The Energy Desk

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ERCOT set a new peak daily demand record of 91 GW on July 22, 2026, topping the previous 2023 high of roughly 86 GW. Alex walks through the data behind it: a hotter-than-normal July, a step-change in solar and battery capacity, and — counterintuitively — a decline in gas-fired generation despite record load. Using ERCOT as a microcosm for broader Lower 48 trends, the episode shows how solar and storage are reshaping the duck curve and pulling demand away from the power sector's traditional swing fuel. Note: this episode is chart-heavy — video version recommended.

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For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at [email protected].

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

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Recorded Thursday, July 16, as U.S. forces entered a sixth consecutive night of strikes across Iran, Alex and Mohit cover a market that has retraced much of its recent move and partly repriced the conflict premium.

On crude, speculative positioning made a fast round trip — from heavily short before the conflict, to near the top of its recent long range, and back to short — alongside a forward curve that swung into contango and back. With vessel attacks and U.S. strikes resuming, early short covering is now appearing. The geopolitical picture has escalated across several fronts: the blockade is back in effect, OFAC sanctions have been reinstated, and Houthi activity is one to watch, with the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline as the next chokepoints in question.

Refined products have been the standout. Russia's diesel export ban, a response to Ukrainian attacks on refining infrastructure, runs through at least the end of July and may be extended. The result: diesel crack spreads — which measure refining margins — have climbed above the outright price of crude. Mohit's point is that crude supply can return quickly, but refining capacity cannot, concentrating the pressure in product barrels.

On natural gas, bullish and bearish drivers are competing. Qatar's halt at Ras Laffan and low European storage support winter and first-quarter pricing, while U.S. storage above seasonal norms and a confirmed, strengthening El Niño point toward a warmer winter and a heavy end-of-season balance. With bearish positioning crowded, the hosts flag room for sharp short covering — and note that cold in two of the three major demand regions can still produce winter fireworks.

The full episode covers spec positioning, the LNG picture, and hurricane-season considerations.

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For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at [email protected].

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

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Find this episode on the Mobius website.

Recorded on a Friday afternoon in Houston, Alex Melvin and Mohit Arora return to the Energy Desk for a crude-focused conversation covering six weeks of price action that took prompt month futures from above $80 to the high $60s — and the positioning, supply, and demand dynamics behind the move.

The conversation opens with spec positioning. Brent shorts had moved from near-historic levels before the conflict, to near-historic longs at the peak, and have since made the full round trip back. Physical premiums that ran well above historical norms during the disruption have moved into discount territory. Mohit traces the pattern: the market spent most of this period chasing the move rather than anticipating it.

On supply, Alex walks through why headline disruption figures were likely overstated throughout. When accounting for cargo rerouting and dark transits, the effective supply loss was running below what was widely reported — and that gap widened as transit activity through the Strait of Hormuz quietly increased. Production recovery across Kuwait, Iraq, and other Gulf producers is also tracking at the pace those producers had indicated from the start, with a majority of impacted output expected back within roughly two months of conflict onset.

The demand side received less attention during the peak disruption period but is now a meaningful factor. Chinese crude imports roughly halved between the start of the conflict and May, and remained sharply reduced into June. That slower-moving dynamic, combined with backlog barrels now clearing the Strait, has pushed the market toward a transient period of supply excess ahead of any demand recovery.

The episode closes with the longer-term infrastructure picture: UAE's plans to expand non-Hormuz export capacity, Iraq's pipeline routes to the Red Sea and Mediterranean, and the open question of what Saudi Arabia does with the East-West pipeline as Gulf lanes reopen. The Hormuz tolling conversation and nuclear negotiations remain unresolved. Mohit and Alex note that the pace of alternative route investment may, over time, reduce the Strait's weight as a global chokepoint — though both emphasize the near-term picture still has plenty of variables in motion.

For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at [email protected].

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

Regional power market dynamics, shifting resource usage, and the reasons to pay attention to your basis risk exposure

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The discussion starts with a primer on Independent System Operators and the distinct fuel mixes and reliability profiles that shape each U.S. regional grid. From there, the focus turns to what makes ERCOT structurally different: no forward capacity auction, a reliance on scarcity pricing, and a hub-versus-zone basis dynamic driven by wind concentration and transmission constraints in West Texas.

Casey and Jason explain why historical basis settlement isn't enough for industrial buyers — forecasting congestion, generation additions, and retirements matters more — and close on the data center demand question: committed ERCOT load that could nearly double peak demand, forward curves that haven't repriced, and a continuous-power reliability requirement that reshapes the resource conversation.

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For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at [email protected].

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

Alex Melvin and Mohit Arora cover what has changed across the crude complex since late March. They walk through the U.S. shift from kinetic operations to an indefinite ceasefire and economic blockade against Iran, with Iranian storage now close to saturation and Kharg Island showing no loadings on satellite. The conversation also covers the UAE's May 1 exit from OPEC and its plan to roughly double Fujairah pipeline capacity, part of a broader regional move to build export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Alex and Mohit close on why this is primarily a refined-products story rather than a crude one — with gasoline, jet, and distillate inventories swinging from the top of their seasonal ranges to the bottom — alongside demand destruction, market-structure shifts, and the downside risks that have drawn less attention.

For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at [email protected].

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

Recorded Monday, March 30, Mohit and Alex cover where the Middle East supply disruption stands four weeks in — separating what the underlying data shows from the figures circulating in media coverage.

Regional production curtailments are running between 8 and 10 million barrels per day, with Iraq and Kuwait bearing the largest share. Saudi Arabia has rerouted exports to Red Sea terminals via the East-West pipeline and is now operating near capacity there. Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued, with vessels transiting dark — AIS transponders off — and Iran granting passage to ships affiliated with non-hostile countries. Japan, China, and India together accounted for roughly two-thirds of Strait flows through 2025 and have been among the first to resume transits.

On pricing, the episode covers why the market response has been more measured than some historical supply disruptions might suggest — global inventory positions entering 2026 were considerably more comfortable than they were ahead of the Russia disruption in 2022. Diesel crack spreads — which measure refining margins — have moved into demand destruction territory, and that pressure is beginning to register at the pump and in Asian jet fuel markets. The Brent-WTI spread has also widened, reflecting how geopolitical risk concentrates in waterborne crude benchmarks while WTI's landlocked characteristics give it a different risk profile.

The episode closes on resolution scenarios and what a ceasefire or diplomatic framework could mean for the forward curve — including a consortium-based Strait management structure, modeled on the Suez Canal, as one candidate path — and why the supply landscape at the end of this conflict will look considerably different from the one that preceded it.

For deeper coverage of the topics discussed in this episode, Mobius publishes ongoing research and market analysis at mobiusriskgroup.com. If you have questions specific to your portfolio or hedging position, reach out directly — the team is available to discuss at [email protected].

The Energy Desk is a podcast from Mobius Risk Group. Follow the show wherever you get your podcasts.

Recorded Wednesday, March 4, as U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran were still unfolding — Mohit and Alex break down the market dynamics and what it means for participants across the sector.

The immediate pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. When insurers pulled coverage for vessels transiting the region, tanker traffic dropped sharply — effectively stalling a significant share of global oil supply. Iraq compounded the disruption by curtailing production and halting a key pipeline export route. Crude benchmarks spiked to start the week before stabilizing Wednesday, after the Trump administration announced an insurance backstop and potential naval escorts through the Strait.

The conversation also covers product markets — specifically diesel.

They also cover what could reverse this move: sanctioned barrels already on the water, China sitting on substantial onshore inventories, a larger-than-expected OPEC increase, and Kazakhstan supply coming back online. A market that flipped from net short to net long in days could see a sharp reversal if the geopolitical situation de-escalates.

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📧 Questions or want to talk through what this means for your portfolio: [email protected]

This commentary reflects the views of Mobius Risk Group and is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Episode Summary:

In this episode of The Energy Desk, Mohit Arora and Alex Melvin break down the evolving geopolitical landscape between the United States and Iran and its significant impact on global energy markets. They dig into the fundamental trends shaping crude oil prices, from supply and demand dynamics to the influence of speculative trading. The hosts also analyze the potential for future conflict and the implications for regional stability and energy flows.

Key Topics Discussed:

• US-Iran Relations: The episode provides a detailed overview of the current state of US-Iran relations, including the ongoing nuclear negotiations and the potential for a new agreement. The hosts discuss the various factors influencing the talks, from Iran's enrichment activities to the role of regional proxies.
• Energy Market Impact: The podcast explores the significant impact of the US-Iran tensions on the energy markets. The hosts analyze the recent price movements in crude oil, the backwardation in the futures curve, and the surge in call option buying as traders hedge against potential disruptions.
• Supply and Demand Fundamentals: The episode examines the global supply and demand picture, including the role of OPEC+ production cuts, the release of strategic petroleum reserves, and the impact of sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports. The hosts also discuss the state of global inventories and the outlook for the coming months.
• The Board of Peace Event: The podcast references President Trump's remarks at the Board of Peace event, where he discussed Iran's role in regional stability and the prospects for a new deal. The hosts analyze the President's comments and their potential implications for the ongoing negotiations.
• Investment Opportunities: The episode concludes with a discussion of potential investment opportunities in the current market environment. The hosts highlight the attractiveness of call options and other strategies for hedging against upside price risk.

References:

[1] The White House. (2026, February 19). President Trump Participates in the Board of Peace Event [Video]. The White House.

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In this episode of The Energy Desk, host Alex Melvin is joined by Wil Harris of Energy Substantiation to discuss energy commodity tokenization. Wil explains how his company, EnSub, is pioneering this space with the launch of WTI Coin, a digital token backed one-to-one by physical crude oil. They explore the significance of the Genius Act, a key piece of bipartisan legislation that has established a regulatory path for such innovations in the United States.

The conversation highlights the dual advantages of this new model. For investors, tokenization offers a simplified, more direct form of exposure to oil as a macro asset—what Wil calls "better beta"—free from the complexities and costs of the futures market. For producers, it presents a unique opportunity to unlock the value of their flowing inventory, turning barrels in pipelines and storage into a source of low-cost working capital. Wil provides a detailed look into how Energy Substation is making this possible, ensuring the financial integrity and fungibility of the tokenized assets. The discussion also touches on the company's future plans, including the upcoming launch of a natural gas token and the potential drivers for its adoption, such as the massive energy consumption of the burgeoning AI and data center industries.

00:00 - Introduction to the concept of a tokenized oil asset.

01:26 - Welcoming Wil Harris and introducing Energy Substantiation and the concept of WTI Coin.

03:17 - Discussion of the Genius Act and its importance for tokenization.

06:32 - The concept of "walmartization" of the oil and gas industry for investors.

09:21 - The technical side of tokenizing flowing commodities.

12:56 - The scale of the opportunity and the vision for a "bank of oil."

14:28 - How producers can benefit from tokenizing their supply.

17:00 - Plans for a natural gas token and its link to data centers.

19:38 - How different crude qualities are handled in the tokenization process.

22:12 - Next steps for Energy Substation and how to get involved.

24:01 - Closing remarks and podcast outro.

Resources

• Connect with Wil Harris on LinkedIn
• Explore EnergySubstantiation.com

Listen & more show notes on MobiusRiskGroup.com

In this episode of The Energy Desk, Drew Boyce and Alex Melvin dive into the aftermath of Winter Storm Fern and its significant impact on natural gas markets in early February 2026. The discussion covers production freeze-offs reaching 14-15 BCF per day, unprecedented price volatility in the Northeast with basis points in the $140s, and the stark reality of financial versus physical market settlements.

 The hosts explore the regional disparities in how the storm affected different producing basins, with Haynesville experiencing unexpected production losses due to ice and precipitation. They analyze the dramatic shift in speculator positioning, with over 100,000 short contracts being covered in just three weeks and discuss the implications of warmer weather forecasts.

 Looking forward, Drew and Alex examine the challenges facing West Texas producers as WAHA basis returns to negative territory (reaching -$1.20), the delayed timeline for the Golden Pass LNG facility coming online, and the broader 2026 outlook, including potential data center demand, summer weather patterns, and the critical balance between production growth and LNG capacity additions.