The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

An extra piece for you this week. I had planned to follow up on Dr John’s timely piece on oil and gas today, but it will have to wait.

We need to talk about bitcoin.

Since peaking at $126,000 in early October, the bitcoin price has been in freefall, and the declines have accelerated this year. Earlier in the week, it touched $60,000 - declines of over 50% from peak to trough. Today it sits at $67,000.

Call it what it is. It’s a bear market.

Here’s a 2-year chart so you can see the price action. All the gains of 2025 have been given back and we are back at 2024 levels.

Bitcoin has become a software proxy

My first observation is that bitcoin’s decline since October has coincided exactly with a brutal selloff in software stocks, even as hard assets - gold, silver, and other metals - have caught one heck of a bid.

Just a few years ago, hard assets had no value, it seemed. Forget land, mining, the real economy. It was all about digital, software, IP, trademarks. How things have changed.

This chart appeared in a WhatsApp group and I don’t know who made it to give credit, but the story is clear: Bitcoin has become a software proxy and vice versa.

The correlation is striking. As concerns around AI have hammered software more generally, bitcoin has followed.

Hardware plays within tech have held up Maybe they're next to be hit. That remains to be seen.

When the mainstream media calls the bottom - the next wave of bitcoin obituaries

The Financial Times, wrong about bitcoin since 2009, came out with its latest stupidity this week claiming that bitcoin is $69,000 overvalued.

Yesterday the Daily Mail joined the Retard Gang in telling us bitcoin will go to zero.

Remember: just as media frenzy often indicates the peak of a market, so does a media scrum at the bottom.

All we need is a high-profile article from the Economist and the lows will be in.

I get that some people don’t like bitcoin, and bitcoiners can be obnoxiously vocal when the price is rising, but nocoiners can be just as bad. The amount of people trolling me about bitcoin - cc-ing me into tweets telling me how badly it’s doing, slagging off Michael Saylor, sharing “going to zero” articles - has risen sharply.

The more evolved and widespread these narratives, the more people repeating them, the closer we are to an end.

On which note, here is a longer-term weekly chart of bitcoin. That weekly RSI is close to all-time lows. Doesn’t mean this is the end. But you get these kinds of sentiment extremes at the end of cycles, not at the beginning.

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Where we go from here

This is a bear market. Crypto winter is upon us once again. The trend is down.

But the trend will end. It always does.

Looking at the above charts, there’s a lot of price memory in the $50-70,000 range. Bitcoin spent much of 2021 and 2024 here. I expect $50,000 - or just below - to hold. I give that a more than 50% probability.

But it’s bitcoin. So anything is possible. A typical bitcoin monster correction would see us go all the way back to the 2022 lows at ~$15,000. I don’t see that as likely - especially as the preceding bull market wasn’t that mammoth - maybe 10% probability.

It’s also possible the lows are already in, but my gut tells me this bear market has a bit longer to play out. It’s not a short sharp correction like we saw in the spring of last year around the Tariff Tantrum ™, but more of a grinder. Corrections happen in price and time, and I feel this one has a few more twists to it, especially as markets generally are not quite as easy as they were a couple of months ago.

My outlook at the beginning of this year was that the S&P 500 would follow the typical trajectory of the second year of a US presidency - and that points to a rocky second and third quarter with a strong final quarter. That has implications for liquidity and sentiment more generally.

Bitcoin is the same technological genius creation it always was. It hasn’t changed. Only perception has changed, as it always does.

It has been repeatedly demonstrated that bitcoin is a volatile asset that goes to the extremities of both pessimism and optimism, that it is cyclical and that it crucifies hubris. Those cheering the bear market clearly haven’t learned.

Instead of celebrating, I urge the skeptical to take advantage of this bear market and use it to learn.

On which note, if you’re new to bitcoin, my 2014 book Bitcoin: the Future of Money? is a good place to start.

Bitcoin isn’t dead. It’s just going through a bear market. They happen.

What’s the story that takes bitcoin higher, then?

Remember: narrative follows price.

When the price starts rising, all sorts of reasons will get attached and the story will form. Just as now with the price falling, all sorts of bearish narratives have emerged. Quantum Computing is going to end it. Jeffrey Epstein hijacked it. The core devs have fallen out. Strategy (NASDAQ.MSTR) is going bust. Whatever.

It doesn’t matter what the story is. That will come. Price leads.

Quantum BS

When you go to a bitcoin conference, one thing that’s notable is just how intelligent, educated, informed and ambitious the participants are. There is not the proliferation of midwits that you might find on, for example, the FT payroll. The bitcoin community is super bright.

Do you think those involved haven’t thought about and prepared for Quantum computing and the threats it may or may not present? Of course they have.

Is bitcoin more likely to be ready to deal with the quantum computing threat than say SWIFT, the BBC, the NHS, or some bank?

And which is likely to cope with it better - a sector crammed full of genius computer scientists with their own capital at stake, or some institution run by a government?

If you actually had a computer capable of taking down bitcoin, there are much easier, more satisfying things to take out, such as the House of Commons email server.

Way more important than the actual threat of quantum computing is the perception of what that threat is, even if that perception is bogus. But, as I say, perceptions change, just as bull and bear market cycles do, and so will this narrative die except among the most ardent nocoiners.

Of course I would rather bitcoin was at $150,000. But I am not worried. I won’t like it if bitcoin goes to $50,000. I’ll like it even less if it goes to $15,000. But we have been here before, and we’ll likely be here again.

We know how this story ends.

A prediction for the record

Here it is: It may have to go lower first, but bitcoin will outperform precious metals over the next 18 months, and probably over the next 12.

Let’s mark the price: gold is $5,000. Silver is $78. Bitcoin is $67,000.

By the way, I advocate owning both: gold and bitcoin. So at this point I should really plug Charlie Morris’s BOLD, an ETF you can buy through your broker which owns both gold and bitcoin.

Until next time,

Dominic

Bitcoin: the Future of Money? by Dominic Frisby is available at all good bookstores.

I can’t tell you how many messages I am getting from people about silver.

Have I seen this video, read this article, looked at this data, listened to this podcast. JP Morgan is about to go bust, the paper markets are overwhelmed, the price is manipulated, China is setting the real price, this is a reset. And so on.

The problem with speculative manias, especially when silver is involved, is that enormous amounts of misinformation get spread, much of it about things you and I, as ordinary investors, can do nothing about.

Take it all with a pinch of salt is my advice.

What I find interesting is that similar amounts of misinformation are being spread about bitcoin. The price is being manipulated on the futures markets, Strategy is about to go bust, Michael Saylor is this, that and the other, and so on. It’s game over.

The only real difference is that one is in a bull market, which may or may not be over, and the other is in a bear market, which may or may not be over. Sentiment for both is at extremes, albeit at different ends of the investment spectrum.

During every crypto winter I’ve known, people start to give up on it. The future is no longer what it once was. The tech is flawed. It’s going to zero. It’s not real. It’s a scam invented by the CIA, Jeffrey Epstein, Elon Musk, take your pick.

Again, take it all with a pinch of salt.

Remember, neither situation is permanent.

There is a case for owning both, and I do in my portfolio.

I’d rather bitcoin was $150,000 and more, of course I would. But I’ll take a sportsman’s bet that, from current levels over the next 12 months, bitcoin will outperform gold, and probably silver.

I know some readers prefer tangible precious metals. Others prefer bitcoin. Both points of view are fine. Each to their own. But I’m an own-both guy. Over the past six months the disappointment in bitcoin has been more than offset by the gains in precious metals. In previous years the reverse has been true, and the reverse will be true again.

With the extraordinary accumulation of gold by central banks, the rising price, Triffin’s Dilemma, and de-dollarisation, I do think it is possible some kind of reset is coming as far as gold is concerned. The price does need to go much higher for it to overtake the dollar as central banks’ primary reserve asset. It has already overtaken US Treasuries.

But that does not mean silver is going to be remonetised. Silver’s monetary role was always as a medium of exchange, and we now live in a world where exchange is almost entirely digital. Yes, I would prefer to be paid in physical silver. There is something quite spiritual about being paid for a job in physical silver. But so what. Convenience wins.

Silver’s role as a store of wealth was minimal. That is where gold still has use.

Yes, silver has umpteen industrial uses. It is a critical metal and in short supply. A rising gold price will carry silver higher too, just as it has platinum in recent months. But I don’t buy the monetary reset arguments as far as silver is concerned.

I do get them about gold though.

Anyway, good Sunday to you.

This week I appeared on Geoff Norcott’s podcast. If you fancy a watch or a listen, here are links to Spotify and Apple podcasts.

If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend, whereever you are int he world, is The Pure Gold Company. More here.

ICYMI here is this week’s commentary

This coming week I’ll be looking at the tax loss trades and I am aiming to have more on oil as well.

Until next time

Dominic

Phew. I need to write about something else apart from silver and gold. But I have to look at the price action we have seen this week, and I will say this. It was violent. Extraordinary, even. But it wasn’t necessarily bearish.

Sharp sell-offs like those we saw on Friday and Monday are characteristic of bull markets. In bear markets, corrections are grinding and protracted. Selling pressure is persistent. Value erodes slowly amid deteriorating fundamentals.

Bull markets behave differently. They flush. Explosively.

Late entrants and overleveraged speculators get shaken out. Stops are tight. Everyone is climbing the wall of worry. When a correction comes, a cascade of stop losses gets triggered all at once. Hence the violence.

BTW the latest Atlas Pulse came out on Friday, as level-headed as always. It’s the best gold and silver newsletter out there, in my view. Get your copy here - it’s free.

This is not just a precious-metals phenomenon. It’s a broader market truism. I’ve seen it in equities, other commodities, you get it all the time in tech - especially bitcoin. Indeed the action we are seeing in bitcoin at the moment is typical of a bear market. The selling is grinding and relentless, rather than sharp and explosive.

What’s more the gold and silver miners behaved well, and in a way that is consistent with a bull market flush. Yes, they saw significant selling. But gold corrected 21% and silver 41%. GDX (the large mining companies) only corrected 19% and SIL (the large silvers) 24%. Most importantly, they recovered faster. You would not have got a bounce like that in a bear market.

The relative strength is telling. If this were a reversal, the miners would have sold off by more. They didn’t.

If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. More here.

What’s more, theh miners only need $4,000 gold and $50 silver to be highly profitable. But if higher prices are the new normal, then a lot of previously uneconomic mines - particularly the low-grade, bulk-tonnage in Canada - are going to become economic. Heck, even STLLR Gold (TSX.STLR) might work. I should probably delete that last sentence.

How the landscape has changed from a couple of years ago.

Such huge potential, but …

In other news, I sat through the Comstock Inc (AMEX:LODE) conference call yesterday. An hour of my life I won’t get back.

The asymmetric potential of this company remains enormous. But that call was a red flag bonanza.

With the silver story what it is, and a clear path for this company to become North America’s largest silver producer, this stock should be trading above $15.

I am rotating some of my gold and silver profits into oil and gas, as I think energy is next. I will have more on this very soon. I promise. But we need to talk gold and silver today, plus we have an update on top pick Metals Exploration (MTL.L)

I thought Monday was the top. Silver went from $100/oz to $115/oz over the weekend and then on Monday in US hours reversed and gave back all those gains. It looked like we were shaping up for an island reversal.

Here we are on Wednesday and, as I write, we are at $115 again.

This is one strong market.

If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.

Let’s all do the Randolph?

I have a friend. We’ll call him Randolph (which I read means “”wolf shield” - cool, huh?). He’s about 30 and he works in the City, as a quant analyst or something. After some extensive research, a few months back he put 95% of his entire portfolio into a silver mining company by the name of Hycroft Mining (NASDAQ.HYMC). It was $5.

Bear in mind, he has no real estate, so to put 95% of his entire portfolio into something can’t be that far off 95% of his entire net worth.

The research he’d done into both silver and, specifically, into the situation that was Hycroft, and the trust he had in his own judgment, gave him the conviction he needed to go for it.

Today the stock is trading at $50. He’s 10xd his money.

Randolph was talking to me about the company in December when it was $13. I resisted. I got so many ideas thrown at me, I can’t buy them all and I already had my silver exposure via Sierra Madre (SM.V) which was going and continues to go great guns. (It has almost tripled since December so it’s not like I can complain).

But you always hear about the ones you should have bought. The ones you were tipped that then collapsed - they get forgotten very quickly.

So good for Randolph. Events have proved him right. You’ve got to be in it, to win it, and all that.

But what if events had gone against him? What if silver had turned down 30%? He’d have been up the proverbial, and some.

But it didn’t and he’s been proved right.

My buddy Simon Catt, by the way, who was in Hycroft even before Randolph, thinks Hycroft can go up another 10x from here.

He could be right. I am just too cautious about buying things that have moved this much. Maybe I shouldn’t be. I didn’t buy bitcoin at $10 because it had just 10xd.

But, as I say, you only remember the ones that went up.The price is always there to remind you and eat away at you.

The ones you didn’t buy that collapsed - the gazillion of shitcoins and shitcos I’ve avoided over the years - I’ve no idea what they even are. I should put them all on a spreadsheet, calculate how much I’ve saved by avoiding them and use the money I haven’t lost to buy myself a new frock.

I don’t advocate doing what Randolph did because there is so much that can go wrong.

When it does go wrong, the person who advocated it will get the blame as much as the person who actually did it. More importantly, it’s a poor way to manage risk

But I’ve done something similar myself. And ballsy bets can and do work - when you get them right.

But they are better done when young I’d say. If they do go wrong, you still have plenty of time to recover.

My mate Swen Lorentz, who writes the exemplary Undervalued Shares says he sees it among his readers. “Many went from 10k to 100k and then from 100k to 1m with ballsy bets. Thereafter things can become more normal.”

The problem is when you ‘re wrong.

Position sizing - especially when using leverage - is everything.

Charlie Morris’s monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there. Get your copy here. No pay nada.

Where you need to be with silver right now

With all the above in mind, here is where I think you need to be with silver. The easy money has been made. In the miners and leveraged silver plays, the asymmetry is no longer what it was.Yes, I can see a bananas scenario in which the calls of the most ardent silver bulls prove true and silver goes to $300/oz or even $700/oz. Unlikely, though possible. In such a scenario, Hycroft and Sierra Madre and many other silver miners besides will be 10 baggers and more, even from today’s prices.

But silver could just as easily top at $125, and go back to $25.The more elevated a price gets the more vulnerable that market becomes. It’s only a month ago that silver was $50 and that felt high.

Many will feel differently and want to be all in. Animal spirits and all that. But Auntie Dominic says you should be in a position with speculative silver plays, where you now have your original investment off the table, and have banked some profit.

The rest you can let run, in case those higher prices do actually come into play.

Every time we feel at a point of extremity take a little bit more off the table.

But you do not want to be in a state where this winning position could still turn into a loss.

There is a bullet-proof vest available to you. You may as well put it on.

We need to look at Metals Exploration (MTL.L)

With all sorts of rumours about physical shortages of silver, for your Sunday thought piece today, I spoke to precious metals dealer Joshua Saul to try and find out what is really happening in the metals markets.

Joshua Saul has been dealing gold and silver bullion for 20 years. He’s never seen anything like what’s happening now.

His key points: silver is catching up from decades of undervaluation. The gold-silver ratio historically sat at 15:1. In recent years it hit 100:1. That’s not a price quirk - it’s a structural anomaly that’s now correcting.

Supply can't keep up. Most silver comes as a byproduct of other mining, so production can't respond quickly to price spikes. Industrial demand is surging (solar, EVs, data centres). Mints are sold out. China's quietly accumulating. Physical premiums are spiking globally

The Pure Gold Company has metal, but only because they have large contractual commitments with the Royal Mint, but he’s clear - this is unprecedented. Even 2008 didn’t look like this.

Find out more about the Pure Gold Company, here.

NB: I was trying out a new camera and I know it looks crap. Won’t happen again.

Meanwhile, ICYMI, here is this week’s commentary.

Until next time,

Dominic

PS Let me give my buddy Charlie a plug. His monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there. Get your copy here. No pay nada.

This has been for ages one of those things that has been going to happen that never actually happens.

But on Monday there were signs it is actually going to happen.

I’m talking about some kind of financial crisis in Japan, whether in its currency, its debt markets or a bit of both. Because it’s so far away, we tend to overlook in Western Europe what a big deal Japan is: but it’s the world’s 4th largest economy - only the US, China and Germany have greater GDP.

But its debt-to-GDP is 230% - 4 times Germany’s (~63%), more than double the UK’s (100%) and almost double the US’s (~124%). But it has sustained these “unsustainable” levels for so long it’s now normal. Shorting the yen has been the great widow maker.

In addition to roughly $10 trillion of government debt, Japan also carries around $8 trillion of non-financial sector debt, including corporate and household borrowing. This is not new. What may be new is the market’s willingness to continue absorbing it at the margin.

On Monday Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election for February 8th, seeking a stronger mandate for her coalition government. She has high approval ratings, I read, and is looking to capitalise on them, restoring the Liberal Democratic Party's majority in the powerful lower house. Even so, though she is favourite, this is also a gamble.

If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.

Takaichi will run on a platform of more stimulus. The worry is how she “pays” for her proposed cuts to food taxes. It’s not totally unlike the Liz Truss situation, when she proposed tax cuts without material cuts to spending.

How much is enough?

I just don’t get it with governments. Something doesn’t have the desired effect. Instead of stopping and reassessing, they do more. Ooh, this petrol isn’t putting out the fire. Let’s add more petrol.

But the result of her announcement was that Japanese borrowing costs rose sharply to all-time highs (again). 30-year yields posted their biggest daily jump since 2003, and 10-year yields surged 19 basis points. Not quite such a record breaking rise but the sharpest since 2022.

Japan’s bond market, long regarded as the safest and dullest corner of global finance, is suddenly being treated as risky. Compounding the problem is the fact that Japanese insurers, historically reliable buyers of long-dated bonds when yields rose, have become net sellers. That removes a key stabilising force.

Charlie Morris monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there. Get your copy here. No pay nada.

At some point the Bank of Japan may step in and buy bonds to calm things down. That’s what usually happens. The risk, however, is that Japan is deemed even more fiscally permissive, the yen weakens further, and inflationary pressures stoke.

If the yen carry trade unravels - that is the financial world borrowing Japanese yen at low rates and using the money to invest elsewhere - then everything unravels, and we get the 2020s version of 2008. It’s been threatening to happen a long time, but it never quite does. But hot money - aka liquidity - will get sucked out of everything from gold and silver to the stock market to the bond markets to bitcoin, and the world gets a massive margin call.

The bottom line is that this raises the risk of more global market volatility. If Japan, long the calmest corner of global finance, becomes unstable, everything priced on the assumption of low and stable interest rates needs to repice. Risk-on flips to risk-off. Speculative assets get hit.

Add all the Greenland stuff to the mix and everything looks very shaky all of a sudden.

Periods like this are not necessarily about bold calls. They’re about deciding where you refuse to be sloppy. So I am taking some action.

If the stories are to be believed, and the first casualty of war is truth and all that, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro sent some 3.6 million ounces of gold - $16 billion in today’s money - to Switzerland before 2017, when the EU brought sanctions against Venezuela.

Switzerland last week froze his accounts and the accounts of some 36 others with close ties. We don’t know how much money he had in them, or how many accounts there were, but the figure doing the rounds is $10 billion.

It has also emerged that Tether has been freezing “wallets identified as being involved in the Venezuelan oil trade.” As much as 80% of Petroleos de Venezuela’s oil revenue is believed to be transacted in tether. This could be a total figure in the billions too.

We also know that Venezuela was mining bitcoin for many years - when the price was a lot lower - but we don’t know what they did with the coins. Did they fall into Maduro’s hands? Were they sold? Were they held?

The number doing the rounds here that it owns 600,000 BTC (~$60 billion). That would put Venezuela up there with Michael Saylor and Strategy. It’s three times the 198,000 coins the US government itself is said to own.

There’s a seed phrase I’d like to know. Where are the keys, I wonder?

And where did the proceeds of Venezuela’s enormous oil, gold and other natural resource exports end up, exactly? Only some of them we know.

At this point we remind you that the Venezuelan currency itself - the bolivar - collapsed in hyperinflation and has little to no value. Beware national currencies, particularly under socialist regimes. They don’t last.

There are several things I take away from all of this.

First, the US dollar - whether via SWIFT or stablecoin - remains the number one international currency of choice, even for America’s enemies.

Second, tether and other US dollar stablecoins might be convenient - you don’t have to use banks - but Tether will do what the US government tells it to do, and if the government wants your assets frozen, Tether will freeze them.

Stablecoins, then, have a central point of failure. If someone can freeze them, they are not sovereign. And just as the US froze Russian US dollar assets after its invasion of Ukraine, so can and will it freeze the stablecoin assets of its enemies too.

What did that 2022 freezing of Russian assets trigger? The mother of all bull markets in gold, and then silver and miners.

What will this freezing trigger? A bull market in bitcoin. Possibly. Likely.

It’s already creeping back up.

While the US does its geo-political, strategic, critical minerals thing, quaint old Western Europe is sinking deeper into higher taxes and - I’m sure they’re coming eventually - capital controls. In fact, capital controls already exist in effect, banks are so heavily regulated and limiting of what you can send and to whom.

The value of permissionless, international money just went up.

You need to own money that they can’t touch, whether by seizure or debasement.

Meanwhile …

Gold and silver continue to go bananas - the latter especially.

So many roads lead to gold at the moment, it’s hard to see when this stops.

The inevitable debasement of national currencies off the back of uncontrollable government spending. Gold. Dedollarisation. Gold. Increasing geo-political uncertainty - Iran, Venezuela. Gold. Reshoring of US industry - highly inflationary. Gold. Revaluation of US gold holdings. Gold. Looming crisis from Japan as yields spike. Gold. China’s ambitions for its currency and trade. Gold. Triffin’s dilemma. Gold. AI putting everyone out of work leading to more money printing. Gold. Declining competence of and as a result faith in institutions worldwide. Gold.

The dollar has now fallen to a 40% share of global central bank reserves, while gold is now at 30% on the back of its higher price and central bank accumulation. (Note currency and reserves are not the same).

We are in a major capital rotational event the like of which occurs only every few decades.

Typical portfolios are still underweight gold.

If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.

Own both

As regular readers will know, I advocate owning both bitcoin and gold. The two assets have many similarities in that they are non-government, independent money. But the fundamental difference is that one is physical and one is digital.

Both have their uses, and I have little patience with this notion that one must choose one or the other.

In that regard, as with many others, my worldview is aligned with that of Charlie Morris (whose newsletters I urge you to subscribe to. There are lots of free options, including Atlas Pulse, which I love). Remember many years ago Charlie was calling for $7,000 gold by the end of this decade and many thought he was dotty. His call is looking perfectly sensible now, which it was - and which he is.

Charlie previously managed a multi-billion-dollar fund for HSBC, before going solo. Aside from his newsletter, one his main endeavours has been BOLD, and he has been trying to get it listed for years. But the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is retarded.

BOLD is a fund you can buy through a broker which is 75% gold and 25% bitcoin - all properly audited and backed, of course, with institutional-grade custody.

Over the past five years, BOLD has returned 186%, while bitcoin has returned 202%, gold 128%, and equities 77%. The average return of bitcoin and gold together was 165%, yet BOLD was 21% ahead. This is because every month Charlie rebalances the portfolio, effectively buying more of whichever is the weaker asset to retain that 75:25 ratio. This act of rebalancing both strips out the volatility and increases the gains.

Since Charlie first conceived of it in 2017, over pretty much any timeframe, BOLD (in blue) has beaten everything.

Since its listing in Europe in 2022 BOLD has returned 123% since launch (in GBP to end 2025 including fees) compared to 111% for bitcoin and 113% for gold.

It would have been nice to have been able to enjoy these gains in the UK. Thank goodness the FCA has protected us from them.

Not for much longer.

I was delighted to be at the London Stock Exchange yesterday to see the listing of this product which delivers “bitcoin-like returns with the lesser volatility of gold.”

Congratulations, Charlie, for finally getting this listed. I wish you every success.

Now we can actually invest.

Obviously, if gold AND bitcoin both turn down, BOLD will suffer. But this is a classic buy-and-forget product, perfect for the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. You can own it in your pension, your ISA and it should become a mainstay of any portfolio.

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP, BOLD, has the ticker LSE:BOLD.

I am a buyer.

PS some brokers such as AJ Bellend have only made this product available to pro investors. The broker I use is Interactive Investor, who are pretty good about getting these kinds of things live. If you open an account via this link you get a year’s free. I am just on the phone to them now to get this listed.

Disclaimer:

The Flying Frisby is not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other regulatory body as a financial advisor. Therefore, any information provided in this newsletter does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is solely an expression of opinion. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor, if you have any doubts. Remember, markets can both rise and fall, especially in the case of small and mid-cap stocks. I am not aware of your individual financial circumstances, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

It’s that time of year again.

What’s going to happen? What does the future hold?

We all want to know.

Knowing what’s going to happen makes you feel better.

NostreDominic is here to tell you.

Here are 19 predictions for 2026

1. Gold Breaks $5,000

Gold doesn’t quite have the year it had in 2025, but it has a good year nonetheless and rises above $5,000/oz

On which note: Charlie Morris’s monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there. Get your copy here. No pay nada.

2. S&P 500 Frustration

The S&P500 will spend much of 2026 in a frustrating range trade with a couple of nasty pullbacks. We see an interim peak in April-May, followed by a weak summer, but a strong final quarter means we end the year with a 10-15% gain.

The problem of disproportionately few stocks (41 is it?) being responsible for most of the gains remains.

3. Inflation Finds New Forms

Inflation doesn’t die, it mutates. Headline inflation looks reasonably controlled (by recent standards), enabling leaders to declare that it is controlled or some other BS. Despite this “victory”, inflation finds other ways to rob you.

4. Bitcoin Hits $150,000

Bitcoin has a good year. With escalating geo-political conflict, as well as capital controls and tax grabs, more and more people wake up to the value of permissionless, apolitical currency. Falling trust in fiat - never mind government institutions - becomes more culturally entrenched. Bitcoin goes to $150,000.

5. Starmer Survives (Just)

Prime Minister Keir Starmer manages another year. His position gets even more precarious after a bad showing in the May local elections, but it is still only 2026 and the next General Election is not till 2029. Too early to oust him just yet.

6. Government Spending: The Unstoppable Force

Government spending keeps on increasing. Even if they wanted to, they just can’t stop it.

Western Europe continues, therefore, its great march on the road to serfdom

7. But No Sovereign Debt Crisis

Despite the mathematics verging on the impossible, government debt continues to outpace GDP (it has grown at three times the pace this century) but the inevitable sovereign debt crisis that is coming to the UK, Western Europe and perhaps even the US, is somehow averted.

By saying it won’t happen, it will happen. I know it.

8. British Stocks Shine Despite Economic Stagnation

Britain’s economy continues to stagnate, but British stocks do well. Rather like Japan circa 2015, the valuations are so cheap that mergers and acquisitions are inevitable. Foreign money takes advantage.

9. Oil Recovers

Oil, currently lagging metals, begins to turn around. Brent crude stays above $55 and flirts with $80 a barrel.

10. UK Energy Costs Stay Elevated

Energy costs in the UK remain high because Millibrain. Limited growth is the result.

If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.

11. Critical Minerals Boom

I would venture that the decision to overthrow Venezuelan President Maduro was as much about critical minerals - so-called strategic metals et al - and China’s chokehold on them, as it was oil and gas, narco-terrorism, Russian drones and liberating the poor suffering people.

To the US’s credit it is trying to put the China chokehold problem right. The UK and Europe are hopeless. But this process, especially re-shoring industry, is highly inflationary, hence my comment about inflation finding new forms.

It is a good year to be invested in both industrial and critical minerals, and the related stocks end the year considerably higher than when they began.

This is something I’ll be looking at a lot next year

12. Emerging Markets Rally

Emerging markets have a good year. Commodities, innit.

13. The Pound Weakens A Bit

The pound gradually weakens against the US dollar. High is $1.37, low is $1.25. Or thereabouts.

14. Silver. Triple Digits.

Silver goes above $100. There I’ve said it. Now watch it crash.

15. AI-Powered Government Overreach

A highly worrying development. Government Blob bodies, such as Ofcom and HMRC in the UK (though this problem is global), make increasing use of AI to make their processes more efficient. This enables them in a really bad way.

This is already happening. In 2026 people start to wake up to the fact.

I like AI. But it enables Big Bureaucracy. Beware.

16. UK Property: More Stagnation

The stagnation, particularly at the upper end of the market, continues. And why wouldn’t it? Moving is too expensive.

While nominal prices might be flat or slightly up, real prices are down, liquidity is poor, transactions fall.

17. Rents Stay Elevated

Because so many now prefer to rent so they don’t have to pay moving taxes, and because the game is now over for amateur landlords, who continue to exit the market due to the increased cost of regulations, rents stay elevated.

18. Official Reassurance = The Biggest Mistake

The biggest mistake of 2026, as with every year, will be trusting official reassurance. Governments and central banks remain behind the curve. Markets lead, policymakers follow. The crisis won’t come from what they warn us about, but from something they’ve missed.

19. Your Bruce-y Bonus Sports Prediction

Arsenal win the League. West Ham, Burnley and Wolves all get relegated.

Have a wonderful 2026. Let’s hope as with last year I’m wrong about everything and we make a potload of dosh.

Until next time

Dominic

Happy New Year to you.

This time last year I did something I’d never done before, which was to publish my New Year’s resolutions.

I was nervous about doing it because, despite constantly putting stuff out on the internet, I’m actually quite private about some things, and it made me feel quite vulnerable publishing them.

However, publicly stating goals pushes you to achieve them. You’re making yourself accountable, so you’re more likely to deliver. It also clarifies what you’re actually looking for, and solidifies goals beyond abstract ideas. It can also prompt those reading them to help in some way, whether through advice, introductions or collaboration.

I’m glad I did it, and I’m sure it helped me achieve a lot of those goals.

Here they are, in case of interest:

The health, body and mind stuff I pretty much succeeded at - I stayed fit, I drank even less (to the point of barely drinking at all), my fasting fell by the wayside and so my weight has crept up a little. I hit my reading target - just - though really I should read a lot more.

Money was also a goal hit with gold, silver and most Flying Frisby tips all performing well (though let’s be honest last year was a bonanza year for pretty much everyone except bitcoin maximalists).

On the love and family side of things, I think I did ok - you’ll have to ask my kids and mother if I have been a good father/son. My other big target of settling down with a certain Miss Downing was an abject failure, which is probably for the best all things considered, and I am grateful to my Guardian Angel for stepping in there.

On the work and career front I should consider the year a success. The live shows were brilliant, sold out, we have a lot of dates in for the spring.

The book has also done well. It’s coming out in the US next year.

Above all I have got Kisses on a Postcard moving forward, which was the most important target of the year.

The two big failures were that I didn’t finish two writing projects I had in mind - my Gilbert and Sullivan and Peasants Revolt musicals - nor did I do many gigs in the US or practice my uke every day, but I probably asked a bit too much of myself.

All in all I should consider 2025 an annus perhaps not quite mirabilis, but certainly bonus, prosperus, felix et secundus - and be very grateful for it

So what are my goals this year?

They’re not unlike last year.

Love and Family

* Be a good dad to Samuel, Eliza, Lola and Ferdie, and to daughter-in-law, Millie.

* Be a good grandad to Cecilia.

* Be a good son to my mum.

* Get a girlfriend.

Kisses on a Postcard

* Get the script as good as it can possibly be (happening as we speak).

* Get a s**t hot director and cast

* Raise 10 million quid

* Shoot the next great musical.

Easy!

Money

Same as last year. Invest well and grow my net worth - and the net worth of Flying Frisby readers - by at least 20%. I beat that by some margin in 2025 in what, looking back, was a gift of a year thanks to gold, silver and the miners.

If you live in the Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.

Hard to see things being as easy in 2026, but I’ve got my eye on a few things. I will keep you very much in the loop.

You know you should.

Work & Career - Laughter, Acclaim, Opportunity

* Grow the Flying Frisby by 20% in subscribers and revenue. Break into the Top 50. (Currently 60th)

* Comedy - keep storming the gigs, land more tour dates in bigger venues selling more tickets

* Promote The Secret History of Gold really well in the US when it launches in May

* Build my online presence as both comic and commentator - I’ve got a specific plan for this

* Keep writing songs and material, get better at the uke and make a start on guitar

Health, Body & Mind

I’m 76kg (12 stone/167lb). My weight has crept up these last few months, mainly since my habit of fasting has fallen by the wayside. I hit 67kg (10 ½ stone, 147lb) at one point in 2024 leading to several interventions from friends telling me I looked like a lesbian Gary Lineker. Maybe. But I felt great. I reckon my ideal weight is 72kg (11st 7, 160lb). So get there and stay there. Which means:

* Fasting more regularly

* Weights two or three times a week

* Something aerobic two or three times a week

* Daily stretching - dead hangs, pelvic floors, neck exercises

* Stay off the booze

* Eat more protein and starve that sweet tooth

* Play more racket sports (good for the brain apparently). More tennis and table tennis, get into padel and pickleball.

PLUS

* Morning breathing practice and regular meditation/prayer

* Read another 15 books

Wish me luck!

What about you - what are your goals for the year? Stick them in the comments if you fancy making yourself accountable too

In the meantime, let me wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous 2026.

I’ll be back mid-week with my annual predictions piece.

Until next time,

Dominic

PS I was planning to take Christmas and New Year off. Never mind.

PPS The tax loss trade is now positioned and ready to go. Take a look.

Good Sunday to you,

Before we begin, let me flag this week’s commentary.

This a trade with a remarkably successful hit rate, a clear timescale and a relatively easy risk to manage - you know pretty quickly if it isn’t working. 8 of last year’s 9 ideas worked. By my reckoning you will find the biggest bargains of the year tomorrow, Monday December 22, and Tuesday December 23. So take a look:

Right, so today I am marking my own homework.

Every year, as old timer’s will know, I like to offer some predictions for the year ahead - usually 10, but with inflation being what it is, it ends up higher.

Today we look back and see how I did.

The usual disclaimers apply - the more outlandish the prediction, the more entertaining - so the more likely I am to make it. But the less likely it is to actually happen. I try to strike a balance …

As events change, so do opinions. Process is gradual. But when you jump a year, with no scope to revise as events turn in a different direction, quoted out of context and with the benefit of hindsight, predictions can look really, really stupid. Don’t judge me, bro.

I often find that the worse my predictions, the better my portfolio performs, which is odd, but there you go.

If you want to read last year’s piece in full, it’s here. But I’ll quote quite copiously below.

A reminder of the scoring system: 2 points for a direct hit, 1 for a quite good, 0 for a miss, and -1 for an epic fail, giving me a maximum of 30 and a minimum of -10.

How did I do? Let’s find out.

1. The long overdue correction in the UK housing market finally begins.

You can read my reasoning here, but it boiled down to: richer people being net sellers as they leave the UK, few foreign buyers, fewer buyers more generally because of high moving costs (Stamp Duty etc), little bullish sentiment in the economy meaning a reluctance to borrow and invest and the 18-year-property cycle turning down.

What actually happened is by no means clearcut, but I’ll try and summarise.

Price growth and transaction volume were relatively high in the first 3 months, until Stamp Duty changes came into effect in April, after which the market became “subdued”. Overall, the north saw some increase, while London fell 2.4% in the year to October. Average growth was 1.7%, which is some 2% below official inflation rates - real inflation is of course much higher - meaning there have been price falls in real terms. This is even with the Bank of England bringing rates down, thereby enabling more money to enter the market via increased borrowing.Overall, transactions volumes increased by 9% on 2024, to get back in line with the 10-year average, though there is a very different story at the upper end of the market.

The housing market has big problems, especially in the south, but it hasn’t cratered - though nor has it soared. I’m giving myself 1 point.

2. Keir Starmer survives

Everyone thought he was toast this time last year - and he is - but my argument that “it’s too early for Labour MPs, worrying about their seats, to give him the shove” prevailed. 2 points.

3. Gold hits $3,000.

And the rest. It’s $4,300 as I write and going higher. I was too conservative. 1 point.

BTW. If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.

4. Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) becomes a top 100 company by market cap.

Oops. When Strategy hit $450 in July, its market cap would have been around $130 billion, making it perhaps a top 300 company but not a top 100. It would have needed to get above about $250 billion to make the cut.

And since then it has the skids so badly it’s now a tax loss opportunity.

-1.

5. Bitcoin goes to $200,000 then crashes

I got the crash bit right. Sort of. $126k was the high, having begun the year at $91k. Today it’s $88k. 0 points.

6. Sterling has big problems

Nope. It’s had a good year. -1.

7. X thrives, Blue Sky dies, Blogging Blue Skies

Well sort of. X saw strong numbers growth in the first part of the year, but these have tailed off. It is now a key place to go for breaking news and a leading news app, but by no means the Governor. The exodus to Blue Sky has slowed, but BS (LOL) is still growing albeit at a much slower rate. Blogging, as evidenced by Substack, is thriving. I’ll give myself 1 point.

8. The S&P500 Rises 10%

15% actually. We predicted a decent year, despite year 1 of the electoral cycle tending to be the weakest. 1 point. Do I get 2? Nah.

9. Oil ranges.

Oil would neither crater nor moonshot, we argued. We saw a range of $60-90. Its actually been $55-80. 1 point.

10. Small Caps Thrive

The Russell 2000 has had a good year - rising 12% - but the large caps are still winning. 1 point.

11. The US Dollar Index breaks out to 20-year highs.

Oops. I was looking for a high around 117 in the US$ index. It didn’t get above 110. It fell! -1

12. The BRICS don’t come out with a proper US dollar alternative … yet

Everyone says it’s coming, but it never actually does. 2 points.

13. Silver disappoints … as always

$33 is the high, $22 the low, I said. Ha! $28 was the low, and the high - $68. To be fair to myself, I said multiple times it was going to $50 and if it gets above there it goes to $90+, but the call was still an epic fail.

Irony: silver has been a huge winner for readers this year and our pick, Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (SM.V), has been a joy to own. From 45c north of $1.50 :(

I still get -1 though.

14. Despite all the crap, the world becomes a better place to live.

We live longer, we eat better, tech keeps improving things. We advance. AI makes us more productive and betters living standards.

It’s so obvious I can’t believe I even said it. I’ll give myself a point, but not 2.

15. Your Bruce-y bonus sports prediction.

Liverpool win the league. Ipswich, Southampton, and Leicester all go down.

Bullseye. I should take up sports betting. 2 points.

I don’t actually follow football any more, but one of my son’s told me that’s what would happen.

So, overall, a very poor showing for the DF Predictions, possibly my poorest year ever: totalling a measly 7 points.

And, as always seems to be case, a much better year for my portfolio of companies.

Here’s hoping I get all next year’s predictions similarly wrong.

I’ll be making those early next year - so look out for that.

Thank you so much for being a subscriber to the Flying Frisby. I wish you and your family a very happy Christmas. Don’t eat too much, go easy on the booze, pray, sing, get plenty of exercise, avoid toxic people and the lurgy, and be thankful for the many good things there are in your life.

Once again - I urge you to take a look at the tax loss opportunities. Tomorrow and Tuesday are the buy days.

Here’s to a healthy, wealthy 2025.

Until next time,

Dominic

PS This Wednesday being Christmas Eve I almost certainly won’t be putting out any commentary.