The Football Analytics Show by The Power Rank and Ed Feng

SharpClarke, an NFL originator, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How he goes from watching every snap to a betting model (8:57). What drives the NFL spread market (15:11). The benefits of a mobile QB (22:31). A week 1 NFL bet (24:25). Green Bay (36:32). A surprising prediction for the 2023 NFL season (41:50). Model building by decorrelation from the market (46:00).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Spanky, a professional sports bettor and creator of the Bet Bash conference, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The reason for the Bet Bash conference (2:28). The definition and origin of the term beard (5:00). Key events at Bet Bash 2023 (18:48). College football betting (27:06). Billy Walters (31:50). The state of the union in sports betting (35:55). Tricking DraftKings (42:05)

I also really enjoyed talking with Spanky about how he's a World Champion in board game Twilight Struggle (47:38).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Edward Egros, a professor at Pepperdine University and co-host of BetQL Daily, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His work at NFL Next Gen Stats and working on NFL broadcasts (3:15). Next Gen insights on running backs (14:29). Next Gen insights on wide receivers (18:47). MLB rule changes (26:22). Strike out props (32:00). Surprise prediction for the 2023 NFL season (44:00). Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks (50:26).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Professor Adi Wyner of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania joins the show for a wide ranging conversations. He has a math degree from Yale University and PhD in Statistics from Stanford University. Highlights include: His first influence in sports analytics at Stanford (3:35). His opera singing career after graduate school (7:50). The optimal number of brackets to submit to a March Madness pool (12:53). Better baseball player projections (23:45).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Will Courchene, the founder of Data Golf, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: PGA, LIV merger (13:29). How the Data Golf predictions work (23:52). Top contenders to win the US Open (30:45). Scottie Scheffler and the randomness of putting (31:47). Brooks Koepka and the majors bump (35:30). The other golfer that excels at majors (42:10). Jon Rahm (47:10).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

How did professional bettors like Matthew Benham and Haralabos Voulgaris use analytics to win soccer matches? This episode discusses the key concept as told by Ryan O'Hanlon in his book Net Gains.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

John Sears, a special advisor to the Los Angeles Dodgers, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. John has a graduate degree from Stanford and has also worked for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Highlights include: His first experience with applied math (7:48). Working at the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis (12:32). The decision to go to grad school (19:00). The latest baseball data sets that John and the Dodgers are hiring quants to work on (26:09). The 2015 NBA draft with Philadelphia (33:48). Working with the Minnesota Timberwolves and match up problems (45:18). How to break into sports analytics (52:09).

The story about the 2015 NBA draft is an incredible lesson in data driven predictions, and I highly recommend starting at 33:48 and listening to the next seven minutes.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Interceptions play a critical role in football. However, randomness plays a big role, which makes these critical plays difficult to predict. This episode describes my research into how to predict interceptions. The narrative starts in football but then ventures into some ideas about skill vs luck from Michael Maubossian's book The Success Equation. Interceptions are also compared with three pointers in basketball.

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of Unexpected Points, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Are NFL teams getting smarter at drafting players? (3:00). Why it's harder to build a team (11:32). Houston and trading up for the 3rd pick (13:56). Arizona, trading down and trading back up (18:50). Why Philadelphia traded up one pick (22:00). Philadelphia and consensus big boards vs actual draft position (26:25). The problem with Jalen Carter, and it's not the legal issues (32:16). The teams with the best grades by Kevin's objective methods (34:55). How Kevin rates this QB class (38:17). A Will Levis comp (40:45). The teams with the worst draft grades (43:43). Detroit, their surprising draft grade and the NFC North market (48:55). How much does the draft matter in predicting the 2023 season? (57:25).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and senior writer for Football Guys, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The wildly overrated 1st round QB in the 2023 NFL draft (11:38). Baker Mayfield (17:50). The QB that might seem overrated but isn't (21:10). Anthony Richardson's development (28:57). How NFL players develop skills (35:25). The difference between college and the NFL (39:40). Talent vs hard work (42:16). Mental aspect of playing wide receiver, Kenny Golladay, Gabriel Davis (52:36).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast and get a premium episode every month:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics