Recorded Wednesday, March 4, as U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran were still unfolding — Mohit and Alex break down the market dynamics and what it means for participants across the sector.

The immediate pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. When insurers pulled coverage for vessels transiting the region, tanker traffic dropped sharply — effectively stalling a significant share of global oil supply. Iraq compounded the disruption by curtailing production and halting a key pipeline export route. Crude benchmarks spiked to start the week before stabilizing Wednesday, after the Trump administration announced an insurance backstop and potential naval escorts through the Strait.

The conversation also covers product markets — specifically diesel.

They also cover what could reverse this move: sanctioned barrels already on the water, China sitting on substantial onshore inventories, a larger-than-expected OPEC increase, and Kazakhstan supply coming back online. A market that flipped from net short to net long in days could see a sharp reversal if the geopolitical situation de-escalates.

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This commentary reflects the views of Mobius Risk Group and is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Episode Summary:

In this episode of The Energy Desk, Mohit Arora and Alex Melvin break down the evolving geopolitical landscape between the United States and Iran and its significant impact on global energy markets. They dig into the fundamental trends shaping crude oil prices, from supply and demand dynamics to the influence of speculative trading. The hosts also analyze the potential for future conflict and the implications for regional stability and energy flows.

Key Topics Discussed:

• US-Iran Relations: The episode provides a detailed overview of the current state of US-Iran relations, including the ongoing nuclear negotiations and the potential for a new agreement. The hosts discuss the various factors influencing the talks, from Iran's enrichment activities to the role of regional proxies.
• Energy Market Impact: The podcast explores the significant impact of the US-Iran tensions on the energy markets. The hosts analyze the recent price movements in crude oil, the backwardation in the futures curve, and the surge in call option buying as traders hedge against potential disruptions.
• Supply and Demand Fundamentals: The episode examines the global supply and demand picture, including the role of OPEC+ production cuts, the release of strategic petroleum reserves, and the impact of sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports. The hosts also discuss the state of global inventories and the outlook for the coming months.
• The Board of Peace Event: The podcast references President Trump's remarks at the Board of Peace event, where he discussed Iran's role in regional stability and the prospects for a new deal. The hosts analyze the President's comments and their potential implications for the ongoing negotiations.
• Investment Opportunities: The episode concludes with a discussion of potential investment opportunities in the current market environment. The hosts highlight the attractiveness of call options and other strategies for hedging against upside price risk.

References:

[1] The White House. (2026, February 19). President Trump Participates in the Board of Peace Event [Video]. The White House.

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In this episode of The Energy Desk, host Alex Melvin is joined by Wil Harris of Energy Substantiation to discuss energy commodity tokenization. Wil explains how his company, EnSub, is pioneering this space with the launch of WTI Coin, a digital token backed one-to-one by physical crude oil. They explore the significance of the Genius Act, a key piece of bipartisan legislation that has established a regulatory path for such innovations in the United States.

The conversation highlights the dual advantages of this new model. For investors, tokenization offers a simplified, more direct form of exposure to oil as a macro asset—what Wil calls "better beta"—free from the complexities and costs of the futures market. For producers, it presents a unique opportunity to unlock the value of their flowing inventory, turning barrels in pipelines and storage into a source of low-cost working capital. Wil provides a detailed look into how Energy Substation is making this possible, ensuring the financial integrity and fungibility of the tokenized assets. The discussion also touches on the company's future plans, including the upcoming launch of a natural gas token and the potential drivers for its adoption, such as the massive energy consumption of the burgeoning AI and data center industries.

00:00 - Introduction to the concept of a tokenized oil asset.

01:26 - Welcoming Wil Harris and introducing Energy Substantiation and the concept of WTI Coin.

03:17 - Discussion of the Genius Act and its importance for tokenization.

06:32 - The concept of "walmartization" of the oil and gas industry for investors.

09:21 - The technical side of tokenizing flowing commodities.

12:56 - The scale of the opportunity and the vision for a "bank of oil."

14:28 - How producers can benefit from tokenizing their supply.

17:00 - Plans for a natural gas token and its link to data centers.

19:38 - How different crude qualities are handled in the tokenization process.

22:12 - Next steps for Energy Substation and how to get involved.

24:01 - Closing remarks and podcast outro.

Resources

• Connect with Wil Harris on LinkedIn
• Explore EnergySubstantiation.com

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In this episode of The Energy Desk, Drew Boyce and Alex Melvin dive into the aftermath of Winter Storm Fern and its significant impact on natural gas markets in early February 2026. The discussion covers production freeze-offs reaching 14-15 BCF per day, unprecedented price volatility in the Northeast with basis points in the $140s, and the stark reality of financial versus physical market settlements.

 The hosts explore the regional disparities in how the storm affected different producing basins, with Haynesville experiencing unexpected production losses due to ice and precipitation. They analyze the dramatic shift in speculator positioning, with over 100,000 short contracts being covered in just three weeks and discuss the implications of warmer weather forecasts.

 Looking forward, Drew and Alex examine the challenges facing West Texas producers as WAHA basis returns to negative territory (reaching -$1.20), the delayed timeline for the Golden Pass LNG facility coming online, and the broader 2026 outlook, including potential data center demand, summer weather patterns, and the critical balance between production growth and LNG capacity additions.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Natural Gas Market Dynamics

02:52 Cold Weather Impact on Production and Prices

06:01 Market Sentiment and Speculation Shifts

08:49 Forecasting Challenges and Production Outlook

12:01 Regional Production and Weather Effects

14:47 European and Asian Market Interplay

18:04 LNG Demand and Future Capacity Growth

20:59 Volatility and Storage Capacity Concerns

In this conversation, Alex and Mohit discuss the current state of the crude oil market as they enter 2026. They cover various macroeconomic factors, including the impact of geopolitical events in Venezuela and Iran, the dynamics of US production, and the overall supply and demand signals in the market. The discussion highlights the complexities of the oil market and the potential for volatility in the coming months, driven by both geopolitical tensions and market psychology.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

02:24 Venezuela's Impact on Crude Supply

07:52 Geopolitical Risks and Global Market Dynamics

12:56 Iran's Role in the Oil Market

14:26 US Producer Strategies and Market Psychology

20:07 Supply Overhang and Inventory Dynamics

25:39 Future Outlook and Market Volatility

Energy and commodity markets don’t reward guesswork. Mobius Risk Group helps organizations navigate volatility with disciplined analysis, structured risk management, and market-driven strategy. Explore our insights and solutions at mobiusriskgroup.com.

Find the full show notes here.

In this episode of The Energy Desk from Mobius Risk Group, hosts Alex Melvin, Daron Bertillion, and Mohit Arora discuss the recent volatility in the energy markets, driven by the Middle East conflicts, specifically between Iran and Israel, and the subsequent U.S. strikes. They also examine the impaasizstrategies, emphons, and client , market condition trade volumesolitical events ct of these geoping the importance of preparedness and timely execution in a volatile market environment.

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Alex hosts a discussion with Lisa Huff and Dan Morrison about the intersections between Bitcoin mining and the energy sector, covering topics such as the use of energy assets for Bitcoin mining, the challenges and opportunities for energy companies, and the potential future of Bitcoin as a global financial system. They discuss the potential for integrating Bitcoin mining into energy operations and the implications for energy consumption and grid infrastructure.

For more information on this episode, visit the Mobius site here.

Peter Cork, an esteemed Australian robotics expert, joins the Energy Desk to discuss the evolution of robotics from the 1980s to the present day. The conversation covers a wide range of topics, including early industrial robots, the integration of AI, field applications in mining and agriculture, and the potential future of humanoid robots in various industries.

Find additional research and resources in the show notes.

Samantha Hartke, head of market analysis for the Americas at Vortexa, discusses recent developments in global markets, focusing on OPEC production changes, the impact of sanctions on oil flow dynamics, and shifts in demand, especially in Asia. She also touches on the effects of new infrastructure like the TMX pipeline and broader trends in LNG and petrochemical markets.