Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we’re going to talk about self-attribution bias. This is probably one of my most favorite biases that I see people have and I think that it’s a hard one initially for people to struggle to get over because we live in a society where everyone is posting on Instagram and posting on Facebook and your best foot is always facing forward and you have the decision to choose that. And you’ve heard the saying before, “Never confuse brains for a bull market.” or potentially, you’ve heard that saying of words. It’s a very common Wall Street saying, but it has a deep rooting and meaning in this self-attribution bias which is this idea that we have this processing capability and this cognitive information filtering where we have a tendency to credit our success to some talent or skill that we have, but then on the flipside, we blame all of our failures or any potential failure and situation, thing that really happens bad to us on something beyond our control. If we do really, really well, then we blame it on our talent or success, our pedigree, our degree, our skill, our negotiating, everything, anything that we could potentially credit to our success. And then on the flipside, when things go wrong, it’s not us. It’s the economy, it’s the president, it’s this, it’s the Tweet, it’s China, it’s Russia, it’s America, it’s Democrats, it’s Republicans, it’s whatever.
We do this self-attribution bias to an irrational degree on the success side. And so, as investors, this is really damaging because we find ourselves… And I’ve talked about this positive bias before, this negative consequence that happens from seeing trades that actually work out that you shouldn’t have done before, but that’s what happens. We get into this self-attribution mode where we make a trade that we know we shouldn’t make and we feel kind of funny about it and we feel kind of silly about it and we have this hunch that things are going to go right and then it does and it’s a negative reinforcing belief, this idea that we are doing something that is bad for us long-term, but feels right because we had one positive experience or two or three or four positive experiences. We have this self-attribution bias that we assign all of this success to some magic skill that we have as a trader, into finding a secret indicator or finding some thing that nobody else has potentially seen before or other people really don’t understand, but it couldn’t be further from the truth. We have no skill in the market. We just have mechanics and we have emotions and either one or the other is going to control or steer the ship. There’s very little skill. There’s just the emotional stability, the self-control to do the right things mechanically time and time and time again.
I don't think that people with skill are the rule. I think that there are people who have skill, but they are definitely the exception to the rule and I think that they don’t even know potentially sometimes how good their skill is, but there’s going to be people like that. I just don’t think that that’s… It’s definitely not me. I don’t have any crazy amazing skill in trading. I just try to work as much as possible at the mechanics. Try to realize today that you have control over everything that happens, that no matter what happens externally, you have control over how you manage and run your portfolio, so you can whimsically throw your hands up in the air and let somebody else take the wheel or you can grab the wheel and buckle down and try to understand these concepts, try to learn how to allocate your portfolio, how to adjust if you need to adjust, how to roll contracts if you need to roll, how to calculate position-sizing, all the things that we talk about at Option Alpha, you have the ability to control and therefore, you have the ability to control the outcome of. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.