Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NqpaFA

The Bank of England surprised markets by hiking rates a half point this morning (a quarter point had been expected).

Chairman Powell did his very best in front of the House yesterday to basically swear they have more rate hikes left in them (all the while swearing they are data dependent, with the apparent contradiction between promising something six weeks in advance of the data coming in that you are promising to be led by never really being explained).

But then … Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, came out and said he believes the Fed should hold rates where they are now for the rest of the year …

So if you don’t know what the Fed will do next, join the club. The futures market is up to a 77% implied probability that the Fed will hike at the late July meeting. I remain skeptical but not adamant. And the Fed remains content with ambiguity and public mixed messaging, with “trial ballooning” apparently a new policy tool in the toolbox.

Links mentioned in this episode: