The Dividend Cafe

By The Bahnsen GroupBusiness Investing

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The Dividend Cafe episodes

August 14, 2019Trump and Volatility
Topics discussed:
Volatility expectations in the weeks/months ahead
Trade war
Currency
Brexit
Hong Kong
The Fed
Asset allocation when the 10-year is 1.65% and equities face uncertainty and volatility
Within equities, what looks good?
Energy sector
Is big tech/new tech dead?
Low beta or high beta?
Outlook for dividend growth
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
55 min
August 09, 2019 When An EasyTrade War Blows Up in your Face
Topics discussed:
The last peace treaty in this trade war was supposed to be simple enough: The Chinese agreed to buy more agriculture from the United States and the U.S. agreed to lay off Huawei. Not even that was able to last. The intense stock market volatility of the last week is not the most problematic aspect of the trade war from an economic standpoint. We will focus our analysis on:
(1) The macroeconomic impact on U.S. growth, and
(2) The currency implications for global markets
The outlook for U.S. economic growth is falling apart under the pressures of this trade war. Focusing on the far right of this chart, you see the Business Investment aspect of GDP growth (blue line) accelerating significantly after President Trump was elected, in line with the CEO survey on planned capital expenditures (red line). And then you see both collapsing together in response to trade tensions.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
19 min
August 05, 2019 Trade Wars Not So Easy to Win for Investors
Topics discussed:
The market suffered its worst week of the year last week and the downside accelerated today in response to China’s currency depreciation and the general market realization that this trade war ending is nowhere in sight. We sat down as an Investment Committee this morning and recorded our best thoughts and ideas around all of this to inform and edify your understanding as it pertains to your portfolio and overall economic expectations. We particularly hope you will at least listen to the ending conclusions we offer. Please listen to this special Dividend Café podcast!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
58 min
August 02, 2019Trump and Trade Again...and Again
Topics discussed:
This week's trip to the Dividend Cafe will look at the overall health of the U.S. economy, at the state of credit markets, at all the context around the Fed's present thinking, and some very important reminders about dividend growth during this crucial time.
Investors should be prepared for two things when central bankers add stimulus to asset prices that are already operating as if they do not need any stimulus: (1) What is high is very possibly going to go higher; and (2) Bad investments will get made, and bad investments do not end well, ever. No central banker or politician can change that.
The Federal Reserve did something they have not done in nearly eleven years this week - they cut interest rates
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
31 min
July 26, 2019 A Hearing on Spending and Recessions
Markets appear to be up a tad on the week, with little volatility to show for it (as of press time, anyway). Earnings season is off to a really strong start, but I want to wait one more week to begin "report carding" earnings season (partially to not jinx it, and partially because it is a tad premature). I took advantage of this week's slow news week (sorry, Mueller) to talk about the broad economy and my perspective on where we are in the macroeconomic cycle, and what it means for all of us at this stage in the game.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
25 min
July 19, 2019 When Doves Cry
As we enter the middle part of the summer, we also enter the beginning of Q2 earnings season, and this all adds up to fun times. The equity markets puttered around a bit this week and between the "wait and see" on a China trade deal and the "wait and see" on Fed accommodation, earnings ought to be the major story for the next couple of weeks.
In the meantime, I really tried to use this week's Dividend Cafe to unpack some foundational things about the U.S. economy. What does the yield curve tell us about a recession? Why has the Fed become so accommodative to capital markets (there is an answer!)? What would make someone want our Fed to not be independent? What do pension funds tell us about the future of asset allocation? What can government spending tell us about the state of economic growth?
If all of these questions are addressed this week, and they are, plus a few MLP and Brexit comments to boot, can you see why I am so excited to have you join me in the Dividend Cafe?
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
17 min
July 12, 2019The Markets are Happy and Well "Fed"
Topics discussed:
Will the Fed Cut?
Is a recession coming?
A look at results of the tax reform bill
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
20 min
July 02, 2019Freedom Tree Planted in the Soil of Ideas
Topics discussed:
A Pregnant Pause in the Trade Tirade
Dividend Cafe; How it All Began
Emerging Markets equals Earnings Growth
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
21 min
June 28, 2019“Oh no! We’re at an all-time high!”
Topics discussed:
Markets in the first six months of 2019
Fear of Market Highs
Where we are in the trade war with China
Dividend Cafe Podcast will be merged with Advice & Insights Podcast going forward.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
17 min
June 21, 2019Stocks Vs Bonds
Topics discussed:
What stocks and bonds are saying to markets
The Fed and Credit Markets
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
17 min

About The Dividend Cafe

From the publisher's feed

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts…