The Debate

Warfare is always evolving, sometimes slowly: Napoleon’s armies travelled little differently from those of Julius Caesar. At other times, change comes faster than commanders can process, as the futile carnage of the First World War showed. The pace of change on the battlefield today? Fast – very fast.

Introducing the first war brought to you by artificial intelligence. In the first ten days of a campaign that may well have been prepared in a hurry, the US and Israel pinpointed and targeted as many Iranian sites in the first four days as the anti-ISIS coalition did in the first six months of its campaign in Iraq and Syria.

How good are AI-informed kill orders? Are computers already making the call?

The New York Times reports that it was probably humans who mistakenly decided to hit a girls’ school, killing 175. Even if outdated intelligence may be to blame, we’ll ask our panel what role AI might have played.

And what responsibility do tech companies bear when their tools lead to war crimes and mass surveillance? In the battle between Anthropic and the US government over the proper use of its software, who gets the final say: the company, or the government? Especially when the power of this technology is something we do not yet fully grasp.

 

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip.

One war can fuel another. After the United States and Israel launched an operation that began, on day one, with the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Donald Trump expressed surprise at Tehran’s decision to draw in Gulf oil producers and disrupt global supplies.

From the ensuing energy crisis there are plenty of losers – and one big winner: Russia. Washington is now suggesting it may ease sanctions on Russian oil. The Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine had been feeling the pinch, but now – even at a discount – it is finding buyers, just as the Trump administration again pushes for concessions from Kyiv.

We’ll ask how Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer of drone technology to Gulf states measures up against Vladimir Putin’s offer to keep crude flowing; how cash-strapped Europeans will react; and, more broadly, at what point a war of the US and Israel’s choosing spreads so far and wide that it becomes a world war. With alliances such as NATO no longer a given, how should the world deal with the danger?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip.

Why this war of Donald Trump’s choosing? As death and destruction widen in Iran and across the region, and as oil and gas markets take fright, the US president’s reasons for launching what his administration calls Operation Epic Fury continue to shift, as do the stated scale and duration.

What remains consistent is the White House’s messaging, cranked out over social media by Gen-Z handlers who have taken Silicon Valley’s “move fast and break things” mantra and turned it into memes – some even borrowing actual video-game footage. Is it working? Do the fireballs that kill real human beings in the Middle East inspire admiration and awe among voters in the United States?

The fog of war is inherently performative: show that you are mighty and demonise the enemy. It is also meant to serve as a “rally ’round the flag” moment for leaders. Well, almost always. Is this war different? And how is it going for US and Israeli leaders who stand shoulder to shoulder while talking at cross purposes about its length and objectives?

Second week of a war seen more than ever as a massive gamble by the US and Israel: strikes on oil installations in Tehran prompting retaliation across the Gulf. Also blown away are claims that disruptions to global energy security would be only a passing blip.

As the price of crude shoots past 100 dollars a barrel, Tehran signals it’s staying the course, with Mojtaba Khamenei – the hardline son of the assassinated Supreme Leader – chosen to take the reins of an under-siege Islamic Republic that still has the means to make its neighbours pay a price for Trump and Netanyahu’s war.

Take Lebanon, where rocket attacks by Iran proxy Hezbollah have drawn a deluge of fire, a ground incursion by Israel, and the displacement of nearly 700,000 people. We’ll talk about the Lebanese president who wants direct talks with Israel and weigh ten days of destruction of lives and livelihoods.

As for the price at the pump, Europe will arguably feel the effects more sharply than a US that is farther away and largely energy self-sufficient. Good luck glossing that over when France hosts the next G7 summit in June.

Who's paying for this war? First and foremost, the people of the Middle East, who are directly in harm's way. But who pays the financial cost if Iran continues to target the lifeline for the region's oil and gas? Maritime employers out of London are officially designating the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Persian and Arabian Gulf a "warlike operations area". We ask what that means and how much pain is to come.

The United States is far less reliant on the region's crude than the last time Iran mined the narrow waterway that ships one-fifth of the planet's supply. But how about Asia and Europe, which is bracing for another Ukraine war-style jolt in natural gas prices?

As France and the UK dispatch warships, how do NATO allies defend their interests without getting sucked into a war they didn't choose? How to handle a US president that's been pressuring them – with some success – to relax the switch to renewables and "drill, baby, drill"?

More broadly, how vulnerable are Gulf states, whose petrodollars fuel massive investments in artificial intelligence and whose skyscrapers in the sand depend on that other precious lifeline: water? How safe are the Arabian Peninsula's desalination plants, for instance, in these dangerous times?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip, Christophe Bauer.

What does succession look like in Iran? The wait continues after last Saturday's assassination of the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader of nearly 41 years. We ask about calculations and delays in the nomination, as Israeli and US bombs continue to rain down and Tehran continues to put up a fight, with drones and missiles launched at Saudi oil fields and in the direction of a NATO base in Turkey.

Despite the destruction of its navy and Israel's vow to kill whoever succeeds Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can the regime outlast the enemy? It's counting on a state apparatus unmatched by any of its Middle Eastern neighbours. 

And what about the civilians still reeling from January's horrifying crackdown on nationwide protests, a movement that was leaderless? Are they running for the hills or preparing for the next battle?

Watch moreExclusive: Iran, massacre under a blackout

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.

It's only Day 4 and already, an under-attack Iran has drawn in the whole Middle East: targets include the US embassy in Saudi Arabia, oil and gas installations up and down the Gulf and France’s military base in Abu Dhabi. It's all part of Iran's strategy to employ cheap homemade drones to shut businesses, spook markets and scare away tourists as it defends itself against an existential threat that saw its leader eliminated in the opening hours of the US and Israeli bombing campaign. 

Read moreIn pictures: Israel launches simultaneous strikes on Tehran and Beirut

That Israel would pound and even occupy parts of Lebanon to counter any response by Tehran proxy Hezbollah was to be expected, but what about the wider escalation? How far will it go? Both Israel and the US are warning of heavier bombing still to come. 

While the casualty toll mounts, ordinary Iranians asking the same question as panic buyers at French filling stations: how big a spiral? And how long will it last?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.

What's the plan and does it go beyond dropping bombs from the sky? On Day 3 of the US and Israeli campaign that's killed Iran's supreme leader, the United States insist there will be no boots on the ground. But while the US defence secretary talks of nuclear installations and missile launchers, the US president has spoken of laying the groundwork for regime change. Already, the escalation has gone well beyond last June's 12 days of bombing raids.

Did the Pentagon properly prepare for Tehran firing not just on Israel alongside its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, but also targeting Gulf states, with missiles landing as far away as Cyprus? The missiles have shut down Qatar's gas production, damaged at least one oil field in Saudi Arabia and shut the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway that ships more than one fifth of the world's oil and gas.

We hear the Trump administration's rationale for starting this war, weigh the unintended consequences that might result and ask whether a US president who's so often used his military to push red lines – from the 2020 assassination of charismatic Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani to the seizing of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro – can use force as he pleases against an Islamic Republic that back in January proved it was unafraid to slaughter its own people by the thousands if that's what it takes to ensure its survival. 

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Andrew Hilliar.

What would it take for Donald Trump to call off air strikes against an Iran that's told Omani mediators it sees a pathway to compromise over its nuclear programme? We delve into where the veteran Tehran team of veteran negotiators can entice US envoy Steve Witkoff, whose red lines sometimes include the Islamic Republic's missile programme, sometimes less so. 

Neither side is drawing much attention to the actual situation inside Iran, where after the thousands killed in New Year's protests, fresh dissent has erupted as Amnesty International warns of looming executions of tortured demonstrators, some as young as 17.

Watch moreExclusive: Iran, massacre under a blackout

Watching from the sidelines are France, Germany, the UK and the other signatories of the 2015 UN agreement that Trump ripped up in 2018.

Where to put the accent? And what's this showdown ultimately about?

Produced by François Picard, Antonia Cimini, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

What does a boss who's built an image as a tough guy from Queens do when naysayers claim he's reached his limits? To dispel doubts, he can for instance hold the floor for an hour and 47 minutes. In the longest ever State of the Union address, US President Donald Trump proved he can stick to script instead of rambling.

Trump was as combative as ever: bashing immigrants, Iran, the opposition Democrats and even the US Supreme Court for last week's ruling striking down many of his tariffs, the biggest pushback yet for a president who's wielded historically grand executive powers since returning to office 13 months ago. We ask about his plans to not only double down on tariffs – he's saying they can replace income taxes – but to do so without congressional approval.

Read moreTrump’s marathon State of Union: Big claims and the questions he left unanswered

We weigh Trump's methods, his arguments and ask about blurred lines between public policy and personal interest. As a term-limited president approaches midterm elections that could further corner a leader whose mantra's always been "attack, attack, attack", what will Trump do? And how's the rest of the world reading the moment?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.