Hey everyone. This is Kirk here from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to be talking about why even the smartest people in the world don't recognize optimistic denial. I wanted to start off with just a very quick story and the quick story is about some, let's say friends/relatives that we know that got married. In fact, it was actually the girl who married a guy. Really, really smart girl. In fact, probably one of the smartest people that I know. I mean, really, she's a chemist and a scientist and very, very smart. And she ended up marrying a guy who was just as smart as her, very smart guy, engineer and they had troubles early in their engagement. And they thought to themselves and I remember talking to them and my wife and I were talking to them about their engagement and their upcoming wedding and they thought to themselves that once they got married that everything would be better and for some reason that the act of marriage would then solve their problems which if you're listening to this now, you probably know or it's probably very intuitive that that didn't happen. In fact, they got divorced about four months after they got married. I mean, it was really that quick that things turned sour and they ended up in a divorce which is sad.
But I think what it really shows me is that there's a lot of people out there who dress up this fear of something and they call it optimistic denial and I think that's really debilitating because most people will avoid something out of some random belief that their course or their track or their trajectory will improve over time if they increase their effort or just give it more time or if it increases their income. You even see this in say jobs. People will avoid quitting their jobs in the belief that it's going to improve with a little bit more effort or if they increase their income, then they'll feel happier about being in their job. But the reality is that if it's really likely to improve, if they're that confident that it's likely to improve them, why are they questioning things? We know right now and we were all rational adults for the most part, I guess, right? We know that more money in a job that you hate does not make you hate the job less. It just makes you tolerate it a little bit longer until you reach the next threshold in which case, you need to make even more money at that job before you tolerate it a little bit more and that's really all it is. It's just the different steps of fear and toleration that we go through.
I went through this myself when I decided to leave, I guess the corporate world and at the time, I was working in REITs and so, I had a great job. I had left investment banking. Everyone said I was stupid to do that. I went into the REIT business which was great, but then I decided I wanted to leave that. Look. I was scared to leave that because I was so young in doing so, because I knew that that was the different path that most people took and so, that was a nightmare for me because I didn't know what was going to happen. But I knew that it wasn't where I was supposed to be, so I let it play off, I guess for a little bit, a couple of months before I just realized that I was in total optimistic denial. I just had this optimistic approach that everything would improve and get better, but like in my heart, I knew that's not what I wanted to do, that's not where I wanted to be, it's not the lifestyle that I wanted. And so, for me, I had to sit down and really define kind of what my worst fears were, my fears of being let go, my fears of the industry changing, my fears of losing that position, I mean, just everything. I wrote it out on a paper and tried to figure out – Okay. If that happens, what were the steps that I could take to kind of get back on my feet? What would I do mentally, financially, physically? Where would I go? Who would I see? What could I do? And I realized I had in that process, put together a game plan that allowed me (and thanks to my wife and her support too) to come home and actually trade from home. And so, that was a really big part of that. It was just laying out this game plan and recognizing that I was in this mode called optimistic denial, that I thought my course would improve over time with more effort or more income or more relationships, but it really wasn't going to. I think this is insanely important because I feel that we get stuck in ruts and modes of learning and working and dealing with relationships and it's only when we actually try as humans which is really the biggest ability that we have as humans over every other thing on the planet, is the ability to step back and take a look at our overall picture, our overall position and really define where we're at and where we're going and then make the conscious decision to potentially change it.
I think this also happens a lot with children. As I'm learning as a parent hopefully for the better, that people are optimistically denying how good or bad their children are. People say, "Oh, he's just going through a growth spurt." You know, like a different mode or change. Or this person is just whatever the case is for that child. But parents are guilty of this all the time, believing that their children are better or worse than they actually are and it's not until we actually take a step back and look at a child in the context of everyone else or independently as a unique individual that we realize how good or bad they are or what course corrections we can make as parents. I think it happens all over the place. I think it's something you need to realize and again, take one step back because if somebody like these two people I talked about in the beginning of the podcast, insanely smart people, very successful in what they do, if they didn't recognize right away that they were on the wrong path, they were on a collision course with divorce, then it's going to be really hard for everyone else to as well. And you just have to take a step back all the time and just kind of reassess the surrounding, reassess your situation and make sure you're doing what you want to do and you're really rationally looking at everything in your life, your job, your physical fitness, your health, your religion, I mean, everything. It's got to be constantly evolving and constantly improving. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.