The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r79obX

Thursday afternoon I received an inquiry through the “questions” portal whereby a reader asked “how one is supposed to go about selecting a financial advisor” – attaching to the question the appropriate sub-questions around trust, qualifications, needs, and services. I know I have addressed this topic over the years but I think it has been at least five years if not longer, and it is a topic that you may be shocked to hear I have many opinions on.

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EGfov8

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised their rate to 4%, and bond yields FELL (go figure) – mostly because markets price in today what they believe about the future.

Job hirings have slowed, but job firings have too. We live in interesting times.

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44MsGRn

Today was a heavily anticipated news day for markets, with August CPI coming largely in line with expectations at .6% on headline inflation for the month and 3.7% year-over-year. As we had expected, higher energy prices moved that headline number, with gasoline specifically up 10.5%, which accounted for almost half of the total move higher in CPI. The Fed pays more attention to core CPI (ex food and energy), which was up .3% on the month and stands now at 4.3% y/y. All said, we got about what we had expected today: decreasing shelter costs offset a rise in energy prices to some degree, and Fed futures didn’t budge much. Yields were up a few basis points across most of the curve, and stocks held in.

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PExy76

Mexico has the strongest currency in the world this year. Its stock market is on fire (near the best in the world this year), It has overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States (did you know that?). Direct investment from foreign countries into Mexico is up +40% in 2023 alone. Do you see why I refer to “near-shoring” as much as “on-shoring“? The diminishment of supply chain dependency on China in the United States is happening. But it may prove to be much more of a Mexico story than a Rust Belt story.

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4680dH4

The first thing I will say before delving into this September 11 edition of DC Today as I sit here in New York City is that I honor those who were killed that day, and I will never, ever forget the atrocity that it was. I have written about this day in a very special Dividend Cafe before (I encourage you to re-read it), but regardless, whether it has been 22 years or when it is one day, 52 years, I will never, ever forget.

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PxghfG

Today, I would like to use the last five years to make some broader points about the realities of investing. Evergreen realities are, well, permanent. Yet we find within the last five years some serious bold-faced reiteration of these realities to which I refer (and as you will soon see, there actually is a particular single reality most on my radar this week).

So, in this week’s Dividend Cafe, we will look at the last five years and extract from this little short-term window some big-picture lessons that are sure to matter for more than just the last five years. Consider it part “History” (albeit recent history) and part “Investing 101” …

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe!

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/466evrH

Markets acted a little more 2022-ish today, with defensives all up and Technology way down. Reports of a Chinese iPhone ban from government departments took a toll, and the U.S. dollar may be headed to its eighth consecutive weekly increase (longest streak since 2005 if it holds).

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LcqThy

Oil is the story of markets yet again, with Brent now passing $90 and WTI Crude passing $87. The idea that oil was between $65 and $75 for months and we did nothing to help re-fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is just surreal to me. These prices at now 10-month highs are sure to exacerbate the delta between core and headline inflation in the months ahead.

Just 37% of companies in the S&P 500 were above their 50-day moving average this morning as internal momentum continues to dissipate.

China and Japan are not happy about the dollar’s recent rise and are pledging decisive action to arrest their own currency’s drop relative to the U.S. dollar.

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r2cE8d

This is the kind of DC Today I love love love writing – where I really get to absorb a lot of material and bring pen to paper (or finger to keys) in all categories. I always loved this format the most, and being able to do this long-form version once a week is a true joy for me. Doing it every single day as I did for quite some time (though today’s is fuller than even the old format normally was) just became way too much, and I do hope the new program (long-form once a week, shorter form with daily podcast/video three times a week, Dividend Cafe on Friday) is working for everyone. I certainly solicit feedback about that. But in the meantime, enjoy this first post-Labor Day “fall and football are here” version of the DC Today. Note the deep dive into Public Policy and Housing (with all categories covered).

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/487nJFU

So you may have seen in yesterday’s DC Today that my plans for an out-of-country few days with my wife this week, unplugged from work and electronics, was foiled yet again, this time by Hurricane Franklin. We have a running list over the last nearly 25 years of that which has prevented such an “unplugging,” and truth-be-told, we just are what we are. It seems to be a bigger focus to others that we “relax” and “take it easy” than it is to us. We accept this is a full-time job.

But yes, it was not the week we had thought was coming. This week’s Dividend Cafe is the Dividend Cafe I thought was coming, though. A long list of really thoughtful questions is worked through covering such topics as the Fed, private credit, growth investing, the U.S. dollar, Saudi Arabia, the 2024 election, municipal bonds, and so much more. It is a lot of fun and sure to offer something for everyone.

So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. There may be a hurricane in Bermuda, but there is clarity, perspective and answers, in this place where we belong.

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