Today's Post - <a href="https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2">https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2</a>
David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years ago and interest cost-to-GDP remains below historical averages. He also downplays inflation as the primary driver, citing only a 12-basis-point increase in 10-year breakeven inflation despite tariffs and oil-related supply shocks. Instead, he attributes higher yields to supply-demand dynamics from massive, high-grade AI-related debt issuance across hyperscalers and adjacent infrastructure, plus hedging/short positioning in Treasuries. He warns of narrow market breadth and “Mag Seven” as a safety trade, sees improved fixed-income attractiveness, and highlights potential opportunities in beaten-down REITs, financials, and industrials.
00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead
01:07 Why Long Yields Matter
03:10 Quick OpenAI Detour
03:52 Debt Is Not the Driver
09:12 Inflation Expectations Check
14:15 AI Debt Supply Shock
18:53 Fed Curve and Term Premium
21:30 Investor Impact and Breadth
24:05 Where Opportunity Lies Now
27:26 Final Thoughts and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2 David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years ago and interest cost-to-GDP remains below historical averages. He also downplays inflation as the primary driver, citing only a 12-basis-point increase in 10-year breakeven inflation despite tariffs and oil-related supply shocks. Instead, he attributes higher yields to supply-demand dynamics from massive, high-grade AI-related debt issuance across hyperscalers and adjacent infrastructure, plus hedging/short positioning in Treasuries. He warns of narrow market breadth and “Mag Seven” as a safety trade, sees improved fixed-income attractiveness, and highlights potential opportunities in beaten-down REITs, financials, and industrials. 00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead 01:07 Why Long Yields Matter 03:10 Quick OpenAI Detour 03:52 Debt Is Not the Driver 09:12 Inflation Expectations Check 14:15 AI Debt Supply Shock 18:53 Fed Curve and Term Premium 21:30 Investor Impact and Breadth 24:05 Where Opportunity Lies Now 27:26 Final Thoughts and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - <a href="https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2</a>
David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years ago and interest cost-to-GDP remains below historical averages. He also downplays inflation as the primary driver, citing only a 12-basis-point increase in 10-year breakeven inflation despite tariffs and oil-related supply shocks. Instead, he attributes higher yields to supply-demand dynamics from massive, high-grade AI-related debt issuance across hyperscalers and adjacent infrastructure, plus hedging/short positioning in Treasuries. He warns of narrow market breadth and “Mag Seven” as a safety trade, sees improved fixed-income attractiveness, and highlights potential opportunities in beaten-down REITs, financials, and industrials.
00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead
01:07 Why Long Yields Matter
03:10 Quick OpenAI Detour
03:52 Debt Is Not the Driver
09:12 Inflation Expectations Check
14:15 AI Debt Supply Shock
18:53 Fed Curve and Term Premium
21:30 Investor Impact and Breadth
24:05 Where Opportunity Lies Now
27:26 Final Thoughts and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

What to Make of Rising Bond Yields?

Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesting no recession signal. He reviews economic data including initial jobless claims at 197, manufacturing PMI still expanding at 55.9, and construction spending up 0.9%, ahead of an expected 90,000 nonfarm payrolls report. Responding to an article on dividend growth, he endorses the quality of dividend growers but rejects the claim that a 3–4% yield with ~7% dividend growth is unavailable, warning that funding spending by selling shares or using option overlays on dividend portfolios can cause permanent impairment; he recommends building a dividend portfolio to meet expenses and cites David Bahnsen’s book, “Profit from the Profit."
00:00 Welcome and Market Snapshot
00:48 Rates Rising and Growth Outlook
02:06 Watching Credit Spreads
02:31 GDP Earnings and Productivity
03:56 Jobs Data and Economic Calendar
04:46 Dividend Growth Strategy Debate
06:10 Why Selling Shares Hurts
06:40 Options Overlays and Better Approach
07:20 Book Recommendation and Sign Off
07:41 Disclosures and Disclaimer
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesting no recession signal. He reviews economic data including initial jobless claims at 197, manufacturing PMI still expanding at 55.9, and construction spending up 0.9%, ahead of an expected 90,000 nonfarm payrolls report. Responding to an article on dividend growth, he endorses the quality of dividend growers but rejects the claim that a 3–4% yield with ~7% dividend growth is unavailable, warning that funding spending by selling shares or using option overlays on dividend portfolios can cause permanent impairment; he recommends building a dividend portfolio to meet expenses and cites David Bahnsen’s book, “Profit from the Profit." 00:00 Welcome and Market Snapshot 00:48 Rates Rising and Growth Outlook 02:06 Watching Credit Spreads 02:31 GDP Earnings and Productivity 03:56 Jobs Data and Economic Calendar 04:46 Dividend Growth Strategy Debate 06:10 Why Selling Shares Hurts 06:40 Options Overlays and Better Approach 07:20 Book Recommendation and Sign Off 07:41 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&amp;P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesting no recession signal. He reviews economic data including initial jobless claims at 197, manufacturing PMI still expanding at 55.9, and construction spending up 0.9%, ahead of an expected 90,000 nonfarm payrolls report. Responding to an article on dividend growth, he endorses the quality of dividend growers but rejects the claim that a 3–4% yield with ~7% dividend growth is unavailable, warning that funding spending by selling shares or using option overlays on dividend portfolios can cause permanent impairment; he recommends building a dividend portfolio to meet expenses and cites David Bahnsen’s book, “Profit from the Profit."
00:00 Welcome and Market Snapshot
00:48 Rates Rising and Growth Outlook
02:06 Watching Credit Spreads
02:31 GDP Earnings and Productivity
03:56 Jobs Data and Economic Calendar
04:46 Dividend Growth Strategy Debate
06:10 Why Selling Shares Hurts
06:40 Options Overlays and Better Approach
07:20 Book Recommendation and Sign Off
07:41 Disclosures and Disclaimer
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

Thursday - October 1, 2026

Today's Post - <a href="https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe">https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe</a>
The Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises. Yield-sensitive areas have dropped in recent weeks, creating potential recovery setups for REITs and alternative asset managers as fundamentals like asset gathering and slowing private credit retail redemptions remain solid. President Trump announced a federal AI “super intelligence” task force chaired by Jay Clayton. With midterms four weeks away, Senate control is described as a 50/50 proposition. Economically, Friday’s jobs report was weak (29,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%, soft wage growth), shipping costs have surged, ISM Services dipped, and October rate-hike odds fell to 22% while year-end hike odds remain near 90% amid cautious Fed comments.
00:00 Midday Recording Setup
01:24 Earnings Season Expectations
02:33 Yield Sensitive Selloff
03:58 AI Task Force Policy
05:01 Midterm Senate Outlook
06:35 Weak Jobs Report
07:29 Rates Inflation Signals
08:28 Energy Midstream Notes
08:41 Wrap Up Disclosures
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe The Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises. Yield-sensitive areas have dropped in recent weeks, creating potential recovery setups for REITs and alternative asset managers as fundamentals like asset gathering and slowing private credit retail redemptions remain solid. President Trump announced a federal AI “super intelligence” task force chaired by Jay Clayton. With midterms four weeks away, Senate control is described as a 50/50 proposition. Economically, Friday’s jobs report was weak (29,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%, soft wage growth), shipping costs have surged, ISM Services dipped, and October rate-hike odds fell to 22% while year-end hike odds remain near 90% amid cautious Fed comments. 00:00 Midday Recording Setup 01:24 Earnings Season Expectations 02:33 Yield Sensitive Selloff 03:58 AI Task Force Policy 05:01 Midterm Senate Outlook 06:35 Weak Jobs Report 07:29 Rates Inflation Signals 08:28 Energy Midstream Notes 08:41 Wrap Up Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - <a href="https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe</a>
The Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises. Yield-sensitive areas have dropped in recent weeks, creating potential recovery setups for REITs and alternative asset managers as fundamentals like asset gathering and slowing private credit retail redemptions remain solid. President Trump announced a federal AI “super intelligence” task force chaired by Jay Clayton. With midterms four weeks away, Senate control is described as a 50/50 proposition. Economically, Friday’s jobs report was weak (29,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%, soft wage growth), shipping costs have surged, ISM Services dipped, and October rate-hike odds fell to 22% while year-end hike odds remain near 90% amid cautious Fed comments.
00:00 Midday Recording Setup
01:24 Earnings Season Expectations
02:33 Yield Sensitive Selloff
03:58 AI Task Force Policy
05:01 Midterm Senate Outlook
06:35 Weak Jobs Report
07:29 Rates Inflation Signals
08:28 Energy Midstream Notes
08:41 Wrap Up Disclosures
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

Monday - October 5, 2026

In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen notes the stock market was open while the bond market was closed for a government/bank holiday, which he gave distortive given markets’ sensitivity to yields, and points viewers to Friday’s bond-yield episode. He recaps markets: Dow +196, S&P slightly down, Nasdaq down nearly 0.5%, with energy leading (oil above $93) and technology lagging. He emphasizes weakening market breadth and concentration, citing an unusually large gap between average S&P stock moves and the index, a low share of stocks above their 200-day moving average, and that the top five S&P companies equal the bottom 434 by market cap. He previews earnings, focusing on hyperscaler AI/semiconductor spending expectations and OpenAI/Anthropic profitability risks. He covers weekend geopolitical news (Russia/Ukraine energy ceasefire claims; Houthi attacks), Senate race forecasts, low consumer savings, housing affordability ratios, and Fed hike probabilities.
00:00 Holiday Market Caveat
01:13 Bond Yields Recap
01:49 Market Moves Today
02:32 Breadth Warning Signs
04:39 Earnings Season Focus
06:28 AI Capex Reality Check
07:34 Weekend Geopolitical News
08:38 Senate Map Outlook
11:30 Savings Versus Spending
13:49 Housing And Fed Watch
14:45 Midstream And Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen notes the stock market was open while the bond market was closed for a government/bank holiday, which he gave distortive given markets’ sensitivity to yields, and points viewers to Friday’s bond-yield episode. He recaps markets: Dow +196, S&P slightly down, Nasdaq down nearly 0.5%, with energy leading (oil above $93) and technology lagging. He emphasizes weakening market breadth and concentration, citing an unusually large gap between average S&P stock moves and the index, a low share of stocks above their 200-day moving average, and that the top five S&P companies equal the bottom 434 by market cap. He previews earnings, focusing on hyperscaler AI/semiconductor spending expectations and OpenAI/Anthropic profitability risks. He covers weekend geopolitical news (Russia/Ukraine energy ceasefire claims; Houthi attacks), Senate race forecasts, low consumer savings, housing affordability ratios, and Fed hike probabilities. 00:00 Holiday Market Caveat 01:13 Bond Yields Recap 01:49 Market Moves Today 02:32 Breadth Warning Signs 04:39 Earnings Season Focus 06:28 AI Capex Reality Check 07:34 Weekend Geopolitical News 08:38 Senate Map Outlook 11:30 Savings Versus Spending 13:49 Housing And Fed Watch 14:45 Midstream And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen notes the stock market was open while the bond market was closed for a government/bank holiday, which he gave distortive given markets’ sensitivity to yields, and points viewers to Friday’s bond-yield episode. He recaps markets: Dow +196, S&amp;P slightly down, Nasdaq down nearly 0.5%, with energy leading (oil above $93) and technology lagging. He emphasizes weakening market breadth and concentration, citing an unusually large gap between average S&amp;P stock moves and the index, a low share of stocks above their 200-day moving average, and that the top five S&amp;P companies equal the bottom 434 by market cap. He previews earnings, focusing on hyperscaler AI/semiconductor spending expectations and OpenAI/Anthropic profitability risks. He covers weekend geopolitical news (Russia/Ukraine energy ceasefire claims; Houthi attacks), Senate race forecasts, low consumer savings, housing affordability ratios, and Fed hike probabilities.
00:00 Holiday Market Caveat
01:13 Bond Yields Recap
01:49 Market Moves Today
02:32 Breadth Warning Signs
04:39 Earnings Season Focus
06:28 AI Capex Reality Check
07:34 Weekend Geopolitical News
08:38 Senate Map Outlook
11:30 Savings Versus Spending
13:49 Housing And Fed Watch
14:45 Midstream And Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

Monday - October 12, 2026

Brian Szytel recaps a modestly lower, mixed market day with the S&P flat, Dow down 180, and Nasdaq down about 40, led by weakness in semis and some AI names. With CPI due tomorrow, markets were largely rudderless; rates fell across the curve, especially long-end, further flattening the yield curve. Early bank earnings were generally positive even as financial stocks fell. He notes year-to-date gains alongside stronger earnings growth, implying multiple contraction and cheaper stocks. The main stress area is CCC credit, where yields are 15–17% and spreads have widened about 300 bps in five months, while broader credit remains constructive. He discusses bull market context, profit margins (Mag Seven effects, pricing power, PPI vs CPI), and notes NFIB optimism (97.9) and existing home sales (4.0M) met expectations; bonds rallied ahead of CPI.
00:00 Market Wrap Overview
00:29 Earnings Season Begins
00:54 Rates and Yield Curve
01:38 Credit Stress Signals
02:33 Earnings Growth Outlook
02:58 Bull Market Context
04:57 Profit Margins Explained
06:45 Economic Data Check
07:09 CPI Preview and Signoff
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

Brian Szytel recaps a modestly lower, mixed market day with the S&P flat, Dow down 180, and Nasdaq down about 40, led by weakness in semis and some AI names. With CPI due tomorrow, markets were largely rudderless; rates fell across the curve, especially long-end, further flattening the yield curve. Early bank earnings were generally positive even as financial stocks fell. He notes year-to-date gains alongside stronger earnings growth, implying multiple contraction and cheaper stocks. The main stress area is CCC credit, where yields are 15–17% and spreads have widened about 300 bps in five months, while broader credit remains constructive. He discusses bull market context, profit margins (Mag Seven effects, pricing power, PPI vs CPI), and notes NFIB optimism (97.9) and existing home sales (4.0M) met expectations; bonds rallied ahead of CPI. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:29 Earnings Season Begins 00:54 Rates and Yield Curve 01:38 Credit Stress Signals 02:33 Earnings Growth Outlook 02:58 Bull Market Context 04:57 Profit Margins Explained 06:45 Economic Data Check 07:09 CPI Preview and Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a modestly lower, mixed market day with the S&amp;P flat, Dow down 180, and Nasdaq down about 40, led by weakness in semis and some AI names. With CPI due tomorrow, markets were largely rudderless; rates fell across the curve, especially long-end, further flattening the yield curve. Early bank earnings were generally positive even as financial stocks fell. He notes year-to-date gains alongside stronger earnings growth, implying multiple contraction and cheaper stocks. The main stress area is CCC credit, where yields are 15–17% and spreads have widened about 300 bps in five months, while broader credit remains constructive. He discusses bull market context, profit margins (Mag Seven effects, pricing power, PPI vs CPI), and notes NFIB optimism (97.9) and existing home sales (4.0M) met expectations; bonds rallied ahead of CPI.
00:00 Market Wrap Overview
00:29 Earnings Season Begins
00:54 Rates and Yield Curve
01:38 Credit Stress Signals
02:33 Earnings Growth Outlook
02:58 Bull Market Context
04:57 Profit Margins Explained
06:45 Economic Data Check
07:09 CPI Preview and Signoff
Links mentioned in this episode:
<a href="https://dividendcafe.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">DividendCafe.com</a>
<a href="https://thebahnsengroup.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">TheBahnsenGroup.com</a>

Tuesday - October 13, 2026

The New Normal is the Old - Sept. 16, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

The New Normal is the Old - Sept. 16, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

The New Normal is the Old - Sept. 16, 2016

Dividend Cafe - Fall is Here: Will it Mean a Fall is Near? Sept 9 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Dividend Cafe - Fall is Here: Will it Mean a Fall is Near? Sept 9 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Dividend Cafe - Fall is Here: Will it Mean a Fall is Near?  Sept 9 2016

Markets and College Football: A Time For Serious Focus – Sept. 2, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Markets and College Football: A Time For Serious Focus – Sept. 2, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Markets and College Football: A Time For Serious Focus – Sept. 2, 2016

Growth and Debt and Everything in Between - August 26, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Growth and Debt and Everything in Between - August 26, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Growth and Debt and Everything in Between - August 26, 2016

Rio, Rubio, and Your Portfolio - August 12, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Rio, Rubio, and Your Portfolio - August 12, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Rio, Rubio, and Your Portfolio - August 12, 2016

A Gold Medal for Disciplined Investing - August 5, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

A Gold Medal for Disciplined Investing - August 5, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

A Gold Medal for Disciplined Investing - August 5, 2016

Earnings and Elections Cap a Huge July - July 29, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Earnings and Elections Cap a Huge July - July 29, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

Earnings and Elections Cap a Huge July - July 29, 2016

A Win Streak for the Ages and Company Profits Galore – July 22, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

A Win Streak for the Ages and Company Profits Galore – July 22, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

A Win Streak for the Ages and Company Profits Galore – July 22, 2016

All Time Market Highs Mean ... - July 15, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

All Time Market Highs Mean ... - July 15, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

All Time Market Highs Mean ... - July 15, 2016

What To Expect for the Rest of the Year - July 8, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

What To Expect for the Rest of the Year - July 8, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group

What To Expect for the Rest of the Year - July 8, 2016

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business.  He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

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Investing

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

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