The Football Analytics Show by The Power Rank and Ed Feng

To gauge NFL off season moves, let's look at the most important metrics for receivers and coverage players. This episode makes the case for yards per route run on offense, and suggests the symmetric quantity for coverage players. The predictability of these metrics and players like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Casey Hayward Jr. are also discussed.

Mark Scalley and Mike Craig, two professional sports betting partners, join the show to talk about getting accounts. Highlights include: Starting a partnership in 2009 (4:20). Getting accounts in 2009 (9:00). Getting accounts in 2022 (16:50, 44:44). The key to sports betting relationships (26:07). Is Twitter a good thing for sports betting? (36:00). Getting limited at sports books (46:54). Origination and why no one discussed it at Bet Bash (55:31).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Matt Courchene, the co-creator of Data Golf with his brother Will, joins the show to talk about predictive golf analytics. Matt describes how his tournament predictions work. This includes player ratings based on strokes gained as well as a more granular approach that separates a golfer's skill into off the tee, putting, etc. Matt describes his research into which of these shots are more predictive. Finally, Matt gives his thoughts on the 2022 U.S. Open at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts.

Kostya Medvedovsky joins the show to discuss DARKO, a well respected NBA player projection system. He begins with how a lawyer developed the data and math skills to develop DARKO. Then Kostya describes the two predictive systems that form the basis of DARKO, one of which was initially used in rocket science. Then he talks about how machine learning techniques combine these two factors. He uses Brandon Ingram of the New Orleans Pelicans as an example of how the system works. Finally, Kostya discusses the applications of DARKO to sports betting.

Matt Metcalf, the sports book director at Circa sports, describes his journey from sports book to professional bettor to the sports book at Circa. Matt takes us inside his head as he adjusts his college football ratings based on game results. This is the work that allows Circa to open the first college football spreads and totals on Sunday. He contrasts booking college football with the NFL. Matt also describes the role of analytics in his work, why Circa welcomes sharp sports bettor and the one thing he would change in the industry.

Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP), joins the show to talk about the 2022 NFL draft. He describes his year long process for watching film and evaluating hundreds of college players in creating the RSP. Matt talks about how Dak Prescott and others have helped him improve his process. While others talk about the intangibles for a player, Matt has a very specific definition for the It factor. He relates this It factor to improvisation music. The markets have Malik Willis as the favorite to be the top QB selected in the 2022 NFL draft, but Matt explains why he differs from this consensus.

Drew Dinsick, a sports bettor and co-host of NBC's Bet the Edge podcast, joins the show to talk about professional football and basketball. He describes how the NFL draft market has changed this year and a few bets that he likes. Drew talks about the top players at edge rusher and quarterback. Then Drew gets into his process for betting the NBA, which includes data from the markets and player performance models. He also has some fascinating insights into predicting totals in basketball.

Dr. Eric Eager, Head of Research, Development and Strategy at PFF, joins the show to discuss the NFL and the 2022 draft in particular. He talks about how he approaches betting the NFL draft from multiple perspectives. Then Eric breaks down the scenarios for the top three teams to pick: Jacksonville, Detroit and Houston. He also gives a few of his favorite bets on the 2022 NFL draft. Finally, we dig into NFL free agency season, and Eric describes the team he finds the most intriguing over the next few seasons.

Matthew Freedman, the Director of Content at FantasyPros and BettingPros, joins the show to talk about betting the NFL draft. Matthew talks about the primary tool that he uses to make bets and the best time to use this tool. He also encourages you to change your position when new information becomes available, and he provides examples from 2021. Finally, Matthew talks about his NFL draft bets for 2022.

George Chahrouri of PFF joins the show to break down NFL free agency. The conversation begins with quarterbacks, which includes Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns and Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. George then decides whether the Miami Dolphins in Tyreek Hill or the Las Vegas Raiders in Davante Adams got a better wide receiver. Finally, George identifies three NFL teams that had a great free agency campaign.