Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, I want to go through the only two reasons why I believe optionsellers.com blew up their hedge fund. If you're listening to this podcast or if you clicked on it from Google or somebody shared it with you, hopefully this will give you a little bit of insight and understanding as to why this hedge fund that was shorting naked calls and puts in the market blew up and I think that the reasoning behind this is a little bit different than what most people would assume. I think the problem that I see with optionsellers.com is twofold and then at the end, what I want to talk about is why they were basically doing things completely wrong. You'll see as we go through the number one and two reasons here, but again, you'll see why these things are completely wrong and backwards even probably based on their own logic and in-house risk management system which they probably just failed to follow. But the number one reason why they blew up is probably over-allocation and position size. I would dare to say that once all the information comes out that this is probably the number one reason why their hedge fund blew up and it's because they had too large of a position not only in natural gas, but also in short contracts in crude oil. And so, this huge exposure on the short side when selling option contracts leaves you open to the possibility that a random black swan event like what we saw in natural gas just recently and crude oil creates an exponential type of risk scenario. And so, an over-allocation or too large of a position is cardinal sin number one for me and has been something that we always talk about here at Option Alpha as being the first line of defense for any option selling activity, is to keep position sizing under 5% of risk for the position, not premium, but risk and I would almost 100% bet that optionsellers.com had way too large of a position size for all of their accounts.
The number two reason why I think that they blew up their hedge fund is because they were too focused or highly concentrated in one industry and sector which again, is probably cardinal rule sin number two for us here at Option Alpha, is not to have too much exposure into one industry or sector. Look. They had a huge position size in natural gas and crude oil and not only that, but they had it in basically just the energy sector with almost nothing else in their portfolio. And again, I don't know for sure what they had in their portfolio because none of that stuff is out, but I'm assuming that based on the fact that they blew up overnight and it was mainly tied to those based on the video that they put out that those are probably the largest positions and potentially the only positions that they had in their portfolio for clients. Now, this is a problem because again, what you have here is you have this sequencing risk that if you're focused on one or two industries and just randomly, those industries at the same time or those sectors at the same time experience a black swan a-systematic event, then you have the propensity to have massive drawdowns and huge risk to increasing implied volatility and they basically got hit with the one-two punch of like "Don't do this and don't do this." and they did them both at the same time and basically, their number just came up and the market wiped them out. The lessons that we can learn from this I think are many, obviously and if you're not looking at this as a huge opportunity to learn as an options trader, you're totally missing the boat here.
The problem that I'm going to definitely see with option sellers is that people are going to assume that what option sellers did is then standard for what most options traders do which is probably not the case. The way that you should be trading options includes not doing those two things and it's something that we've always talked about here at Option Alpha for decades now. We've talked about keeping your position size in check all the time, trading small allocations, keeping risk in check for every single ticker that you're in and in addition, what we talk about at nausea is the idea of diversification of tickers, this idea that we never want to be selling options as high as implied volatility is, as lucrative as one industry or sector might be. We never want to be selling options in the same one or two or even three industries or sectors of the market. Many times, we often add low implied volatility option selling strategies to our portfolio in order to reduce the systematic risk of one of these industries or sectors blowing up like what happened in natural gas and crude oil. Oftentimes, we'll add exposure to utilities and retail and financials and bonds in many cases just so that we don't have all of our eggs in one basket. I mean, it really comes back down to like investing and portfolio management 101 and again, why they didn't have these checks and balances in place, I have no idea and maybe that'll come out in the future, but it's pretty clear that these two rules here were violated.
I think the other thing that I'll mention here is kind of like rule number three for us if we were to rank them is cash, is having lots of available cash. Now, I don't doubt that they probably had more cash available at the time that they entered the trade, but clearly, they were not anticipating the huge run-up in implied volatility and by shorting so many naked contracts, they left themselves overexposed to a run on cash. Now, our suggestion for all of our trading is that basically, you should have at least 50% of your account in cash at all times and that includes making the assumptions that if you have some short option contracts that those could double or triple in margin exposure any time. In fact, we often tell people to reduce the number of contracts that they have with short option trading. If you're going to do short naked calls and short naked puts, that's not a bad thing as long as you keep them low and low proportion or percentage of your account. You have to keep those in check because they could double or triple or quadruple in margin requirement overnight and you need to have ample cash to be able to handle those. Again, it's not something I think that they probably did not do over there or at least did not do well. It's a really good learning opportunity. It's a great reminder of why we tell people to keep things small, not to be greedy, to play the long, steady, consistent game which oftentimes does not look appealing and is not sexy, it's not what people want. People don't want slow and steady or low volatility in their account, easy up and down months. They want these massive gains and sometimes this comes back to bite them in the butt because they take on a ton of risk, they over-allocate, do all the things that they shouldn't be doing which ultimately ends in massive failure. Hopefully this helps out. I'm sure there'll be more on this and we'll continue to chat on this, but if you have any questions or have any comments, as always, please reach out to me and let me know and until next time, happy trading.