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Offense has surged in the 2020 NFL, as teams have averaged 50.8 points per game the first 6 weeks of the season. This is a significant increase from the 45.7 points per game in 2019. Host Ed Feng looks at how the markets have responded and whether the increased scoring will continue.
Spencer Hall of Moon Crew and the Shutdown Fullcast joins me to talk college football. He tells us about starting the blog Every Day Should Be Saturday, and how he approaches writing about college football. Spencer talks about whether Florida can make the leap onto the national stage in 2020 or whether the defense will continue to struggle. He then breaks down the titantic Georgia vs Alabama game. We end by talking westerns and backyard flames.
Bill Connelly of ESPN joins me to discuss college football analytics and the 2020 season. He describes his predictive model, which leads into a discussion of why these models are doing so well this season. He enlightens us on college football playoff, and the team that should get a look (but won't) in 2020. We touch on Oklahoma, Mississippi State, and Ohio State among other teams before ending with some enthusiasm for the US men's national team.
Josh Allen got the headlines after the Bills beat the Rams in week 3. But the underlying numbers suggest we should be paying more attention to Jared Goff. Host Ed Feng looks at Goff's success and how the Rams project for 2020.
Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight joins me to discuss the NFL. He describes his study receiver separation from defenders and what this means for receiver skill. Josh also breaks down the early season performance of Josh Allen and Drew Brees and what aspects are predictive of the future. We discuss Green Bay, Seattle and New England before Josh surprises everyone with his bold prediction for the 2020 season.
Atlanta may not have the best defense, but they have two assets that make them competitive in any NFL game. Host Ed Feng breaks down this team and their prospects for 2020.
Dr. Eric Eager, the Executive Director of Research and Development at Pro Football Focus (PFF), joins me to talk about football analytics and the NFL. He tells us how PFF assigns player grades, and then he gets into their newest research based on this data. Eric also gets into insights from the PFF QB Annual. Then we break down the NFL after week 1, which includes Green Bay, the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota, Philadelphia among other teams.
Is Carson Wentz skilled at not throwing interceptions? To answer this, we first acknowledge that past interception rate is a poor predictor of future interception rate. Then we ask about skill versus luck in interceptions. Finally, we consult a hidden variable that helps to predict interceptions and what this variable says about Wentz.
Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic joins the show to discuss his 32 NFL team previews. He tells us about his process for writing each of these analytics based previews. Then Sheil tells us his most overrated team and most intriguing, high variance team. Along the way, we discuss important trends in the NFL.
JJ Zachariason of FanDuel joins the show for a conversation on season long fantasy football analytics. He describes how he builds his models from the team to player level, and how his modeling uses science and art. JJ then explains whether his strategy to draft a QB in late rounds still holds or whether Lamar Jackson single handedly broke it. He ends with some basic tips to crush your fantasy football draft.
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