The Dividend Cafe

By The Bahnsen GroupBusiness Investing

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The Dividend Cafe episodes

July 13, 2020 Replay - National Conference Call on Market Outlook July 13, 2020
44 min
July 10, 2020 Grown-Ups and Unavoidable Tradeoffs
This week’s Dividend Cafe is a long and juicy one – lots of topics, lots of practical subjects (see list below), and plenty for the wonky types and those who loathe such verbose diversions. But what is most important to me in this week’s Dividend Cafe is that it addresses the issue I believe is most necessary for grown-ups to deal with in this day age:
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will:
• Recap the week that just was in markets
• Make the case for a market change in the near future – not one defined by all going down or all going up, but rather one defined by a shift in leadership, away from the popularity group and into the more fundamental group.
• Set the table for a “two-act play” around how we evaluate the economy – the lockdown recession and recovery from such; followed by the “aftershock” phase that deals with structural ramifications from that first phase
• The burden of where rates are now and where they have been
• Ask what has happened to oil prices in 2020, and why!
• Take a look at what the real issue I have with bonds is as I look out into the future
• Note the threats hanging over FANG
• Look at what to expect out of the earnings season that begins this week
• Ask where are we with the U.S. dollar, and what becomes the more investible equity space when the dollar declines? The answer may surprise you.
• Provide a little history on the quarters and years that follow strong quarters. It’s rare to get such universally compelling data.
• Provide our weekly economic report card of the good, bad, and ugly out there, with a special look this week at manufacturing, services, air travel, and more.
• Do Politics & Money
• And in the Chart of the Week, let you decided if we are inflationary woods, or a deflationary jungle
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
26 min
July 10, 2020 Grown-Ups and Unavoidable Tradeoffs
26 min
July 09, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 9
I’ll save you the play by play of what happened with futures last night and this morning, but it was pretty boring. And the markets moved higher a bit pre-market when the jobs numbers came out (see below). But what moved markets lower during trading today seems to be (and I say “seems” because it really doesn’t seem to be much of a market moving event to me, but it was perfectly time to the release of the news) the announcement that the Supreme Court is allowing the New York DA to get Trump’s tax returns. Anyways, the market went down over 500 points, but closed down 350, and actually the S&P was down less than half what the Dow was, and the Nasdaq was modestly up today. So it was not a normal day.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
13 min
July 09, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday July 9
13 min
July 08, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 8
Futures were modestly positive all of last evening and into my morning wake-up. They turned negative a few hours before the market opened and bounced around pre-market. The market opened up a bit, then dropped a few hundred points, then bounced around throughout the day, and rallied into the close to end up +177 points on the day. Not a huge day one way or the other, but some intra-day volatility (as usual).
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
17 min
July 08, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Wednesday July 8
17 min
July 07, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 7
I woke up this morning to an overnight Nikkei that had dropped a tad, European markets down a tad, and U.S. futures down 100 points or so. Futures eased lower throughout the morning (which I might add, now total about six hours before the market opens, versus three hours on west coast – and I love it!) … The market opened down 200 and stayed in that range most of the day before petering out in the final hour of trading and closing near the low (in fairness, this would have been five days in a row of the market being up) …
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
20 min
July 07, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Tuesday July 7
20 min
July 07, 2020 Daily Covid and Markets - Monday July 6
Market futures never did point down last evening, and I woke up very early eastern time to futures pointing up 450 points. After a cup of coffee I realized that China’s market was up a stunning 5.7% today alone. Consider this for those mystified by the actions of the U.S. stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is now the highest it has been since early 2018. We live in crazy times.
Anyways, the Dow opened up big, and traded between +300 and +400 most of the day, and closed right near the high of the day, up +460 points.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
20 min

About The Dividend Cafe

From the publisher's feed

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts…