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In this episode, Alex Melvin is joined by Sarah Blome to discuss the complexities of global crude oil markets with guest Sarah Bloom. The conversation covers the impact of different crude grades on stakeholders and the implications of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. They delve into the nuances of U.S. refining capabilities, pipeline infrastructure, and the challenges facing U.S. crude production. Additionally, insights are provided on potential changes in global supply chains and tariffs that could affect the U.S. energy landscape.

Energy markets begin the new year with swift changes to weather, supplies, and economic stimulus. 

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Find the full show notes and research behind the episode here.

In this episode of the Energy Desk, hosts discuss the pre-Christmas market rally, notably for natural gas, despite warmer-than-expected weather forecasts. They discuss the recent increase in natural gas prices, comparing the current January 25 contract to earlier periods. Factors such as LNG infrastructure delays, additional supply from the Corpus Christi area, and global demand shifts are examined. The hosts touch on the DOE's LNG review, highlighting potential economic and environmental impacts and the effects on U.S. consumers. They also explore global crude oil demand, particularly in China, and the implications of shifting production and export strategies. Additionally, the podcast covers NERC's long-term reliability assessment, focusing on increasing U.S. demand driven by industrial growth and population migration. The episode concludes with discussions on market liquidity around the holidays and anticipations for early 2025.

00:00 Pre-Christmas Energy Market Overview

00:12 Natural Gas Market Rally

02:33 LNG Infrastructure and Market Impact

05:44 Regulatory Updates and DOE Review

09:32 Global Energy Demand and Supply Dynamics

16:47 NERC's 2024 Reliability Assessment

23:13 Crude Oil Market Analysis

26:33 Speculative Positioning and Market Sentiment

36:40 Liquidity Risks and Year-End Market Movements

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This discussion examines the current geopolitical dynamics and their impact on energy markets. Key points include the rapid developments in Syria, the fall of the Assad regime, and the implications for international actors, including the US, Russia, and regional forces. The Iraq-Kurdistan pipeline dispute and its potential effects on negotiations are covered. Additionally, the conversation highlights the US-Russia tensions over Ukraine and Syria. OPEC's revised global oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are analyzed in light of recent geopolitical shifts. The US-Canada energy trade discussions and contrasting perspectives from Ontario and Alberta premiers are explored. The script also includes an analysis of natural gas storage reports and the effects of weather-dependent energy production in the US and Europe.

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In this episode, we return from a hiatus to discuss the latest developments in the oil market, particularly focusing on recent OPEC decisions, global oil production data, and implications. The conversation also delves into U.S. natural gas market dynamics, European weather impacts on energy supplies, the ongoing situation in Syria, and the political and economic destabilization in regions like Europe and South Korea. The episode wraps with a detailed discussion on U.S. nuclear build efficiency compared to other nations and its implications for future energy policies, especially regarding big tech's demand for new nuclear capacity.

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The episode covers various macroeconomic topics, including consumer and household loan defaults in the US, the state of the housing market, the employment landscape, and inflation trends. Discussions highlight an underlying weakness in the US economy, potential job report revisions, and rising loan delinquencies across household loan types. The episode also reviews the global economic situation, particularly the impact of a strong US dollar on energy markets, geopolitical tensions, and recessionary fears in Europe. Key insights on natural gas market volatility and weather pattern influences are discussed. Additionally, the conversation touches on China’s declining crude imports and refinery runs, and the implications of OPEC's future production increases.

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In this week's episode, hosts Alex and Zane dive into the complexities of OPEC and DOE reporting discrepancies, examining the implications of overproduction by key nations like Kazakhstan, Iraq, and UAE. They analyze the impact of recent currency movements, particularly the strengthening dollar, on energy markets and explore concerning trends in European gas markets amidst weather-driven demand shifts and reduced wind generation.

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New energy and trade priorities in the US, EU, and Asia after this week's election. 

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Dissecting new refinery capacity, U.S. production growth, Guyana's supply outlook, and the bearish natural gas markets start to winter '24-'25. 

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Dissecting potential effects of each presidential candidate's policies on the US' role in global energy markets. Plus, how power price volatility and seasonal resource constraints pass through to traditional energies like natural gas.