The Dividend Cafe

The market declined 1,800 points today behind a conflation of factors we will unpack below. Futures were pointing to down 200 at bed time last night, were down over 500 at 3:15am, and dropped more than 850 points from then until the market open. We opened down that much, and then throughout the day saw new intra-day lows hit, as the yield curve flattened and some of the recent high flyers sold off a great deal

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The market was all over the map today, with futures up last night at bed time, flat this morning, then up, then down, etc. This is today’s intra-day chart for the Dow – a snooze fest compared to March volatility, of course, but rather substantial up/down movements as far as normal market days go, closing near low levels of the day.

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Is the market about to go through a period of “rotation?” Growth vs. Value, Large Cap vs. Small-Cap, Cyclicals vs. Defensives - does it even matter? Our investment committee is back together, sheltering in place at our own studio, bringing you our perspective on all these subjects and more.

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The market rallied another 460+ points today, and the S&P closed back where it started the year (so not quite back to its all-time high, but back to its New Years Eve level). The Dow has a little more work to do still. The entire thing is surreal.

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I find it inconceivable that we will not have up and down volatility at some point in the near future. But I am not surprised by this market's resilience. The forward-looking capabilities of the market are powerful, even though they are more often subject to excess. On the downside and the upside - no perfect equilibrium can ever be found. This is why market timing is the errand of a fool.

I hope and pray our society will find a forward-looking optimism, as well. That what is wrong in our country can be fixed by that which is right in our country. Believe it or not, even apart from all I care about on these pages regarding the markets and investment capital, it is to those greater ends that I work.

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