. Let’s not be afraid of our own power.

Dictators also know that democracies have elections. They think that makes us weak, but if we have a clear goal of victory and a winning strategy in place, our democracies are also our strength and force. This means our focus should also be on making sure Ukrainians receive help regardless of party-political distractions and realities within our own countries. Regardless of the comings and goings of elections. For that, we need to have our public on board, so it is highly important to keep them informed of how our adversaries act and what they think—in short; of what the threats around us are.

… has become increasingly clear that the front line of Putin’s so-called shadow war runs through the hearts of our own democracies: universities, parliaments, media and other institutions. The Kremlin’s disinformation is reaching wide audiences via social media; it sits literally within our pockets, phones and apps. The aim of Russia's influence operations is to influence democratic decision-making—including decisions we make at the ballot-boxes.

… To return to where I started—this room, thirty years ago. Listen to Putin’s footfalls as he stormed out. Really listen. Are we now going to let him walk all over Ukraine? Are we going to let dictators call the shots? Or are we going to finally learn from history? ...

A letter to Mike Johnson from the speakers of the parliaments of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Estonia, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, the Netherlands, North-Macedonia, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Ukraine:

Dear Mr. Speaker,

In recent days, a solemn anniversary loomed large, commemorating the two-year mark since Russia and its dictatorial regime invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked and unjustified act of aggression. This invasion has obviously endangered not only the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, but has also challenged the entire democratic world, jeopardizing the security in the whole European and Euro-Atlantic area.

Over these past two years, the countries that remain committed to our shared values and believe in a world based on rules and respect to the UN Charter have united to help Ukraine and its people in repelling the brutal aggression that is claiming hundreds of lives every day. Our joint assistance has helped to stop the aggressor and liberate a large share of previously occupied territories of Ukraine. We welcome the indispensable and prominent role of the United States in this joint effort. The US has consistently demonstrated strong bipartisan support for Ukraine’s victory in its fight against the Russian invasion.

We also observe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a significant impact on the development of the security situation in the world. We see that while Iran and North Korea have begun to provide direct military support to Russia, the criminal actions of the Kremlin regime have inspired other dictatorial and undemocratic regimes, become a catalyst for the escalation of old conflicts, and put us on the brink of new confrontations. Today, the world is rapidly moving towards the destruction of the sustainable world order.

We see it as our responsibility and our task to prevent this descent into chaos and impunity, and therefore our countries are committed to further increasing our support to Ukraine and its defense forces, seeing it as a considerable investment in our individual and collective security. The axis of evil must be defeated, and all perpetrators brought to justice. This will serve as a significant deterrent to further conflicts and will return a sense of control and security to our peoples.

We believe that thanks to your personal leadership, the Congress will demonstrate historic bipartisan unity in support of the collective efforts to assist Ukraine; therefore, we ask you to take the next step toward adopting a historic decision on HR 815 that will secure US assistance to foreign countries and provide Ukraine with the necessary funds to continue its fight.

With faith in our common democratic values, sincerely yours.

I hate Mike Johnson in a way I’ve never hated a politician before. He is condemning the brave, valiant Ukrainians to rape, murder, and servitude. He is ensuring a wider European war—a wider global war—in which countless young Americans will die. I look at my nephew, who will be of draft age in a few years, and I think—actually, I don’t think I should finish this sentence.

A spooky thing happened today. Zoom’s AI assistant sent this to me:

Meeting summary for Claire Berlinski’s Zoom Meeting (03/08/2024)

Quick recap

Claire warned about the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO and urged Europe to prepare for this eventuality within the next three years. She expressed concerns about the potential loss in a war against Vladimir Putin and the severe consequences that could arise.

Summary

Russian Threat: Europe’s Three-Year Warning

Claire issued a warning about the potential threat of a Russian attack on NATO, suggesting that Europe only has three years to prepare for this eventuality. She indicated that it could lose a war to Vladimir Putin, painting a dire picture of the potential consequences.

Next steps

Next steps were not generated due to insufficient transcript.

What’s wrong with that, you may be asking? Here’s what’s wrong: I never had that conversation. With anyone. I wasn’t speaking to John, or anyone else, at the time this conversation supposedly took place. Yes, I’m certain of that.

Make of that what you will.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s discussion:

* Vladislav Davidzon joins us to give us the expert view on Transnistria. The situation sounds more minatory than John and I initially thought: There may be a purpose to the provocation that goes beyond, “distracting NATO.”

* Welcome, Sweden!

* Boo, Germany! What’s wrong with you?

* The Sudan catastrophe is apocalyptic, no one has the bandwidth to deal with it, and now Russia, Iran, and Ukraine are involved, too.

* It’s Vlad’s birthday! Happy Birthday, Vlad!

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s discussion:

* Vladislav Davidzon joins us to give us the expert view on Transnistria. The situation sounds more minatory than John and I initially thought: There may be a purpose to the provocation that goes beyond, “distracting NATO.”

* Welcome, Sweden!

* Boo, Germany! What’s wrong with you?

* The Sudan catastrophe is apocalyptic, no one has the bandwidth to deal with it, and now Russia, Iran, and Ukraine are involved, too.

* It’s Vlad’s birthday! Happy Birthday, Vlad!

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

We still have no name. I’m getting worried about this.

Sorry, Scott! Not only did I blank on your last name—it came back to me, at least!—we just didn’t love the name you suggested. We’re looking for something that clearly explains what it is and why you should listen to it in about two catchy and clever words. (I like the name “GLOBAL EYES,” for example, because it tells you what it is and it’s a pun.)

TRANS-NISS-TRIA

(Say it three times fast: I challenge you.)

* WARNING: Transnistria may organize a referendum on annexation to Russia to support Russian hybrid operation against Moldova.

* Transnistria appeals to Russia for “protection,” reviving fears for Moldova breakaway region. US says it is closely watching situation in key region on Ukraine border after officials asked Moscow for help against the government in Moldova.

* Is Putin opening a second front in Europe? The chaos in Transnistria is ripe for exploitation.

* Moldova rebuffs Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement on Transnistria, says it has no right to lecture anybody on democracy.

* Russia can’t reach a pro-Russian region in Moldova easily—but there are ways it can cause trouble. “They could disrupt power from Transnistria to the rest of Moldova (that already happened at one point last year). Further, gas transit from Russia to Transnistria via Ukraine is up in the air because there’s a good chance a Gazprom-Naftogaz transit deal doesn’t get renewed when it expires at the end of the year. So there’s reason to put pressure on. With Moldovan pro-Western President Maia Sandu facing re-election later this year, Putin sees an opportunity to make the regime maximally uncomfortable.”

ISRAEL AND HAMAS

* Israel must decide where it’s going—and who should lead it there, by Ehud Barak.

* Biden administration skeptical of Hamas’s desire for a deal.

After it vetoed three ceasefire resolutions in the UN Security Council, the US presented its own ceasefire resolution, one that would involve the release of the hostages. Hamas objected to the American proposal. Russia is expected to veto it because it condemns Hamas. America is said to be tired of vetoing.

* Hamas official: “We don’t know which of the hostages are dead or alive.”

* Hamas appears to reject deal. Mediators are said to be taking a days-long pause to build trust. Israeli officials are increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of reaching a hostage and truce deal before Ramadan.

* Sinwar’s goal: Turning Ramadan into a regional October 7. Hamas’s leader wants to set the region ablaze during the holy month. This is the reason—or at least one of the reasons—that he is obstructing the talks on a deal for the release of the captives. After all, a deal would entail a lull that would lower the flames, deprive Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah of the excuse to attack Israel, and reduce the fervor and tension across the region.

* Vice President Harris’s speech proves the importance of Gantz’s visit. (This seems a very naive editorial to me. They seem to think that a bit of time with Gantz will set Harris straight. They’re wrong.)

* David Cameron: The UK is losing patience on lack of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

* We need to talk about the two-state solution.

* Hamas says a permanent ceasefire must be in place before any deal is implemented for the release of the remaining 134 hostages, in a statement that seemed to run counter to optimism from Washington that an agreement was possible before Ramadan.

* The US conducted its second airdrop of food over Gaza as its officials continued to hammer Israel over hunger in the enclave and Biden said he was doing everything possible to help Palestinians there.

* The IDF says troops have captured hundreds of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives in an ongoing raid in Khan Younis.

* IDF reveals 450 UNRWA workers affiliated with Hamas in damning audio. A recording of a call showed an UNRWA teacher describing his role in the October 7 attack. “We have female captives. I caught one,” the male voice is heard saying in Arabic. A man on a second call, alleged to be a Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist who Israel also claimed was an UNRWA teacher, is heard saying, “I’m inside with the Jews.” 

See also:

Gaza residents turn on Sinwar:

Despite fear of Hamas reprisals among Gaza Strip residents, unusual criticism has emerged on social media in response to a video published by the IDF on Tuesday evening, showing the terrorist group's leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar fleeing with his children through an underground tunnel under the city of Khan Younis in the territory’s south.

“This rat, Yahya Sinwar, quickly ran to hide underground,” wrote Mustafa Asfur, a resident of the Strip, on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). Asfur has a significant number of followers on the platform, and the IDF Arabic spokesperson’s account was quick to share his comments. “He built tunnels to hide in for him, his children, his wife and those who surround them. He left the men, women and children of his people to struggle with death above ground, while he enjoyed himself with his family below.

… “Didn’t you say that one day you would go home on foot, without guards, and challenge the occupation to assassinate you? Where are you today? The occupation is at your doorstep—so go out and confront them, instead of dying while you’re underground like a rat. Hell, you are a cowardly leader who sacrifices his country and his people for himself.”

Another reaction to the video that generated much attention on X came from a Gaza resident named Ghassan. “My dear Sinwar, you and your family are hiding while the rest of the people are dying as usual. Oh right, I forgot that UNRWA is the one who is required to protect the people. Curse be upon the cleanest among you,” he wrote, referring to an interview senior Hamas figure Musa Abu Marzouk gave to Russian network RT in Arabic in late October in which he said that the elaborate subterranean tunnel system the group constructed under Gaza was meant to protect its fighters—and not the residents of the Strip. “It is the responsibility of the UN to protect them,” Abu Marzouk told the interviewer.

Wissam Al-Khalidi, a member of the Palestinian National Council, also expressed his dismay at the video. “This psychopath, called Sinwar, is hiding in the tunnels with his family while there are over 2 million innocent souls above the surface of the destroyed earth. Does this satisfy Allah, Sinwar?” he wrote.

* “Go away, Sinwar!” Gaza protests swell as crowds rally against Hamas. During a protest in Jabaliya in northern Gaza, demonstrators voiced anger against Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh and terror leader Yahya Sinwar. While Palestinian media is trying to hush the growing popular resentment against Hamas and its leader Yahya Sinwar in the Gaza Strip, footage of desperate Gazans calling for the downfall of the terrorist organization continues to surface. In one clip from the protest in Jabaliya, protesters can be heard calling out, “Sinwar, Haniyeh, the people are the victims. Down with Hamas! Down with Hamas!”

While Hamas leader is deciding on hostage deal, his niece gave birth in Israeli hospital.

Whoever controls aid to Gaza undermines Hamas’s rule, so why is Netanyahu dragging his feet?

Could October 7 have been prevented? The head of the research division of the Intelligence Branch of the IDF, Amit Sa’ar, said in an interview with KAN news that just before the attack, he wrote an emergency letter warning that Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah saw it as an opportune moment to attack because of the internal conflict in Israel and the IDF’s readiness level. He also said that senior Iranian officials had been pressuring Hamas and telling them the moment to attack Israel had arrived. After reading the letter, the head of the Intelligence Branch and the chief of staff gave Saar permission to send the letter to Netanyahu. Then the massacre occurred. The letter was never sent.

Biden aides tell Gantz that the Gaza aid convoy disaster shows why Israel needs viable postwar plans:

Top aides to US President Joe Biden told visiting war cabinet minister Benny Gantz during meetings this week that the recent disaster in northern Gaza in which dozens of desperate Palestinians were killed while rushing a convoy of humanitarian aid highlighted for Washington how Israel has failed to properly plan for the war, two US officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday.

Last Thursday’s incident would not have happened if Israel were doing more to ensure humanitarian aid was reaching civilians, according to the US officials. The pair spoke on condition of anonymity regarding the messages that US Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, White House Mideast czar Brett McGurk, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stressed to Gantz during closed-door meetings on Monday and Tuesday.

The US officials argued Tuesday that the administrative vacuum in northern Gaza that was exposed by the deadly stampede offers a window into what the entire Strip will look like after the war, if Israel won’t put forward a viable alternative to the Hamas rule it’s seeking to dismantle.

The Biden administration has sought to advance a broader regional initiative that would see Gaza rehabilitated by neighboring Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which would also normalize relations with Israel on the condition that Jerusalem take steps to establish a time-bound, irreversible pathway for a Palestinian state led by a reformed Palestinian Authority governing over both the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has all but rejected the proposal, declaring that he will not allow Gaza to become “Fatahstan” — a reference to PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s political party and highlighting his long-held effort to buck international efforts to establish a Palestinian state. Instead, he is seeking to install local clan leaders unaffiliated with Hamas or Fatah to provide services for Gazans instead of the terror group, while leaving Gaza politically cut off from the West Bank.

Israel has been engaging in discussions with clan leaders in Gaza, proposing that they assume administrative responsibilities and manage aid distribution. But the leaders in question aren’t keen:

Arab media sources reveal that only a select few leaders were open to considering the IDF’s proposal for aid management. Among them, two prominent clans have acknowledged some level of contact with Israeli authorities. “We are not willing to cooperate with the occupation on any issue,” said a member of one of the clans. Another clan member, who did not deny that his family had contact with the IDF, was concerned about potential Hamas reprisals against families accused of collaborating with Israel. “Some families are worried that the cease-fire will allow Hamas to settle scores with them.”

Hezbollah is getting stronger and its threat is growing: What can Israel do? Israel embraced diplomacy and the “reward” was thousands of rockets fired at northern Israel, 500 homes damaged, 80,000 people evacuated and a dozen people murdered by Hezbollah in the North:

An attack in northern Israel on Monday killed Patnibin Maxwell, a thirty-one year old from India working in Israel with a wife seven-months pregnant, India Today reported. Nine others were wounded. “The incident happened near Margaliot, targeting agricultural workers, Israel confirmed,” the report said. It’s not known if they were the target, but Hezbollah’s attacks are calculating.  In addition to thousands of unguided rockets, it has also used anti-tank guided missiles to target many specific locations on the border. It has damaged 500 buildings in this war, since October 8 in support of the Hamas massacre the day before.

IDF general outraged over safety failures. Maj.-Gen. (res) Itzhak Brik excoriated the IDF’s performance after Israeli soldiers were killed by the detonation of explosive charges while performing a search operation. The knives are clearly out for Netanyahu and the IDF command—as they should be. I have no way to assess what he’s saying here, but it doesn’t sound good at all:

“The IDF went into combat without pre-planned operations, creating an absurd situation where each unit decides for itself how to enter suspected houses. This happens frequently and there’s no learning from mistakes. The events keep repeating, and apparently, there hasn’t been practice for safe entry.

“This is an unprecedented scandal in Israel’s wars, a complete neglect in operational discipline. Every company commander does as he chooses when the higher ranks are disconnected time after time. This is happening because of the malicious negligence of the army’s senior command, a disgrace and a shame. This is not how you win a war.

“Today we are losing assets in the northern Gaza Strip that we only gained two months ago at the heavy price of casualties and injuries. Hamas fighters have returned in droves. The public doesn’t understand that if this continues, we will not achieve the suppression of Hamas, we will not secure the safe return of our captives, and hundreds of people will be killed. I have been in the wars of Israel and have not encountered such a severe organizational failure. This cannot go on.

“Since the IDF entered combat without pre-prepared plans, with reserve units that haven’t trained for years, on an urban terrain that they are not familiar with ... an absurd situation was created. Each unit decided on its own procedure of how to clear urban areas, how to enter houses suspected of being booby-trapped, and there are many units that do not adhere to basic safety guidelines.

“These incidents repeat themselves. Just on Friday, IDF troops entered a booby-trapped building, and apparently no safety procedure was carried out. Three dead and 14 wounded, five of them seriously. Commanders decide for themselves how to act according to their understandings without any briefing from their superiors, while the upper ranks are completely disconnected, allowing this to happen again and again.

“Soldiers are killed and severely wounded wholesale; this is not a twist of fate. This happens because of the criminal negligence and laziness of the senior military echelon. For example, 21 soldiers were killed inside a house while engineering troops prepared the house for detonation. This happened several other times. In two words: shame and disgrace! This is not how you win a war!

“Today, we are losing assets in the northern Gaza Strip, areas that just two months ago the IDF captured at a heavy cost. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant already declared two months ago that we have absolute control over these territories, above ground and in the tunnels beneath. Only two months have passed, and we are losing complete control in northern Gaza.

“Hamas terrorists have returned en masse through the tunnels to the north of the Strip where the IDF evacuated all its soldiers from and did not replace them with reinforcements due to lack of standard operating procedures. Hamas is again controlling Gazans, rebuilding its capabilities in the area. Our soldiers conduct raids on them, and they get killed and wounded by explosives and traps that Hamas had prepared. The majority of our dead and seriously wounded are not wounded from face-to-face combat with Hamas but from explosives and traps. In other words: Months after we captured the northern Strip, we are losing it again.

“The public does not understand that if this continues, we will reach a terrible and menacing situation: We will not dismantle of Hamas, we will not safely return the hostages, and hundreds more of our people will be killed. Every day we go to the cemetery, every day there are people seriously wounded, who have lost their legs and eyes.

“For 20 years, the Iranians and their proxies Hezbollah, in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, have been building an envelope of 250,000 missiles and rockets around the State of Israel. We’re talking about a regional war on a scale of 3,000-4,000 rockets and missiles per day, including missiles aimed at population centers, water infrastructure, power lines, and economic centers in the heart of the country: the Gush Dan area, Haifa Bay, Beersheba, and Jerusalem. Since 2002, our chiefs of staff have decided that the major wars are over, we have peace with Egypt and Jordan, and there is no need for a large army, so they cut the army by six divisions and basically brought it down to almost nothing.

“They talk about a small and hi-tech army, but it isn't even hi-tech, because they didn’t implement the technology. The reservists were not trained, and they also didn’t maintain the equipment depots ... The next regional war, if it breaks out against Hezbollah, will be in five arenas simultaneously ... and we are a tiny army incapable of being in two places at once.

“We can’t wait for the day after. The day after is a war that could last months and years. We need to enlarge the IDF now, and no one is dealing with it. The same political and military leadership that led to this terrible chaos are the ones not dealing with what will happen in the future.”

We’re living in the most worrying period for Jews since World War II, yet Netanyahu is politicking while Israel burns.

Opinion: The condemnation of Israel for the deadly stampede that killed multiple Palestinians illustrates the selective fact-checking by world leaders, revealing attempts to turn Hamas’ actions into a narrative of Palestinian victimhood:

… Incredibly, a surreal scene eluded the eyes of the critics: IDF tanks and troops safeguarded the Palestinian civilians while Hamas did everything it could to prevent the movement, fearing it would compromise its fighting against the IDF. Hamas used roadblocks to stop the movement, and its snipers and operatives even targeted their own population with fire and IEDs. Hamas’ Ministry of Communication accused fleeing Gazans of “colluding with a second Nakba.”

Disinformation attempting to sabotage Israel’s war on terrorism is nothing new in this war: the same goes for the claim that 30,000 Palestinians were killed by Israel in Gaza, of which 70 percent are women and children, widely echoed by the UN, the EU and some media outlets—only these figures are provided by Hamas’ fictitious “Ministry of Health.”

… This pattern simply keeps repeating, yet those of us who don’t usually keep track or pay close attention might get lost in the daily spiral of news to be able to detect it. The “100 UN aid workers” killed by Israel were, in fact, Hamas operatives in disguise; many of the claimed “94 journalists” turned out to be known Hamas or PIJ affiliates and operatives, such as Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Washah and the senior PIJ operatives whose salary slips were published by the IDF.

Hamas savvily identifies golden PR opportunities and leverages them, knowing which strings to pluck, and the receiving end of that music happily resonates its tune. …

Every world leader, journalist and social media user needs to be acutely aware of Hamas’ and Iran’s clever disinformation methods, and take caution. The easy choice is to ride on the already-provided track. The less-than-obvious choice, however, happens to be the right one: the choice to seriously question information coming out of Gaza, and recognize the real danger to the safety and security of the democratic world – terrorism and the Russia-China-Iran axis. Extra fact-checking and caution against disinformation are of the essence in this war—even when it comes to Israel.

Yahya Sinwar and his brother, Muhammad, military leader Muhammad Deif, and Marwan Issa, Hamas’s deputy military commander, seem to have made the decision to launch the attack without consulting other Hamas leaders or the political bureau, leaving the rest of the leadership uninformed. This has led to internal discord within Hamas.

On social media, there has been a 1,200 percent surge over the past year in posts with antisemitic content. In November-December 2023, most were detected on Twitter (68 percent). On TikTok, Facebook, Telegram and Instagram there were far fewer cases of antisemitism. 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

We still have no name. I’m getting worried about this.

Sorry, Scott! Not only did I blank on your last name—it came back to me, at least!—we just didn’t love the name you suggested. We’re looking for something that clearly explains what it is and why you should listen to it in about two catchy and clever words. (I like the name “GLOBAL EYES,” for example, because it tells you what it is and it’s a pun.)

TRANS-NISS-TRIA

(Say it three times fast: I challenge you.)

* WARNING: Transnistria may organize a referendum on annexation to Russia to support Russian hybrid operation against Moldova.

* Transnistria appeals to Russia for “protection,” reviving fears for Moldova breakaway region. US says it is closely watching situation in key region on Ukraine border after officials asked Moscow for help against the government in Moldova.

* Is Putin opening a second front in Europe? The chaos in Transnistria is ripe for exploitation.

* Moldova rebuffs Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement on Transnistria, says it has no right to lecture anybody on democracy.

* Russia can’t reach a pro-Russian region in Moldova easily—but there are ways it can cause trouble. “They could disrupt power from Transnistria to the rest of Moldova (that already happened at one point last year). Further, gas transit from Russia to Transnistria via Ukraine is up in the air because there’s a good chance a Gazprom-Naftogaz transit deal doesn’t get renewed when it expires at the end of the year. So there’s reason to put pressure on. With Moldovan pro-Western President Maia Sandu facing re-election later this year, Putin sees an opportunity to make the regime maximally uncomfortable.”

ISRAEL AND HAMAS

* Israel must decide where it’s going—and who should lead it there, by Ehud Barak.

* Biden administration skeptical of Hamas’s desire for a deal.

After it vetoed three ceasefire resolutions in the UN Security Council, the US presented its own ceasefire resolution, one that would involve the release of the hostages. Hamas objected to the American proposal. Russia is expected to veto it because it condemns Hamas. America is said to be tired of vetoing.

* Hamas official: “We don’t know which of the hostages are dead or alive.”

* Hamas appears to reject deal. Mediators are said to be taking a days-long pause to build trust. Israeli officials are increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of reaching a hostage and truce deal before Ramadan.

* Sinwar’s goal: Turning Ramadan into a regional October 7. Hamas’s leader wants to set the region ablaze during the holy month. This is the reason—or at least one of the reasons—that he is obstructing the talks on a deal for the release of the captives. After all, a deal would entail a lull that would lower the flames, deprive Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah of the excuse to attack Israel, and reduce the fervor and tension across the region.

* Vice President Harris’s speech proves the importance of Gantz’s visit. (This seems a very naive editorial to me. They seem to think that a bit of time with Gantz will set Harris straight. They’re wrong.)

* David Cameron: The UK is losing patience on lack of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

* We need to talk about the two-state solution.

* Hamas says a permanent ceasefire must be in place before any deal is implemented for the release of the remaining 134 hostages, in a statement that seemed to run counter to optimism from Washington that an agreement was possible before Ramadan.

* The US conducted its second airdrop of food over Gaza as its officials continued to hammer Israel over hunger in the enclave and Biden said he was doing everything possible to help Palestinians there.

* The IDF says troops have captured hundreds of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives in an ongoing raid in Khan Younis.

* IDF reveals 450 UNRWA workers affiliated with Hamas in damning audio. A recording of a call showed an UNRWA teacher describing his role in the October 7 attack. “We have female captives. I caught one,” the male voice is heard saying in Arabic. A man on a second call, alleged to be a Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist who Israel also claimed was an UNRWA teacher, is heard saying, “I’m inside with the Jews.” 

See also:

Gaza residents turn on Sinwar:

Despite fear of Hamas reprisals among Gaza Strip residents, unusual criticism has emerged on social media in response to a video published by the IDF on Tuesday evening, showing the terrorist group's leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar fleeing with his children through an underground tunnel under the city of Khan Younis in the territory’s south.

“This rat, Yahya Sinwar, quickly ran to hide underground,” wrote Mustafa Asfur, a resident of the Strip, on social media platform X (formerly Twitter). Asfur has a significant number of followers on the platform, and the IDF Arabic spokesperson’s account was quick to share his comments. “He built tunnels to hide in for him, his children, his wife and those who surround them. He left the men, women and children of his people to struggle with death above ground, while he enjoyed himself with his family below.

… “Didn’t you say that one day you would go home on foot, without guards, and challenge the occupation to assassinate you? Where are you today? The occupation is at your doorstep—so go out and confront them, instead of dying while you’re underground like a rat. Hell, you are a cowardly leader who sacrifices his country and his people for himself.”

Another reaction to the video that generated much attention on X came from a Gaza resident named Ghassan. “My dear Sinwar, you and your family are hiding while the rest of the people are dying as usual. Oh right, I forgot that UNRWA is the one who is required to protect the people. Curse be upon the cleanest among you,” he wrote, referring to an interview senior Hamas figure Musa Abu Marzouk gave to Russian network RT in Arabic in late October in which he said that the elaborate subterranean tunnel system the group constructed under Gaza was meant to protect its fighters—and not the residents of the Strip. “It is the responsibility of the UN to protect them,” Abu Marzouk told the interviewer.

Wissam Al-Khalidi, a member of the Palestinian National Council, also expressed his dismay at the video. “This psychopath, called Sinwar, is hiding in the tunnels with his family while there are over 2 million innocent souls above the surface of the destroyed earth. Does this satisfy Allah, Sinwar?” he wrote.

* “Go away, Sinwar!” Gaza protests swell as crowds rally against Hamas. During a protest in Jabaliya in northern Gaza, demonstrators voiced anger against Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh and terror leader Yahya Sinwar. While Palestinian media is trying to hush the growing popular resentment against Hamas and its leader Yahya Sinwar in the Gaza Strip, footage of desperate Gazans calling for the downfall of the terrorist organization continues to surface. In one clip from the protest in Jabaliya, protesters can be heard calling out, “Sinwar, Haniyeh, the people are the victims. Down with Hamas! Down with Hamas!”

While Hamas leader is deciding on hostage deal, his niece gave birth in Israeli hospital.

Whoever controls aid to Gaza undermines Hamas’s rule, so why is Netanyahu dragging his feet?

Could October 7 have been prevented? The head of the research division of the Intelligence Branch of the IDF, Amit Sa’ar, said in an interview with KAN news that just before the attack, he wrote an emergency letter warning that Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah saw it as an opportune moment to attack because of the internal conflict in Israel and the IDF’s readiness level. He also said that senior Iranian officials had been pressuring Hamas and telling them the moment to attack Israel had arrived. After reading the letter, the head of the Intelligence Branch and the chief of staff gave Saar permission to send the letter to Netanyahu. Then the massacre occurred. The letter was never sent.

Biden aides tell Gantz that the Gaza aid convoy disaster shows why Israel needs viable postwar plans:

Top aides to US President Joe Biden told visiting war cabinet minister Benny Gantz during meetings this week that the recent disaster in northern Gaza in which dozens of desperate Palestinians were killed while rushing a convoy of humanitarian aid highlighted for Washington how Israel has failed to properly plan for the war, two US officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday.

Last Thursday’s incident would not have happened if Israel were doing more to ensure humanitarian aid was reaching civilians, according to the US officials. The pair spoke on condition of anonymity regarding the messages that US Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, White House Mideast czar Brett McGurk, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stressed to Gantz during closed-door meetings on Monday and Tuesday.

The US officials argued Tuesday that the administrative vacuum in northern Gaza that was exposed by the deadly stampede offers a window into what the entire Strip will look like after the war, if Israel won’t put forward a viable alternative to the Hamas rule it’s seeking to dismantle.

The Biden administration has sought to advance a broader regional initiative that would see Gaza rehabilitated by neighboring Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which would also normalize relations with Israel on the condition that Jerusalem take steps to establish a time-bound, irreversible pathway for a Palestinian state led by a reformed Palestinian Authority governing over both the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has all but rejected the proposal, declaring that he will not allow Gaza to become “Fatahstan” — a reference to PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s political party and highlighting his long-held effort to buck international efforts to establish a Palestinian state. Instead, he is seeking to install local clan leaders unaffiliated with Hamas or Fatah to provide services for Gazans instead of the terror group, while leaving Gaza politically cut off from the West Bank.

Israel has been engaging in discussions with clan leaders in Gaza, proposing that they assume administrative responsibilities and manage aid distribution. But the leaders in question aren’t keen:

Arab media sources reveal that only a select few leaders were open to considering the IDF’s proposal for aid management. Among them, two prominent clans have acknowledged some level of contact with Israeli authorities. “We are not willing to cooperate with the occupation on any issue,” said a member of one of the clans. Another clan member, who did not deny that his family had contact with the IDF, was concerned about potential Hamas reprisals against families accused of collaborating with Israel. “Some families are worried that the cease-fire will allow Hamas to settle scores with them.”

Hezbollah is getting stronger and its threat is growing: What can Israel do? Israel embraced diplomacy and the “reward” was thousands of rockets fired at northern Israel, 500 homes damaged, 80,000 people evacuated and a dozen people murdered by Hezbollah in the North:

An attack in northern Israel on Monday killed Patnibin Maxwell, a thirty-one year old from India working in Israel with a wife seven-months pregnant, India Today reported. Nine others were wounded. “The incident happened near Margaliot, targeting agricultural workers, Israel confirmed,” the report said. It’s not known if they were the target, but Hezbollah’s attacks are calculating.  In addition to thousands of unguided rockets, it has also used anti-tank guided missiles to target many specific locations on the border. It has damaged 500 buildings in this war, since October 8 in support of the Hamas massacre the day before.

IDF general outraged over safety failures. Maj.-Gen. (res) Itzhak Brik excoriated the IDF’s performance after Israeli soldiers were killed by the detonation of explosive charges while performing a search operation. The knives are clearly out for Netanyahu and the IDF command—as they should be. I have no way to assess what he’s saying here, but it doesn’t sound good at all:

“The IDF went into combat without pre-planned operations, creating an absurd situation where each unit decides for itself how to enter suspected houses. This happens frequently and there’s no learning from mistakes. The events keep repeating, and apparently, there hasn’t been practice for safe entry.

“This is an unprecedented scandal in Israel’s wars, a complete neglect in operational discipline. Every company commander does as he chooses when the higher ranks are disconnected time after time. This is happening because of the malicious negligence of the army’s senior command, a disgrace and a shame. This is not how you win a war.

“Today we are losing assets in the northern Gaza Strip that we only gained two months ago at the heavy price of casualties and injuries. Hamas fighters have returned in droves. The public doesn’t understand that if this continues, we will not achieve the suppression of Hamas, we will not secure the safe return of our captives, and hundreds of people will be killed. I have been in the wars of Israel and have not encountered such a severe organizational failure. This cannot go on.

“Since the IDF entered combat without pre-prepared plans, with reserve units that haven’t trained for years, on an urban terrain that they are not familiar with ... an absurd situation was created. Each unit decided on its own procedure of how to clear urban areas, how to enter houses suspected of being booby-trapped, and there are many units that do not adhere to basic safety guidelines.

“These incidents repeat themselves. Just on Friday, IDF troops entered a booby-trapped building, and apparently no safety procedure was carried out. Three dead and 14 wounded, five of them seriously. Commanders decide for themselves how to act according to their understandings without any briefing from their superiors, while the upper ranks are completely disconnected, allowing this to happen again and again.

“Soldiers are killed and severely wounded wholesale; this is not a twist of fate. This happens because of the criminal negligence and laziness of the senior military echelon. For example, 21 soldiers were killed inside a house while engineering troops prepared the house for detonation. This happened several other times. In two words: shame and disgrace! This is not how you win a war!

“Today, we are losing assets in the northern Gaza Strip, areas that just two months ago the IDF captured at a heavy cost. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant already declared two months ago that we have absolute control over these territories, above ground and in the tunnels beneath. Only two months have passed, and we are losing complete control in northern Gaza.

“Hamas terrorists have returned en masse through the tunnels to the north of the Strip where the IDF evacuated all its soldiers from and did not replace them with reinforcements due to lack of standard operating procedures. Hamas is again controlling Gazans, rebuilding its capabilities in the area. Our soldiers conduct raids on them, and they get killed and wounded by explosives and traps that Hamas had prepared. The majority of our dead and seriously wounded are not wounded from face-to-face combat with Hamas but from explosives and traps. In other words: Months after we captured the northern Strip, we are losing it again.

“The public does not understand that if this continues, we will reach a terrible and menacing situation: We will not dismantle of Hamas, we will not safely return the hostages, and hundreds more of our people will be killed. Every day we go to the cemetery, every day there are people seriously wounded, who have lost their legs and eyes.

“For 20 years, the Iranians and their proxies Hezbollah, in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, have been building an envelope of 250,000 missiles and rockets around the State of Israel. We’re talking about a regional war on a scale of 3,000-4,000 rockets and missiles per day, including missiles aimed at population centers, water infrastructure, power lines, and economic centers in the heart of the country: the Gush Dan area, Haifa Bay, Beersheba, and Jerusalem. Since 2002, our chiefs of staff have decided that the major wars are over, we have peace with Egypt and Jordan, and there is no need for a large army, so they cut the army by six divisions and basically brought it down to almost nothing.

“They talk about a small and hi-tech army, but it isn't even hi-tech, because they didn’t implement the technology. The reservists were not trained, and they also didn’t maintain the equipment depots ... The next regional war, if it breaks out against Hezbollah, will be in five arenas simultaneously ... and we are a tiny army incapable of being in two places at once.

“We can’t wait for the day after. The day after is a war that could last months and years. We need to enlarge the IDF now, and no one is dealing with it. The same political and military leadership that led to this terrible chaos are the ones not dealing with what will happen in the future.”

We’re living in the most worrying period for Jews since World War II, yet Netanyahu is politicking while Israel burns.

Opinion: The condemnation of Israel for the deadly stampede that killed multiple Palestinians illustrates the selective fact-checking by world leaders, revealing attempts to turn Hamas’ actions into a narrative of Palestinian victimhood:

… Incredibly, a surreal scene eluded the eyes of the critics: IDF tanks and troops safeguarded the Palestinian civilians while Hamas did everything it could to prevent the movement, fearing it would compromise its fighting against the IDF. Hamas used roadblocks to stop the movement, and its snipers and operatives even targeted their own population with fire and IEDs. Hamas’ Ministry of Communication accused fleeing Gazans of “colluding with a second Nakba.”

Disinformation attempting to sabotage Israel’s war on terrorism is nothing new in this war: the same goes for the claim that 30,000 Palestinians were killed by Israel in Gaza, of which 70 percent are women and children, widely echoed by the UN, the EU and some media outlets—only these figures are provided by Hamas’ fictitious “Ministry of Health.”

… This pattern simply keeps repeating, yet those of us who don’t usually keep track or pay close attention might get lost in the daily spiral of news to be able to detect it. The “100 UN aid workers” killed by Israel were, in fact, Hamas operatives in disguise; many of the claimed “94 journalists” turned out to be known Hamas or PIJ affiliates and operatives, such as Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Washah and the senior PIJ operatives whose salary slips were published by the IDF.

Hamas savvily identifies golden PR opportunities and leverages them, knowing which strings to pluck, and the receiving end of that music happily resonates its tune. …

Every world leader, journalist and social media user needs to be acutely aware of Hamas’ and Iran’s clever disinformation methods, and take caution. The easy choice is to ride on the already-provided track. The less-than-obvious choice, however, happens to be the right one: the choice to seriously question information coming out of Gaza, and recognize the real danger to the safety and security of the democratic world – terrorism and the Russia-China-Iran axis. Extra fact-checking and caution against disinformation are of the essence in this war—even when it comes to Israel.

Yahya Sinwar and his brother, Muhammad, military leader Muhammad Deif, and Marwan Issa, Hamas’s deputy military commander, seem to have made the decision to launch the attack without consulting other Hamas leaders or the political bureau, leaving the rest of the leadership uninformed. This has led to internal discord within Hamas.

On social media, there has been a 1,200 percent surge over the past year in posts with antisemitic content. In November-December 2023, most were detected on Twitter (68 percent). On TikTok, Facebook, Telegram and Instagram there were far fewer cases of antisemitism. 

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

My father didn’t understand what a “Cosmoberjoxlicast” was, and who can blame him? Pop, it’s short for the Cosmopolitan Globalist Claire Berlinski and John Oxley podcast, but just a placeholder until we think of something perfect, catchy, and memorable. A month of the Cosmopolitan Globalist on the house to the reader who comes up with a name that makes both of us immediately say, “Yes! That’s perfect.”

We discovered today that twenty minutes isn’t a long time. We had a long list of things we wanted to talk about, but being disciplined, we cut it short exactly when we said we would.

Tell us what you think.

* Goodbye, Sergei Kotov: Another Russian warship sunk in Black Sea

* By the numbers: How conflict in the Red Sea disrupts global trade

* The Red Sea data cables cut as Houthis launch more attacks in the vital waterway

* Red Sea cables have been damaged, disrupting internet traffic

Echt Galloway:

The video below should seek to Sunak’s speech:

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

My father didn’t understand what a “Cosmoberjoxlicast” was, and who can blame him? Pop, it’s short for the Cosmopolitan Globalist Claire Berlinski and John Oxley podcast, but just a placeholder until we think of something perfect, catchy, and memorable. A month of the Cosmopolitan Globalist on the house to the reader who comes up with a name that makes both of us immediately say, “Yes! That’s perfect.”

We discovered today that twenty minutes isn’t a long time. We had a long list of things we wanted to talk about, but being disciplined, we cut it short exactly when we said we would.

Tell us what you think.

* Goodbye, Sergei Kotov: Another Russian warship sunk in Black Sea

* By the numbers: How conflict in the Red Sea disrupts global trade

* The Red Sea data cables cut as Houthis launch more attacks in the vital waterway

* Red Sea cables have been damaged, disrupting internet traffic

Echt Galloway:

The video below should seek to Sunak’s speech:

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

The title is just for now. Until we think of a better one.

Give it a try. It’s only twenty minutes. It’s an experiment. We’re thinking that if you like this—or if you can imagine liking it, if we make it better in some (achievable and realistic) way—we’ll do it daily.

We figured we could both spare about twenty minutes every day to talk about the global news stories that stand out most to us. So today, we talked about Germany’s OpSec Screwup of the Century and Haiti’s descent into even more total anarchy.

If you like it, let us know. If you don’t like it, let it grow on you a bit before deciding you’ll never listen to it again. We’ll almost certainly get better at it with practice.

Read about it:

* Gleeful Russia relishes German Taurus leak scandal: The Kremlin is jubilant after humiliating Berlin by revealing top-secret missile talks.

* Haiti declares state of emergency after double jailbreak allows thousands of inmates to escape.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe