Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/3ricXf2

I am hopeful all had a wonderful Independence Day spent with family and friends in celebration of the 247th year of the greatest country to ever inhabit the Earth.  The biggest news on the day was the Fed minutes that were released, indicating the rationale behind their decision to pause and hold rates steady last meeting while leaving the door open to raising again in the near future.  While the decision was unanimous, the discussion revealed a debate by some on moving rates up 25 bps last week.  The next FOMC meeting is out on 7/25 and 7/26, and while we do get some employment data this week, I think it will be less relevant than the consumer price data we will get a week from today that will ultimately drive their next decision on rates.  It does appear the Fed is erring on the risk of recession over the risk of having to repeat the 1970s style stop and go on Fed policy.  All said, it was a low-volume trading day following the holiday and the first full trading day in the second half of the year that was modestly negative in stock and bond prices throughout.  All discussed and more in today's video podcast link below.

Brian Szytel

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/07/05/ups-teamsters-negotiations-end-as-strike-looms/70382580007/

Links mentioned in this episode: