Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3RJ28h3

Markets were hit hard again today, and I do imagine we are getting closer to some short-term capitulation, but you never know. The way the regional banks have been acting lately is noteworthy. This bond rally has not let up and is basically 100% of the current market story.

Why have oil prices gone up so much even as gas prices have not really gone up (and have, in fact, come down)? Refinery margins have collapsed, period. There is more than one input to retail gas prices at the pump.

Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, is the latest Fed head to say she believes another rate hike is needed. But she also said part of that would depend on … “the UAW strike” ?????? Yep. She is not a voting member of the FOMC, by the way.

You’ve heard all the talk about record levels of credit card debt. It is currently 3.7% of nominal GDP. It was 3.9% of nominal GDP in late 2019. It was 4.2% in 2010 after the financial crisis. Sorry, but the numerator is not the only number in a fraction.

Market rates are tightening without the Fed. The idea that the Fed would pour gasoline on top of this is surreal to me. But so is modern central banking.

Links mentioned in this episode: