The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe Podcast will now add a Daily Covid and Markets reporting with the latest on the many aspects of the capital markets affected by COVID-19.

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The market week is cut short by the Good Friday holiday this week, but investors liked what they received out of the four days markets were open. Monday represented one of the biggest up days in market history, and Wednesday and Thursday added to the rally, with the Dow now a stunning 5,500 points off its March 23 low level (which was itself an intra-day number).

No, we do not know what equities will do next week, but we do know that the Federal Reserve gave markets a lot of news this week, and that will be the primary focus of the Dividend Cafe. But if you want to understand what it all means for the economy at-large, for housing, for bond investors, and for those just sort of wondering when our country is going to re-open, we invite you to jump into this week's very special Dividend Cafe.

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As I am taping Friday morning a short while into the final market session of the week, the market is nearly flat on the week (modestly down at this point). That came with a big move up Monday, a modest move down Tuesday, a huge move down Wednesday, a decent move up Thursday, and so far, early on Friday, a “flattish” day (though off a bit – again, moving as I type).

Note the theme? A “flat” week in markets, but with huge volatility day by day by day.

Why did markets go up 500 points the day the worst jobless claims data in history came out? Why did markets not tank on the news of the worst unemployment data in ten years? Because markets do not go down on news they already knew was coming. Period. I am confused by media and financial professionals who do not seem to understand this, but I take seriously my obligation to help you, readers of Dividend Cafe, understand this.

Because markets are “discounting mechanisms,” pricing in today what they believe about tomorrow, “good news” cannot make markets rally unless it was not already expected, and “bad news” cannot make markets drop unless it, too, was not expected.

And if you know someone who has not known that in the midst of this national shutdown, that jobs data was not atrociously bad, I really don’t know what to say. The key, my friends, is where we go from here, and that itself is riddled with uncertainty. So let’s unpack as much uncertainty as we can, and jump into a fruitful and useful Dividend Cafe.

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As of broadcast time, the market has moved significantly higher on the week, bouncing in a meaningful way Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week (after further sell-off Monday). As I record Friday morning, the market shows down (but it is early). We all know that we don’t know what the rest of the day (or weekend) will bring.

This very special Dividend Cafe (long, but I think we all have extra reading time this weekend) attempts to combine a lot of investment application, macroeconomic commentary, and basic financial wisdom, into one trip to the Dividend Cafe. Jump on in.

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The utter insanity of today's financial markets continued in Sunday evening futures action, Monday morning futures action, and throughout the day Monday. The largest Federal Reserve announcement yet came, and plenty needs to be said about the so-called "fiscal stimulus bazooka."

Today's special Dividend Cafe provides as much explanation of these crazy times as we can muster, and offers yet more practical guidance on surviving the bear market we are presently enduring.

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There is a Friday Dividend Cafe coming – I do not know when – where the basic tone will be celebratory, and the underlying emotion will be relief. Some lift in equities, some normalization in credit, and some feeling that the worst is all behind us – that Dividend Cafe is coming. Will it be next week or months down the line? I do not know. But I look forward to writing it, and I imagine many of you look forward to reading it.

This week is not that week, and I believe this week’s Dividend Cafe does as much to make sense of everything going on and where we are headed than anything I have written so far. I also do believe the national call we hosted on Tuesday remains current in explaining our outlook.

In the meantime, the country as a whole, not just investors, remain in a period of uncertainty and challenge. And out of this uncertainty and challenge, I believe will come much better days. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.

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Join TBG Chief Investment Officer for a National Conference Call where he delves deep into the reasoning behind the massive moves in the markets over the last three weeks. Share it with your friends!

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If one looks at the rapidity with which this market has sold off, the levels to which it has sold off, and the stressors that currently exist in our financial system and society at large, there is surely a lot of anxiety and uncertainty that permeates. This special Dividend Cafe will get into a handful of things that just simply must be said, offers a podcast from our Investment Committee, and addresses a lot of what is going on in the world that may help explain this crazy mess. Please, if you have time, join us in the Dividend Cafe …

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It is so hard to stick to my normal Dividend Cafe format these days (not that anyone

I set it up that way because there are things in flux right now as I type that by the

I am dedicating this week’s Dividend Cafe to what happened this week, what has to

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*Please go to dividendcafe.com to read this important post**

I wrote an awful lot of stuff over the weekend for this special mid-week Dividend Cafe.  I wrote about the bizarre reality that with three days last week that the market was down nearly 1,000 points (Friday's was intra-day, but it did come back at the end of the day), the market was actually up 450 points last week.  I wrote about various peripheral economic and market realities that I thought useful in the fuller context of the current state of affairs.  And then Monday happened, and I have spent the 3 am - 6 am hours of Tuesday morning re-writing the entire thing.

I hesitate to even mention that as I type, the market futures are pointing to a 650+ point jump in the market (it had been a lot more).  First of all, that is just a small part of yesterday's collapse, and secondly, by the time I am done typing this paragraph, let alone by the time you are done reading it, the possibility of reversal or adjustment is extremely high.  These are the times in which we find ourselves.

You should have received my bulletin last night on the 11th worst market day in history that was Monday (and the worst day since the financial crisis).  I stand behind every word written yesterday afternoon and will be reiterating much of it in this Dividend Cafe.  But I really want to dive deeper into the oil saga playing out with Saudi and Russia, and I really want to unpack more of the economic ramifications of the present hysteria.  That is what this Dividend Cafe will be devoted to - a bit more meat on the bone, none of which is meant to take away from the fundamental behavioral lessons I am desperately trying to reaffirm in all communications right now.

So jump on into this special Dividend Cafe

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