The Debate

The Lebanese have seen it all: from civil war to the 2019 protests demanding an end to revolving-door politics; from the 2020 Beirut port explosion, which exposed the tragic consequences of nepotism, to Israel’s 2024 operation targeting its longtime foe, Hezbollah. Now Israeli ground forces have returned once again to confront the Tehran-backed group. Lebanon thus finds itself a second front in the month-long war launched against Iran.

We’ll be asking what it means to return to life in wartime: how the country is coping with 1.2 million displaced people, with UN peacekeepers killed or injured, and with the enduring question of how Lebanon can break free from half a century of armed factions acting as laws unto themselves. That outcome will depend in part on how regional powers fare in the current war. For decades, they have treated Lebanon as a vacant lot where scores are settled by proxy.

But it will also depend on the Lebanese themselves—on whether a younger generation can finally move beyond sectarian divisions and clan loyalties, and turn that ambition into lasting change.

 

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

What could possibly go wrong? As Donald Trump repeats threats of a Venezuela-style seizing of Tehran's oil exports and as US assault troops get in position, the price of oil is blowing past $110 a barrel, as markets take it at face value that the Pentagon is planning to make a grab for Kharg Island – the hub for nearly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports.

We ask about the pitfalls of sailing warships past the Strait of Hormuz for an invasion, the Islamic Republic's response, and how Gulf neighbours would view it all.

Since 1945, the United States has positioned itself as the Arabian Peninsula's main security guarantor. Will that still be the same when the dust settles?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

As G7 foreign ministers root for the off-ramp in the Iran war, François Picard’s panel weighs the damage done to the region, to the world economy and to transatlantic trust. From Donald Trump's threats against NATO allies to France denying it disinvited South Africa from June's G7 summit to placate Washington, we weighs US threats… and those of Iran.

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

 

 

 

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It's Trump's war, but is it also NATO's problem? Europeans are forced to bear the security and financial consequences of the second war on their doorstep. We see if our panel agrees with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who assures it's only a matter of "a couple of weeks" before traditional allies agree to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. 

Before Europeans follow a US president who started the war without consulting them into a potential quagmire, several questions arise: why should they help? Can the so-called coalition of the willing that's scrambling to help Ukraine fend off Russia's onslaught leverage US support into firm backing for Kyiv? 

And what happens if Trump emerges weakened and wounded from a poorly planned campaign against Iran? Will the United States look at its traditional allies in a better light, or will he blame Europeans and turn on Ukraine? 

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Are diplomatic talks to end the Iran conflict actually happening? Donald Trump has hinted at "major" progress, but the White House downplayed this. Iran says no, Qatar says they're not involved, while there's increasing speculation that Pakistan could be the host of talks later this week. Yet all of this comes as Israel says it plans to push into Lebanon as far as the Litani River against Hezbollah and will use a Gaza-style approach, which resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe. So where are we at? Are we witnessing a high-stakes poker game where someone has to blink first?

Produced by Annette Young, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Another deadline day, another ultimatum, another surprise turn from the US president. The same Donald Trump who may or may not send ground troops to try to secure the Strait of Hormuz is now claiming that his administration is talking with the Iranians, thus holding off on hitting critical infrastructure. Trump's messaging since the start of this war has been keeping friends and foes alike guessing. That's in stark contrast to his Israeli allies, who seem to be embracing a fight many of its leaders have been dreaming of for decades. 

Israel, too, has a larger-than-life populist leader who's changed the course of his country's history. Their interests overlap, but remain distinct. A case in point is Israel's rush to prepare for an eventual ground operation in Lebanon. So who's calling the shots? Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu? Whose idea was this war?

And who takes the blame once the guns go silent on a campaign that's failed to rally traditional allies, punished civilians by laying waste to critical infrastructure and triggered a worldwide energy crisis?

What prospects lie ahead for Trump, his MAGA movement, Netanyahu and the state of Israel?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

The Middle East War is now in its 20th day, with a perceived split in US and Israeli strategy emerging. Donald Trump says Israel bombed Iran's gas field "without his knowledge". Then Trump, perhaps playing catch-up, threatened to "blow up" Iran's South Pars gas field if Iran strikes Qatar; a move that experts say would literally explode the region. 

There's also another issue simmering away: what to do with Iran's enriched uranium? Experts say this is the next big decision for Trump. Seizing Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium could well require the "largest special forces operation in history".

When US and Israeli jets bombed Iran's nuclear facilities last June, the regime was thought to have over 400 kg of 60 percent6enriched uranium. This is near weapons grade. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90 percent. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, half of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium is stored underground at Isfahan. US intelligence believes there's a "very narrow access point" through which this material could be retrieved.

We discuss this next possible phase in the war, and what it could mean going forward.

Produced by Mark Owen, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

On Day 19 of the war in the Middle East, there have been extensive air strikes, drone attacks and missiles launched. Fallout is spreading far beyond the so-called theatre of war. What's the plan in Iran? Donald Trump finds himself increasingly between a rock and a hard place. But at least he can count on his loyal MAGA followers. Or can he?

The US Congress is calling for Joe Kent to appear, in the wake of his decision to resign as head of national counterterrorism over Iran. Kent, an erstwhile Trump and MAGA loyalist and former special forces officer, said "in all conscience I cannot back the Iran war". This is another example of Trump's support crumbling over the war.

Kent also said the US went into battle under the influence of "Israel and its powerful American lobby". Is Trump's political universe starting to implode over his Iran strategy, or lack thereof? And what does this mean for the Middle East going forward? 

Produced by Mark Owen, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Ali Larijani was the head of Iran's Security Council and a key voice in the ear of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Gholamreza Soleimani was the head of the Basij militia. Both were pillars of Iran's security apparatus. If they have indeed been taken out, the question is who replaces them, and will they take Iran down an even more hardline path?

The death of Iran's key figure Ali Larijani raises more questions than answers.

First, Israel says it has killed him in an air strike, but Tehran has yet to confirm or deny.

While Israel and the United States rejoice and call on the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow what is left of their Islamic leadership, the reality on the ground is less certain. The systematic killing of the leaders of Iran since February 28 has created a vacuum in Tehran.

The fear among analysts is that the space will be filled by regime insiders who will be hardened and more radical.

Larijani was the lead negotiator at the now aborted talks to find a peaceful way forward.

Following the death of the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – to whom he was a close adviser, some say the de facto leader – some in Washington saw Larijani as a good fit for successor; a man they could perhaps do business with.

Who comes next? What could this mean for the war? And how might it affect the other groups in the region that take their lead from Iran's leadership? 

It's Day 17 of the war in the Middle East and as the missiles and drones keep falling, the US president has done a U-turn on needing help from his friends and allies. Donald Trump is calling now for a coalition to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island on Friday sent a message to Tehran, but did not take away the potential threat to shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf.

For Trump, this call to stand together is something of a turn-around. On March 7, he told US network CBS it was a bit late of the United Kingdom and others to send ships. The US president didn't need British help to win his war. 

Now, Trump is calling on NATO allies to join him in the war he started on February 28 without consulting them. There's a common interest in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. But would it even be at risk had Trump not started this whole crisis?

Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elisa Amiri, Ilayda Habip.