Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3moAxo7

Days like today tend to be pretty boring because stock and bond markets are limited in what they are likely to do a day ahead of a news announcement like tomorrow’s CPI reading. The fed funds futures have a 70% chance right now for a quarter-point rate hike next month, and we will see how markets respond to the CPI tomorrow. In the meantime, I tried to make some stuff up today to keep you interested. =)

I’ll put it here instead of down below, but the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has stayed at a low level in March, February, and January. Now, it hasn’t gone much lower from each of those months, but it has stayed level at a spot that is pretty near where it was ten years ago. Their access to capital (particularly from banks) has dropped substantially, and the confidence one would deduce from hiring plans and capex plans is just not there. It isn’t collapsing, but it isn’t good. The number one issue cited: uncertainty over the economy.

It will be interesting to see if the Fed wants to resolve their uncertainty the hard way.

Links mentioned in this episode: