Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JnoIqp

Although off the lows for the day, stocks closed down for a second day to start off the new quarter. 10-Year yields have now moved back towards the high end of their four-month range at 4.35%, which is about the level where we have seen markets start to pay more attention which is what today was about. Fed futures are still at 50/50 for a June cut and roughly 70% for July, and what’s being repriced into markets is rates that may stay a little higher this year.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cDHCqg

There is a lot of good stuff in the podcast today and, as always, we welcome your questions and curiosities.

Dividend Cafe looked at a number of things around the Fed, market valuation, inflation, and more on Friday.

We have some very exciting things in the works about our plans for daily and weekly content delivery, with even more additions and refinements coming. Meetings are underway and nothing will be ready to announce imminently but we are excited to bring what we are doing to another level.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cDi2Sq

The first quarter of 2024 is in the history books (both because it is done, so therefore now history – and because it was a big quarter with a lot of surprises for market pundits). As you go into your Easter Weekend and enjoy the market holiday that is Good Friday, take a trip around the horn as we look at history, market valuations, passive investing, credit, money supply, financial conditions, and more.

Jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TT4Scl

Another generally positive day in markets with today marking the 99th consecutive trading day that the SP500 closed above its 50 day moving average. This has happened many times in history believe it or not, and certainly isn’t even half way to 1995’s run of 257 (back when I was graduating high school), but its impressive none the less.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TTReFO

Markets traded positively for most of the day, although ended up closing slightly down by 31 points. This is the 10th time since 1950 that the SP500 has been up for 5 months in a row, so it certainly has happened enough before, but interesting that when I looked at those time periods 12 months following, they were also all in positive territory as well. All that said, earnings and fundamentals are going to have to pull their weight for that to happen an 11th time from these valuations (see David’s comments below).

Historically speaking, it’s also rare to see markets top when there is such broad participation in new 52-week highs. Typically, that internal breadth starts to show cracks before the overall market reaches its cycle peak and turns lower, and that is not what we are seeing today. Energy, by the way, has reaccelerated, with now 80% of the sector at 3-month highs, as that market rotation and broadening of sector returns continues.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49cizrs

Greetings from Dallas, Texas where I am the next two days before then getting to Houston on Wednesday and then to the TBG offices in Austin and doing three events there for a couple of days before returning to NYC on Friday. Today’s DCT is housing-heavy with plenty else in the mix to make it worth your time.

Dividend Cafe looked further into the time-tested wisdom of dividend growth investing, the historical factors that involved over the past few decades, and the lay of the land in the years ahead.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4924jl3

Predictions are fun. They are not, though, at the heart of the investment business. They can be very important in the methodology and process of some speculators, and they can even be marginally additive for some investors. But “predictions” are not quite the same as “calculations,” and they are categorically different from “belief systems.” At the core of all good investors lies a philosophy. I find it an unimprovable joy in life to study the investing philosophies of great investors. I never, ever, ever find one who relies on “feel” or “just has that Midas touch.” That very thinking is for simpletons and know-nothings. Great investors execute well off of a cogent philosophy. Bad investors either fail to execute or have an improperly formed philosophy (or, worst of all, options; they have no discernable philosophy at all).

The Bahnsen Group embraces being defined by our investment philosophy, and we embrace being known by the role dividend growth plays within that philosophy. Dividend growth is not new. In fact, what is [relatively] new is NOT viewing the receipt of cash flow from the risk investments you make as a key objective in your investing and a significant part of your anticipated return. In today’s Dividend Cafe, we address the history of investor distraction from dividend monetization and the reorientation that we believe is about to shift the focus back to where it belongs. We are not talking a “new normal” but rather a “return to normal normal.”

So jump on in to a very normal Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3vpQejx

Markets built on yesterdays rally today closing higher for a third straight session. For the markets, the porridge-is-just-right narrative around the balance of strong economic and employment backdrop combined with disinflation and a Fed that is now talking about slowing QT and accepting PCE at 2.6% this year (vs 2%) before they would begin cutting interest rates. Today we also had jobless claims and existing home sales both positive and supportive of that narrative as well. Keep in mind please, that markets are a forward looking pricing mechanism, and a lot of soft-landing narrative at this point is fully baked in. The question will be on fundamentals keeping up with those higher valuations names from here, and I still suspect there will be the haves vs. have-nots in that regard and the time for being selective here is very important.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43pRAau

Generally, a pretty market-friendly statement from the Fed, with some upgrading on the economy with GDP estimates moving up from 1.4% to 2.0%, they lowered their unemployment rate forecasts from 4.1% to 4% and raised the Core PCE forecasts by two-tenths to 2.6% for the year (and we are already at 2.8% now mind you).

Links mentioned in this episode:

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ViQThg

Markets built on gains quite nicely throughout the day today, with the Dow up 320 points, on an uncharacteristically consistent trading day heading into tomorrow’s FOMC decision and statement. The back up in rates we have seen the past two weeks eased a little today as well, with 10s down three basis points, which also supported our generally positive day. We are still in the range I mentioned on the 10-year, just at the higher end of it with 4.35%, the high watermark on the year so far.

Links mentioned in this episode: