The Debate

We think about war and peace like a light switch that's either flicked on or off. But Russia did not suddenly decide to swoop for Kyiv on a February night of 2022. To this day, it still refuses to call it a war, sticking instead to the less definitive "special military operation".

And yet the writing had long been on the wall, and the actual war started long before: in 2014. Many, through blindness or necessity, refused to heed the warning signs. Even Ukraine's president continued to downplay the intelligence reports. When does rivalry turn to hostility, hostility to war, and are we sometimes at war without knowing it?

Fast forward to the present day and there's no doubting what to call this long, brutal slog with its hundreds of thousands killed, its nightly air raids and its freezing homes due to the targeting of the power grid. How long can a war last?

Or how long can peace last? Were the last eight decades the exception for a Europe that in that time went from the zero-sum game of the Cold War to the enlarged defence shield of a US-led NATO?

As Washington's support for Ukraine now drops dramatically, what do the next four years have in store?

Forget the capture of Nicolas Maduro in Caracas and those zero US casualties. Iran is not Venezuela and the Pentagon knows it. It's deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East along with a fleet of ships, aircraft and support to take on a weakened regime, but still a nation of 90 million that boasts a huge military with a homegrown arsenal of missiles and drones. Is the US prepared for all eventualities, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for more than one fifth of the planet's oil and gas?

Watch moreIran-US tensions soar as second US aircraft carrier approaches region

More broadly, why this potential fight? Why now? How does the same Donald Trump who now chairs a Board of Peace actually view the use of force? The president who campaigned on the promise of no boots on the ground already crossed a red line last June when the US joined Israel’s bombing of Iranian nuclear installations. Will he pull the trigger this time?

And how does the Islamic Republic and its supreme leader view an ultimatum that's mainly but not only about its nuclear programme? To ensure its survival, the regime mowed down protesters by the thousands back in January. Does it emerge further weakened or strengthened after what now lies ahead?

Justice can be slow… and then, suddenly, swift. Two months to the day after the US Justice Department began releasing the Epstein files comes the arrest of King Charles’s brother, Andrew. He had already been stripped of his titles over allegations of relations with sex-trafficked minors. Now, he stands accused of leaking state secrets to the disgraced financier at a time when his late mother was pushing for his appointment as trade envoy.

What are the consequences for Andrew – for the British monarchy – and for institutions already rattled by Peter Mandelson’s appointment as the prime minister’s ambassador to the United States, even though he too stands accused of leaking insider information to Epstein during the financial crisis? Will the arrests restore faith, or further fuel public cynicism?

Moreover, will Andrew’s arrest force Donald Trump’s Justice Department to come clean about what remains unreleased – and to pursue wrongdoing impartially? Whether it’s sex trafficking, trading state secrets, or tax evasion, who is above the law – and who is not?

 

Produced by François Picard, Charles Wente, Théo Vareille, Daniel Whittington and Ilayda Habip

Call it speed dating diplomacy. In Geneva, real estate magnate Steve Witkoff is playing lead US negotiator with Iran in one room, while in another acting as broker for the hard bargaining between Russia and Ukraine. We ask how the Ukrainians feel about it, especially when the mediator's boss piles fresh pressure on them. And what about the Kremlin's envoy this time, a revisionist historian who spouts the "Greater Russia" line of Vladimir Putin?

And even though Ukrainians are feeling the heat during a winter left in the cold by relentless attacks on their power grid, Kyiv has also found a way into the good graces of pro-Trump tech titans, particularly with the shutting of Elon Musk's Starlink low-orbit satellites to Russian forces. That's enabled counter-offensives in the past week.

Still, ahead of next week’s fourth anniversary of Putin's bid to take Ukraine's capital, both sides are reeling from a meat grinder of a war with lasting consequences. It’s been said that it’s politically impossible for Putin to quit now. But how viable is it to keep on fighting?

Produced by Charles Wente, Théo Vareille, Daniel Whittington and Ilayda Habip

There’s trade deals, there's partnerships and then there's fighter jets. French President Emmanuel Macron is in Mumbai to put the finishing touches on a €30 billion sale of 114 Rafale jets. This third batch comes as France struggles to convince European neighbours to either buy its warplanes, build one together or – at the very least – get NATO allies to de-risk from relying on US-made F-35s. 

On the Indian side, there's scrutiny over how Rafale sales have gone so far, both with cost and in combat. Then there's the question of how much Delhi weens itself off historic supplier Russia. And what goes for military hardware goes for oil imports, what with US pressure to stop buying discounted crude from Moscow.

On that score, what to make of fast-tracked trade deals with Washington and the European Union?

How much strategic autonomy can both India and France afford in a realigning world?

Produced by Charles Wente, Aline Bottin, Daniel Whittington and Ilayda Habip

In the wake of the Munich Security Conference, we're asking: what happens now? With Russia's war on Ukraine still raging, do the grand words of Munich mean anything to those struggling to feed themselves, stay warm and survive under Vladimir Putin's ongoing missile and drone attacks?

On European security, tensions are rising. Germany is pressing France to increase its defence spending, with Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul essentially telling Emmanuel Macron to put his money where his mouth is. But with France facing a massive public debt crisis, finding the 5 percent of GDP required for NATO commitments is far from simple.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is visiting Budapest, delivering a message of support from President Donald Trump to his ally Viktor Orbán – Europe's most outspoken admirer of Putin. Rubio's words at Munich suggested conciliation, but standing side by side with Orbán raises questions: is the gap between the US and the EU widening, just when unity is needed most for Ukraine?

Read moreRubio visits Slovakia and Hungary to bolster ties with pro-Trump leaders

Produced by Charles Wente, Aline Bottin, Guillaume Gougeon and Ilayda Habip

Can Europe man the ramparts on its own? As the US war secretary snubbed a NATO defence ministers' meeting in Brussels, EU leaders converged on the 16th-century Alden Biesen castle in Belgium's Limburg province to answer former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi's call for a "big bazooka" approach to reform and competitiveness. 

But behind the walls of the one-time headquarters of the Knights of the Teutonic Order lies a rift: between France, which is pushing a "Buy European" approach to strategic autonomy; and a converging German-Italian couple, which is more focused on lightening regulation and striking new trade deals. 

Read moreEU leaders back major economic overhaul to counter pressure from US, China and Russia

How much of a sense of urgency is there when it comes to safeguarding strategic industries, energy, defence and financing of the 27-member EU's needs? This Old Continent feels caught in a superpower squeeze: between China, with its flood of cheap goods; the US, with its adversarial trade policy and its full-throttled support for Eurosceptic far-right parties; and Russia, which continues to pound Ukraine just as Washington signals the end of its historic role as Europe's defense shield. 

When Draghi was chair of the European Central Bank, he once assured that he would do "whatever it takes" to safeguard the continent's common currency. Markets believed him. For Europe circa 2026, what does "whatever takes" look like and who can deliver it? 

Here in Europe, the heads have started to roll. As journalists and prosecutors continue to speed-read their way through the more than 3 million documents dumped a week ago Friday in the Epstein files, the revelations have already led to resignations, sackings and criminal probes in Norway, France, the UK and beyond. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is hanging by a thread and he never even met Epstein.

Over in the US, former president Bill Clinton has been subpoenaed by a Congressional panel, but what about the current occupant of the White House and his commerce secretary, who visibly lied about never having seen Epstein again after 2005? In the age of echo chambers, does telling the truth ultimately matter?

Read moreUS Attorney General Bondi deflects questions, clashes with democrats over Epstein files

More broadly, will the Epstein files go down in history as the moment that made accountability great again, or be remembered as the bellwether of an irreversible erosion of the rules-based order?

Imagine having to mourn a loved one in secret. One month on, that seems to be the lot of many inside a shellshocked Iran, this after seeing the regime shut the internet and start shooting at unarmed protesters across the country in towns big and small. When the lights came back on, the Islamic Republic of Iran had got away with the very bloodbath that Donald Trump warned it not to carry out. 

While Washington's attention has instead shifted to nuclear negotiations with Tehran, the journalists at FRANCE 24's investigative unit have been hard at work on the testimony and images sent their way – with contacts risking their own lives by getting the word out. We show you an excerpt from their documentary "Iran, massacre under a blackout".

Watch moreExclusive: Iran, massacre under a blackout

You can sometimes win a war by annihilating your enemy. We ask our panel about the bloodbath, the subsequent arrests and if in a nation of 90 million people, Iran's clerics can simply annihilate dissent.

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Rochelle Ferguson.

Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party has turned the wobbly coalition she inherited back in October as Japan's first woman prime minister into a landslide win in snap elections, giving the 64-year-old admirer of late British maverick prime minister Margaret Thatcher enough leeway to reform the constitution and break with eight decades of pacifism. 

In a nation whose population is in decline, we ask why young Gen Z voters broke for the anti-immigrant, China-bashing nationalist and whether flag-waving is the way to go. Cue the conservative sweep in Thailand this past weekend. There, it's border tensions with Cambodia that upended the script. 

And then there is what Takaichi does with her endorsement by US President Donald Trump, who's preparing a spring visit to China, and a United States whose military presence remains vital for both Japan and South Korea. Washington is in two minds when it comes to defending Taiwan and keeping the peace in the Pacific. How volatile could it get in the region?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Rochelle Ferguson.