The Debate

Donald Trump again says the Iran war will be over "soon". The US president has said this in some way, shape or form a number of times in recent days. Yet there's still no solution on the horizon in the Middle East.

On March 9, Trump said the war was "very complete, pretty much". On March 24, he reportedly said the US and Israel had "won" the war. On April 14, in a Fox Business interview, Trump said the war was "very close to being over." On April 16, CBS reported Trump again saying the conflict was "very close to over." On May 1, in a letter to Congress, the US president declared the hostilities had "terminated." On May 7, Trump said there was a "very good chance" the war was nearing an end and spoke optimistically about peace negotiations.

This Thursday, there is word of a 14-point memorandum being under consideration by Tehran. Key in the demands being made by Washington is a moratorium on Iran's enrichment of uranium. In return, there would be a lifting of sanctions against Iran and an unfreezing of assets. 

Is there any chance of a breakthrough?

Produced by Mark Owen, Antonia Cimini, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Never have local elections in the United Kingdom been so loaded with implications. The rise in popularity of two parties – Reform UK and the Greens – raises questions about the political system, which has for so long been based on two main parties. 

But on a wider scale, the fate of the UK prime minister could be in play. Keir Starmer has been under pressure, it seems, ever since winning the 2024 general election. There are already reports of plans to push him aside if Labour loses heavily in Thursday's local elections. So could this be Starmer's last stand?

Produced by Mark Owen, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Guillaume Gougeon and Charles Wente.

Iran's economy may be teetering on the brink of collapse, but does that really threaten its regime? Monday's flare-up of hostilities across the Strait of Hormuz makes clear that oil's not about to start flowing freely again. Tehran and Washington are both signalling they can bear the pain of lost revenue and inflation, with Iran arguably taking that brinkmanship further.

When missiles target the Emirates' prized Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the Strait, they're shooting at what was a favoured hub for parking its cash and bypassing sanctions. We ask about who feels more pain in the divorce with the same UAE that last week quit OPEC, in part because it thought Gulf neighbours weren't tough enough on Tehran.

Read moreUS and UAE report Iran attacks as military pushes to reopen Strait of Hormuz

The Islamic Republic knows that its main nemesis, the one that killed its supreme leader, faces the pain of rising prices at the pump ahead of November US midterm elections. But what about ordinary citizens in Iran, a nation where mass New Year's protests were sparked by soaring inflation?

At what point is the regime in danger? A messianic streak and a survival mode honed over decades are both factors. But Iran and its powerful Revolutionary Guards also rely on a vast patronage system. Behind the cloak of an internet blackout, how's it looking on that score?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.

Just as Europe frets over fresh Trump tariffs, a US troop drawdown announced for Germany and the message it sends to a hostile Russia, how about not one but two summits in former Soviet state Armenia. Before a first-ever gathering of EU leaders in Yerevan on Tuesday comes the European Political Community: a talk shop with regional players which also include Ukraine and NATO heavyweights like the UK, Norway and an outside guest who shares superpower proximity problems. 

We revisit Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's clarion call for so-called middle powers that share common interests and values to band together.

Read moreEuropean and Canadian leaders hold security talks in Yerevan amid uncertainty over US policy

Is this summit a show of strength? Or a provocation sure to rile both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, one month before Armenia's incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan goes before voters to sell his US-brokered peace deal with neighbouring Azerbaijan in a general election?

More broadly, do wars in Iran and Ukraine make Western-style liberal democracy an easier or a harder sell?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.

Is it just another billionaires' battle of egos or does the $150 billion lawsuit that pits Elon Musk against Sam Altman go to the heart of how artificial intelligence could determine the future of humanity? We ask about the origin story of OpenAI, founded by some of Silicon Valley's leading luminaries as a non-profit organisation that would put innovation at the service of a socially responsible AI, the growing pains and fallouts that followed, leading up to the launch of ChatGPT and OpenAI's alliance with Microsoft.

Watch moreMusk vs Altman: Two tech mavericks go head to head in OpenAI trial

Is there an air of inevitability in this tale of ambition? Is it human nature that profit eventually comes before safety, particularly when investors want a return on their record sums? A ruling in California against Altman could scuttle the transformation of OpenAI from non-profit to publicly traded company.

We've seen this movie before – literally. The 2010 film "The Social Network" chronicled the ambitions and betrayals surrounding the rise of Facebook. Since then, the stakes have risen exponentially. Gone are the days when tech titans mused about effective altruism.

The big question: does the rest of the planet watch passively as the United States moves towards less, not more regulation at the dawn of an era where machines are sure to upend the way we work, think and live? 

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Guillaume Gougeon, Charles Wente.

There are those who want the US and Iran to settle, and those who want regime change. Among the latter, there's of course Israel and then there's the United Arab Emirates, who've signaled OPEC's cautious response as a reason for quitting the cartel. Is this the end of OPEC? How will its biggest producer Saudi Arabia respond? The Emirates also seem to have it in for Saudi ally Pakistan, by suddenly demanding the immediate reimbursement of a $3.5 billion loan from the cash-strapped facilitators of US-Iran mediation efforts.

How did Pakistan emerge as a central player? What are the benefits and risks when you raise your hand to facilitate dialogue between sworn enemies, particularly when one's your neighbour and the other's a global superpower that can scuttle an IMF bailout if relations sour?

At the heart of it all is the powerful chief of the military, Field Marshal Asim Munir. He knows Iran well from his time as head of intelligence and has infuriated India by ingratiating himself with Donald Trump. But what if the US president turns out to be a fair-weather friend? And can the art of the deal bring down prices at the pump for ordinary Pakistanis left reeling by the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Call it the royal trump card: King Charles III has been dispatched to Washington on a state visit at the lowest point in the "special relationship" in at least seven decades. We ask if catering to Donald Trump's enthusiasm for the British crown can dispel the bad blood over tariffs, the war in Iran and repeated jibes by the US president to make Canada the 51st state. Canada is of course a Commonwealth member whose head of state is the same Charles III who's invited to address Congress and feted at a state dinner.

Does the successor to Queen Elizabeth II have what it takes to keep a poker face and stick to the script prepared by his prime minister? All it takes is a hot mic moment or a raised eyebrow for the media covering the four-day visit to go into overdrive.

Then there's the matter of the king's brother, the former prince Andrew, who's been criminally indicted following the same Epstein files revelations that brought down the UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson.

A coincidence of the calendar has Prime Minister Keir Starmer's former chief of staff testifying on the same day back in London over the bungled vetting that led to the appointment of a former Labour Party insider whose nickname was the Prince of Darkness. Mandelson's reputation was no secret, yet he was appointed anyway. Why? To please Trump.

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Even if it's the act of a "lone wolf", as first suggested by US President Donald Trump, Saturday night’s White House Correspondents' Dinner drama certainly did not happen in a vacuum. And just as mass shootings have become commonplace in a United States overrun by firearms, so have attempts on the lives of political figures. 

Read moreSuspect in press gala shooting charged with attempted assassination of Trump

We ask about the latest targeting of the US president and the echo chambers that amplify vilification and hate, that turn adversaries into enemies, as well as a social media landscape where conspiracy theories can make a better fit than facts, both as ideology and as a business model.

In the buildup to that White House Correspondents' Dinner, all the talk was of how traditional media – already on the backfoot – would respond to all the bashing, particularly in the week that saw a mega-merger that could change the course of globally renowned news outlet CNN. But we'll never know, as the speech never happened. 

Read more‘Staged’: Conspiracy theories spread online after thwarted shooting at White House press gala

Partisanship has always existed. But as the United States gets set to mark its 250th anniversary, is this time different? Is the level of verbal violence specific to a nation where gerrymandered constituencies encourage radical rhetoric? Or do more and more people globally think they're above the law?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

How to mediate between Iran and the United States when one side wants revenge for the killing of its leader and the other's erratic messaging seems ratings-driven? Donald Trump's unilateral ceasefire declaration has brought neither side back to the bargaining table, what with more ships seized in the Strait of Hormuz and lockdown mode relaxed in Pakistan's capital for talks that may or may not resume.

We ask about US demands that can change course inside the same presidential tweet, and an unclear chain of command on both sides: why was US Vice President JD Vance flanked by Trump confidantes Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff last time? Does it actually matter that none of those three are trained diplomats or Iran specialists?

And who's really calling the shots in an Islamic Republic that's in survival mode? On that score, what are Tehran's intentions regarding Hezbollah? Its proxy militant group in Lebanon is absent as the US State Department in Washington brokers more old school-style negotiations between the Israelis and the Lebanese.

Who's got leverage over whom and if diplomacy fails, what does escalation look like?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Marguerite Lacroix, Andrew Hilliar.

Will the world have enough fuel to fill the tanks and fertilise the crops? The seizure of ships by Iran is adding to global jitters as the extension of a ceasefire offers zero visibility on prospects for the planet's biggest choke point for oil and gas. Nearly two months on, the Paris-based International Energy Agency is calling it the biggest-ever energy disruption in history. We ask about prices at the pump, cancelled flights and more broadly, if oil's not flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, where to find it and what's the alternative?

Cue images of the French president who staged his Wednesday cabinet meeting in the central Allier region, where Emmanuel Macron also inaugurated a large lithium mine.

How fast can the energy transition make up for lost oil? How much of a bind is this for Europe, when harmony among the 27 rests on Russian oil flowing to eastern members through the Druzhba pipeline and when China's dominance of the battery and electric vehicle markets makes it very hard to compete?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.