Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47WCxH3

I arrived back in California late last evening with Hurricane Franklin having cancelled our previously mentioned trip out of the country. Joleen and I replaced it with a couple days away at our place in the Hamptons, not exactly unplugged, but not exactly fully working. Maybe the notion of a true work-free unplugged trip will happen some day, but I have to say, so far, a pretty comical list of sincere attempts to see it happen have been tried and failed. I am very grateful to Brian Szytel for the last three days of DC Todays and I am back in the California office today and happy to be back with you.

We are up to an 89% chance in the futures market of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting in late September, and a 54% chance of no hike at the meeting after that in November. The five-year inflation breakeven priced in the TIPS market is 2.16%. Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, cautioned against the Fed over-tightening and said current Fed policy was “appropriately restrictive.”

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