The Football Analytics Show by The Power Rank and Ed Feng

Live by the 3, die by the 3. Alabama likes to chuck it from the cheat seats. But will this prevent them from winning March Madness? Edward Egros breaks down head coach Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide for the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Part 1 looked at the difference between predictability and skill. For NBA players, 3 point shooting percentage is not predictive but a skill. In Part 2, Ed looks at the skill in 3 point shooting for college basketball teams. This leads to a discussion about using 3 point shooting percentage to evaluate the top teams that can win March Madness.

In college basketball, 3 point field goal percentage is not predictive. This means that a team like Baylor that shoots 44% from 3 will see regression to the college basketball average of 34%. However, this feels wrong, as 3 point shooting seems like a skill. In this episode, Ed Feng explains how to isolate skill from luck in 3 point shooting.

Edward Egros takes over hosting duties to interview Ed Feng, the usual host of The Football Analytics Show and founder of The Power Rank. Ed talks about the changes he has made in his algorithms during the pandemic, how he got into sports analytics and why context matters even more during this time. Then he gets into March Madness, and topics include the analytics and strategy behind how to win your pool. Finally, Ed and Edward debate the virtues of the game ending buzzer in basketball.

Adam Stanco, hoops expert and host of the Rejecting the Screen podcast, joins the show to talk college basketball. He tells us whether the numbers are right in having Gonzaga and Baylor as the two best teams in the nation. Then we talk Michigan and the NBA draft stock of Hunter Dickinson. Adam gives his thoughts on Duke and Kentucky before talking about other teams that could win the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor, joins the show to talk about the Super Bowl. He describes his NFL model and what it says about the spread for Tampa Bay vs Kansas City. Then he discusses his process for predicting player props and what his numbers say about the Super Bowl.

Matt Freedman of the Action Network, a fantasy sports expert, joins the show to talk about the Super Bowl and player prop bets. He gives his 3 top tips for how to approach the prop market, and then talks about a few bets that he likes. Then we talk about the game between Tampa Bay and Kansas City in terms of the spread and total. Finally, Matt tells us how he started doing an Ask Me Anything on Twitter every day.

Drew Dinsick, an NFL bettor who goes by Whale Capper on Twitter, joins the show to discuss the NFL. He describes how he uses his background in earthquake engineering to build an NFL predictive model, and how the inputs to the model have changed over the years. Then we get into the Conference Championship games. Tampa Bay visits Green Bay, and Drew lays out how the game will likely evolve. Buffalo visits Kansas City, and he identifies the injury that everyone should be talking about, not the one everyone is talking about. We end with a discussion of Mexican food, rocket science and closing line value.

Chris Andrews, the director of the sportsbook at the South Point Casino in Las Vegas, joins me to talk about the NFL. He describes how he sets the market, and how numbers play a role. Then we dig into the four Divisional Playoff games:

• Rams at Packers, and how injuries impact this game
• Ravens at Bills, and the impact of momentum
• Browns at Chiefs, and the Super Bowl prospects for the latter
• Bucs at Saints, and the hard to explain feeling about one team

We end with a discussion of poker, books and Winston Churchill.

Fabian Sommer, an NFL handicapper, joins the show to discuss the NFL Wild Card weekend. First, he describes this three part approach to evaluating games, the first of which involves analytics. Then he breaks down Rams at Hawks, Ravens at Titans and Browns at Steelers before giving another game with value. Throughout the conversation, he divides the contribution of an offense's success into quarterback vs coach and other players.